Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seaside, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 9:08PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 6:35 AM PDT (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 12:35PMMoonset 12:38AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 200 Am Pdt Wed Jun 20 2018
Today..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog early in the morning.
Tonight..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 11 seconds. Occasional drizzle.
Thu..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Occasional drizzle in the morning.
Thu night..W wind 5 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy drizzle and fog.
Fri..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy drizzle and fog.
Fri night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 3 ft.
Sun..NW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 3 ft.
PZZ200 200 Am Pdt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will quickly move across the waters today, with a brief disturbance on Thursday. Stronger high pressure rebuilds on Friday and likely sticks around through the weekend, with thermal low pressure over northern california and southwestern oregon.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seaside, OR
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location: 46, -123.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 201007
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
306 am pdt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis an upper level disturbance will approach from the
southwest today, with increasing threat of showers and strong
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, especially over the
cascades and foothills. A chance of thunderstorms will extend into
the north part of the willamette valley. Some thunderstorms will
contain heavy rain hail and strong gusty winds. Strong onshore flow
will follow this system into western oregon tonight with
marine clouds and much cooler weather on Thursday. Ridging Friday
result in drier and warmer conditions through the end of the week.

Short term Today through Friday... Mild morning across the region,
with many areas still int he lower to middle 60s at 2 am. Marine
stratus increasing along the coast, along with patchy fog.

Despite warm air mass in place, have lowered afternoon temperatures a
bit. Think that with increasing southerly flow, will see dew point
temperatures climbing a bit, and combined with bit more in way of
clouds over region this afternoon, should see temperatures today
similar to that seen on tue. So, will keep afternoon highs in middle
to upper 80s, with warmest being close to 90 deg over north
willamette valley and clark county, extending to the east.

Now, big story for today is the approaching upper level disturbance,
which will pass across the region this afternoon, and east of the
cascades later this evening. What makes this interesting is the
timing. Models continue to show high CAPE for this area (1500 to 2500
j kg). With upper level divergence increasing this afternoon,
combined with the afternoon heating, should see scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms develop by early afternoon over parts of
eastern lane county. These will spread north quickly later in the
afternoon into the evening, as far north as the south washington
cascades by early evening. Model soundings show steepening lapse
rates this afternoon, giving potential for gusty outflow winds of 45
to 60 mph and quarter-sized or larger hailstones under the stronger
storms. Again, this potential will generally stay over the cascades
and foothills.

Once the upper disturbance shifts over the cascades, sometime this
evening, will see significant increase of low-level onshore flow.

This will be felt in eugene and corvallis by mid to late afternoon,
where south to southwest winds will be picking up and cooling the air
mass. This one of the reasons eugene and corvallis will likely see
only a few showers, if that, this afternoon before ending. But, this
increasing onshore flow will spread more stable marine air into the
interior, then push down the willamette valley by early evening.

But there is a catch. Mid-level 700 mb flow still shows some
southeasterly component for a time late this afternoon into the early
evening for areas north of salem. This indicates potential for storms
to drift northwestward off the cascades and into the central and
north willamette valley and clark county. Have seen this scenario
many times in the past. Thunderstorms running north along the
cascades start to arc slightly back over the lowlands. At same time,
the northward moving leading edge of marine air will push across the
portland vancouver metro late in the afternoon early evening. This
will act like a cold front, enhancing the instability enough to pop
scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms as the leading
edge shifts north. That window is small, but seems to be between 4 pm
and 8 pm today.

As previously mentioned, the cascades will get the brunt of the
thunderstorms. Precipitable water values running rather high for this
time of the year. Very good chance that 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain
could fall over parts of the cascades this afternoon and evening,
with some of the rain falling in a very short time. This will enhance
potential of some flash flooding in small creeks and draws. Those
areas that have seen heavy burning last summer, such as eagle creek
and potato hill, could experience significant runoff of rain. Will
have to keep close eye on that potential this afternoon.

Again, will see increasing onshore flow tonight, with thunderstorm
threat shifting east of the cascades by midnight. Deepening marine
layer tonight, with plenty of clouds and occasional drizzle. Will be
a lot cooler on thu, with mostly cloudy skies. Will see some sunshine
returning later in the day, with inland temperatures only in the
lower to middle 70s at best. Not much change Thu night and fri, as
will see marine clouds reform Thu night. Models still indicate
ridging slowly developing later fri. So, will go with morning clouds
giving way to afternoon sunshine, along with seasonable temps. This
would be 60s on coast, lower to middle 70s inland. rockey.

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows... Friday night
through Tuesday... Fairly good agreement in the model guidance for the
start of the long term period. Heights will rise as a shortwave ridge
moves across the area with any residual showers coming to an end
Friday night (mostly lingering north of the columbia river in the
terrain of the willapa hills and south washington cascades). This
will push temperatures into the mid to upper 70s Saturday across the
interior and a little warmer Sunday. However, a weak front will push
into the coastal water and approach the coast on Sunday. For most of
the area, the primary impact will be some increasing clouds, but some
light rain or drizzle along the coast cannot be ruled out. The parent
low will trek into north-central b.C. Early next week, but models
begin to differ considerably in terms of the depth of the trough. For
now, have increased cloud cover and trended temperatures back toward
seasonal normals for the start of next week, most closely following a
blend of models due to the timing differences, and holding off on any
mention of pops across the forecast area for now. cullen

Aviation Expect mostlyVFR conditions in the interior the next
24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms look to develop across portions
of the interior this afternoon and evening, with the best chance
for thunderstorms in the cascades and foothills, and possibly in
the northern portions of the forecast area. Any thunderstorm that
forms will bring brief periods of reduced flight conditions along
with small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain.

Low stratus is expected to fill in along the coast this morning.

However, the far north coast may not see stratus this morning as
weak high pressure over SW washington could keep just enough
offshore flow to keep them at bay, but this may allow for a brief
period of patchy fog to develop early this morning. Stronger
onshore flow develops this afternoon which will bring a deeper
marine layer and MVFR CIGS to the coast this evening.

Kpdx and approaches... PredominatelyVFR the next 24 hours, but
isolated thunderstorms could develop later this afternoon and
evening along the eastern approaches which could bring brief
periods of ifr flight conditions to the terminal. 64

Marine High pressure over the NE pac will strengthen today,
but weak gradients over the waters will keep winds fairly light.

A weak disturbance will turn winds more westerly on Thursday, but
expect wind gusts to remain below 20 kt. Stronger high pressure
rebuilds over the waters on Friday and sticks around through the
weekend, with thermal low pressure building into northern ca and
southern or. This will bring the return of our northerly flow
pattern later this week, with gusty winds to 30 kt possible later
this weekend.

Seas will remain around 3 to 5 ft through the end of the week,
but will build to around 7 to 8 ft this weekend. Seas may become
choppy at times this weekend as the northerly winds increase. 64

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 16 mi48 min WSW 9.9 G 13 59°F 65°F1015.4 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 19 mi36 min 58°F5 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 31 mi48 min 56°F1016.2 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 32 mi46 min W 3.9 G 7.8 56°F 59°F5 ft1016 hPa (+0.5)56°F
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 40 mi41 min 61°F5 ft
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 49 mi48 min S 2.9 G 2.9 64°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR11 mi41 minWSW 87.00 miOvercast58°F57°F100%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3SW3Calm6N6N9W7W6W7W5NW7NW7NW5W5W4W4CalmCalmS3SE3CalmCalmSW8
1 day agoSW5SW6SW6SW13SW12
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2 days agoCalmE3CalmN3NW3N8W8W9W5SW7W8SW9SW7SW8SW5SW6SW3SW5SW4SW4SW3SW3SW6W4

Tide / Current Tables for Seaside, 12th Avenue bridge, Necanicum River, Oregon
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Seaside
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Wed -- 01:38 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:04 AM PDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:52 AM PDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:19 AM PDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:34 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:08 PM PDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM PDT     5.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:09 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.510.81.22.33.64.44.343.32.51.60.90.30.10.41.42.94.25.15.24.94.23.3

Tide / Current Tables for Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon
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Warrenton
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Wed -- 01:25 AM PDT     2.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:38 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:52 AM PDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:15 AM PDT     6.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:34 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:41 PM PDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:24 PM PDT     8.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:10 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.22.334.25.46.46.96.75.84.32.81.50.60.51.12.54.25.87.287.975.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.