Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manzanita, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 6:19PM Thursday October 19, 2017 2:19 AM PDT (09:19 UTC) Moonrise 6:20AMMoonset 5:49PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 1248 Am Pdt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory for winds in effect through this evening...
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..SW wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves sw 8 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 13 ft at 11 seconds. Rain.
Thu..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 13 ft at 11 seconds, building to 20 ft at 15 seconds in the afternoon. Showers. Slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt early in the evening. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 20 ft at 17 seconds. Showers and a chance of tstms.
Fri..W wind 15 to 20 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves W 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 18 ft at 16 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Fri night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 16 ft at 15 seconds, subsiding to 13 ft at 14 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Sat..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. W swell 12 ft. Rain.
Sat night..SW wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. W swell 12 ft. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 16 ft.
Mon..E wind to 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 13 ft.
PZZ200 1248 Am Pdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Cold front continues moving se across the coastal waters tonight. A trough of low pres will linger over the waters Thu, then a weak ridge of high pres builds in Fri. A west swell arriving Thu brings seas to 20 to 22 ft from Thu afternoon into Fri morning along with hazardous bar conditions. Another strong frontal system arrives Fri night and Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manzanita, OR
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location: 45.7, -123.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 190422 aab
afdpqr
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service portland or
922 pm pdt Wed oct 18 2017
updated the aviation and marine sections

Synopsis A series of storm systems will bring periods of valley
rain that may be heavy at times, mountain snow and coastal winds
through the weekend. The first strong, wet front moves through
tonight and Thursday. This will be followed by a brief cooler air
mass that will bring snow to the cascades Thursday night and Friday,
with a chance of thunderstorms elsewhere. Another wet strong system
moves through with more heavy rain Saturday and Sunday.

Short term Tonight through Saturday... The first strong frontal
system will be moving through the forecast area tonight and Thursday,
stalling inland on Thursday as it becomes a bit more north-south
oriented before finally moving east of the forecast area later
Thursday and Thursday night. The front is producing strong winds
along parts of the coast and the adjacent coastal mountains for a
while tonight, with breezy conditions inland. Rainfall rates are not
expected to produce flooding at this point but bear watching. Have
trended the QPF upward towards model consensus for tonight and
Thursday though.

The associated cooler air mass associated with the parent upper
trough moves onshore Thursday night and through the area Friday.

This will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the coastal waters
and the coast Thursday night, and onshore on Friday. Snow levels
lower to near pass elevations in the cascades, and advisory amounts
are possible Thursday night and Friday. The greatest amounts, which
could exceed a foot, would be at ski resort elevations, but the
passes could get close to or exceed 6 inches.

Precipitation will briefly taper off Friday evening before increasing
later Friday night and Saturday as heavy rain from strong warm
advection with the next warm front moves in. The models suggest the
heavy rain will initially broadside southwest washington and
northwest oregon late Friday night and Saturday, before impacting
mainly the northern areas Saturday night. The cold front then sweeps
southward through southwest washington and northwest oregon Sunday
and Sunday night to complete the heavy rain episode.

This second event will produce more rainfall across the area than the
one tonight and Thursday, and as a result has greater potential to
produce hydrological problems for our forecast areas, including the
burn scar areas. Tolleson

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows...

Saturday night through Wednesday... .Strong moist zonal flow will set
up over the region Saturday night through Sunday. Snow levels will
rise above 8,000 feet. Still some uncertainty as to whether or not
the heaviest rain will set up over western oregon or western
washington. Have kept pops high, but forecast details such as amount,
intensity, and duration are unclear.

Expect to see some rises on area rivers, especially in the coastal
basins, and if the heavy rain sets up over urban areas, some
localized urban flooding issues could develop. Also, locations with
significant burn scars should be aware of possible flash flooding and
debris flows.

Models are suggesting, short wave ridging will develop over the
pacific NW early next week, which should bring at least a day or two
of dry weather. The euro model suggests a weak front could push into
the region during the middle of next week while the GFS remains dry
and mild. Given the uncertainty, have trended pops towards
climatology. Bishop

Aviation MVFR CIGS at the coast as the cold front is about to
move south-southeast of kast at this hour.VFR elsewhere,
although CIGS are lowering in response to the relatively slow
moving front. Conditions expected to go to predominantly MVFR
conditions later tonight after 07z as the cold front pushes rain
inland. MVFR conditions appear to be the most likely flight
category over the interior TAF sites through the day thu. Along
the coast expect MVFR, and locally ifr conditions to continue
tonight. As a cold front moves onshore thu, improvement toVFR
category expected along the north oregon coast after 12z, while
further south MVFR to ifr conditions are expected to persist
through most of the day. Conditions look to improve after 20 02z.

Plan for a return toVFR inland with MVFR at the coast.

Kpdx and approaches... MainlyVFR conditions through 08z tonight,
although there is a chance for seeing some MVFR CIGS anytime before
08z. After 08z expect MVFR conditions to become predominant as
rain associated with a cold front moves in. Heaviest rain arrives
around the morning push bringing some possibility of ifr
cigs vsbys, but still feel lower end MVFR is most likely. Conds
improve toVFR after 20 02z. Jbonk

Marine Cold front has slid south of the columbia mouth as of
2100 hrs and will continue slowly drifting south and weakening
overnight. Winds and the associated wind wave driven seas have
eased back into the 14-15 ft range fairly quickly after having
peaked around 18 ft across the inner north waters where the
coastal jet had strongest influence. Southerly gales will
continue tonight south of the cold front. The front is expected
to reach newport around 6 am thu. The coastal jet will be
somewhat weaker across the central oregon coastal waters with
peak gusts 35-40 kt. Seas there will also stay closer to 16 ft
tonight owing to the weaker wind waves.

Winds will continue dropping ranging 15 to 25 kt behind the
front, which will allow seas to continue toward the lower teens
by daybreak Thu morning. A large long period swell will arrive
from the west later in the day thu. That swell will peak between
20 and 23 ft Thu evening, then slowly subside Fri and Fri night.

These wave heights coupled with the long period, have necessitated
a high surf advisory from Thu afternoon through Fri morning.

Additionally, expect particularly hazardous bar conditions along
the length of the coast. Another storm system capable of
producing at least gale force wind gusts appears on track for
Friday night and Saturday. Jbonk

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory from 1 pm Thursday to 10 am pdt Friday for
central oregon coast-north oregon coast.

High wind warning until 4 am pdt Thursday for coast range of
northwest oregon.

High wind warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for north oregon
coast.

Wa... High surf advisory from 1 pm Thursday to 10 am pdt Friday for
south washington coast.

High wind warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for willapa
hills.

Pz... Gale warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or out 10 nm-
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10
to 60 nm.

Gale warning until 5 am pdt Thursday for coastal waters from
cascade head to florence or out 10 nm-waters from cascade
head to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 10 am
pdt Friday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 10 mi49 min 53°F1006.1 hPa
46096 34 mi169 min SSW 16 G 16 48°F 54°F1005.4 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 36 mi49 min S 12 G 18 53°F 58°F1004.2 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi49 min 54°F12 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 42 mi89 min S 19 G 23 55°F 55°F13 ft1003 hPa (-0.9)53°F
46T29 45 mi29 min SSW 19 G 23 55°F 55°F1003.9 hPa52°F
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 48 mi54 min 55°F14 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR21 mi24 minSSW 6 G 147.00 miRain55°F51°F88%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3S7S12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmW3CalmS6SE6S13
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW6W10NW6NW3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Brighton
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Thu -- 12:46 AM PDT     7.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM PDT     1.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:20 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 12:48 PM PDT     8.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:22 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:19 PM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.17.36.75.53.92.41.51.323.45.16.87.98.27.66.24.32.410.20.41.434.8

Tide / Current Tables for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Barview
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Thu -- 12:35 AM PDT     6.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM PDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:20 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 12:37 PM PDT     7.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:22 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:18 PM PDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.86.86.24.93.42.11.21.11.83.24.96.67.67.775.63.82.10.70.10.31.32.94.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.