Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinac Island, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:02PM Saturday November 18, 2017 8:24 PM EST (01:24 UTC) Moonrise 7:33AMMoonset 5:41PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 402 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Scattered snow showers through the night. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201711190515;;611549 FZUS53 KAPX 182102 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 402 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ345-190515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinac Island, MI
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location: 45.86, -84.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 182340
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
640 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Near term (tonight through Sunday)
issued at 345 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
high impact weather potential: slick spots on area roadways possibly
developing tonight. Snow covered and slippery roadways possible
Sunday.

Lake effect kicking in...

synoptic moisture peels out to the northeast through this evening as
low pressure continues to track by to our south. Progressively
colder air then advects in behind the departing system increasing
over lake instability through Sunday. This will lead to the
development of northerly flow lake effect rain and snow showers
later this afternoon which will change to snow early tonight. The
flow will back overnight into the north northwest before finally
settling into the northwest late tonight into Sunday as lake effect
snow continues. Activity may become enhanced and more widespread for
a time Sunday as a short wave drops down through the flow. Areas
roads may become slick due to falling temperatures and any rain
showers transitioning over to snow showers. Snowfall accumulations
tonight expected to range from 1 to 2 inches along and west of us
131. Accumulations Sunday of 2 to 3 inches are expected in the
normal snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper.

Short term (Sunday night through Tuesday)
issued at 400 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
pattern forecast: active pattern continues through next week.

Background pattern remains positive pna, with high amplitude
ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the eastern. A
series of clippers running along the baroclinic zone, and through
the great lakes, will provide periodic reinforcement of the
eastern troughing with colder air helping to deepen the troughing.

The currently negative, and forecast to become more so, arctic
oscillation will certainly help the colder air push south as well.

Much of the week will see this up and down mix of brief height
rises being suppressed by a clipper before a more prolonged cold
push next weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: timing will likely be an
issue, as is often the case with these active clipper patterns.

Another rain to snow transition expected Tuesday.

Any lingering lake effect Sunday night will gradually be shut down
through the morning Monday as high pressure to our south backs the
flow to the SW and increase waa. This will moderate temperatures a
bit, with Monday and Tuesday high temperatures near 40. Though the
Tuesday high will likely be overnight for many areas, as the next
clipper in line will arrive with colder air and precipitation by
early afternoon. Those east of i-75 may see the arrival later in the
afternoon. Precipitation will arrive mostly liquid, with a fairly
quick change over to snow through the afternoon. This should carry
into Wednesday with lake effect. Winds will begin to pickup Monday
night, remaining gusty through Tuesday night.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 345 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
pattern remains progressive through the extended, with clippers
moving through the flow working to suppress height rises trying to
work into the region. This will bring a very familiar period of
clipper system precip, followed by some lake effect, then a brief
clearing. Signs point to a more prolonged visit of cold air starting
Sunday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 640 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
widespread mixed precip is departing NE lower mi, as low pressure
advances across lake erie. Lake effect showers (mixed rain snow)
are already developing into parts of NW lower mi. These will
become more extensive, while gradually turning to all snow as
colder air enters the region. Best snowfall amounts will occur
east of tvc. Do expect occasional vsbys restrictions at tvc,
perhaps into ifr territory at times late tonight and Sunday.

Otherwise, MVFR toVFR CIGS will prevail.

Nnw winds will be gusty tonight and Sunday, while gradually
backing to the wnw on Sunday.

Marine
Issued at 345 pm est Sat nov 18 2017
lower end gale force gusts are expected for late this afternoon and
tonight for much of lake michigan and huron. This is due to a
tightening pressure gradient on the backside of developing low
pressure that crosses the SRN and eastern great lakes. Solid
advisory winds elsewhere. NW winds taper off some heading through
Sunday afternoon and night while also backing more out of the west,
but gusty conditions still expected due to deep overlake
instability. Rain and snow showers will transition over to lake
effect snow showers tonight into Sunday evening.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Sunday for lhz345-346.

Gale warning until 7 am est Sunday for lhz349.

Gale warning until 11 am est Sunday for lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Sunday for lmz341.

Gale warning until 7 am est Sunday for lmz323-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Sunday for lsz321-322.

Near term... As
short term... Am
long term... Am
aviation... Jz
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 26 mi55 min NNW 25 37°F 44°F31°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 46 mi45 min NNW 9.9 G 17 36°F 1001 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI1 mi31 minNNW 13 G 215.00 miLight Snow36°F32°F90%1000.3 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI15 mi31 minNW 1110.00 miOvercast37°F33°F88%999.7 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI22 mi31 minNNW 1010.00 miLight Rain36°F32°F86%1001.3 hPa

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE6
G14
SE9SE9SE5E6E3CalmCalmNE3N5N9N13
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1 day agoNE6N4NE6CalmSE5E5SE5SE9S7S8
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2 days agoW11
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G26
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N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.