Sunday, January21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ilwaco, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 5:04PM Sunday January 21, 2018 10:10 AM PST (18:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:18AMMoonset 9:59PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 853 Am Pst Sun Jan 21 2018
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect through late tonight...
In the main channel..Combined seas 20 feet, then subsiding to 16 feet Sunday evening through Monday morning. However, seas will rise to near 21 feet during the ebb around 715 pm Sunday and to around 17 feet during the ebb around 8 am Monday.
PZZ200 853 Am Pst Sun Jan 21 2018
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A strong cold front is moving onshore around 9 am this morning. A round of gales is expected Tuesday as the next front crosses the waters. Systems will continue to pass through the waters with varying impacts through the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ilwaco, WA
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location: 46.3, -124.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 211800
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
1000 am pst Sun jan 21 2018

Synopsis A strong cold front will move E across the
forecast area today, bringing high surf to the coast this morning,
rain, gusty winds, and cascades snow. A cool, showery pattern will
linger through Monday, then another strong frontal system is
expected Tuesday. Tuesday's front is expected to stall over the
area, with rain and mountain snow likely to persist into Wednesday.

Following more showers Thursday from the associated trailing upper
trough, another decent and possibly wet frontal system is expected
next weekend.

Short term Today through Tuesday... Radar and surface observations
showed the cold front moving onshore this morning. This will end the
high wind threat for the coast, so will drop the northern parts of
the warning ealry, and should be able to drop the central oregon
coast warning later this morning. Stratiform precipitation appears
to end pretty quickly behind the front, with precipitation switching
over to showers for areas west of the cascades by early afternoon.

The upper level shortwave follows late today, with strongest
dynamics moving across wa. Will continue with a low end winter
weather advisory for snow in the cascades through early this
evening.

Remainder of short term discussion unchanged... This system will be
occluding as it moves onshore, so there probably won't be much of a
jump in snow level ahead of the front. NAM bufr soundings suggest
hood river and eastern skamania counties will probably start off
with a bit lower of a snow level this morning; perhaps around 1000-
1500 feet before snow levels jump to where they are for the rest of
the cascades as the front moves through this afternoon.

Accumulations will probably be modest in the upper hood river
valley; perhaps 1 to locally 2-3 inches of snow... Which is below
advisory criteria. QPF still looks to be enough to warrant a low-end
winter weather advisory for the cascades, with 4-8 inches of snow
expected to be common.

Another round of southwesterly onshore flow will bring more showers
to the forecast area tonight and Monday, with some shadowing in
the valleys at times, but with reduced QPF totals as compared to
what is expected on today. A couple thunderstorms are possible along
the S wa far N or coast tonight as the upper cold pool swings across
the area.

Things will start to dry out Monday night as we are in between
systems, but another decent pacific front is expected to spread in
Tuesday with more rain, cascade snow, and some wind along the coast.

Models finally seem to be coming together on how to handle this front
and associated low pressure system, developing a fairly strong low
well offshore and tracking it into british columbia. This will push a
decent front onshore Tuesday, with weak waves of low pressure riding
n-ne along the front. With cool air left behind by today's system,
this system may dump a decent amount of snow in the cascades,
especially mount hood northward. Easterly flow through the gorge
ahead of this system will probably result in low snow levels in the
hood river valley and eastern skamania county, and significant
accumulations are possible depending on how long it takes for this
system to scour out cool air east of the cascades. The air east of
the cascades does not look cold enough to cause significant problems
in the columbia gorge. weagle

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows...

Tuesday night through Saturday... Active weather to continue through
the extended forecast period with little-to-no break in the
precipitation. a slow-moving upper-level trough will keep moisture
pushing into the pacific northwest, with low pressure systems
generally riding along a track from the southwest up into northern
washington or british columbia. With this pattern, expect
coast valley rain and mountain snow. Snow levels could fall down to
around 1500 ft behind the front moving through Wednesday night and
Thursday, but still wouldn't anticipate any significant snow below
2000 ft as showers will be dwindling. Saturday, there appears to be
another mild and wet system moving in, bringing snow levels back up
for the weekend. -mccoy

Aviation Brief period of MVFR conditions as the front moves
through the area in the next few hours. Otherwise,VFR conditions
are expected. Gusty south winds ahead of this front will remain
until the frontal passage when winds will switch to southwesterly
and weaken. Rain will become more showery behind the front.

Pdx and approaches...VFR for most of the period except for a ~3
hour window along and ahead of the approaching front. Winds will
also be a bit gusty in this timeframe. Bentley

Marine Storm force winds were observed earlier, but have since
weakened to high end small craft for all areas except for the
central oregon inner waters. Expect to cancel the storm warning
here within the hour. Issued a small craft advisory for winds and
seas with the winds tapering by Monday morning and seas remaining
through at least Monday evening. Seas have come in a bit higher
than guidance suggested with a height around 25 feet and a period
near 10 to 11 seconds. This is sufficient enough to continue the
high surf advisory. Bentley
active weather remains with us through the week with fronts
coming through every 48 hours or so. There is still some
uncertainty on the timing and strength of these fronts, but each
of them brings the possibility of gale force winds and seas
approaching 20 feet. The next gale currently forecast for tue-tue
night.

With the expected large waves today will issue a high surf
advisory for the south washington, north and central oregon
coasts. Fortunately the peak wave heights will be during low tide
this morning. But venturing out on the jetties and near the surf
zone will still be dangerous. Large wave will subside this
afternoon and evening. Mh

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory until 1 pm pst this afternoon for central
oregon coast-north oregon coast.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm pst this evening for
cascades in lane county-northern oregon cascades.

High wind warning until 1 pm pst this afternoon for central
oregon coast.

Wa... High surf advisory until 1 pm pst this afternoon for south
washington coast.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm pst this evening for south
washington cascades.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 4 am pst Monday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or
out 60 nm.Waters from cascade head to florence or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 pm pst Monday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head
or out 60 nm.Waters from cascade head to florence or from
10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 4 am
pst Monday.

Storm warning until 11 am pst this morning for coastal waters
from cascade head to florence or out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 15 mi40 min S 8 G 14 46°F 43°F1008.8 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 26 mi80 min WSW 18 G 23 48°F 51°F25 ft1006.8 hPa (+2.6)46°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 28 mi40 min SSW 12 G 19 47°F 47°F1007.6 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 34 mi45 min 51°F24 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 42 mi40 min WSW 22 G 25 47°F 50°F1006.9 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR13 mi15 minSW 106.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F45°F89%1009.6 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Ilwaco, Baker Bay, Washington
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Ilwaco
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Sun -- 04:01 AM PST     7.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:50 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:03 AM PST     2.80 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:17 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:28 PM PST     7.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:04 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:59 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:16 PM PST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.44.25.977.47.16.253.93.12.83.14.15.56.77.47.46.75.43.72.21.10.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Point Adams., Columbia River, Oregon
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Point Adams.
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:49 AM PST     7.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:24 AM PST     2.89 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:17 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:16 PM PST     8.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:04 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:37 PM PST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:59 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.45.26.77.77.97.36.14.73.6333.756.47.587.86.85.13.21.70.80.71.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.