Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ilwaco, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 4:35PM Thursday November 22, 2018 3:48 AM PST (11:48 UTC) Moonrise 4:49PMMoonset 6:32AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 244 Am Pst Thu Nov 22 2018
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect until 6 am pst early this morning...
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect from 1 pm pst this afternoon through this evening...
In the main channel.. - general seas...6 to 8 ft. - first ebb...around 345 am Thursday. Seas building to 11 ft with breakers likely. - second ebb...very strong ebb around 4 pm Thursday. Seas building to 12 ft with breakers likely. - third ebb...around 430 am Friday. Seas building to 13 ft with breakers likely.
PZZ200 244 Am Pst Thu Nov 22 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A strong front will move across the waters today resulting in a period of gale force winds and seas building into the mid teens. Winds and seas will remain elevated through Friday. A brief period of calmer conditions are possible over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ilwaco, WA
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location: 46.3, -124.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 221115
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
312 am pst Thu nov 22 2018

Synopsis A series of disturbances will move across the region
through the rest of the week. A stronger system moves inland today ,
then another on Friday. These systems will bring more rain and
cascade snow. Weak ridging develops over the weekend for relatively
dry conditions. However, the active pattern looks to pick up again
early next week.

Short term Today through Saturday... Active and interesting
weather pattern for the next day or so. Slightly negative tilted
upper trough passing east of 130w. The main low center is in the
gulf of alaska with a secondary developing low near 130w 45n. This
area has bee quite active with thunderstorms since yesterday
afternoon and should reach the coastal waters this morning and may
see some thunderstorms along the coast for the afternoon.

Another small feature, seen best on water vapor imagery, is a
developing wave currently near 135w 42n. Models currently depict
this feature differently, from a closed low (nam, nmm-wrf) to more
of a wave (gfs, ecmwf, arw). The NAM continues to be an overdone
outlier at this point. later this morning all models close off the
low to differing intensities at it nears the coast. The model track
is concerning for potential wind issues in the lane county,
especially the south willamette valley and may make the difference
between a breezy day, to possibly have some trees or tree branches
down. for now have raised winds for the lane county, particularly
the valley portion. Also will watch marine obs and satellite trends
on the development and track of this feature.

The upper trough swings inland later today to bring cooler air into
the area. Snow levels are expected to drop to around pass levels this
afternoon with accumulating snow developing. Should see snow
accumulations around 5 to 10 inches through tonight and another 4 to
6 inches Friday with the passes getting the lower end of the range.

The pass on us26 at government camp will be near the snow
accumulation elevation so that area may have a rain snow mix or a few
inches accumulation. Travelers across the cascade passes should be
prepared for winter driving conditions.

Another strong shortwave follows Friday on the backside of the upper
trough with a warm front pushing in from the southwest. This should
lift snow levels a bit above most cascade passes on Friday. The wave
developing along the front deepens to about 1000 mb or so and remains
just south of the CWA as it moves inland and weakens Friday morning.

This system is a fast mover and will be east of the area by
Friday evening with orographics driving precipitation in the
mountains and some rain shadowing for the interior lowlands.

Upper ridging begins to move over the area Saturday, bringing a
general drying trend, but some models show a weaker ridge and are
keeping some showers around. Overall, at this point there's no
guarantee of a dry Saturday. Bowen

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday... There is less
disagreement between the GFS 00z and the ECMWF 00z Saturday night
through Sunday with both models showing weak instabilities at upper
levels which would bring low chances for precipitation Saturday
through Sunday evening.

00z GFS and ECMWF have changed since the 12z runs, but are in decent
agreement. By late Sunday into early Monday shortwave ridge pushes
into the northern rockies, opening up the area for pacific systems.

Looks like more valley rain and mountain snow on the way Monday and
Tuesday. By Wed models again in disagreement - GFS dry, ecmwf
remaining wet, but that will likely changes. Mh

Aviation We continue to see rain spread across the forecast
area through the next couple days as a series of frontal systems
pass across the area. This will keep a mix ofVFR and MVFR
conditions across the area. Expect breezy southerly winds to
develop this morning ahead of this next system, with gusts up to
30 kt along the coast. Inland, peak winds will be this afternoon,
with the strongest winds around eug, where gusts could get up to
35 kt. Winds will decrease behind the front and turn
southwesterly late this afternoon and this evening. Also, there
will be a slight chance of a thunderstorm behind the front along
the coast this afternoon, mainly north of onp, but including
ast.

Pdx and approaches... PredominantlyVFR conditions to continue
early this morning, though CIGS will occasionally lower to 2500
ft for brief periods as showers pass over the terminal. Expect
steady rain to return later this morning, with a mix ofVFR and
MVFR conditions through the rest of today. Will see gusty
southerly winds to 20-25 kt this afternoon before winds turn
southwesterly and start to ramp down. -mccoy

Marine A strong front will move across the waters this
morning. We are already seeing winds ramping up out at buoy 89
ahead of this system. It will be a fairly fast moving front,
bringing southerly winds gusting up to 45 kt. Seas, which are
right now around 9 to 10 ft will build into the middle teens with
this system. There is some potential for a few storm-force gusts
up to 50 kt south of newport for a brief period just ahead of
the front, but confidence has only decreased this morning, as our
forecast models are coming into better agreement that a secondary
low will move onshore just south of newport, hurting this chance.

Still can't rule it out, though. Feeling fairly confident in
having just the gale warning out this morning.

Winds fall below gale criteria by this afternoon, but will remain
above 20 kt through most of Friday, with seas staying up around
11-12 feet. A transient ridge of high pressure will bring quieter
weather Saturday morning, finally allowing winds to drop below
20 kt, and seas to drop below 10 ft by Saturday afternoon.

Another, much weaker system will cross our waters late Saturday
night into Sunday, bringing another round of low-end small craft
advisory winds. Seas, however, should remain below 10 ft through
the weekend. -mccoy

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 6 am pst
Friday for cascades in lane county-northern oregon
cascades.

Wa... Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 6 pm pst
Friday for south washington cascades.

Pz... Gale warning until 2 pm pst this afternoon for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 6 am
pst early this morning.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 1 pm
this afternoon to 8 pm pst this evening.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 8 mi49 min 53°F9 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 15 mi49 min SSE 9.9 G 13 49°F 50°F1004.7 hPa (+0.3)
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 26 mi59 min SSW 14 G 18 53°F 54°F9 ft1004.6 hPa (+0.5)49°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 28 mi49 min S 6 G 7 51°F 50°F1004.5 hPa (+0.5)
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 35 mi49 min 55°F8 ft
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 40 mi49 min 51°F9 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 42 mi73 min SW 8 G 9.9 50°F 51°F1003.9 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR13 mi54 minS 66.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist50°F48°F96%1005 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Ilwaco, Baker Bay, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Adams., Columbia River, Oregon
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Point Adams.
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Thu -- 12:12 AM PST     7.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:34 AM PST     2.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:26 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:45 AM PST     9.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:36 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:49 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:29 PM PST     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:41 PM PST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.47.15.94.53.22.42.33.14.66.4899.28.46.64.32.20.5-0.4-0.40.52.24.15.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.