Saturday, May26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinac Island, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 9:19PM Saturday May 26, 2018 12:24 AM EDT (04:24 UTC) Moonrise 5:12PMMoonset 3:47AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1000 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Overnight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light winds. Patchy fog. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Light winds. Scattered showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201805261000;;532950 FZUS53 KAPX 260200 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1000 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ345-261000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinac Island, MI
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location: 45.86, -84.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 260355
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1155 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Update
Issued at 957 pm edt Fri may 25 2018
warm and somewhat moist airmass is in place across northern mi.

However, we are not as moist as places to our west (pwat off 00z
sounding was 1.29 at grb, just 1.07 here at apx). Grb thus had
more instability; around 2k j kg of SBCAPE vs 1300 at apx. Of
course, that instability is waning as darkness falls. We presently
have a relative lull in precip, with a cluster of decaying
showers storms having departed eastern upper mi. More isolated
convection from NE lower mi is over lake huron. There is still
plenty of deep convection upstream, with a large cluster of storms
over the mnm esc area the most notable.

Upstream convection will tend to weaken with time as instability
continues to fade. That said, showers storms should push back into
parts of northern mi, especially north of m-72. Am inclined to
boost pops overnight in central and northern sections. Temps
weren't changed much, but did lower in some parts of eastern upper
mi.

Climate note: a month ago today, we still had a two-inch snow
depth here at the office. Seems like a long, long time ago.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 340 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Shower and thunderstorms possibilities...

high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms will impact the
region tonight. Stronger storms will be found in eastern upper
michigan this evening.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Afternoon composite analysis reveals
a short-wave trough axis slowly pressing into the western great
lakes region. Surface low pressure is across south-central canada
with a trough extending down through the upper midwest. Plume of
deeper moisture and best instability still resides through the
midwest up into the western u.P. Although we have managed to
generate around 1500 j kg SBCAPE across interior northern lower
michigan this afternoon, and a corridor showers thunder across
north-central lower mi.

To the north, convectively induced MCV has rolled out of northern
wisconsin and now up into the central u.P. And has sparked a few
clusters of stronger storms up that way.

Primary forecast concerns... Convective development and trends.

Ongoing "pop-up" showers storms across north-central lower mi will
fade away as we head through the early evening hours, and not
likely to cause too many issues other than some smaller hail and,
of course, lightning. But, will have to keep an eye on stronger
storms coming through the central u.P. And the door peninsula,
which do have the potential to produce strong-severe weather
over the next few hours.

After that, I still anticipate additional showers storms to
develop across wisconsin as we head into the evening hours (the
severe thunderstorm watch out there was a giveaway). Any
convection that does develop to our W NW may try to work down into
our area later this evening and overnight. But, not overly
confident on how much actually survives the trip with diminished
instability downstream, no substantial forcing to maintain it and,
of course, the big cold body of water to cross. In fact, many
high-res guidance solutions have very low rain chances for us
through the night. I will maintain chancy pops across our area for
later this evening and overnight. But really, I would not be
surprised if hardly anyone gets rain.

Short term (Saturday through Monday)
issued at 340 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Weekend rain chances...

high impact weather potential: scattered thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday
pattern synopsis forecast: a pair of shortwave disturbances will
move over the region Saturday and Sunday. Pwat values over 1" will
remain overhead as well. High pressure will once again start
building into the region on Monday.

Primary forecast concerns: primary concern remains the potential for
some scattered thunderstorms over the weekend. Still doesn't look
like a washout, but some afternoon pop-up storms could cause some
inconvenience for the areas they move over. Most areas will remain
dry a majority of the time, but pop-up showers could still be a
brief annoyance with outdoor activities.

Shear still doesn't look favorable for any kind of organized severe
threat Saturday, with 15 to 20kts of 0-6km bulk shear. There are
still a few areas Sunday with bulk shear getting into magnitudes
more supportive of organized convection, but it remains small areas
and differs across guidance. Wouldn't be surprised to see some small
hail with storms that can get going, but again expect most to be
short lived pulse storms.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 340 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Lots of uncertainty next week...

the pattern remains a bit nebulous through next week, and the
differences in guidance are quite large. There is a range from
nothing all to week to rain potential almost daily. A lot of this is
likely coming from guidance struggling with a bit of a rex block
setup with what is now sub tropical storm alberto in the gulf and
high pressure spanning across much of the eastern conus. Just how
and when that breaks down, and how the remnants of the weakening
alberto behave as they move through the tennessee valley will remain
details to be worked out over the coming days. For now the consensus
blends will be left.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1154 pm edt Fri may 25 2018
some showers storms.

Area of showers t-storms crossing lake mi, will bring showers to
pln apn and thunder to tvc for part of the night. After a lull in
the morning, a showers storms could redevelop Sat afternoon, in
our continued warm humid airmass.

Light sw-erly winds.

Marine
Issued at 349 pm edt Fri may 25 2018
gusty winds will persist through the early evening hours leading
to small craft advisory conditions for parts of lake michigan and
lake huron.

Otherwise, winds will lighten this evening and overnight,
remaining mostly out of the south southwest through Sunday. The
north end of lake huron will be the exception, with winds Saturday
afternoon out of the southeast east roughly as you get north of
thunder bay. Chances for scattered thunderstorms will continue
through the weekend, which could produce some small hail and some
localized gusty winds.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Ba
short term... Am
long term... Am
aviation... Jz
marine... Am


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45175 8 mi34 min E 3.9 G 3.9 56°F 47°F1007 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 8 mi54 min Calm G 1.9 60°F 1005.9 hPa53°F
SRLM4 26 mi54 min S 12 61°F 46°F55°F
WSLM4 27 mi54 min SSE 7 59°F 49°F1006.8 hPa53°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 36 mi54 min E 1.9 G 2.9 1005.8 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 37 mi54 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 62°F 1006.6 hPa61°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 39 mi54 min SSW 1.9 G 5.1 57°F 1005.7 hPa57°F
45022 40 mi34 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 45°F1 ft1007.3 hPa53°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 43 mi54 min E 8 G 8.9 1005.8 hPa
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 46 mi44 min S 5.1 G 7 55°F 1006.1 hPa
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 46 mi54 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 57°F 1006.1 hPa
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 46 mi54 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 58°F 1006.4 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI1 mi29 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F61°F100%1006.4 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI15 mi29 minSSE 310.00 miFair62°F57°F86%1006.1 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI22 mi30 minS 310.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F61°F90%1006.3 hPa

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW6NW4SW4SW8SW8SW11
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W5N3N4CalmS6S3
1 day agoSW9W7SW9W6SW7SW7SW7SW4SW6W5W7
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2 days agoW6W6W6W9W9W7W7W6CalmW6W5SW6W5SW5SW10SW8SW12
G16
W6W6W8W6SW6W9W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.