Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bozeman, MT
April 25, 2024 2:46 AM MDT (08:46 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 9:51 PM Moonset 5:51 AM |
Area Discussion for - Billings, MT
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FXUS65 KBYZ 250811 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 211 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024
DISCUSSION
Today through Friday night...
A more active weather pattern will overtake southern Montana and northern Wyoming today and last through the weekend. This pattern will bring cooler temperatures and an increasing chance of low elevation rain and high elevation snow.
Water vapor imagery was showing a flat upper ridge over the forecast area at the moment, with an upper low over southern Nevada and a deepening trough over British Columbia. The ridge will slide east today and open the area up to the influence of southern Nevada low, and increasing moisture and energy. Weak showers were already forming over the west early this morning and these are progged to increase as the day wears on. Capes reach around 200j/kg with effective bulk shear around 30kts over the western half of the area, so would expect showers to fill in, with a few thunderstorms, but nothing terribly strong. Precipitable water amounts increase to around 0.60 inches, so showers shouldn't be terribly heavy. Have high PoPs (50-70%) in the place for locations west of Columbus, along the foothills and in the mountains. Snow levels will be around 9 thousand feet today but lower tonight and Friday. The probability of 0.20 inches of rain is 20% for today and tonight for locations west of Columbus, with a 5% chance in Billings. The mountains and foothills have a 30-50% chance of 0.20 inches for that time period.
The east (mainly Carter and Fallon counties) will have potential for a strong storm this afternoon, but it appears the risk for severe weather has slide east a bit for today. Highest capes (above 500j/kg) have pushed into the western Dakotas. HRRR does initiate a couple of stronger cells over these two counties around 22z (and this makes sense with an inverted surface trough in place there), then pushes activity into the Dakotas by 01z, so there may be short window of opportunity. Cape was weak through, which limits potential, and given that the highest capes have pushed east, will not mention severe in the that area today. SPC keeps the marginal just southeast of Carter county. Expect pulsing storms there today with small hail potential and locally heavy rain, with PWATs around 0.80 inches. The probability of 0.25 inches of rainfall over the east is 20% for today and tonight over Fallon and Carter counties.
Friday will be cooler with northerly surface winds, with a better chance of showers for the entire area. The chance of showers rise to 60-90% from Billings westward (highest over the mountains and foothills), with a 60% chance of showers over eastern zones.
Precipitable water amounts rise to around 0.70 inches, so showers will be a little heavier with locally heavy rain in play. Models want to focus on locations west of Billings for the heaviest showers, with the GFS putting down around 0.75 inches Friday. NBM is not quite as heavy with the precip, placing a 40% chance of 0.25 inches Friday west of Columbus. At any rate, showers will be more widespread Friday, especially west and over the mountains and foothills, with brief and local heavy rain possible.
Snow levels will fall to around 7 thousand feet Friday, lowering to around 6500 feet Friday night. So the mountains above 7 thousand feet will get a strong shot of wet snowfall. Upwards of a foot is expected Thursday night through Saturday night above 7 thousand feet. NBM is projecting upwards of 15 inches through Saturday night, while WPC was giving upwards of 18 inches. NBM probabilities of 8 inches was still at 80%, with 60% chance of 12 inches. Will upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning, and run it through Saturday night. TWH
Saturday through Thursday...
A Winter Storm Warning will continue for the Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains and Crazy Mountains until Sunday morning. Adverse travel conditions are expected and those in the high country should be prepared for heavy accumulating snowfall.
Saturday, another closed low will eject through the Four Corners into the Plains, following a prior low moving into the northern Midwest. There will be lingering snow and precipitation into Sunday morning, with a the western mountains picking up a few more inches of snow. As for the rest of the forecast area, precip chances will be highest into Saturday afternoon, with 50-90% probabilities from Sheridan to Judith Gap and west. As for locations east of this line, up to 40% prob for precip, with the lowest chances in the northeastern areas. QPF amounts for the weekend range from only a few hundredths in the east, to several tenths, highest amounts for the mtns.
Chances for precipitation will persist through at Tuesday with low to moderate chances. Another wave of energy will bring moderate to high chances Sunday afternoon/evening, with a 50-90% chance for west of Billings. QPF amounts aren't very high with this quick shot, with the mountains seeing up to a 0.1". Lower elevations will have chances for rain showers and a few hundredths of QPF. Broad troughing will move into the region Monday, models are once more depicting another round of low to moderate precip chances, 30-60%, through the day.
Tuesday, zonal flow and some weak ridging will begin to settle in, persisting through the week. With this pattern, warmer temps and drier conditions are forecasted for the area. Highs in the 50s/60s Saturday and Sunday, 60s to 70 Monday and Tuesday, and 70s/80s Wednesday and Thursday.
Matos
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the period.
Chances for precipitation and thunderstorms will increase today. Sites with the best chances for thunderstorms today are KLVM and KBHK, beginning around 20Z. Periods of MVFR are possible with heavier showers and any thunderstorms. Mountain obscurations are likely, with snow showers through the period.
Matos
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 069 048/061 045/059 041/064 043/066 042/067 043/073 2/W 46/W 55/W 35/W 25/T 53/W 12/W LVM 065 042/051 040/056 039/060 040/061 036/063 038/069 6/T 79/T 87/W 55/T 26/T 43/W 12/T HDN 071 046/066 043/061 040/066 041/069 042/069 041/076 1/B 34/W 55/W 24/W 24/T 53/W 21/B MLS 073 046/070 045/059 037/061 039/068 043/067 043/075 2/W 13/W 32/W 11/B 12/W 41/U 11/B 4BQ 074 047/066 045/057 038/059 038/067 042/068 042/076 3/T 24/T 54/W 22/W 12/W 31/B 11/U BHK 075 044/064 041/054 033/056 034/065 039/064 039/071 5/T 46/T 42/W 12/W 12/W 32/W 11/B SHR 068 044/061 042/055 035/059 037/065 039/066 039/075 3/W 45/W 77/W 34/W 23/T 42/W 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Sunday FOR ZONES 67-68.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 211 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024
DISCUSSION
Today through Friday night...
A more active weather pattern will overtake southern Montana and northern Wyoming today and last through the weekend. This pattern will bring cooler temperatures and an increasing chance of low elevation rain and high elevation snow.
Water vapor imagery was showing a flat upper ridge over the forecast area at the moment, with an upper low over southern Nevada and a deepening trough over British Columbia. The ridge will slide east today and open the area up to the influence of southern Nevada low, and increasing moisture and energy. Weak showers were already forming over the west early this morning and these are progged to increase as the day wears on. Capes reach around 200j/kg with effective bulk shear around 30kts over the western half of the area, so would expect showers to fill in, with a few thunderstorms, but nothing terribly strong. Precipitable water amounts increase to around 0.60 inches, so showers shouldn't be terribly heavy. Have high PoPs (50-70%) in the place for locations west of Columbus, along the foothills and in the mountains. Snow levels will be around 9 thousand feet today but lower tonight and Friday. The probability of 0.20 inches of rain is 20% for today and tonight for locations west of Columbus, with a 5% chance in Billings. The mountains and foothills have a 30-50% chance of 0.20 inches for that time period.
The east (mainly Carter and Fallon counties) will have potential for a strong storm this afternoon, but it appears the risk for severe weather has slide east a bit for today. Highest capes (above 500j/kg) have pushed into the western Dakotas. HRRR does initiate a couple of stronger cells over these two counties around 22z (and this makes sense with an inverted surface trough in place there), then pushes activity into the Dakotas by 01z, so there may be short window of opportunity. Cape was weak through, which limits potential, and given that the highest capes have pushed east, will not mention severe in the that area today. SPC keeps the marginal just southeast of Carter county. Expect pulsing storms there today with small hail potential and locally heavy rain, with PWATs around 0.80 inches. The probability of 0.25 inches of rainfall over the east is 20% for today and tonight over Fallon and Carter counties.
Friday will be cooler with northerly surface winds, with a better chance of showers for the entire area. The chance of showers rise to 60-90% from Billings westward (highest over the mountains and foothills), with a 60% chance of showers over eastern zones.
Precipitable water amounts rise to around 0.70 inches, so showers will be a little heavier with locally heavy rain in play. Models want to focus on locations west of Billings for the heaviest showers, with the GFS putting down around 0.75 inches Friday. NBM is not quite as heavy with the precip, placing a 40% chance of 0.25 inches Friday west of Columbus. At any rate, showers will be more widespread Friday, especially west and over the mountains and foothills, with brief and local heavy rain possible.
Snow levels will fall to around 7 thousand feet Friday, lowering to around 6500 feet Friday night. So the mountains above 7 thousand feet will get a strong shot of wet snowfall. Upwards of a foot is expected Thursday night through Saturday night above 7 thousand feet. NBM is projecting upwards of 15 inches through Saturday night, while WPC was giving upwards of 18 inches. NBM probabilities of 8 inches was still at 80%, with 60% chance of 12 inches. Will upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning, and run it through Saturday night. TWH
Saturday through Thursday...
A Winter Storm Warning will continue for the Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains and Crazy Mountains until Sunday morning. Adverse travel conditions are expected and those in the high country should be prepared for heavy accumulating snowfall.
Saturday, another closed low will eject through the Four Corners into the Plains, following a prior low moving into the northern Midwest. There will be lingering snow and precipitation into Sunday morning, with a the western mountains picking up a few more inches of snow. As for the rest of the forecast area, precip chances will be highest into Saturday afternoon, with 50-90% probabilities from Sheridan to Judith Gap and west. As for locations east of this line, up to 40% prob for precip, with the lowest chances in the northeastern areas. QPF amounts for the weekend range from only a few hundredths in the east, to several tenths, highest amounts for the mtns.
Chances for precipitation will persist through at Tuesday with low to moderate chances. Another wave of energy will bring moderate to high chances Sunday afternoon/evening, with a 50-90% chance for west of Billings. QPF amounts aren't very high with this quick shot, with the mountains seeing up to a 0.1". Lower elevations will have chances for rain showers and a few hundredths of QPF. Broad troughing will move into the region Monday, models are once more depicting another round of low to moderate precip chances, 30-60%, through the day.
Tuesday, zonal flow and some weak ridging will begin to settle in, persisting through the week. With this pattern, warmer temps and drier conditions are forecasted for the area. Highs in the 50s/60s Saturday and Sunday, 60s to 70 Monday and Tuesday, and 70s/80s Wednesday and Thursday.
Matos
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the period.
Chances for precipitation and thunderstorms will increase today. Sites with the best chances for thunderstorms today are KLVM and KBHK, beginning around 20Z. Periods of MVFR are possible with heavier showers and any thunderstorms. Mountain obscurations are likely, with snow showers through the period.
Matos
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 069 048/061 045/059 041/064 043/066 042/067 043/073 2/W 46/W 55/W 35/W 25/T 53/W 12/W LVM 065 042/051 040/056 039/060 040/061 036/063 038/069 6/T 79/T 87/W 55/T 26/T 43/W 12/T HDN 071 046/066 043/061 040/066 041/069 042/069 041/076 1/B 34/W 55/W 24/W 24/T 53/W 21/B MLS 073 046/070 045/059 037/061 039/068 043/067 043/075 2/W 13/W 32/W 11/B 12/W 41/U 11/B 4BQ 074 047/066 045/057 038/059 038/067 042/068 042/076 3/T 24/T 54/W 22/W 12/W 31/B 11/U BHK 075 044/064 041/054 033/056 034/065 039/064 039/071 5/T 46/T 42/W 12/W 12/W 32/W 11/B SHR 068 044/061 042/055 035/059 037/065 039/066 039/075 3/W 45/W 77/W 34/W 23/T 42/W 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Sunday FOR ZONES 67-68.
WY...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBZN BOZEMAN YELLOWSTONE INTL,MT | 10 sm | 50 min | WNW 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 54°F | 36°F | 50% | 29.85 |
Billings, MT,
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