Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinac Island, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 9:19PM Friday May 26, 2017 3:23 AM EDT (07:23 UTC) Moonrise 6:00AMMoonset 9:16PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1014 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
Overnight..Light winds. Isolated showers and patchy drizzle after midnight. Patchy fog through the night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Light winds. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light winds. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201705261015;;211059 FZUS53 KAPX 260214 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1014 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LHZ345-261015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinac Island, MI
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location: 45.86, -84.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 260244
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1044 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Update
Issued at 921 pm edt Thu may 25 2017
moisture continues to pinwheel back west into northern michigan.

Just enough forcing to keep areas of drizzle and very light
showers, especially across northeast lower michigan. Trend through
tonight should be for less precip with time, and what there is becoming
increasingly confined to areas east of interstate 75. Low clouds,
however, look much more stubborn to yield, and may actually see
them fill back in where some breaks in the overcast currently
reside. Likely to see some patchy fog as winds slacken. Will need
to monitor this potential with some guidance suggesting more
aggressive fog development than currently depicted in the
forecast.

Near term (tonight through Friday)
issued at 254 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Somewhat improving wx to wrap up the work week...

high impact weather potential... None.

Surface low in n-central ohio continues to move slowly ne. Some
associated moisture continues to push back into northern mi from the
e, resulting in generally light precip over central and eastern
sections. We're already on the far west edge of this system, and as
it continues to pull out to the ne, our wx will improve. Somewhat.

Tonight Friday... Secondary development over the NE states will
contribute to the diminishing influence of the present ohio low. But
a lobe of deeper moisture will hang back across lake huron and
surroundings, only really washing out Friday morning. Even then, the
window between that departing, and developing warm advection cloud
cover ahead of a low in S central canada, will be small. It does not
seem likely that we will see the unrelenting sunshine places west of
lake mi are enjoying today.

Models differ somewhat as to how long the grunge will linger. Most
recent rap runs favor precip ending in NE lower by midnight, whereas
the NAM keeps some precip in NE lower mi all night long. The going
forecast is steered in between, which is fine, though the NAM has
not done well today (not the biggest surprise). Could perhaps still
need a likely pop to start the evening in parts of NE lower and near
drummond isl, otherwise chancy pops or less that will (slowly) fade
away during the night. Leftover soupy low-level airmass will be fog-
prone tonight with any breaks in the cloud cover.

For Friday, we have considerable mid high clouds streaming in, and a
cu field will flare up beneath it during the day. Stratus could well
be hanging on in parts of NE lower mi, though that should mix out
toward midday. Some steepish mid-level lapse rates cruise by sw
sections thanks to warm advection aloft (just above 7 c km above
600mb). Would not rule out a stray shower or two, but certainly most
of northern mi will be dry on Friday. Sunshine will be somewhat
limited though, which will hinder temps. Would expect eastern upper
to see a bit more Sun than northern lower.

Min temps tonight rather mild, near 50f. MAX temps Friday
mid upper 60s, a few spots (including tvc) pushing 70f.

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)
issued at 254 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Mostly dry Saturday; increasing rain chances Sunday...

high impact weather potential... Minimal, though a few thunderstorms
possible on Sunday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Weak upper ridge will flatten out as its
axis crosses the upper great lakes Friday night. A weak tilted
shortwave will then ripple across northern michigan through Saturday
morning with a corresponding surface low crossing downstate. Upper
flow pattern then turns SW and becomes more amplified heading into
Saturday night and Sunday as a deep upper low over central canada
wobbles southeast into the upper midwest. This will carry a few weak
disturbances through northern michigan. With sufficient moisture in
play (pwats of 0.8" to 1" or higher) these features will result in
nuisance showers at times over the weekend. The better chances for
showers look to be Friday night for mainly parts of northern lower
as the shortwave moves through, and then the second half of Sunday
for all of northern mi as the deeper trough approaches with stronger
forcing.

Saturday will feature a partial decrease in clouds through the day
as well as 850mb temperatures rising from around 8c to near 12c.

This will result in a nice jump in surface temperatures with highs
in the mid 70s across interior northern lower, possibly flirting
with 80 in a few spots as suggested by a few GEFS sref members.

Cloudier skies, showers, and cooler temperatures aloft will result
in highs being a few degrees cooler on Sunday.

Primary forecast concerns... Rain chances through the weekend will be
the main forecast challenge.

Now showing a slightly stronger shortwave tracking a bit farther
north, the 25.12z nam GFS both came in wetter than their 06z
counterparts for Friday night across northern lower. At this point,
the nam's northern jump and QPF looks overdone, so will keep the
better shower chances just brushing our far south. Can't also rule
out isolated showers across eastern upper, but the better forcing
will be found over lower mi.

Light prevailing winds will allow for the possibility of lake
breezes developing Saturday afternoon that could trigger an isolated
shower or two (very low probability). Otherwise it looks to be a
benign weather day and the pick day of the holiday weekend.

Rain chances will increase heading into Sunday, especially towards
afternoon. There will also be some marginal instability (sbcapes
perhaps approaching 1000 j kg in spots) as a ridge of higher theta-e
noses into northeast lower. Will therefore introduce a chance of
thunder in Sunday's forecast.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 254 pm edt Thu may 25 2017
unsettled weather expected through much of next week as deep h5
trough sits over the great lakes. This will also bring temperatures
near, and slightly below, normal through the week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 1042 pm edt Thu may 25 2017
not a whole lot of change from earlier, with more ifr MVFR
producing low clouds pinwheeling southwest across the area
through early this morning. Still expect the worst conditions to
occur at kapn, with more persistent ifr CIGS and occasional light
rain and drizzle. Already seeing plenty of mist, especially at
kapn. This trend should continue, and will definitely still need
to be on the lookout for more fog development. CIGS expected to
gradually lift later today as low level drying becomes more
aggressive. Light winds through the duration.

Marine
Issued at 254 pm edt Thu may 25 2017
somewhat gusty NE winds will diminish this evening as they back to
the NW overnight. Wind direction will vary heading into Friday and
the holiday weekend, but wind speeds will remain rather light.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Msb
near term... Jz
short term... Mek
long term... Alm
aviation... Msb
marine... Mek


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45175 8 mi24 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 46°F1008 hPa (+0.0)
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 8 mi54 min N 8.9 G 9.9 52°F 1006.6 hPa49°F
SRLM4 26 mi84 min N 14 55°F 48°F50°F
WSLM4 27 mi54 min NNW 12 55°F 47°F1007.8 hPa54°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 36 mi54 min NW 5.1 G 6 1007.5 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 37 mi54 min N 2.9 G 4.1 53°F 1007.3 hPa51°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 39 mi54 min NNW 7 G 9.9 56°F 1005.7 hPa56°F
45022 40 mi34 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 44°F 42°F1 ft1008.7 hPa44°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 43 mi54 min W 7 G 9.9 47°F 1007.9 hPa47°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 46 mi44 min N 7 G 8.9 55°F 1007.5 hPa
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 46 mi54 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 1007.4 hPa45°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 46 mi54 min W 4.1 G 5.1 51°F 1007.3 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island - Mackinac Island Airport, MI1 mi49 minN 57.00 miOvercast53°F53°F100%1007.4 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI15 mi30 minNW 410.00 miOvercast53°F52°F99%1006.8 hPa
Pellston, Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County Airport, MI22 mi30 minN 710.00 miOvercast55°F51°F87%1007.6 hPa

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE7NE9
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NE8NE7NE8NE8NE8NE4N5NE6N3N5N5
1 day agoNE6NE7E7E7E9
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NE7E8E6E9NE5NE6NE7NE8----------
2 days agoSW3W5CalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE3NE5E3SE5SE5SE3E4NE3E3SE3NE4NE5NE6NE6N4NE4N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.