Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ilwaco, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:44PM Monday November 12, 2018 4:27 PM PST (00:27 UTC) Moonrise 11:52AMMoonset 8:58PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 244 Pm Pst Mon Nov 12 2018
In the main channel.. -general seas...combined seas 2 to 3 feet through Tuesday morning, building to around 6 ft following the ebb Tuesday evening. -first ebb...around 730 pm Monday. Seas near 4 ft. -second ebb...around 830 am Tuesday. Seas near 4 ft. -third ebb...around 815 pm Tuesday. Seas near 6 ft.
PZZ200 244 Pm Pst Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Winds will become southerly tonight into Tuesday as offshore low pressure stalls west of the waters. A weakening cold front then crosses Wednesday. High pressure builds over the waters for Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ilwaco, WA
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location: 46.3, -124.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 122220
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
219 pm pst Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis High pressure centered over the pacific northwest today
will shift east tonight and Tuesday. A weak frontal system moves
across western washington and northwest oregon Tuesday late Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. Onshore low-level flow continues
Wednesday. Dry conditions look to return Thursday and persist into
the weekend. There is the potential for another round of east wind
Friday night through Sunday.

Short term Tonight through Thursday... Main short-term weather
issue continues to be the east wind. At 21z the kttd-kdls gradient
had lowered to -9.8 mb. This was almost 2 mb stronger than the 12z
nam forecast. Typically, the nam, among others, tends to be about 2
mb too low on the gradient during these east wind episodes. The kttd
profiler indicates the east wind core (about 2000 feet above the
surface) is slowly easing early this afternoon. Also, the profiler
data suggests the core layer will continue to become more shallow the
remainder of the day and through tonight. Crown point had a peak gust
of 86 mph earlier, but shortly before 21z indicated gusts to 69 mph.

The 12z NAM maintains a -6 mb kttd-kdls gradient at 14z tue, which is
still good enough for peak gusts around 50-60 mph for crown point and
35-40 mph at the west end of the gorge.

The synoptic pattern today is characterized by a sharp 500 mb ridge
axis centered along the coast at 21z. Satellite imagery indicates an
impressive-looking frontal boundary stretching from a parent low in
the gulf of alaska to a cold front along 135w. The bulk of the energy
will be directed through western canada as the jet stream is forecast
to remain along 50 degrees latitude. The offshore gradient continues
to weaken overnight through tue. Models tend to weaken the offshore
gradient too soon and would not be surprised to see some east wind
lingering through the western gorge into Tuesday evening. The
aforementioned front weakens as it approaches the coast with the
leading edge reaching the south washington coast Tue afternoon.

Overall, this system is not very impressive, considering it will
encounter a fairly strong ridge. The bulk of the precip will be over
sw washington, the north oregon coast and coast range Tue night
through Wed morning. Areas south of a newport to albany line may not
get any precip. Surface high pressure strengthens Wed night and have
included patchy fog for the coast and most interior valley areas.

Northwest flow aloft Thursday coupled with on-shore low-level flow
should result in considerable clouds across much of the area, but any
shower threat will be to the north. Weishaar

Long term Thursday night through Monday... Deterministic models
remain in good agreement through much of the long term period and
continue to show a sharp upper level ridge building across the pac
nw. This will likely keep conditions dry through the weekend under
weak offshore flow. Given that we are generally within our fog
season, suspect conditions are ripe for overnight fog development in
wind protected valleys in the interior through the weekend. The
forecast becomes more uncertain early next week as models start to
diverge significantly, but the general trend is to swing a weak
front across the forecast area on Monday or Tuesday so will keep
some slight chance pops across the region during this time. Given
the current pattern expect rather seasonable temps through early
next week, with little day to day change. 64

Aviation Vfr across the area. Only potential cig vis impact will
be 13 12-15z at keug where shallow ground fog will be possible
across the runways at times. Other concern is for gusty winds exiting
the columbia gorge for the next 20 hours or so. Strongest winds will
impact kttd with gusts 30-35 kt for much of tonight. Winds across the
rest of the metro terminals will be notably weaker but they could
knock on llws thresholds through about 12 22z with a 30-40 kt peak
near 1500 feet agl.

Pdx and approaches...VFR flight conds through 14 00z. Main
concern will be gorge outflow bringing east surface wind gust
potential around 25 kt through early evening. Aloft, winds of
30-40 kt are likely centered around 1500 agl but sharply decrease
above 2500 ft agl. Shear conditions somewhat ease after 13 02z.

Jbonk

Marine Winds over the waters have gradually eased today as
expected and decided to let the previous SCA for winds expire as
planned. The next approaching frontal system will turn winds
southerly tonight into tue. Expect southerly pre-frontal winds
will increase Tue and Tue night, with gusts to 25 kt expected
mainly over the northern waters. Have issued another SCA for
winds covering the northern waters for this next event. The
front will move onshore early Wed with winds becoming light
westerly behind the front. High pres will build over the waters
for Thu and fri, bringing a period of northerly winds. Then more
offshore flow is looking increasingly likely next weekend but not
especially strong at this point.

Seas will remain 5 ft or below through today and most of tue. The
frontal system late Tue into Wed should push seas back up into
the 7 to 9 ft range. Then a trailing dynamic swell train from
the system should push seas back up around 10 ft later Wed into
thu. Jbonk pyle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Wind advisory until 6 pm pst this evening for greater portland
metro area.

Wa... Wind advisory until 6 pm pst this evening for greater vancouver
area.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds from 9 am Tuesday to 7 am pst
Wednesday for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade
head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds from 4 pm Tuesday to 7 am pst
Wednesday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
cascade head or out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 8 mi27 min 53°F2 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 15 mi39 min NNW 8 G 11 57°F 53°F1026.2 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 26 mi37 min E 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 54°F2 ft1025.3 hPa (+0.0)47°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 28 mi39 min E 8.9 G 9.9 51°F1026.2 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 35 mi32 min 55°F3 ft
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 40 mi27 min 52°F2 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 42 mi51 min E 14 G 16 55°F 51°F1026 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR13 mi32 minESE 1010.00 miFair59°F30°F33%1025.9 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E8E9E10E10E8E8E8E7E7E7CalmE4E5E7E5E5E9E16
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1 day agoNE12NE10E115E6E8SE4NE7NE9E14NE14NE14NE13E11CalmE12E17
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmE5E4CalmCalmSE3S3E3E3NE3NE8NE9NE6E6NE10NE11

Tide / Current Tables for Ilwaco, Baker Bay, Wash., Columbia River, Washington
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Ilwaco
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Mon -- 04:31 AM PST     6.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:06 AM PST     3.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:51 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:21 PM PST     7.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:59 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:52 PM PST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.12.64.25.46.26.25.74.94.13.53.23.54.45.66.67.27.16.45.13.62.21.10.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Adams., Columbia River, Oregon
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Point Adams.
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:19 AM PST     6.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:27 AM PST     3.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:50 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:09 PM PST     7.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:59 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:13 PM PST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.13.75.26.36.96.75.94.943.53.54.15.36.57.47.87.56.553.31.90.90.40.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.