Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Beach, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:51PM Friday February 22, 2019 10:56 AM PST (18:56 UTC) Moonrise 10:02PMMoonset 9:07AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 622 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect until 9 am pst this morning...
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect from 5 pm pst this afternoon through this evening...
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect from late tonight through Saturday morning...
In the main channel.. - general seas...7 feet through Friday night. - first ebb...strong. Around 645 am Friday. Seas near 11 feet with breakers possible. - second ebb...strong. Around 7 pm Friday. Seas near 10 feet with breakers possible. - third ebb...strong. Around 730 am Saturday. Seas near 11 feet with breakers likely.
PZZ200 622 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A quick moving and narrow frontal system will drop southward across the waters and result in a brief period of gusty winds today. A weak low pressure will then drift southward across the waters Saturday night and Sunday with few impacts.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Beach, WA
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location: 46.37, -124.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 221718
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
917 am pst Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis A cold front will spread low elevation rain and mountain
snow across the region today. The cold front is expected to stall
near eugene tonight, with another round of steady precipitation
likely developing across much of western oregon by late Saturday. Wet
snow may fall as low as 500-1000 feet as steady and locally heavy
precipitation continues Saturday night and Sunday. Snow will be heavy
in the oregon cascades. A stronger low is expected to develop
offshore along the stalled front by Sunday, likely moving onshore
somewhere along the central coast Sunday morning. If this occurs,
significant snow will be likely down to the lowest elevations north
of the front Sunday afternoon through Monday, with heavy rain to the
south of the front.

Short term 9 am update: today through Sunday... Shortly before 16z
klgx radar showed rain spreading across SW washington and the far n
oregon coast, generally north of ktmk. Temperatures have warmed above
freezing in those areas and are close to freezing in the willamette
valley. Precip is not expected to reach the interior valleys until
late morning, at the earliest. Thus, believe any lowland snow threat
is very minimal.

The frontal boundary sags southeast today, and stalls near a mt.

Jefferson to k6s2 line overnight and sat. Low-level south flow
strengthens during the day, allowing snow levels to rise to around
1500 to 2000 feet. Precipitation tapers off quickly north and west of
the frontal boundary with only a few showers expected to linger
behind the front.

The weather Saturday through Saturday night will be dominated by the
stalled front near lane county. Snow levels Saturday will range from
around 1000 ft in the SW washington interior lowlands to 2500 feet in
lane county. A series of surface low pressures develop along the
frontal boundary Saturday night and Sunday. The 12z GFS and NAM show
good isentropic upglide along the 290k surface over the south and
central portions of the forecast area Saturday night. The overall
forecast becomes more tricky 12z Sun through Monday, especially with
regard to lowland snow. The 12z NAM and GFS show a surface low near
konp 12z sun. By 18z Sunday the low could be somewhere between konp
and kast, with the NAM more north. The location of this low will have
major implications on the forecast. Moisture transport along the
front will be increasing Sunday through Sunday night, but probably
won't be sufficient quite yet to be classified as an atmospheric
river. Still, 40-50 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow into the cascades
will be enough to result in periods of heavy snow for the passes.

Winter storm watches appear to be in good shape for the oregon
cascades, though we expanded them to include the oregon cascade
foothills due to uncertainty in snow levels. We also extended them
into Monday to account for an incoming low pressure system, discussed
further below. Should the NAM verify, snow levels would rise above
the lane county cascade foothills Sunday. Models show a dramatic snow
level gradient Sunday afternoon, with 1000 ft or
lower across the far north to as much as 5000 ft over the far south,
per the latest nam.

By Sunday afternoon, the GFS and NAM show the baroclinic boundary
extending from k6s2 to the mt. Hood. The ECMWF continues to show this
boundary more to the south. Models agree there will be some degree of
offshore low-level flow through the gorge Sunday through Monday
morning. Precip could start as snow in the lowlands north of salem
Sunday night. There is the possibility precip remains snow near kpdx
through Mon morning. However, if the NAM verifies, the change-over to
rain would be much sooner. There is a fine line in the rain snow
forecast between ksle and kpdx. Any slight shift in the baroclinic
boundary deviation in the flow through the gorge would result in
large differences in location of lowland rain snow.

Confidence is higher for the columbia gorge and upper hood river
valley. Believe areas east of kczk will be all snow late Sun through
mon morning, followed by a mix of freezing rain and snow. Areas west
of kczk may see a few hours of snow, then more of a freezing
rain rain mix late Sun night through mon. Will likely be adding these
areas to the winter storm watch in the afternoon forecast. Weishaar

Long term Monday night through Thursday... The forecast for next
week remains complicated due to significant model differences so, as
mentioned in the previous discussion, will continue to use a blend
of models rather than a single deterministic model. The general trend
is for the active weather pattern to continue through much of next
week, with snow levels remaining low as waves of low pressure
approach the oregon coast. Weagle 64

Aviation A cold front moving south through northwest oregon will
bring rain, mountain snow, and lowered ceilings. Expect a period of
MVFR ceilings at most TAF sites beginning this morning along the
north coast, then spreading south through the afternoon, developing
as late as 01z-03z in the south willamette valley. Ceilings are
likely to come back up this evening toVFR category, from around 01z
on the north coast to 06z in the south valley, but there is a chance
for the MVFR CIGS to persist overnight through 12z, with the best
chances along the coast.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions Friday morning are likely to
give way to MVFR ceilings later today, most likely between 20z and
02z as a cold front moves through. Expect a transition back towards
predominantlyVFR conditions after 02z, and continuing through 12z
Saturday.

Marine No changes. Previous discussion follows. Seas just around
10 feet for the central oregon coastal waters so will extend the
advisory a few more hours this morning. A cold front will drop
southeastward across the waters today and will bring increasing
southwesterly winds ahead of it across the waters. This should bring
small craft advisory level wind gusts of 25 kt to the northern
waters in the morning and the early afternoon. The front will be
weakening as it moves southward, but should still be strong enough
to produce a period of gusty winds in the central oregon waters late
in the morning and afternoon. Seas should respond accordingly and
climb back up towards 10 ft Saturday morning.

Winds should then be rather quiet across the waters over the
weekend. This trend appears likely to continue into early next
week, but there is an outside chance a strengthening low pressure
system currently projected to move into the southern oregon
coast, could move farther north and bring a surge in southerly
winds as far north as newport late Sunday night into Monday.

Another weak low pressure may drop southward out of british
columbia during the middle of next week, which could result in a
multi-day stretch of easterly winds across the waters later next
week. Neuman

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 4 am pst
Saturday for northern oregon cascade foothills-northern
oregon cascades.

Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday
night for cascade foothills in lane county-northern oregon
cascade foothills.

Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for cascades in lane county-northern oregon
cascades.

Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 7 am pst
Saturday for cascades in lane county.

Wa... Winter weather advisory from noon today to 10 pm pst this
evening for south washington cascade foothills-south
washington cascades.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 5 pm pst this afternoon
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head
or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 3 am to 4 pm pst
Saturday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
cascade head or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds until 9 pm pst this evening for
coastal waters from cascade head or to florence or out 60
nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 9 am
pst this morning.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 5 pm
this afternoon to 9 pm pst this evening.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 5 am to
10 am pst Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 11 mi57 min 47°F6 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 19 mi39 min SE 5.1 G 6 38°F 41°F1015.8 hPa
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 24 mi45 min S 21 G 24 42°F 44°F1014.2 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 28 mi67 min SW 19 G 25 47°F 47°F7 ft1015.8 hPa (-1.4)41°F
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 35 mi57 min 47°F7 ft
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 36 mi57 min 48°F8 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 37 mi81 min SW 18 G 24 44°F 47°F1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR17 mi62 minS 13 G 1810.00 miLight Rain43°F39°F86%1016 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW6W5N11NW7NW10NW11N7N5NE6NE9NE5NE8N10NE10NE8SE3E4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW8W9SW8W10W9W9W9W7W6W8NW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Tarlatt Slough, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Tarlatt Slough
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Fri -- 03:50 AM PST     10.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:07 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:18 AM PST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:55 PM PST     10.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:51 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:02 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:36 PM PST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.368.510.210.6108.46.44.22.21.11.53.668.31010.5108.46.341.90.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Canby, Jetty A, Columbia River, Washington
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Fort Canby
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:44 AM PST     8.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:27 AM PST     0.97 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:07 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:48 PM PST     8.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:52 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:43 PM PST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:01 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.57.58.78.986.142.21.11.12.13.85.67.38.48.77.85.93.61.60.2-0.10.72.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.