Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warrenton, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:50PM Saturday May 25, 2019 9:27 PM PDT (04:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:54AMMoonset 10:42AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 258 Pm Pdt Sat May 25 2019
In the main channel.. - general seas...6 to 8 feet through Saturday evening, then 4 to 6 feet Saturday night and Sunday. - first ebb...around 1115 pm Saturday. Seas building to 8 feet. - second ebb...around 11 am Sunday seas building to 7 feet. - third ebb...around 1215 am Monday. Seas building to 5 feet.
PZZ200 258 Pm Pdt Sat May 25 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. An upper level low will move across the pacific nw coastal waters tonight. Weak high pressure will then linger over the waters through at least Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrenton, OR
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location: 46.17, -123.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 252200 rra
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
weather service portland or
300 pm pdt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis Cool and showery weather contiues today as another upper
level low moves south through the pac nw. Snow levels will be down
to the higher cascades passes today, although no significant
accumulations are expected. Warmer weather is expected Sun and mon
as ridging over the NE pac builds into the region. However, there
will be potential for cascades thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.

Short term Tonight through Tuesday... Memorial day weekend is off
to a rather cool and wet start. A closed upper level low is apparent
as a circulation on satellite imagery just off of southern vancouver
island as of 2 pm. The low is modeled to drop nearly due south,
riding just offshore of the washington and oregon coasts through this
evening, then moving into northern california late tonight. The low
will be bringing plenty of moisture onshore, and the fcst models are
in good agreement that a period of widespread moderate shower
activity will develop over the northern half of the CWA this
afternoon, then spread through the southern portions of the cwa
tonight. Radar shows precipitation starting to pick up over the nw
portions of the fcst area over the past hour or two, so it appears
that the models are on the right track. Total rainfall amounts
generally look to be in the 0.25-0.5 inch range across most of the
region through tonight. The lane county cascades and foothills look
like they may see the highest amounts, with some locations
potentially reaching close to an inch of rain. With all of the clouds
and showers around, high temps are looking like they probably won't
make it out of the 50s today, which is a good 10-15 degrees below
average.

The upper level low impacting the region today will be down around
the bay area of california by Sun morning. Expect precipitation to
drop off fairly sharply from north to south tonight. There will
likely be some low clouds around to start on Sunday, but with
low-level flow turning more northerly and 850 mb winds out of the
east, expect clouds will break out fairly quickly Sunday morning.

This should allow for much more sunshine on Sunday, along with
temperatures signficantly warmer than today. The lowlands should see
highs recover back into the mid 70s.

With the upper low sitting over central california, the mid and upper
level flow will be out of the northeast on Sunday. The fcst models
are suggesting taht there will be be some pretty decent instability
around the region, with anywhere from 500-1000 j kg over the
cascades and portions of the interior lowlands. The latest hi-res
models suggest that there is a good chance that we will see some
thunderstorms developing over the cascades and foothills in the
afternoon and early evening hours. With the NE steering flow, any
storms that do develop would have a chance of drifting west into
eastern portions of the willamette valley. However, the overall flow
is pretty weak and the shear profile is rather unimpressive, so there
is considerable uncertainy as to whether storms would hold together
long enough to make it into the valley. However, it is also a
possibility that we may see some surface-based convection in the
valley, with the model soundings suggesting the southern valley might
have the best chance. Decided to extend the slight chance of thunder
down into the eugene area with the latest fcst update.

The upper level low will eject east into the great basin on Monday.

The main impact of this for our region will be that the flow will
turn from northeasterly to more northerly. As a result, the thunder
threat does not appear to be quite as high on Mon as on sun. However,
will maintain a chance of storms in the cascades Mon afternoon and
evening. For the rest of the region, expect a mainly dry and sunny
day, with highs again in the mid 70s. There are some indications that
southerly winds may develop along the coast mon, which result cooler
temps and more clouds at the coast. Tue looks to be a near repeat of
Monday. Pyle

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday... Ridge of high pressure
remains in place over western canada. The high is far enough north
to allow for shortwave disturbances to slide south and clip our area
with a few chances for showers, mainly in the linn and lane county
cascades. Otherwise, expect fairly nice weather for the rest of the
forecast area through midweek, with marine clouds on the coast and
partly cloudy skies inland. Temperatures will be near seasonal for
this time of year, only a few degrees above normal inland. Next
weekend a more zonal flow pattern sets up over the pacific, but high
pressure remains fairly dominant over the pacific northwest into
next weekend. -mccoy

Aviation Predominantly MVFR conditions across the region with
light rain drizzle ongoing. The next disturbance will move in from
the north, increasing rain through the afternoon and evening.

Coastal areas may see more of a showery mode to precipitation, as
they will be somewhat less stable. Expect rain to slowly taper
off from north to south overnight, but MVFR is likely to linger
for most of the forecast area through around daybreak Sunday.

Kpdx and approaches... Higher MVFR to lowVFR CIGS expected this
afternoon, with increasingly MVFR conditions and steady rain
late afternoon and into early tonight. Rain decreases overnight
but expect MVFR CIGS to linger through sunrise Sunday.

Marine Seas are holding at 10 to 12 feet this afternoon, with
the influence of a fresh swell holding conditions higher.

Meanwhile, winds across the outer portions of the coastal waters
continue to gust to 20-25 kt this afternoon. Have maintained the
small craft advisory for winds through 7 pm as a result. These
stronger n-nw winds will likely keep seas above 10 ft into this
evening, but gradually easing to 9 feet late. However, dominant
periods will likely remain at 9 to 10 seconds, so opted to extend
the advisory for hazardous seas a little longer, through 11 pm
for the inner waters and 5 am for the outer zones. Weaker
gradients Sun night through early next week will generally result
in wind speeds 15 kt or less. Seas eventually fall to around 5
ft Sun night or Mon as winds remain moderate Monday and Tuesday.

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 7 pm pdt this evening for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am pdt Sunday
for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 11 pm pdt this
evening for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 8 mi46 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 51°F 58°F1011.5 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 11 mi58 min 56°F7 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 30 mi38 min NNW 7.8 G 12 52°F 55°F9 ft1012.2 hPa (-0.5)46°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 37 mi46 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 55°F1012.1 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 39 mi28 min 55°F9 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 42 mi46 min 53°F1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR2 mi33 minWSW 410.00 miOvercast49°F46°F90%1011.9 hPa

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Last 24hrSW3SW3SW3CalmS3CalmCalmS3S4S4SW5SW4W4W6W8NW11NW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon
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Warrenton
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Sun -- 01:22 AM PDT     3.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:22 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:52 AM PDT     6.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:34 AM PDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:44 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:49 PM PDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:44 PM PDT     6.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.53.64.155.86.36.46.15.24.12.91.91.31.11.52.43.64.85.96.66.86.35.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chinook, Baker Bay, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.