Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bozeman, MT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:51PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 5:06 PM MDT (23:06 UTC) Moonrise 7:21AMMoonset 8:59PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bozeman, MT
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location: 45.71, -110.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Billings, MT
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Fxus65 kbyz 292119
afdbyz
area forecast discussion
national weather service billings mt
319 pm mdt Wed mar 29 2017

Short term Valid for Thu and fri...

dynamic upper trough moving into the area from the west will
impact the weather the next couple of days. Flow aloft will back
tonight and allow deeper mid level moisture and shortwave energy
to ride into western zones and the beartooth/absaroka mountains.

Models have come in line in spreading strong ascent into western
and central zones late tonight and early Thursday courtesy of
coupled jets. Have raised pops to likely and higher from basically
billings westward for this time frame. The time of strongest
ascent looks to be Thursday morning, with showers tapering off a
bit Thursday afternoon as jet energy slips away. West and
southwest facing slopes of the mountains will get a quick shot of
accumulating snowfall. This snowfall will likely spill over to the
northern facing slopes late tonight as the jet forces ascent
everywhere. Have decided to upgrade the winter storm watch for the
beartooth/absaroka mountains to a warning for late tonight
through Friday evening. The strongest upslope ascent will take
place Thursday afternoon through early Friday, so the mountains
should to get a couple of shots of snow impacting various slope
aspects through the event.

The flow turns deeply upslope Thursday and continues through
early Friday. There is quite a difference in QPF amounts for the
western and upslope locations for Thursday afternoon through
Friday when comparing the GFS to the ecmwf. The GFS produces over
an inch of QPF over these locations and this was consistent with
the NAM and canadian model. The GFS ensembles took a big jump up
in rainfall totals with the 12z run as well. The ECMWF was the odd
model out here and thus leaned heavier on the GFS and wpc
guidance for QPF totals. Have also decided to upgrade the winter
storm watch to a warning for the bighorn mountains but will start
the warning there at 12z. Mountains were looking at 10 to 16
inches of snow by the time the system is done. Rain looks to
linger into Friday afternoon as the models try to cool the lower
layers. System still looks too warm for heavy snow accumulation
concerns over the foothills, but do think some wet snow will mix
Thursday night and Friday morning for some light accumulations.

Will have to watch this closely as red lodge has a tendency to
"overachieve" sometimes with these spring systems. Twh

Long term Valid for sat... Sun... Mon... Tue... Wed...

the weekend will be mostly quiet and warm across the region with
high temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Rain chances
will be near zero on Saturday as a weak ridge of high pressure
sits over the region. An active weather pattern will quickly
return the the region on Sunday evening as a shortwave moves into
the northwestern us. Mountain snowfall, isolated rain showers, and
increasing clouds will move in later in day Sunday ahead of this
shortwave.

There is good agreement that this shortwave will then strengthen
as it passes over wyoming on Monday so precipitation chances for
Monday and Tuesday were increased. An associated area of low
pressure will also form at the surface near central wyoming on
Monday. With good support aloft, and strong north and
northeasterly flow in the lower levels, widespread precipitation
will develop through the day on Monday should this model solution
hold forecast. Some solutions indicate the area of low pressure
could form further south; these solutions would reduce
precipitation amounts across the region. This system also looks
colder than the last few to cross our region so cannot rule out
snow with this system on Monday night. Too early to speculate
on exact precipitation totals but amounts ranging from 0.25-0.75
inches are possible.

The area of low pressure pushes out of the region Tuesday
afternoon with quieter conditions moving in for next Wednesday.

Looking towards the end of next week, a progressive weather
pattern looks continue. Dobbs

Aviation
Vfr conditions will continue through the rest of the afternoon
with increasing clouds across the region as a disturbance moves in
from the west. MVFR CIGS will overspread kbil and klvm after 10z
as rain showers, and occasional MVFR vis move in. Mountains
obscurations will be widespread. MVFR restrictions should persist
through most of the TAF period outside any brief improvements to
vfr between rain showers. Kshr will see MVFR restrictions later
Thursday afternoon (after 18z) as the disturbances reaches them
later in the day. Kmls will likely stayVFR through most of the
event. Dobbs

Preliminary point temp/pops
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
bil 043/055 041/051 035/061 042/061 040/048 035/049 033/056
27/w 76/r 20/u 01/b 55/r 63/o 11/b
lvm 042/051 034/049 029/059 036/056 033/046 030/047 030/055
58/w 84/o 10/u 13/r 54/o 32/o 11/b
hdn 037/060 040/052 035/063 039/064 037/051 035/050 032/058
16/w 76/r 40/b 01/b 45/r 53/o 11/b
mls 040/061 042/055 037/062 042/065 040/054 038/052 033/057
04/w 54/r 30/b 01/b 44/r 53/r 11/b
4bq 039/064 041/053 037/059 039/063 039/055 037/048 030/053
03/w 65/r 31/b 01/b 34/r 75/r 21/b
bhk 037/063 040/054 038/060 038/064 037/053 036/049 031/054
02/w 42/r 31/b 01/b 25/r 65/o 31/b
shr 034/059 038/048 032/057 034/060 036/050 033/045 029/054
04/w 87/r 61/b 01/b 45/r 64/o 11/b

Byz watches/warnings/advisories
Mt... Winter storm warning in effect from midnight tonight to
midnight mdt Friday night for zone 67.

Wy... Winter storm warning in effect from 6 am Thursday to 6 am mdt
Saturday for zone 98.

Weather.Gov/billings


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bozeman, Gallatin Field, MT10 mi71 minno data10.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F34°F44%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from BZN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmSE7S5N6S3S4S6S4SE7SE4SE3SE4S6SE6E4CalmNW4CalmSW6
G15
E5NE5--Calm
1 day agoNW19N14W6SW5SW10SW10CalmW3W5W6NW5NW3W6SW4E3E3Calm5W5NW9SW7Calm3W6
2 days agoSW12SW8S7SW9SW16
G22
SW4NE6E10E7W4CalmS7CalmCalmE4S3CalmN65NW7NW75NW7W14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of NorthernPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Billings, MT (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Billings, MT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.