Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warrenton, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:38PM Saturday November 17, 2018 10:11 AM PST (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:32PMMoonset 12:56AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 235 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
In the main channel.. * general seas...near 5 ft through Sunday. * first ebb...around 1230 pm Saturday. Seas near 5 ft. * second ebb...around 1230 am Sunday. Seas near 5 ft. * third ebb...around 115 pm Sunday. Seas near 6 ft.
PZZ200 235 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will strengthen east of the cascades today and continue through the weekend. A more active weather pattern with stronger pacific frontal systems may begin as early as Tue or Wed and will likely continue through at least the end of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrenton, OR
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location: 46.17, -123.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 171642 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service portland or
840 am pst Sat nov 17 2018
updated aviation marine

Synopsis Dry chilly weather for the weekend and early next week as
high pressure and east winds persist. The weather pattern will change
to a wetter one Tuesday night when the first of many fronts moves
across the region.

Short term Today through Tuesday... High pressure will dominate the
weather the next several days. East winds are developing, and drier
air downsloping over the cascades is clearing skies and reducing fog
west of the cascades. The clearing is not widespread as low clouds
are hanging on in lane county, parts of the cascade foothills, and
across extreme southwest washington early this morning. As the east
winds get stronger and mix lower to the surface later this morning,
the remaining clouds and fog will clear. As of 2 am, the troutdale to
dalles surface pressure gradient is -4 mb which is close (1 mb
weaker) than the 06z nam12 forecast for 1 am. Satellite imagery shows
stratus is piling up on the east side of the cascades this morning.

Think this stratus will start to spill into the upper hood river
valley and the central columbia river gorge by tonight.

The east pressure gradient should strengthen a couple more millibars
through today before strengthening to around 8 mb tonight. Cold air
damming on the east side of the cascades Saturday night through
Sunday will result in more of a gap wind flow through the gorge.

Expected MAX gusts for this offshore event should be on the order of
65-75 mph for the most exposed areas such as crown point, 50-60 mph
at corbett and 35-45 mph for kttd. This event does not look as strong
as the previous one and not anticipating the need for a wind advisory
at this time.

High resolution models hint that there will be a southerly wind
reversal along the coast late tonight. Low clouds currently hugging
the northern california coast line will move north with these south
winds and possibly make it to the coastline near florence and newport
early Sunday morning. However, the east winds will likely keep these
clouds offshore.

The east winds continue at the lower levels Sunday, but the winds
aloft become southerly as an upper low moves into the east pacific.

South winds aloft may bring haze from the california wildfires north
and over NW oregon. Would like to see the influence the winds aloft
on the smoke today before adding any mention of haze or smoke into
the forecast though. The upper low moves further east into california
Monday and the winds aloft turn east again, but remain weak. If any
smoke or haze makes it to the region on Sunday, it will likely move
offshore on Monday. Expect mostly clear skies tonight through Monday
night except for the hood river valley and central columbia gorge
where low clouds will likely persist.

The upper ridge axis moves east Monday and Tuesday continuing the gap
east winds while an approaching cold front stalls offshore. Clouds
ahead of the front will move into the area Tuesday, but expect rain
to hold off until Tuesday evening. ~tj

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows... Tuesday night
through Friday. Forecast models continue to not be in great agreement
for much of next week, but confidence is increasing that the next
frontal system will at least begin to approach at some point Tuesday.

The pattern then appears to shift to a more active time, with a
series of disturbances making their way through the region. While
confidence in the overall pattern is increasing, confidence in the
finer details - including timing - remains lower than average.

Therefore, those that may be traveling around the thanksgiving
holiday should stay aware of potential changes to the forecast in the
coming days. Cullen

Aviation Vfr across much of the area as of 1630z. The main
exception is MVFR stratus in the south willamette valley
extending east to the lower cascade foothills. This area will
gradually dissipate through the morning. Offshore flow
strengthens today, with gusts 35-45 kt at the west end of the
columbia gorge. The offshore low-level flow and east 850 mb flow
will help to dry the lowest levels. Model numerical guidance
suggests ifr or worse will return to keug tonight.

Pdx and approaches...VFR skc through Sun morning. At 16z the
kpdx-kttd gradient was -0.1 mb, which is typically sufficient for
east wind to surface at the terminal. The kttd-kdls gradient was
-5.5 mb, with the latest guidance showing it peaking around -8 mb
later today. Gusts around 25 kt can be expected at the terminal
through tonight and up to 35 kt near kttd. Weishaar

Marine No change to the current marine forecast. Will continue
with the current small craft advisory for wind. The primary
wind-prone regions will be adjacent to the coastal gaps, but
widespread gusts to 25 kt appear to be a possibility as the
offshore flow should be fairly deep. Wind speeds slowly diminish
sun as the offshore pattern weakens over the waters.

Seas to hover at 5 to 7 ft through Sun morning, then 4 to 5 ft
by Sun afternoon. Seas become more wind driven through early
next week.

Longer range forecast guidance suggests the pac NW will likely
return to an active weather pattern with frontal systems
beginning to affect the waters by midweek. Seas to 15 ft possible
late next week, with the enp model suggesting 20 ft wave heights
for buoy 089 Thu night. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 10 pm pst this evening for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or
out 60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 8 mi42 min N 5.1 G 8.9 47°F 51°F1023.5 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 11 mi42 min 53°F4 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 30 mi82 min ENE 18 G 19 51°F 54°F4 ft1022.9 hPa (+1.0)42°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 37 mi42 min ENE 8.9 G 9.9 47°F 52°F1024.9 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 39 mi42 min 55°F6 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 42 mi42 min 52°F1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR2 mi17 minE 15 G 2010.00 miFair50°F41°F71%1023.1 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN4NW3NW6NW7NW7NW46E8NE5NE8NE12NE8NE11E11E8E8CalmE5E13E12E12E15E15
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1 day agoN4SE3N4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE3SE3CalmSE4E4E3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS8S83E7E5E4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3NE4E3E4E5SE4E4CalmSE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon
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Warrenton
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Sat -- 12:56 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:08 AM PST     1.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:19 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:54 AM PST     7.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:32 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:59 PM PST     2.82 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:46 PM PST     6.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.721.71.92.73.85.16.37.17.4764.93.93.12.83.13.94.85.66.36.45.95

Tide / Current Tables for Chinook, Baker Bay, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.