Monday, July24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Nehalem, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:50PM Monday July 24, 2017 1:52 PM PDT (20:52 UTC) Moonrise 6:24AMMoonset 8:52PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 830 Am Pdt Mon Jul 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..N wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 7 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 8 seconds, shifting to the nw at 8 seconds in the afternoon.
Tonight..N wind 15 to 25 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the evening. Wind waves N 6 ft at 7 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue..N wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves N 5 ft at 6 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue night..NW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 4 ft at 6 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 7 seconds.
Wed..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Wed night..NW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Thu..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 3 ft.
Fri..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 3 ft.
PZZ200 830 Am Pdt Mon Jul 24 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pres will continue over the ne pac, with thermal low pres over sw or and nw ca. Gusty N winds and steep seas will continue through at least early Tue. The wind will diminish later in the week as an upper level trough approaches the pac nw.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nehalem, OR
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location: 45.72, -123.88     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 241636
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
931 am pdt Mon jul 24 2017

Synopsis Expect a mix of morning clouds along the coast and lower
columbia river valley, plenty of afternoon sunshine and high
temperatures near to slightly above average for much of the next

Short term Today through Thursday... Overall expect few
appreciable changes to our weather over the coming days.

Southwesterly to westerly flow aloft and low level northwesterly
flow will produce some morning clouds along the coast and lower
columbia river valley. High temperatures will cool closer to
seasonal averages midweek.

The primary issue in the short term is a small thunderstorm threat
across primarily the lane and linn county cascades today and Tuesday.

This is in response to some moisture and instability sneaking its way
up into the region due to an upper level low pressure currently
spinning off the california coast. This low pressure is forecast to
slowly shift eastward over northern california over the next couple
of days. Even though it will technically shift closer to the region
during this time, it appears it will still be far enough away to have
few impacts and given thunderstorms remained east of the region
yesterday, inclined to believe that today won't be too much
different. Model soundings from the cascades support this idea as
well even the GFS model places QPF over eastern lane county this
afternoon. The hrrr and ncar ensemble do suggest that storms over
northern lake and klamath counties or their remnants could sneak
their way towards willamette pass late this evening and overnight so
did keep a slight chance mention for this period, but even this
threat appears marginal.

As the aforementioned upper level low pressure shifts inland,
southwesterly to westerly flow aloft will strengthen slightly
Wednesday and Thursday. This should keep any thunderstorm chances
east of the cascade crest. This will also help to produce more marine
clouds along the coast and lower columbia river valley Wednesday and
Thursday, which should help to cool temperatures elsewhere closer to
seasonal averages. Both the GFS and ec suggest some light showers
could impact the northern coastal zones Wednesday morning, but given
500mb heights, this seems suspicious and will evaluate further with
the afternoon forecast package. Neuman

Long term No changes. Previous discussion from Sunday afternoon
follows... Wednesday night through Sunday... Onshore flow from a series
of weak shortwave troughs will continue through next week. This will
maintain near normal temperatures with low clouds at the coast as
well as inland in the nights and mornings. No chance of precipitation
or thunder during this time. -bishop

Aviation Much shallower marine layer this marine, generally
confined to the coastal strip. Areas of ifr CIGS along the coast
through around 17z. Expect stratus to push back onto the coast
between 03z and 06z tue. Models hint that stratus may penetrate
more inland into the central coastal valleys late tonight.

Elsewhere,VFR to prevail through Tue morning.

Cannot rule out some TCU or CB developing in the cascades e-se of
keug this late this afternoon into the evening. Thunder is not
expected for any of our terminals, but is a possibility in the
lane county cascades, although the likelihood appears less
probable based on latest model guidance.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR through Tue morning. Surface wind gusts
to around 20 kt late this afternoon through the evening. Weishaar

Marine Minimal changes to the current forecast. Strong north
wind continues over the waters today. Several models indicating
20-25 kt boundary layer wind speeds with gusts to 30 kt this
afternoon through late evening. A few gusts to 35 kt can be
expected over pzz255 and pzz275. Latest model runs suggest wind
speeds ease just a bit tue, but will likely need a small craft
advisory for the waters. The far north inner waters may fall just
short of advisory criteria. The pressure gradient and associated
surface and boundary layer wind speeds ease even more wed.

Very steep and choppy sea conditions to persist for the next
couple of days. This is nearly a uni-wave pattern with spectral
guidance showing a wind wave component up to 8 ft at buoy 050
this afternoon, with a minimal background swell. Combined seas
could briefly reach 10 ft at times this afternoon through the
evening. Slightly less fetch and gradually decreasing wind over
the next couple of days will result in less wind wave component.

However, expect choppy conditions to continue through at least
mid-week. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 3 am pdt Tuesday for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 4 pm
this afternoon to 8 pm pdt this evening.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 3 am to
7 am pdt Tuesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 12 mi53 min 50°F1015.4 hPa (-0.9)
46096 34 mi143 min NNW 12 G 14 51°F 55°F1017.7 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 34 mi53 min SW 13 G 16 64°F 72°F1015.8 hPa (-0.9)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi53 min 58°F7 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 43 mi63 min NNW 14 G 16 58°F 58°F7 ft1017.4 hPa (-0.5)56°F
46T29 47 mi43 min NNW 12 G 14 59°F 59°F8 ft1018.1 hPa57°F
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 49 mi53 min 60°F7 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR21 mi58 minWNW 14 G 2110.00 miFair68°F53°F60%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW19
1 day agoNW8NW9
2 days agoSW8SW7W7W9SW5NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW9W4

Tide / Current Tables for Nehalem, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Mon -- 01:28 AM PDT     8.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:24 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:03 AM PDT     -1.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:57 PM PDT     6.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:02 PM PDT     1.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:52 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Garibaldi, Oregon
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Mon -- 01:42 AM PDT     8.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:25 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:30 AM PDT     -2.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:05 PM PDT     6.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:34 PM PDT     1.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:51 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.