Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cannon Beach, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:32PM Friday March 24, 2017 5:02 PM PDT (00:02 UTC) Moonrise 4:28AMMoonset 2:54PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 227 Pm Pdt Fri Mar 24 2017
.small craft advisory for winds in effect until 7 pm pdt this evening...
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt early evening...becoming sw and easing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt overnight. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. S swell 7 ft at 9 seconds...shifting to the W 8 ft at 11 seconds. Slight chance of tstms in the evening. Showers.
Sat..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the morning. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 10 seconds. Showers likely.
Sat night..S wind 5 to 10 kt...becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of rain after midnight.
Sun..SE wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves se 6 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 11 seconds. Rain.
Sun night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 5 seconds. SW swell 9 ft at 9 seconds... Subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Showers.
Mon..SW wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 8 ft. Showers likely.
Mon night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 11 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 12 ft.
Wed..W wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 11 ft.
PZZ200 227 Pm Pdt Fri Mar 24 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A ridge of high pressure will build in over the coastal waters tonight and Sat. The next strong front will arrive Sunday bringing another round of gale force winds.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cannon Beach, OR
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location: 45.83, -123.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 242221
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
321 pm pdt Fri mar 24 2017

Synopsis An upper level trough will continue to bring showers to
southwest washington and northwest oregon tonight, with a slight
chance of thunderstorms this evening. High pressure will cause
showers to taper off late Saturday, but the next frontal system will
likely bring more rain Sunday followed by showers Monday. Periods of
wet weather is expected to linger through the end of next week.

Short term (tonight through Monday)... Water vapor satellite
imagery shows the base of the upper level trough starting to move
onshore this afternoon, with a weak shortwave disturbance embedded in
southwesterly flow aloft. This will help maintain showers across the
forecast area tonight and Saturday. Doppler radar imagery shows
scattered showers streaming across northwest oregon and southwest
washington this afternoon, with the strongest showers generally north
of salem as expected.

Now, to address the elephant in the room... Will we see thunderstorms
this afternoon? The answer is maybe! Based on model parameters,
conditions remain favorable for thunderstorm development across the
forecast area through the evening. All recent model runs show surface
based CAPE around 300 to 500 j/kg with 0 to 3 km bulk shear around 25
to 30 kt. This suggests that if thunderstorms are able to develop
this afternoon/evening they have the potential to become organized.

Given our low freezing level, around 4000 ft, it would not take a lot
for any storms that do develop to produce some small hail. This is
all good news if you want to see thunder. Now for the bad
news... Visible satellite imagery reveals abundant cloud cover across
the forecast area. There have been some breaks in the clouds this
afternoon, but they have been brief and not widespread enough to lead
to any significant diurnal heating. This is limiting our surface
based instability. Given the lack of clearing this afternoon decided
to remove the mention of small hail from the forecast. Will continue
to keep thunderstorms in the forecast through this evening based on
some mixed layer CAPE and terrain based winds. The threat of
thunderstorms will come to an end later this evening as we lose our
diurnal heating.

Showers look to linger through Saturday as the upper level trough
slowly moves east of the cascades. Models then show weak high
pressure briefly building across the pac NW by Saturday night. This
will bring an end to the current round of showers and a period of dry
weather late Saturday/early Sunday. Rain looks to return by Sunday
morning as another frontal systems moves across the forecast area.

This system looks very similar to yesterday's system, but with more
qpf in the cascades. As such, would not be surprised to see a winter
weather advisory issued for the cascades on Sunday with snow levels
around 4000 ft and new snow accumulations around 6 to 8 inches
possible. Rain will turn to showers by late Sunday, with showery
conditions continuing through Monday. /64

Long term (Monday night through Friday)... 12z models remain in
fairly good agreement with regard to the long wave pattern of the
upcoming work week. They show the upper trough from this weekend
departing east becoming positioned over the northern rockies by
early Monday evening. A flat upper ridge crosses the region Tuesday
through early Wednesday before a flat upper trough takes its place
Wednesday night. The trough deepens as it crosses the pacnw Thursday
which allows for a little higher amplitude ridge to build for
Friday. Unfortunately (depending on your preferred weather), this
low amplitude upper pattern does not lend toward any day long dry
period for the upcoming work week. As of today's model runs, best
chance may end up being Friday as the ridge builds, however the gfs
is showing a short-wave riding over the top with rain affecting the
northern tier.

The overall cloudy/rainy/snowy sequence will keep temperatures a
little cooler than normal during the day and warmer at night. Snow
levels will stay around 4-5000 feet except for Wednesday and Friday
where they rise to 5-7000 feet. /jbonk

Aviation Showery weather pattern will continue tonight into sat.

Vfr conditions will tend to be most widespread, but there will
remain a chance for MVFR conditions at all locations
through 21z sat.

Kpdx and approaches... MainlyVFR conditions tonight and Sat as a
showery weather pattern continues. There will likely be a couple of
temporary periods of MVFR CIGS both tonight and through 21z sat.

Marine Winds were gusting up to 30 kt Fri afternoon ahead of a
weak front approaching the coast. Expect winds to settle back down
later this evening, dropping below small craft criteria as the front
moves inland and a ridge of high pres builds over the coastal waters
late tonight and sat. Another front will move across the coastal
water sun, with south winds increasing ahead of the front late sat
night into sun. Winds appear likely to reach into the low end gale
category with the front sun. Another frontal system is poised to
move across the coastal waters tue, with peak winds expected to
gusts close to 30 kt.

As an active weather pattern continues through this weekend and into
next week, there will be several competing swell trains. The short
period southerly swell this afternoon will subside tonight, but a
building westerly swell at the same time will tend to keep seas up
around the 10 ft mark through most of the night. Southerly winds
will rebuild steep short period seas Sun back up into the 11 to 13
ft range.

Pqr watches/warnings/advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 11 pm pdt this evening for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am pdt Saturday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds until 7 pm pdt this evening for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
10 nm.Columbia river bar-waters from cascade head to
florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 6 pm
pdt this evening.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 2 am to
6 am pdt Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 19 mi45 min 50°F1014 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 28 mi45 min S 7 G 8.9 48°F 46°F1012.6 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 28 mi33 min 47°F13 ft
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 43 mi33 min 49°F13 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR23 mi68 minSSW 1210.00 miOvercast48°F44°F86%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6E4SE3E7E7E8SE8E3S10
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1 day agoW14
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SW9S7SW7S6S5SE6S5SE5SE6SE3S4SE4SE4E4SE5SE5E7SE9SE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Nehalem, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Nehalem
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Fri -- 05:27 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:35 AM PDT     2.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:46 AM PDT     6.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:53 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:12 PM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:34 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.554.23.42.62.12.12.73.95.16.16.365.242.71.50.60.20.41.42.94.45.5

Tide / Current Tables for Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Brighton
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:36 AM PDT     2.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:27 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:24 AM PDT     7.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:54 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:14 PM PDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:34 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:41 PM PDT     6.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.95.24.23.32.82.73.24.25.36.476.96.253.41.90.80.30.51.42.84.35.66.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.