Saturday, December16, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Manzanita, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 4:31PM Saturday December 16, 2017 10:49 AM PST (18:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:08AMMoonset 3:58PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 855 Am Pst Sat Dec 16 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until noon pst today...
Today..NW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the sw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 7 ft at 8 seconds easing to 6 ft at 11 seconds this afternoon. Areas of fog. Chance of showers.
Tonight..S wind 10 to 15 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 11 seconds. Rain likely.
Sun..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt early in the morning. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 11 seconds. Rain.
Sun night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 12 seconds. Showers likely.
Mon..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of showers.
Mon night..S wind 10 to 15 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 5 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of rain.
Tue..SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Combined seas 15 ft.
Wed..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. NW swell 14 ft.
PZZ200 855 Am Pst Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure remains over the northeast pacific with low pressure over the rockies. A weak front slides mainly across the washington waters late tonight and Sunday. Low pressure drops south from the gulf of alaska Tuesday bringing a strong cold front and probable gales.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manzanita, OR
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location: 45.7, -123.94     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 161729
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
929 am pst Sat dec 16 2017

Synopsis Cool cloudy weather will continue into Monday. Light rain
and cascade snow is expected, but mainly north of a tillamook to
mt hood line through Monday. Snow levels will rise to near or
slightly above the cascade passes Sunday afternoon. Rain and cascade
snow becomes more widespread Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front
moves across the area. Dry but cold weather is expected after

Short term Today through Monday... There are patches of icy roads
this morning in the willamette valley. The temperatures last night
dipped below freezing shortly after a rain shower causing lingering
water on surfaces to freeze. These icy roads are accompanied by fog
in some areas too. Temperatures should warm above freezing late this

Light showers mainly north of eugene will decrease today through this
evening. A warm front passing north of the area will produce another
round of light precipitation late tonight through Sunday. Snow levels
will remain around 3000 feet through tonight then rise to above 5500
feet Sunday afternoon. Most of the precipitation will be along the
coast and the higher terrain, and expect very little rain for the
interior valleys. Rain totals will be light, with less than 0.25 inch
for the higher terrain and less than 0.10 inch for the interior
valleys. Overnight temperatures in the interior low lands should be
warmer tonight (above freezing) with daytime highs on Sunday in the
upper 40s.

Showers will linger mainly over southwest washington and along the
coast Sunday night through Monday as the warm front stalls across
washington state. ~tj

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows... Monday night
through Friday... We start next week under relatively flat, zonal flow
with a broad ridge off the coast of california and an approaching
trough coming out of the gulf of alaska. We will see our first
widespread rain in a while with this system starting Tuesday morning
and continuing through Wednesday morning, with rainfall amounts
around an inch for most of the area. Snow levels will be falling
through this event, starting around 5000-5500 ft Tuesday morning, and
falling to around 1500 ft by Wednesday morning. Showers will be
tapering off midday Wednesday. 1000-500-mb thicknesses drop down to
523 dam, and 850 temps only lower down to -4c while precip is
falling, indicating no chance for snow down to the valley floor with
this system, though locations in the cascade foothills and coast
range could see a dusting of snow down to 1500 ft on Wednesday as
precip is coming to an end. Good news for skiers is that with ~1 inch
of liquid equivalent, and snow levels starting around 5500 ft, the
resorts could see a foot of snow with this system.

Beyond Wednesday, ridging builds back up over the eastern
pacific and along the west coast. Ensemble members generally agree
on some sort of a ridge over the eastern pacific, though the exact
positioning is in flux. Most models suggest another dry spell
continuing into the weekend, with the return of east winds. Only
difference from this last dry spell may be that model temperatures
in the columbia basin are looking a little colder, suggesting colder
air filtering into the willamette valley as we go into next weekend.


Aviation Conditions are gradually improving with the taf
terminals a mix of MVFR andVFR, except for high end ifr vsbys
at khio. Do expect a broad improvement as a warm front, but many
areas may still flirt with MVFR CIGS at at times through the
evening. Warm frontal rain arrives later this evening and
overnight which appear to drop vsbys back down to ifr for many
areas across the north. Thinner cloud cover across the south may
bring a return to lifr under fog low stratus south of ksle,
including keug at or after 09z lasting through much of Sunday

Pdx and approaches... CurrentlyVFR conditions however, an advancing
warm front may keep CIGS bouncing down to MVFR at times. Have
very low confidence, however. Most likely scenario is CIGS will
remainVFR through this evening with lower CIGS likely to
obscure the cascade terrain through the evening. Then have
higher confidence CIGS will lower around 05z as rain pushes over
the field overnight tonight through early Sunday. Jbonk

Marine Not many changes for the morning update package. Square
seas are holding on a little longer across the northern waters so
decided to extend the SCA for seas until about noon. Jbonk
previous discussion follows: high pressure offshore bringing nw
winds across the waters this morning. Winds will back later today
as a warm front approaches. South to southwest winds increase
tonight with gusts to 25 kt expected west in zone pzz270. May see
wind gusts to 25 kt over pzz250 sun. A stronger front is modeled
to arrive on tue, and looks like it has the potential to bring
gale force winds. Another front may arrive wed. Then weak
offshore flow is expected to develop in the late week time

Seas are sitting just 8 to 9 ft and are slowly subsiding. However
with periods around 8 to 10 seconds, choppy steep seas are
occurring. Seas will continue to subside through the morning.

Seas remain in the 5-7 ft range later today through mon. The
stronger Tue front will likely push seas into the low to mid
teens before they drop off again during the second half of the
week. Mh

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds from midnight tonight to 7 am
pst Sunday for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade
head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until noon pst today
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head
or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 2 pm
this afternoon to 6 pm pst this evening.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 2 am to
5 am pst Sunday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 10 mi50 min 51°F1029.1 hPa (+1.4)
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 36 mi50 min E 2.9 G 4.1 44°F 1027.6 hPa (+1.0)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi50 min 48°F6 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 42 mi60 min W 3.9 G 5.8 48°F 48°F8 ft1028.2 hPa (+1.0)44°F
46T29 45 mi40 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 49°F 49°F8 ft1028.7 hPa44°F
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 48 mi55 min 50°F8 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR21 mi75 minN 03.00 miLight Rain41°F41°F100%1028.8 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmW11
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmNE6SE3S3SE5SE4SE4SE5SE6E4SE5CalmSE3CalmSE3W4SE4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE11

Tide / Current Tables for Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Sat -- 04:45 AM PST     3.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:07 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:42 AM PST     8.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:48 PM PST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Sat -- 04:44 AM PST     2.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:07 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:30 AM PST     8.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:47 PM PST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.