Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manzanita, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:42PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:38 PM PST (23:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:39PMMoonset 11:55PM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 321 Pm Pst Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 8 pm pst this evening...
Tonight..W wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw overnight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri night..NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves ne 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat..NE wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves ne 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat night..E wind 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt, becoming 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves E 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..E wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 6 ft.
Sun night..E wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 5 ft.
Mon..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 5 ft.
Tue..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 6 ft.
PZZ200 321 Pm Pst Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will strengthen over the pac nw Fri, then shift east of the cascades Fri night and Sat, allowing increasing offshore flow for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manzanita, OR
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location: 45.7, -123.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 152301
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
300 pm pst Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday. A weak
disturbance will slide across eastern oregon and washington late
tonight and Friday. High pressure aloft strengthens Friday night
through the weekend. East wind develops Friday night and then
strengthens Saturday, with very windy conditions developing at the
west end of the columbia gorge. The upper ridge eventually shifts
east around mid-week, with the next threat of rain late Tuesday or
Wednesday.

Short term Tonight through Sunday... Visible satellite imagery
early this afternoon indicated a large stratus area in the central
and south willamette valley. This has been slow to erode and areas
south of ksle will likely not see much, if any, clearing today. The
larger scale picture showed northwest flow aloft over the pacific
northwest with a short-wave near vancouver island. Expect areas of
fog tonight, especially in the central and south interior valleys.

The aforementioned short-wave will not have much of an impact for the
area as the main energy is forecast to be well east. However, models
continue to advertise some degree of 500 mb cyclonic curvature
tonight through Fri morning, for a low-end precip threat over the sw
washington zones. The upper flow becomes more northwest to north fri
afternoon, with low-level north surface gradients in the interior
valleys. The main issue tonight through Fri night will be potential
air stagnation quality issues. Forecast mixing heights Fri afternoon
in the valleys are only expected to peak around 1500 ft agl.

The 500 mb offshore ridge gradually shifts closer to the coast fri
night and sat. Offshore low-level flow develops Fri night and
intensifies sat. The 12z NAM shows a kttd-kdls gradient around -8 mb
by 21z sat. Typically, the NAM tends to be a couple mb too low, so
would not be surprised to see a -10 mb gorge gradient. Offshore
low-level wind may have some impact a larger area Saturday, as is
typical when the cold-air damming process begins. Thus, air quality
sat should improve. Also, california smoke will not be a player as
the mid-level flow transitions to N to ne.

By Sunday the offshore flow transitions to more a gap-type regime as
the relatively cold air east of the cascades continues to deepen.

Would also expect columbia basin stratus to spread into the central
gorge and upper hood river valley, similar to earlier this week.

Adjust temps and sky cover in those areas to account for potential
stratus build-up. Overall, this upcoming east wind event does not
look quite as strong as the previous episode, but gusts 70-80 mph for
crown point seem plausible. Weishaar

Long term Sunday night through Thursday... A dry start to next
week is expected with the strong upper level ridge remaining in
place over the pacific northwest. East winds will become
increasingly confined to the eastern columbia river gorge.

Elsewhere, winds will begin to become lighter under the
strengthening inversion. This pattern will remain in place until
around midweek. Forecast models continue to not be in great
agreement with respect to the timing of the next frontal system
approaching. Continued to utilize an ensemble based approach today,
resulting in highest rain chances holding off until around
thanksgiving. However, due to the aforementioned spread in models,
confidence in the holiday forecast remains lower than normal. Cullen

Aviation Most of the forecast area has broken out into clear
skies andVFR, though a few areas of ifr MVFR linger in low
clouds at the base of the cascade foothills, the nehalem river
valley, and the south willamette valley. Most of these clouds
should burn off by 00z, though a couple patches may linger into
the evening. Valley fog will redevelop tonight as high pressure
and light wind continue across the region. A weak cold front will
bring an increase in mid to high level clouds Fri morning, with
some light rain or drizzle possible ksle northward. This front
does not appear strong enough to promote strong mixing of the
lower levels, so any low clouds fog that form overnight may
linger well into Friday.

Pdx and approaches...VFR with light variable winds through 05z,
then fog and low clouds should redevelop with ifr lifr likely
later tonight Fri morning. Some spotty -dz is possible from the
low clouds early fri, and poor flying conditions may persist well
into the day. Weagle

Marine Westerly swell train appears to be coming in slightly
later and higher than previously expected, with seas briefly
reaching 14 ft at buoy 46089 earlier today. Seas are slowly
coming down after their peak at buoy 46089, while seas at buoys
46029 and 46050 are still on the rise. Overall, the expiration
timing of 8 pm for the SCA for seas looks to be on track, as enp
spectral guidance suggests seas lowering below 10 ft around 6 pm
this evening. A ridge of high pressure will lay over the waters
into Friday, then high pressure will strengthen inland for
increasing n-ne flow through the weekend. Some localized gusts
25-30 kt will be possible in the offshore flow over the weekend,
mainly below gaps in the coastal terrain. Weagle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 8 pm pst this
evening for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until
midnight pst tonight.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 10 mi39 min 52°F1025.1 hPa (-1.6)
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 36 mi111 min N 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 52°F1025.9 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi39 min 54°F9 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 42 mi49 min Calm G 1.9 53°F 54°F10 ft1025.7 hPa (-1.5)50°F
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 48 mi44 min 55°F10 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR21 mi44 minWNW 410.00 miFair55°F46°F72%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5CalmNE3E6CalmCalmS3CalmCalmNW5NW3
1 day agoCalmSE4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE5N3CalmN3CalmN4CalmCalm
2 days agoNE7CalmE7SE6SE5SE4SE4SE5SE3SE4SE4SE4SE4CalmE6CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Brighton
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Thu -- 06:53 AM PST     6.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM PST     First Quarter
Thu -- 07:15 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:33 PM PST     3.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:37 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:37 PM PST     5.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:55 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.52.43.54.75.66.26.46.15.54.84.23.83.84.14.75.45.85.95.54.83.92.82

Tide / Current Tables for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Barview
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Thu -- 06:44 AM PST     6.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM PST     First Quarter
Thu -- 07:15 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:35 PM PST     3.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:37 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:28 PM PST     5.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:55 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.42.33.44.55.566.15.85.24.53.93.53.53.84.55.15.65.65.24.53.62.71.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.