Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
De Tour Village, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 8:44PM Thursday August 17, 2017 9:02 PM EDT (01:02 UTC) Moonrise 1:05AMMoonset 4:26PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ322 155 pm edt Tue aug 8 2017 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... 5nm east of mackinac bridge to presque isle light mi including bois blanc island... Lake huron from 5nm east of mackinac bridge to presque isle lt to the us/canadian border beyond 5 nm from shore... Lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5nm offshore... Norwood mi to 5nm west of mackinac bridge including little traverse bay... SEul choix point to 5nm west of mackinac bridge... St ignace to false detour channel... St. Marys river point iroquois to e. Potagannissing bay... Straits of mackinac within 5 nm of mackinac bridge including mackinac island... At 154 pm edt...doppler radar indicated a line of strong Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds up to 33 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm north of beaver tail point to 18 nm southwest of point patterson...moving southeast at 25 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4606 8395 4610 8385 4595 8348 4583 8359 4577 8350 4560 8447 4570 8485 4557 8503 4550 8501 4536 8571 4565 8604 4594 8592 4610 8510 4596 8482 4611 8468 4604 8412 4623 8436 4625 8424
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ322 Expires:201708081930;;073860 FZUS73 KAPX 081755 MWSAPX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 155 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2017 LHZ345>347-361-LMZ341-342-362-LSZ322-081930-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near De Tour Village, MI
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location: 46.02, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 172300
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
700 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Near term (tonight through Friday)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Showers storms into the evening...

high impact weather potential... A few thunderstorms remain
possible through early evening... Marginal to slight risk for
severe storms.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Deep well defined short wave stacked
low has advanced into northern wisconsin western upper michigan
this afternoon. Occluded warm front arcs through green bay then
down through the SW part of the CWA where dewpoints have nudged
into the lower 70s... Impressive for northern michigan. Main
widespread batch of showers embedded thunderstorms have pushed
north east of the area at this juncture... While dry slot rotating
around the southern side of the low has punched into lower
michigan.

With the juicy airmass and some heating... MLCAPE values have
increased to a modest 500+ j kg and there are additional showers
that have popped across eastern wisconsin western lower michigan
that will move through the region over the next several hours. But
by far... The better instability is well to our south into ohio
where more vigorous thunderstorms are underway.

Primary forecast concerns... Thunderstorm potential. Stacked low
will cross the upper peninsula later tonight and into ontario on
Friday. Warm occluding front slides through the region over the
next several hours along with narrow axis of instability
along ahead of the front. But despite dewpoints pushing
70f... Instability is not all that impressive owing to very slow
temp recovery today and a moist atmosphere anemic lapse rates
aloft. Nonetheless... A few storms remain possible into early
evening. And with stronger winds aloft and backed low level flow
some shear to work with... Any storms could pose a threat.

Wrap around deeper moisture low clouds showers return later
tonight as upper low tracks through northern michigan... And
persists into Friday. Looking like yet another cloudy cooler
august day on tap for Friday with temps running nearly degrees
below normal.

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Generally pleasant weekend weather...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: low pressure plaguing the great lakes late this
week will gradually lift into western quebec by Saturday morning.

Aside from a moisture-starved shortwave moving through the region
Friday night into Saturday morning, gradual mid-level height
rises weak ridging and attendant surface high pressure will be the
dominant feature driving northern michigan's sensible weather
through the upcoming weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: any lingering lake induced
showers Friday night and pops Saturday as the bulk of shower storm
activity passes by to our south.

Aside from a small chance for a few lingering northwest flow lake
induced showers Friday evening, precip chances continue to diminish
as deep layer moisture strips away to the northeast. By late Friday
night, a well-defined shortwave and attendant weak surface low over
northern il continues to race eastward through southern mi northern
in and into northern oh by midday Saturday. Latest trends continue
to suggest that the vast majority of the CWA will remain dry as
showers storm remain well to our south. Wouldn't be shocked to see a
few sprinkles or a light shower, mainly in the far southeast portion
of the forecast area, but partly sunny skies and temperatures 5-10
degrees warmer than Friday will be the rule. Relatively weak
boundary layer flow should allow for lake breezes to develop... And
despite decreasing synoptic support moisture Saturday afternoon
behind the departing trough axis, it's not totally out of the realm
of possibilities that a rogue lake breeze induced shower or two pops
across sections of northeast lower. Rather low confidence in that
thought precludes much more than slight chance pops at this point,
but something to monitor over the next 24-48 hours. High temps
Saturday right around normal... Ranging from the mid-upper 70s.

Generally quiet weather is expected during the daylight hours Sunday
under mostly to partly sunny skies with temperatures warming another
5 or so degrees over Saturday. Highs above normal ranging from near
80 north to the low-mid 80s elsewhere.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
height falls working into the region early in the week will bring
the best chance of widespread showers over the extended. Timing
continues to favor Tuesday for the arrival of widespread rain. Can't
completely rule out some isolated showers Monday with a weak
boundary passing through and good return flow starting to increase
moisture as high pressure slides through the ohio valley Sunday.

Blends are still bringing at least partly cloudy skies for Monday,
which seems reasonable. Will have to see how strong and how long the
moisture advection affects the area prior to Monday. Temperatures
expected to run a bit above normal heading into midweek, with a
cooling trend later in the week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 700 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
scattered showers will continue to impact all northern lower
michigan TAF sites tonight thru much of Friday as deep low
pressure tracks eastward thru the great lakes region. A
thunderstorm is also possible into the evening hours... But the
chance is too small to include in the TAF for now. Winds will
shift to the SW and eventually to the W nw... Strengthening to 15
to 25 kts on Friday.

Marine
Issued at 331 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
gusty southeasterly winds today will be replaced with gustier
westerly winds for Friday... As low pressure tracks through
northern michigan into ontario. Small craft advisories on all the
nearshore areas will likely be extended into Friday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 5 am edt Friday for miz008-015-017-
018-024-030-036-042.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Friday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Friday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Friday for lsz321-322.

Near term... Ba
short term... Mg
long term... Mk
aviation... Mr
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 9 mi45 min SE 16 G 21 66°F 1002.2 hPa66°F
SRLM4 27 mi63 min 67°F 69°F65°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 29 mi45 min E 9.9 G 12 1002.1 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 31 mi45 min ESE 5.1 G 9.9 65°F 1003 hPa64°F
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 44 mi45 min SE 8.9 G 13 65°F 1003.2 hPa57°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 47 mi45 min ESE 8.9 G 17 65°F 1003 hPa

Wind History for De Tour Village, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Drummond Island Airport, MI1 mi69 minSE 87.00 miOvercast66°F65°F100%1003.7 hPa

Wind History from DRM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4E4SE3CalmE4E3E3E6SE8SE7E8
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1 day agoNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E4SE6SE5SE6SE6SE8S8SE6SE7SE4SE4
2 days agoS3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3N6N3W4W6W6W9
G14
NW5W4NW5NW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.