Wednesday, January17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Manzanita, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 5:00PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 5:42 PM PST (01:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:11AMMoonset 5:53PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 227 Pm Pst Wed Jan 17 2018
.storm warning in effect until 7 pm pst this evening...
Tonight..S wind 30 to 35 kt with gusts to 50 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt by late evening. Combined seas 20 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds, building to 25 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds late. Rain.
Thu..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas to 30 ft with a dominant period of 19 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves S 6 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 26 ft at 17 seconds, subsiding to 22 ft at 16 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of tstms in the evening. Showers.
Fri..SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves sw 5 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 19 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri night..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves W 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 17 ft at 14 seconds.
Sat..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 16 ft.
Sat night..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. W swell 11 ft.
Sun..SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 17 ft.
Mon..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 15 ft.
PZZ200 227 Pm Pst Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A 964 mb surface low will move north along 140 west longitude and be near haida gwaii by early Thursday. Storm force wind gusts will occur over the waters through early evening. Very large swell generated by the strong low will reach the waters late tonight. Peak waves 30 to 35 feet will impact the waters and surf zone late tonight through Thursday morning. The active pattern continues into the weekend, with another round of strong gale force wind likely late Saturday night through Sunday morning, which will boost combined seas near 20 feet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manzanita, OR
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location: 45.7, -123.94     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 172248
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
250 pm pst Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis A cold front will move inland this evening, crossing
the cascades overnight. An upper level trough of low pres off the
coast will then send a series of disturbances inland through the end
of the week, keeping the region in a cooler showery pattern. Another
front will move inland Sunday, bringing a round of heavier rainfall
and some mountain snow.

Short term Tonight through Saturday... Cold front was moving onto
the coast early this afternoon, ushering in a solid looking band of
rain along with some gusty winds. Models indicate the front itself
pushing into the cascades this evening, with a baroclinic zone
lingering into early Sat morning. The initial shortwave that pushed
the front up to the coast was seen in water vapor pictures lifting
ne into vancouver island, but another shortwave lifting up from the
vicinity of 4n 132w will move across early thu. Cross sections of
moisture indicate deep enough moisture to continue with near 100
pops as the front moves through overnight, and will retain
categorical pops through the night into Thu morning with the next
shortwave moving through. Moist onshore flow continues through fri
and Fri night as a few more shortwaves move through. Keeping pops in
the likely to categorical range for showers. Model soundings
continue to indicate marginal instability, centered along and off
the coast Thu afternoon as the cold upper trough moves closer, so
will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms over the coastal areas

Large seas associated with the deep surface low that is running up
towards the central bc coast tonight will arrive tonight and
continue through Thu before decreasing again Thu night. The system
bears a resemblance to a storm back on 10 dec 2015, where seas
topped out in the range of 31 to 32 ft with periods around 17
seconds, that wound up producing some property damage around depoe
bay and cannon beach. Gww deep water wave heights over the coastal
waters expected to top 30 ft early Thu coupled with long periods
will pose a threat for coastal flooding late tonight and thu, with
the peak threat occurring through the daytime high tide early thu

On Sat weak ridging aloft initiates weak warm air advection. Will
keep likely pops in for what should transition to be more stratiform
precipitation. For the next few days with snow levels coming down
behind the front tonight, will see snow adding up in the cascades
again. At this time however, no system appears overly strong or
heavy, so accumulations through Sat should occur at rates under
advisory criteria.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday... Active weather
continues through the weekend, with coast valley rain and mountain
snow. Will likely see a decent amount of snow in the cascades on
Sunday, with snow levels down around 3000 feet (below the passes).

Rain for everyone else means rivers will continue to rise through
Sunday. Transient ridge builds over the pacific northwest late
Monday into Tuesday likely means a break in the rain, but energy
riding over the top of the ridge means I kept a slight chance of
rain and clouds in the forecast for Monday night into Tuesday.

Another trough will bring more rain and another stretch of active
weather starting late Tuesday through the end of next week. -mccoy

Aviation Leading edge of a cold front just offshore at 21z.

Coastal areas wereVFR at 21z, but conditions expected to lower
into MVFR by late afternoon. Vis may slip into high-end ifr as
the cold front moves onshore. The coast will be mainly MVFR
00z Thu through 04z or so, followed by a mix ofVFR and MVFR
thereafter. Latest model guidance suggests another surface trough
will impact the coast around 12z for a higher threat of MVFR.

Inland areas to remainVFR through about 02z thu. The cold front
reaches the willamette valley and SW washington interior lowlands
between 02z and 04z, with the potential for MVFR with the front
and a few hours after passage. Post-frontal pre-dominantVFR
develops in the interior valleys between 07z and 10z, but
increasing chance of MVFR between 12z and 15z thu. Higher
terrain becomes frequently obscured after 00z thu.

Pdx and approaches...VFR to be the dominant flight category at
the terminal through at least early evening. Cold front moves
across the terminal around 04z thu, which will result in MVFR
conditions. Expect moreVFR after 08z in the post-frontal air
mass. Another surface trough is expected to move across the
terminal between 12z and 15z for an increasing threat of MVFR.


Marine General forecast trending as expected. A 960 mb to 964
mb low pres center was located near 48n 136w at 21z. Storm force
gusts to 58 kt have been noted at buoy 46005, with a 51 kt gusts
at 46050 at 21z. The forecast 80m wind field from the 19z hrrr
seems to be meshing well with buoy observations. Peak wind will
occur through about 01z thu, with the strongest gusts over
pzz275. The coastal jet signature shown earlier by the NAM has
since disappeared on recent runs with the bulk of the higher
winds associated with the cold front itself.

Post frontal gales to then continue for the outer waters later
this evening through thu. 12z model runs are in better agreement
regarding the Sun system. Looks like gale force wind returns to
pzz255 and pzz275 in the 06z-12z Sun time frame and then move
into the north zones after 12z. Indicated gusts around 45 kt over
pzz275 Sun morning. Wind speeds settle down early next week.

Seas starting to build this afternoon, near 30 ft at buoy 46005
at 21z. Latest enp guidance indicates seas near 40 ft at 46005
valid 00z thu. The highest seas are expected to move inside 60
nm by 12z thu. Little change in modeled wave guidance with seas
29-33 feet. The 12z spectral guidance for buoy 46029 shows 32-33
ft peak wave heights from 12z-18z thu. This is slightly higher
than the Tue runs. The ECMWF continues to be 2-4 ft lower.

Areas of the shoreline will be highly impacted by the expected
large waves beginning late tonight. The expected 30-33 ft west
swell with 15-18 second periods will contain an enormous amount
of energy. Waves will generally break within a mile or so
offshore, with the potential for 40 ft or greater wave heights.

These waves will contain enough momentum to run water much
further up the beaches. It appears this event will be more
significant than the december 2014 impacts but less so than
february 2006 where significant damage occurred across low lying
beach and harbor areas. Seas diminish fri, but will remain above
20 ft through Fri evening. Seas will continue to subside fri
night and sat, easing to the lower teens by 12z sun. However,
forecast gale force wind Sun will likely boost seas to near 20
ft. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Coastal flood warning from midnight tonight to midnight pst
Thursday night for central oregon coast-north oregon coast.

Wa... Coastal flood warning from midnight tonight to midnight pst
Thursday night for south washington coast.

Pz... Storm warning until 7 pm pst this evening for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 4 am
pst Friday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 10 mi42 min 51°F1009.8 hPa (+0.5)
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 36 mi42 min S 12 G 15 52°F 1007.5 hPa (+0.0)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi42 min 51°F19 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 42 mi52 min S 27 G 35 53°F 51°F20 ft1005.5 hPa (+0.9)49°F
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 48 mi47 min 51°F20 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR21 mi47 minS 22 G 304.00 miLight Rain and Breezy54°F50°F88%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE7SE5SW3S5S6
1 day agoSW4S8S7SE6SE6S8SW5N4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmSE6S8S5S6SE3E3SE3
2 days agoE4E5SE5E4E3SE4CalmNE10

Tide / Current Tables for Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Wed -- 01:17 AM PST     6.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM PST     3.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:05 PM PST     8.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:00 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:53 PM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:10 PM PST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Wed -- 01:05 AM PST     6.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:20 AM PST     3.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:50 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:54 AM PST     7.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:01 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:53 PM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:09 PM PST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.