Saturday, August19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Manzanita, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:15PM Friday August 18, 2017 10:34 PM PDT (05:34 UTC) Moonrise 1:49AMMoonset 5:12PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 854 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 18 2017
Tonight..NW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Sat..NW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat night..NW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun..NW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the evening. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
Mon night..NW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 5 ft.
Tue..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 4 ft.
Wed..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 5 ft.
PZZ200 Sdus24 kbmx 190356 n1sbmx 8c7y@8#%c7sc7ǀ@2$  $2@7<y2y"h v&%e%&%& & &&6&%6%vv' &v'&%6&vvf&   (f&&5&evff66v%p! '8&v%&5&fff@, 7(&56vfv6& !5 76%fv&f6

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manzanita, OR
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location: 45.7, -123.94     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 190427
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
926 pm pdt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis Onshore winds continue the next several days. Slight
variations of the upper level pressure pattern will result in slight
variations in how expansive nighttime morning clouds will be through
early next week. The clouds should clear in the afternoons with
temperatures remaining near or above the seasonal normals. An upper
level ridge is expected early next week for less clouds and slightly
warmer temperatures. An upper level trough will bring a return slight
cooling, and possibly some showers late in the week.

Short term Tonight through Monday... Given the depth of the marine
layer, added a mention of drizzle to the cascades and foothills
between 1500 and 3500 feet. Otherwise, no changes... Previous
discussion follows. Bentley
the tail end of a weak cold front will clip extreme SW washington and
nw oregon this evening, maintaining cloudy conditions for the coast
and possibly producing patchy drizzle or fog along the immediate
coast. An upper level trough over the area will result in a
relatively deep marine layer that will allow the marine clouds to
seep inland through the coastal gaps late tonight filling in parts of
the willamette valley Saturday morning. Clearing Saturday afternoon
will result in near normal afternoon temperatures (inland low 80s).

There will be little change Saturday night and Sunday as another weak
upper level trough moves over the area. One change will be a lack of
a surface front Saturday night near the washington and oregon coast.

There is a warm front, but it is far north of the portland forecast
area. So one difference in the forecast is there is no threat for
coastal drizzle or fog Saturday nigh and Sunday morning.

The more pressing concern for the short term forecast is the sky
forecast for Monday morning near the time of the solar eclipse
totality. The clouds are as tricky to forecast this day as any, with
the biggest challenges revolving around determining how widespread
the coastal clouds will be, and how far inland they will reach.

An upper level ridge builds Sunday night and Monday morning
that the marine layer will be shallow, and limit the cloud ceiling
bases, and how far they can move inland. However, the 12z models
show a weak upper level shortwave sneaking in under the ridge near
the time of the eclipse. They also show a surface front over the ne
pacific. The models vary on the position and strength of this upper
wave, but seem to agree that any precipitation with the surface front
will remain well offshore.

However, clouds ahead of the front will likely move in along the
coast Sunday night and Monday morning, and some of the models are
forecasting light rain or drizzle associated with these clouds along
the coast. I doubt that any precipitation will materialize from these
clouds, but this indicates that there will be an increase of
low-level moisture.

An increase of low-level moisture may allow more clouds to develop
inland early Monday morning than we previously thought, mainly along
the SW washington and north oregon cascade foothills. There is a
chance that these clouds will expand with north winds steering them
south into parts of the central willamette valley. These
possibilities are not fully in the forecast yet, but it is a
possibility, and has decreased the forecast confidence for clear
skies in the willamette valley during the time of the eclipse.

The main reason this possibility is not in the current forecast, is
that the weather pattern expected for Sunday night and Monday is
almost identical to what we had last night (Thursday night) and this
morning (Friday). The clouds were persistent on the north coast this
morning, but the central oregon coast was clear. The clouds moved
inland up the lower columbia river briefly impacting kelso and
portland mid morning. Since the current weather pattern is so similar
to Monday's, the clouds Monday morning will likely match what
happened this morning.

The best option for clear skies Monday morning continues to be east
of the cascades pending areas near fires where smoke may be a
nuisance. ~tj

Long term Monday night through Thursday... An upper level trough
approaches Monday night and Tuesday from the NW enhancing the upper
ridge over the region. Meanwhile, an upper low settles over central
california. This will result in above normal afternoon temperatures
with possibly some cascade showers in the afternoons. The trough will
move through Wednesday and Thursday and possibly bring a surface cold
front with it. Cooler temperatures with increasing chances for rain
is therefore expected late next week. ~tj

Aviation Low MVFR and ifr stratus has moved solidly into the
coast this evening, and expect it to persist through tomorrow
morning. A weak decayed front is moving onshore tonight, which
will likely help generate a better inland stratus push than we
saw yesterday. Expect MVFR conditions to develop for the northern
interior TAF sites by around 09z, then spread down through the
willamette valley into ksle and keug between 09z-12z. The clouds
over the interior and along the central or coast should clear by
around 18z. The north or and south wa coast will likely remain
MVFR through most of the day.

Kpdx and approaches... Expect MVFR stratus to reach the terminal
by around 09z and remain through most of the morning. Conditions
should improve toVFR by around 18z, with mostly sunny skies
through the rest of the day. Pyle

Marine Not much change to the pattern over the next several
days. Surface high pressure will remain over the NE pac, with
thermal low pressure over NW california and SW oregon. This will
keep persistent northerly winds over the waters. A small craft
advisory is in effect until Sunday morning for the central oregon
waters, with the strongest winds expected south of newport. The
winds may ease a bit Sunday and Sunday night then increase again
Monday afternoon.

Seas will generally be around 5 to 6 ft through the period, but
may build to around 7 or 8 ft at times to south of newport with
the stronger north winds. Pyle pt

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 5 am pdt Sunday for
coastal waters from cascade head or to florence or out 60

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 2 am to
5 am pdt Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 10 mi46 min 51°F1022.4 hPa
46096 34 mi64 min NNW 9.7 G 12 55°F 57°F1023.1 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 36 mi46 min NW 11 G 12 63°F 71°F1022.2 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi34 min 62°F4 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 42 mi44 min NNW 9.7 G 12 61°F 62°F5 ft1022.9 hPa (+0.3)60°F
46T29 45 mi34 min N 7.8 G 9.7 61°F 61°F5 ft1023.4 hPa (+0.3)60°F
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 48 mi39 min 61°F5 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR21 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair59°F55°F88%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW7N6W10
1 day agoCalmW5W6NW3NW3NW6NW5NW4NW3CalmCalmNW5NW9NW5NW13W15
2 days agoSE4CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Sat -- 03:53 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:24 AM PDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:56 AM PDT     6.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:15 PM PDT     2.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:14 PM PDT     8.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Sat -- 03:54 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:24 AM PDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:45 AM PDT     6.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:15 PM PDT     2.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:03 PM PDT     8.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.