Tuesday, April24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ilwaco, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:18PM Tuesday April 24, 2018 5:07 AM PDT (12:07 UTC) Moonrise 1:22PMMoonset 2:56AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 227 Am Pdt Tue Apr 24 2018
In the main channel..Combined seas 2 to 4 ft through Tuesday. However, seas will temporarily build to near 5 ft during the ebbs around 115 pm Tuesday and 2 am Wednesday morning. Seas near 5 ft during the ebb around 215 pm Wednesday.
PZZ200 227 Am Pdt Tue Apr 24 2018
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Thermal low pressure over the waters will weaken later today into Wed. Winds will be especially gusty west of the river gaps in the coast range today. Low pressure moving north mid-week will bring a southerly wind reversal, possible gusty winds and fog/low clouds.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ilwaco, WA
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location: 46.3, -124.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 240946 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
237 am pdt Tue apr 24 2018

Synopsis Strong high pressure aloft will remain over the pacific
northwest through Thursday. Offshore low-level flow will persist west
of the cascades today. The surface thermal trough drifts inland
Wednesday, in conjunction with a southerly flow reversal along much
of the coast. A southwest marine surge develops Wednesday night and
Thursday. An upper level low approaching the north california coast
late in the week will spread a chance for showers and maybe even a
few thunderstorms to the region Thursday evening. The upper low
eventually slides southeast into the great basin over the weekend.

Short term Today through Thursday... An early taste of summer will
continue for the next couple of days. Water vapor imagery early this
morning showed 500 mb high pressure centered over SW oregon to ne
washington. A 500 mb low was noted near 40n 139w. The 03 hr NAM mslp
forecast valid 09z depicted a surface thermal trough extending from
near koth north to the washington coast. This has resulted in
offshore low-level flow across the forecast area. At 09z the
kttd-kdls gradient was about -6 mb. Gusts to 50 mph were noted at
crown point. Three corner rock raws, in the south washington cascades
registered gusts to 55 mph. Many areas had humidity values of 25
percent or less and offshore wind gusts 20 mph or more at 09z. The
06z NAM indicates the kttd-kdls offshore gradient peaks near -7 mb
between 15z and 18z today. Model 850 mb temps valid 00z Wed are
expected to be around 12c in the north to 16c in the south. Thus, max
temps today will be around 4-8 degrees warmer than mon, with several
high temp records sure to fall. Would not be surprised if kast and
ktmk hit 80 degrees today, which would be a record for kast.

The NAM shifts the thermal trough into the willamette valley and sw
washington interior lowlands by 06z wed. In addition, south flow
reversal along the south oregon coast is forecast to reach at least
konp or even a bit more north by 12z wed. Typically, models tend to
be too agressive moving the thermal trough inland. In any event,
subsidence inversions should be quite prevalent Tue night in the s
washington and north oregon cascades and foothills. Model forecast
850 mb temps valid 00z Thu rise to around 15c at kpdx to 19c in the
lane county cascades. By 18z Wed the low-level offshore flow is
nearly gone, mainly confined to the west end of the gorge and sw
washington cascade foothills. The thermal trough axis is forecast to
be centered from the S washington cascade foothills to the lane
county cascade foothills. This will maintain low to mid 80s Wed for
much of the interior lowlands. The coast will be much cooler wed,
except for the S washington and extreme N oregon coast where light
offshore flow is expected to continue.

The NAM shows some interesting developments Wed night. First, a
southwest marine surge strengthens, mainly impacting the coastline
and central oregon coast range and coastal valleys. Should this
occur, some of this marine air would likely spill through the central
coast range gaps and leak into the west side of the south willamette
valley. Second, surface low pressure settles over the north
willamette valley and induces stronger offshore flow through the
gorge. Onshore flow gradually deepens through the day thu, but the sw
washington interior lowlands and north willamette valley will remain
under the thermal trough. Thus, expect minimal cooling in these areas
thu. The central coast range and south willamette valleys will be
several degrees cooler due to the deeper marine layer. The gfs, ecmwf
and NAM show se-s 500 and 700 mb flow Thu afternoon. Will need to
watch for potential convection over northern california and the south
oregon cascades drifting north into the forecast area. The GFS has a
hint of this in the central oregon coast range 00z fri. The more
favorable instability looks to occur in the 00z-06z Fri time frame.

Weishaar

Long term Thursday night through Monday... Models are in
general agreement showing the upper low drifting closer to the north
california and south oregon coast Thu night. However, the qpf
details differ. The GFS shows an axis of 500-800 j kg CAPE over the
lane county cascades 00z Fri spreading north to northwest into the
willamette valley. However, by 06z there is little to no cape. The
nam shows an area of QPF developing along the the boundary of the
thermal trough and incoming marine layer at 03z Fri and expanding it
north overnight. There may be the potential for elevated convection,
especially in the cascades. By Fri morning a much deeper marine
layer is expected as the upper low continues to drift inland. The
ecwmf is much slower moving the low inland compared to the gfs.

However, Fri looks to be much cooler with scattered showers. The
unsettled pattern continues through the weekend, but Saturday looks
to have the highest pops. Weishaar

Aviation 12z tafs:VFR conditions expected for the next 24
hours. Offshore flow will ease Tuesday afternoon.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions through early Wednesday.

Fairly strong easterly wind gusts of 20-30 kt will continue
through 18z-20z Tuesday, then ease off.

Marine A surface thermal trough over the waters with east to
northeast winds. Some isolated gusts 25 kts expected downwind of
the coastal river gaps including the mouth of the columbia river
through this morning. Winds will ease during the afternoon and
evening as the thermal trough weakens. A southerly wind reversal
may push into the central waters tonight. A more substantial
southerly surge will likely occur Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday morning more widespread fog and low clouds. Small
craft advisory level winds could return towards the
weekend, as a front moves into the north oregon and south
washington waters.

A longer period westerly swell moved into the waters overnight.

All buoys in the coastal waters now showing a period of 17
seconds with significant wave height of 6 to 8 ft. Wave heights
are expected to peak below 10 ft today. The swell period and
height will then gradually lower over the next few days. Mh tw

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 8 mi67 min 51°F7 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 15 mi49 min NNW 7 G 13 56°F 52°F1019.4 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 26 mi77 min ENE 18 G 19 56°F 52°F8 ft1018.7 hPa (-0.8)41°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 28 mi55 min E 12 G 13 53°F 54°F1021.2 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 34 mi72 min 52°F8 ft
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 40 mi67 min 51°F7 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 42 mi91 min E 14 G 18 56°F 52°F1021.3 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR13 mi72 minE 910.00 miFair56°F30°F37%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E6NE5NE6NE8NE10NE13NE13NE13
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1 day agoE4CalmSE3NE3N5NW5NW7NW11NW10NW16
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2 days agoW3NW6W3CalmN4--N7N10W8W11N11NW11NW12NW12NW11N7N6N8S3SE3SE3S3S4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Ilwaco, Baker Bay, Washington
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Ilwaco
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Tue -- 03:24 AM PDT     2.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:56 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:59 AM PDT     6.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:22 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:11 PM PDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:29 PM PDT     6.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
54.13.32.82.93.64.65.66.46.76.45.54.22.91.70.70.30.51.52.94.566.86.8

Tide / Current Tables for Point Adams., Columbia River, Oregon
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Point Adams.
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:45 AM PDT     2.88 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:55 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:47 AM PDT     7.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:22 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:33 PM PDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:17 PM PDT     7.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.93.83.12.93.44.35.46.377.26.65.442.51.30.50.41.12.43.95.46.77.47.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.