Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ilwaco, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 5:06PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 11:28 PM PST (07:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:38PMMoonset 9:41AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 253 Pm Pst Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect through Thursday morning... - in the main channel... - general seas...10 to 12 feet this evening, subsiding to 8 to 10 feet Thursday morning, then subsiding to 6 to 8 feet Thursday afternoon. - first ebb...very strong ebb around 630 pm this evening. Seas building to 14 to 16 feet with breakers. - second ebb...around 715 am Thursday morning. Seas building to 12 to 14 feet with breakers possible. - third ebb...strong ebb around 715 pm Thursday evening. Seas building to 10 feet with breakers possible.
PZZ200 253 Pm Pst Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure over the ne pacific will build into or and wa, remaining through the weekend. Thermal low pressure is expected to build north along the coast from ca, resulting in increasing N winds by the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ilwaco, WA
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location: 46.3, -124.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 240447
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
846 pm pst Wed jan 23 2019
updated for evening aviation section.

Synopsis After some lingering light rain and drizzle today, high
pressure building over the northeast pacific will likely bring dry
weather and mild temperatures into at least early next week.

Short term This afternoon through Saturday... Radar this afternoon
shows some very light rain, or likely drizzle across the area. This
precip should taper off for most areas by this evening as upper
heights begin to increase with ridging moving into the area. With
rain last night and somewhat continuing today and high pressure
moving in, would generally expect fog tonight. However, models are
fairly insistent on some lingering low clouds which could prevent fog
formation. Have included patchy fog in the forecast nonetheless for
the coast and interior lowlands with all of the surface moisture
present.

Models suggest a shortwave trough dropping southeastward across the
inland northwest Thursday evening and overnight, likely bringing a
brief increase in high clouds. There is an outside chance of light
rain across our far northern zones, but not even a high enough chance
to mention in the forecast.

Upper ridging will then become more solidly entrenched across the
pacific northwest Friday and Saturday. This should result in areas of
valley morning fog and mild temperatures. Weak offshore flow on
Saturday, especially at the coast, may result in the central oregon
coast and portions of the coast range and cascade foothills warming
well into the 60s on Saturday. Inland, temperatures will likely warm
some, but not as much as at the coast, also limited by any lasting
fog or low clouds which develop overnight. Bowen

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday... Models remain in
good agreement that a large ridge of high pressure will linger over
the northeast pacific into early next week. This will allow the
multi-day stretch of dry weather to continue, with mild temperatures
and areas of late night and morning valley fog. There is still a
chance that a weak shortwave dropping south out of british columbia
late Sunday into Monday will bring cooler air to the columbia river
basin. This will allow offshore flow to strengthen on Monday and
could produce a weak downslope wind event.

Conditions may start to change towards the middle of next week as
some models ensemble members continue to show a series of weak
disturbances moving across the forecast area. Will keep slight
chance pops in the forecast for now, but there is still a lot of
uncertainty. 64 neuman

Aviation Currently, mix of conditions, with widespread 2500 to
3500 ft CIGS along the coast, and inland mainly to east of i5 to the
cascades. But, clouds more scattered in nature from salem southward.

This will be the problematic area, as temperatures are cooling
enough to support good saturation in the boundary layer. So, would
expect widespread low clouds and fog in that area, with areas of
dense fog after midnight. To the north, think will have more stratus
and not quite as much fog, though could still see locally dense fog
in spots, such as vancouver lake and in the tualatin valley. Coastal
areas will remain mostly under clouds, with CIGS gradually lowering
to 800 to 1500 feet overnight. With light winds Thu am, will see
very slow improvement, likely not clearing until after 21z.

Kpdx and approaches... LowVFR this evening, but CIGS will gradually
lower overnight, with CIGS 1000 to 1500 ft by 12z. Though not
expected to be widespread, will have some fog around kpdx ops area
later tonight, but think generally 3 to 5 mile range. Rockey.

Marine High pressure is building into the pac NW and will
likely dominate through the weekend. Late spring or early summer-
like pattern develops Fri Sat with thermal low pressure building
northward along the coast and increasing N wind across the waters
as a result.

Westerly swell peaked this morning around 15 feet and has come
down to 10-12 feet this afternoon. Expect seas to fall below 10
ft later tonight early Thu morning, so current timing of SCA for
seas to expire around 4 am still looks good. Very strong ebb will
result in very rough conditions on area bars this evening. Weagle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 4 am pst Thursday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 10 am
pst Thursday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 8 mi59 min 46°F10 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 15 mi47 min Calm G 1.9 47°F 43°F1032 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 26 mi39 min NW 9.7 G 12 48°F 52°F11 ft1032.8 hPa (+1.5)44°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 28 mi47 min W 8 G 9.9 46°F 48°F1032.6 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 35 mi59 min 52°F11 ft
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 40 mi59 min 50°F10 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 42 mi53 min W 8.9 G 11 47°F 49°F1032.2 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR13 mi34 minN 010.00 miOvercast47°F46°F97%1032.3 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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W9W8W6W5W7W8NW7W4W5W4S3S3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE3CalmSE3E3SE4S6S7S10
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2 days agoSE3SE4SE4SE3SE4CalmCalmCalmS4E5CalmNE4N3N3NW10NW10W3CalmS4CalmSE5SE5SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Ilwaco, Baker Bay, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Adams., Columbia River, Oregon
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Point Adams.
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:35 AM PST     8.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:47 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:11 AM PST     2.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:12 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:11 PM PST     9.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:08 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:40 PM PST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.45.67.48.58.67.664.22.82.12.43.65.37.18.498.77.35.22.91.1-0.1-0.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.