Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Watersmeet, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:12AMSunset 8:51PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 9:08 PM CDT (02:08 UTC) Moonrise 9:22AMMoonset 11:36PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ241 /o.con.kmqt.ma.w.0026.000000t0000z-170613t2315z/ 620 Pm Edt Tue Jun 13 2017
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 715 pm edt... For the following areas... Black river to ontonagon mi... Lake superior from saxon harbor wi to upper entrance to portage canal mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border including isle royal national park... Ontonagon to upper entrance of portage canal mi... Saxon harbor wi to black river mi... At 618 pm edt...strong winds associated with a decaying Thunderstorm complex that moved through late this afternoon have been observed by several marine observations platforms and ships across central lake superior. This includes a 56 knot gust at rock of ages and a 49 knot gust at the western lake superior buoy over the past hour. Hazard...northeast wind gusts to 50 knots. Source...marine weather stations and ship reports. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. Locations impacted include... Rock of ages light...the western lake superior buoy and the upper entrance of portage canal. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected. && lat...lon 4787 8964 4827 8853 4814 8855 4789 8923 4790 8918 4786 8923 4790 8890 4790 8900 4810 8859 4811 8855 4719 8861 4718 8863 4723 8864 4711 8873 4712 8858 4683 8934 4656 9043 time...mot...loc 2218z 270deg 32kt 4824 8837 4751 8807 hail...0.00in wind...49kts
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ241 Expires:201706132315;;181351 FZUS73 KMQT 132220 MWSMQT MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 620 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017 LSZ240>242-263-132315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watersmeet, MI
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location: 46.22, -89.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 272328
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
628 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017
updated aviation portion for 00z TAF issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 258 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017
showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and Wednesday
evening, with heavy rainfall possible.

The large scale pattern across north america will briefly
deamplify the next couple days, as the upper trough currently over
the great lakes region reforms back over the rockies. The pattern
will become slowly progressive and gradually reamplify, with the
new trough passing through the great lakes region during the
upcoming weekend. By independence day, the trough should be over
eastern north america with another trough back near the west
coast, and broad ridging in between.

The large scale pattern should result in temperatures fairly
close to seasonal normals, though with day to day variations due
to precipitation and differences in cloud cover. The westerlies
will remain fairly energetic for late june, so precipitation
amounts will probably end up above normal for the period.

Short term Tonight and Wednesday
issued at 258 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017
surface high pressure over illinois today, along with an upstream
mid level ridge will keep the forecast area mostly dry through 12z
Wednesday. Ongoing thunderstorms are expected to move into
central north central wisconsin around 12z in warm advection
ahead of an approaching mid level short wave. Advection of warm
and moist air ahead of the system is forecast to have pwats of
1.5 inches or more across the area. Models were all showing
significant amounts of QPF in central and or northern wisconsin
during the day on Wednesday.

Spc day 2 convective outlook had much of the area in a marginal
severe risk and parts of central wisconsin in a slight risk of
severe. The risk of severe storms looks to be higher to the
southwest where MUCAPE and shear values are higher, but mucapes
are still expected to be 500+ j kg over most of the area.

Have cooler high temperatures for Wednesday due to abundant
cloud-cover and rainfall.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
issued at 258 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017
the coverage and intensity of convection Wednesday evening will
depend on earlier-day storms. Opted to keep likely pops going
into the evening, with a sharp downward trend after midnight.

Other than some low pops across the far north, the blended
guidance continued to have a dry forecast for Thursday. As
mentioned yesterday, with a relatively weak surface pressure
pattern across the area and lingering moisture from the rains
expected Wednesday and Wednesday night, it's hard to rule out the
development of some showers thunderstorms during peak heating.

But will stick with the dry forecast for now and take another
look tomorrow.

The next substantial chance for rain will probably arrive either
late Thursday night or Friday morning, as a wave develops and
rides northeast along the front stalled to our south. Models
differ on the specifics, though most suggest just light-moderate
amounts, centered over east-central wisconsin. Of most concern is
the ECMWF which showed much heavier precipitation in east-
central wisconsin. Will stick with the more modest pops and QPF of
the model blend for now with the idea the prior convection could
shove the front even a little farther south than currently
forecast.

Precipitation chances during the weekend will depend on small
shortwaves rotating through the large scale trough crossing the
region. There should be a diurnal component as well, with mid-
afternoon to early evening being the most favored time for
precipitation. The forecast for Monday is dry, though any slowing
of the eastward progression of the large scale trough could result
in some light precipitation Monday afternoon as well. The fourth
of july looks dry at this point, with highs near or a little above
seasonal normals.

Aviation For 00z TAF issuance
issued at 626 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017
expect mainly dry andVFR conditions most of the night as surface
high pressure drifts to the east and a mid level ridge moves to
central wisconsin by 12z Wednesday. Increasing southerly winds
aloft will bring llws to central and north central wisconsin
starting late tonight. Scattered showers and storms expected
starting Wednesday morning with lowering CIGS and vsby. Scattered
ifr by midday.

Marine
Issued at 258 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017
southerly winds will increase across the nearshore waters
Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will cause winds to increase
into the 25 to 30 knot range, with a few gusts around gale force
at times, especially across the lake michigan nearshore waters.

Waves will increase with the increasing winds, with the highest
waves across the lake michigan nearshore waters. Planning to go
with a high end small craft advisory at this point. Any boaters
planning on traveling on Wednesday and Wednesday night should
follow future forecasts closely.

Hydrology
Issued at 258 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017
periods of heavy rainfall are likely with a widespread 1 to 2
inches across much of the state Wednesday and Wednesday night. The
greatest potential for locally heavier rainfall will likely be
with any training thunderstorms along the warm front. This could
cause rivers, that are already above bankfull, to rise and bring
the threat for flooding.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Beach hazards statement from Wednesday morning through Thursday
morning for wiz022-040-050.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Mg
long term... ... Skowronski
aviation... ... .Jkl
marine... ... ... Mg
hydrology... ... Mg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 66 mi89 min SSW 2.9 G 8 73°F 1011.2 hPa
PCLM4 - Portage Canal, MI 83 mi89 min S 1.9 G 2.9 63°F 1011.9 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Land O' Lakes, Kings Land O' Lakes Airport, WI5 mi2.2 hrsSSW 7 G 1510.00 miFair71°F42°F36%1013.9 hPa
Eagle River Union Airport, WI20 mi2.2 hrsWSW 810.00 miFair69°F43°F39%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from LNL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4W5W7NW4NW7NW4CalmNW5SW4SW5W8
G15
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1 day agoNW5W3W4W5NW8NW5NW9NW8NW6NW5NW5NW5NW7N12
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N7NW6NW7NW9
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2 days agoCalmNW4CalmCalmNW4NW6N5CalmNW3W3NW3W3NW5N3W3CalmCalmW9N5W3W3NW5NW4W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.