Saturday, February24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Nehalem, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:55PM Saturday February 24, 2018 9:56 AM PST (17:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:15PMMoonset 2:38AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 246 Am Pst Sat Feb 24 2018
.small craft advisory for winds in effect through Sunday afternoon...
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through late Sunday night...
Today..NW wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 14 seconds, building to nw 14 ft at 12 seconds. Showers.
Tonight..W wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves W 5 ft at 7 seconds. NW swell 13 ft at 12 seconds. Rain likely.
Sun..W wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves W 5 ft at 8 seconds. NW swell 15 ft at 12 seconds. Showers.
Sun night..W wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves W 3 ft at 6 seconds. NW swell 15 ft at 13 seconds. Showers.
Mon..NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 14 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of showers.
Mon night..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 11 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tue..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 11 ft.
Wed..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 14 ft.
PZZ200 246 Am Pst Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A surface low will move from vancouver island area into western wa this morning. Another system will take a similar track later tonight and Sun. The series of systems through the weekend will result in seas building into at least the mid teens. A quieter period sets up Mon and Tue, then active weather returns.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nehalem, OR
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location: 45.72, -123.88     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 241659 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service
859 am pst Sat feb 24 2018
updated aviation and marine

Synopsis Got snow? We will. Head for the cascades this weekend.

Cool air mass remains over the region into next week. Upper low will
push across the pac NW today, with plenty of showers, and snow in the
mountains. Brief let up in precipitation this evening. But, much
stronger system arrives on Sunday, with rain for the lowlands, and
very heavy snow and winds in the cascades.

Short term Today through Monday... Upper low pushing now digging
into the pac nw, with plenty of showers over western washington and
northwest oregon this am. So far, not so much in way of showers over
the interior lowlands, as the westerly flow has been leading to
enhancing the rainshadowing effect off the coast range. Still think
will have some showers over the interior lowlands, but will be much
weaker than those over the higher terrain.

Temperatures not as cold as earlier thought, with many lowlands in
the middle to upper 30s, and 40s along the coast. This due to
prolonged southerly winds. As such, snow levels are sitting around
1500 feet this am. Even the astoria esrl profiler shows snow level
now up at 1800 feet over astoria. Snow levels will sit rise a tad
more today. Will end the snow advisory for the willapa hills and the
coast range, as appears threat of snow is only on the higher peaks.

Silver lining of this strong westerly flow is the highly favorable
upslope orographic flow for the cascades. Models show 35 to 45 kt of
850 mb flow, and combined with the cool air mass, will have enhanced
precipitation rates over the west slopes of the cascades, and to some
degree also for the coastal mountains. Think will get 6 to 12 inches
of snow in the cascades today, with 2 to 7 inches for the coastal
mountains and cascades foothills, generally above 1000 to 1500 ft.

Will maintain current winter weather advisories the foothills of the
cascades and the higher cascades for today, and end the advisory for
the willapa hills coast range.

Models all indicate decreasing showers later this afternoon into the
evening. So will keep that trend.

A rather wet and vigorous system arrives later tonight into Sunday,
with precipitation spreading into washington later tonight. Snow
levels still at 2000 feet, or slightly higher. This will keep lower
elevations as rain. Precipitation could be heavy at times in the
morning. While precipitable water values of 0.50 to 075 inch are not
all that high, they are higher than have seen in awhile. So, would
expect decent shot of QPF on Sunday. Models vary a bit, but overall
0.50 to 1.00 inch for the coast mtns, and 0.20 to 0.50 inch lowlands.

But with low snow levels, the 0.75 to 1.25 inch over the cascades
will fall all as snow, about 1 to 2 feet of it. Pressure gradients
stay strong over the cascades on Sunday, supporting ridge top
westerly winds of 15 to 30 mph and gusts 35 to 50 mph. With the
powdery snow, these winds will create significant blowing and
drifting of snow. Currently have winter storm watch for the cascades
for late tonight and Sunday, and will let day shift upgrade to
warning. But, very well could see blizzard warning in the cascades
rather then winter storm, due to very windy and snowy conditions.

Again, will let day shift decide this. Not quite as much wind lower
down in the higher terrain of the foothills, but still lots of snow
to fall. Likely to get 9 to 16 inches for late tonight and Sun above
2000 feet.

The cold system will pass the region Sunday night, with decreasing
showers. Snow levels drop again, such that could see minor
accumulations as low as 500 to 1000 feet again. Showers will continue
to decrease through the day mon, and clouds may try to clear from
north to south in the afternoon. But it will be
another chilly day. rockey.

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows... Monday night
through Friday... Fairly active pattern will continue through the long
range. Operational 12z GFS and ecmwf, when compared to the ensembles,
are in fairly good agreement regarding the overall large-scale
details. Another short-wave drops into the area from the northwest
mon night and tue. This system will have a more maritime influence.

Snow levels Mon night will generally be 1000 to 1500 feet, although
down to 500 feet in the gorge and east skamania county. Model
1000-500 mb forecast thickness values will be in the 525-530 dm range
with 850 mb temps around -5c. This system slides through the forecast
area tue. QPF amounts do not look all that impressive, but could be
enough for snow advisory amounts in the S washington and N oregon

Gfs 500 mb spaghetti plots start to show more variation beginning
wed. A deepening upper level trough along the british columbia coast
will allow a more moderate west to northwest 500 mb flow to impact
the area. A leading short-wave is expected to reach the area wed
night. The ECMWF indicates a complex surface low pressure off
vancouver island 12z Thu with an 8-10 mb kast-koth south gradient.

The operational 12z GFS is much different, with a closed low off the
central oregon coast and offshore low-level flow through the gorge.

The ncep GFS ensembles valid 00z Thu are all over the place,
suggesting low confidence in the general forecast. Would tend to
favor the ECMWF at this time and have trended the forecast in that
direction. Eventually, the large upper level trough takes up
residence over the NE pac 00z fri. This would maintain an
unseasonably cool air mass over the region, with snow levels
generally 1000-1500 ft. There is better agreement between the gfs
and ECMWF Thu night and fri, leading to better forecast confidence.

All in all, the extended period will continue the cascade snowpack
improvement, but not expecting any additional valley floor snowfall
during the period. Weishaar

Aviation Cool upper trough will continue sliding southeast
across the area today. Surface low near kpsc at 1630z. A mix of
MVFR andVFR this morning and expect this pattern to hold through
the evening. Snow levels generally 1000 ft or so through 12z sun.

West to northwest 850 mb wind will result in mountain
obscurement. Next warm front reaches the area late tonight and
will result in an increase in MVFR coverage after 09z sun.

Surface wind backs to the south after 06z sun.

Pdx and approaches... Post-frontal air mass over the terminal and
vicinity today. This will bring the typicalVFR with brief MVFR
in heavier showers. West wind at the terminal will back to south
this evening. Weishaar

Marine Surface low has moved to south central washington as of
16z. Gale gusts continuing at buoys 029 and 089 at 16z. Will let
the gale for pzz270 end at 18z and then replace with small craft
advisories. Will also maintain the small craft advisories for
the remainder of the waters. There will be a bit of a lull in
the winds later today into late evening before the next system
drops south into the waters. Gale force wind gusts likely again
over the northern waters late tonight through Sunday morning.

Wind speeds ease Sun afternoon through mon, likely falling below
small craft advisory thresholds by Mon afternoon.

Seas have risen into the mid teens and expect little change
through tonight. The wave fetch is parallel to the b.C. And
southeast ak coast with the core of the larger seas currently
just offshore of vancouver island, b.C. The coastal waters
should see seas peak around 17-18 ft late this morning. Seas
slowly subside later tonight but increase again into the mid and
upper teens late Sun into Mon as more systems maintain the fetch
pointed toward wa & or. Latest enp guidance shows seas falling
just under 10 ft Tue morning. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm pst this afternoon for
cascade foothills in lane county-northern oregon cascade

Winter storm watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for
cascade foothills in lane county-cascades in lane county-
northern oregon cascade foothills-northern oregon cascades.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am pst Sunday for cascades in
lane county-northern oregon cascades.

Wa... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm pst this afternoon for south
washington cascade foothills.

Winter storm watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for
south washington cascade foothills-south washington

Winter weather advisory until 4 am pst Sunday for south
washington cascades.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 2 pm pst Sunday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or
out 10 nm-coastal waters from cascade head or to florence
or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am pst Monday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head
or out 10 nm-coastal waters from cascade head or to
florence or out 60 nm.

Gale watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10
to 60 nm.

Gale warning until 10 am pst this morning for waters from cape
shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 3 am
pst Sunday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 12 mi39 min 46°F1021.6 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 34 mi39 min NW 11 G 18 43°F 40°F1019.4 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi57 min 45°F14 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 43 mi67 min NW 25 G 31 45°F 46°F13 ft1019.7 hPa (+2.3)36°F
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 49 mi32 min 49°F17 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR21 mi62 minW 610.00 miOvercast43°F33°F71%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmS6S8S9S8
1 day agoCalmCalmN4N6N4N6N7NW9N4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE3Calm
2 days agoCalmSE3W3NW4W5W5SW3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmN4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmNW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Nehalem, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Sat -- 01:06 AM PST     2.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:37 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:53 AM PST     7.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:16 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:55 PM PST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:55 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:58 PM PST     5.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Garibaldi, Oregon
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Sat -- 12:40 AM PST     3.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:37 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:02 AM PST     7.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:16 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:19 PM PST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:55 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:50 PM PST     5.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.