Wednesday, March29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Manzanita, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:39PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 4:14 AM PDT (11:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:14AMMoonset 8:53PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 304 Am Pdt Wed Mar 29 2017
.gale warning in effect until 11 am pdt this morning...
Today..S wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt...becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 13 ft dominant period 15 seconds. Rain early in the morning...then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..W wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves W 3 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 14 seconds...subsiding to 9 ft at 14 seconds after midnight.
Thu..NW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu night..NW wind 10 to 15 kt...easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves S 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri night..SW wind 5 to 10 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 2 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 11 ft.
Sun..NW wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 14 ft.
PZZ200 304 Am Pdt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A low pres center around 47n/129w this morning will continue to strengthen and move ne today. The low is expected to move ashore near vancouver island later this morning. A slow-moving frontal boundary will reside over the waters this morning before pushing onshore. A secondary cold front moves through the waters this evening. High pres builds tonight and Thu then holds over the waters Fri. A weak front will move across the waters Saturday morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manzanita, OR
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location: 45.7, -123.94     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 291048
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
345 am pdt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis A warm front will move east across the region this
morning, with a cold front following and moving southeast through sw
washington and NW oregon later today. This will turn the rain into
showers later today, then showers will conitnue into Thu as an upper
level trough of low pressure moves across the pacific nw. Fri is
expected to be dry as high pres moves across the region, then
chances for rain return for the weekend as the next system moves in.

Short term (today through Friday)... Moist isentropic lift, best
seen along the 190k isentrope continued early this morning across
most of the forecast area ahead of a warm front approaching off the
coast. The isentropic lift will weaken considerably this morning as
the warm front pushes inland. The parent surface low off the wa
coast is expected to lift NE across vancouver island today. A cold
front trailing the low will push SE across the forecast area today,
slowing as becomes more parallel to the upper flow late today. With
deep moisture in the air mass preceding the cold front, the chances
for rain will remain high. Behind the front air mass will turn more
showery, with low level flow turning sharply to the nw. The trailing
upper level trough is expected to move across Thu morning, with
moisture will generally be limited to low levels below about 10k
feet. Once the upper trough passes, shower activity is expected to
become more reliant on orographic lift and thus will tend to become
more tied to the upwind side of the mountains.

Thu night into Fri a ridge of high pres at the surface and aloft
pushes E into western oregon and washington. Subsidence will
stabilize the atmosphere bringing an end to the showers. Low level
will be slow to dry out though as a low level offflow never really
gets going.

Long term (fri night through Tuesday)... No changes. Previous
discussion follows. Model agreement is better through sat,
with a more progressive pattern over the region. Models continue to
show ridging east of the region on Saturday. Still looks dry and mild
on Saturday, with just increasing mid and high clouds. Now, while
there are still differences in the models, will have to keep some
minor threat of showers in forecast for Sat night into early next

Aviation A cold front will be pivoting onshore this morning,
bringing steady rain and deteriorating flight conditions across
the region. MVFR conditions have developed on the coast over the
past several hours, while the interior remainsVFR at this time.

Expect MVFR over the interior as well by around 15z. There could
be localized ifr as well, with the best chances at konp and khio.

Expect little chance through the afternoon as the front moves
very little. A secondary cold front will move through this
evening, with rain tapering to showers behind the front. Expect
conditions to become predominantlyVFR behind the front with
occasional MVFR in heavier showers.

Pdx and approaches Expect steady rain through today as a front
stalls over the region.VFR early this morning should deteriorate
to MVFR by around 15z with conditions changing little through the
afternoon. A cold front will move through this evening. Rain will
taper to showers and expect conditions to improve toVFR behind
the frontal passage. Pyle

Marine A surface low pres is currently centered around
47n/129w. This low will move NE and onshore on vancouver island
later this morning. Southerly winds associated with this low have
picked up overnight, and we are now seeing borderline gale force
winds at buoy 46050. Expect winds generally 25 to 30 kt with
gusts to 35 kt through mid-morning. There may be a few gusts to
40 kt south of cascade head and within 20 nm of shore as some
coastal jet enhancement may occur. Winds will become w-nw and
slacken later this morning and especially this afternoon as the
cold front moves onshore.

Higher pres will become established over the NE pac later tonight
and thu, and will remain through fri. There may be some
borderline small craft advisory NW winds over the northern
waters later tonight into Thu morning. But otherwise, expect
fairly benign conditions during this time. A weak front will move
through the waters sat, which will briefly turn the winds
southerly and may bring some gusts of 20 to 25 kt. Northerly
winds return Sun and Mon and may be gusty at times.

Seas will remain in the 12 to 14 ft range through tonight. Long
period westerly swell will combine with a significant southerly
wind wave component to produce chaotic seas. The seas will
subside tonight and thu, dropping below 10 ft by around midnight.

Seas then remain below 10 ft through the next several days. Pyle

Pqr watches/warnings/advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Gale warning until 11 am pdt this morning for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 11 pm
pdt this evening.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 10 mi44 min 51°F1016.5 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 36 mi44 min SE 4.1 G 7 45°F 46°F1014.9 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi44 min 51°F12 ft
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 48 mi44 min 50°F15 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR21 mi19 minSE 10 G 187.00 miUnknown Precip48°F44°F87%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS7S6S6S10
1 day agoW8SE6SE6SE6SE7S3SE4S8SW11SW12SW9S11
2 days agoCalmCalmE3E4E3CalmE3E4E3SE4SE6S6SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Wed -- 01:54 AM PDT     8.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:14 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:17 AM PDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:25 PM PDT     7.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:25 PM PDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:52 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Wed -- 01:42 AM PDT     7.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:14 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:16 AM PDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:14 PM PDT     7.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:24 PM PDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:53 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.