Monday, March27, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Felida, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:35PM Monday March 27, 2017 3:45 AM PDT (10:45 UTC) Moonrise 6:03AMMoonset 6:19PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 250 Am Pdt Mon Mar 27 2017
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect until 7 am pdt this morning...
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect from this afternoon through this evening...
In the main channel..Combined seas 7 to 9 feet through this evening. However...seas will temporarily build to near 10 ft with breakers during the ebb around 5 am this morning...and to near 12 ft with breakers during the strong ebb around 515 pm this afternoon.
PZZ200 250 Am Pdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak surface trough will move through the waters this morning. Another frontal storm system will drop southeastward into the waters Tuesday. A developing low pressure will likely result in the front stalling and strengthening Tuesday night and early Wednesday across our waters. High pres builds over the ne pac Thu and Fri...potentially remaining through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Felida, WA
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location: 45.73, -122.75     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 270955
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
255 am pdt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis An upper level trough will maintain showers today,
decreasing during the afternoon and evening as high pressure builds
into the region. This will bring a brief break in the rain for most
of the forecast area tonight and Tuesday. The next frontal system
will cause rain to increase along the coast Tuesday night, then
spread inland for a generally wet day Wednesday. The parent upper
trough will keep showers into Thursday, then perhaps some drier and
milder weather Friday as high pressure builds across the region.

Another system may bring some rain back for next weekend, but details
on this remain uncertain.

Short term (today through Wednesday)... The progressive pattern
continues across the north pacific and into the pac nw, with a fast,
mostly zonal jet stream extending from china to the u.S. West coast
and british columbia. Only brief and modest changes are expected in
this overall pattern for the next 5-7 days at least; mostly in the
wed/thu time frame. This pattern will likely continue to push
frontal systems into the pac NW every 2-3 days, with the next one
likely to affect our region Tue night/wed.

Focusing on what's going on now, showers persist in onshore flow
coupled with an upper level trough pushing into the pac nw. Goes-16
low-level water vapor channel seems to show a decent dry slot
approaching the oregon coast, which will probably be the back edge of
any organized shower activity. The relatively drier air should result
in increasing sunbreaks today, but 00z nam/gfs soundings suggest
low-level lapse rates will probably be steep enough to allow shallow
showers to persist for much of the day... Especially over the higher
terrain. Odot webcams suggest snow levels have lowered below
government camp (4000'), and the esrl profiler at troutdale seems to
confirm that snow levels are around 3500' at the moment. Expect snow
levels to remain in the 3000 to 3500 ft range today, but relatively
strong late march solar energy should allow for wet or slushy roads
over most passes by midday today. Still, anyone traveling across the
cascades should be prepared for snow today, especially this morning.

We will maintain the winter weather advisory for snow in the cascades
through this afternoon. Snotel reports seem to suggest 5-10 inches
have already fallen, with another 2-5 inches likely in snow showers

Warm advection aloft and subsidence associated with higher pressure
building into the region will likely bring an end to the showers this
evening. A flat upper level ridge will temporarily push the pacific
jet stream north toward vancouver island tonight and tue, allowing
for a mostly dry and mild day Tuesday for areas south of a newport to
portland line. Eugene may push 60 degrees Tuesday depending on how
many breaks there are in the high clouds. Given the flatness and
positive tilt to the upper ridge, it appears unlikely that complete
clearing will occur anywhere in our CWA tue. SW washington and the
north coast of oregon may get clipped with occasional light rain tue
as a shortwave trough races across bc/wa.

Models are finally showing decent agreement that an upper trough from
the gulf of alaska will generate a surface low off the pac NW coast
tue night, pushing another occluding frontal system onshore late tue
night/wed. This will cause rain to increase along the coast tue
night, spreading inland late Tue night and wed. 00z ecmwf/06z nam
suggest this system will have a bit better of an atmospheric river
associated with it than the past couple of systems, so rainfall
amounts may be heavier... With up to 2.5 inches in the higher terrain
and 1-2 inches along the coast. Significant downsloping will probably
keep rainfall totals around 0.50 inch for most inland valleys. With
much of our coast already in the warm sector, southerly gradients may
be sufficient to produce some decent wind with this system tue
night/wed, especially along the coast. Gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible for beaches and headlands, with gusts up to 35 mph possible
for the willamette valley wed. Due to the prior ridging, snow levels
will likely be well above the passes until the upper trough pushes in
behind the front late wed/wed night. Weagle

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)... Main challenge in the
extended this morning was to put together a forecast disregarding the
00z gfs, which seems to cut off an upper low way too soon off the pac
nw coast during the weekend. Strongly prefer the 00z ECMWF for days
4-7, which remains more progressive through the weekend. The ecmwf
shown far more run-to-run consistency than the GFS has demonstrated
the last few days; both with our midweek system and the evolution of
the next system over the weekend. Model agreement is better through
Friday, showing our Wednesday rain tapering to showers Wed night/thu
as a cool upper trough pushes in behind our Wednesday frontal system.

The upper trough will cause snow levels to drop briefly below the
passes Wed night/thu, with a few inches of snow likely in the
cascades from the post-frontal showers. As mentioned earlier, leaned
heavily on the 00z ECMWF for the forecast fri-sun, which still shows
decent warming/drying Fri and temps possibly reaching the 60s for the
inland valleys. The ECMWF then increases high clouds Fri night, with
a weak frontal system bringing a chance for rain Sat and cooler temps
with a chance of post-frontal showers Sunday. Weagle

Aviation A weak surface trough approaching the coast will
bring enhanced shower activity through mid-morning. Think that
there will be a mix ofVFR and MVFR conditions during this time.

Showers will decrease somewhat through the rest of the day as
higher pres builds in aloft and begins to stabilize the
atmosphere. Conditions should be predominantlyVFR from late
morning through tonight, but occasional brief MVFR possible with
any heavier showers.

Kpdx and approaches... Showers continue through tonight. Heavier
showers possible this morning, with a mix ofVFR and MVFR. Then
expect predominantlyVFR the rest of today and tonight. Pyle

Marine A weak surface trough is moving through the coastal
waters this morning. There will be occasional gusts of 20 to 25
kt, but they shouldn't be frequent enough to justify a small
craft advisory. Then higher pres will build over the waters later
today and tonight. A frontal boundary will sag south into the
waters on tue, bringing southerly winds gusting 25 to 30 kt. A
low forming along the front will approach from the southwest tue
night into Wed morning. This will strengthen the wind field and
may bring some gale force gusts. The low is modeled to move
onshore over vancouver island Wed afternoon. Then high pres will
begin to build over the NE pac, bringing a period of benign
conditions with northerly winds Thu and fri. There is some
uncertainty going into next weekend, but it looks likely that the
ne pac high will persist.

Seas are running around 7 to 8 ft this morning. A larger westerly
swell will be arriving today. Seas will rise back above 10 ft
later this morning, and are expected to reach 12 to 14 ft
tonight. Seas will then remain above 10 ft for the next few
days. Then should finally drop below 10 ft on Thu and remain
below 10 ft into next weekend. Pyle

Pqr watches/warnings/advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm pdt this afternoon for
cascades in lane county-northern oregon cascades.

Wa... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm pdt this afternoon for south
washington cascades.

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 pm pdt Tuesday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 7 am
pdt this morning.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 3 pm
this afternoon to 8 pm pdt this evening.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 28 mi46 min 45°F1013.7 hPa (+1.1)
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 63 mi46 min 51°F1014 hPa (+1.0)
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 63 mi46 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 46°F1012.9 hPa (+1.2)

Wind History for Longview, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scappoose, Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR7 mi53 minNNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy43°F42°F97%1013.8 hPa
Pearson Airfield, WA9 mi53 minESE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy47°F46°F97%1014.4 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR11 mi53 minS 810.00 miLight Rain47°F44°F90%1014.5 hPa
Portland, Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR17 mi53 minS 58.00 miLight Rain46°F44°F93%1014.2 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR22 mi53 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast48°F45°F89%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from SPB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3S9S10
1 day agoW3CalmW4CalmCalmS4S8W6CalmS65N4N4N4N3N3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE7SE5SE9SE7S83SE5S8S9SE10SE6SE8SE754

Tide / Current Tables for Knapp Landing, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Knapp Landing
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Mon -- 02:03 AM PDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:13 AM PDT     8.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:24 PM PDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:20 PM PDT     8.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:59 PM PDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Kelley Point, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Kelley Point
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Mon -- 02:51 AM PDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:13 AM PDT     8.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:12 PM PDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:19 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:20 PM PDT     8.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:59 PM PDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.