Saturday, December15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Beach, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 4:28PM Saturday December 15, 2018 3:26 PM PST (23:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:00PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 306 Pm Pst Sat Dec 15 2018
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect through Sunday afternoon...
In the main channel.. - general seas...seas 12 to 13 ft this afternoon and evening building to 19 feet after midnight and 21 feet by Monday morning. Seas building again to 23 feet Sunday afternoon and evening. - first ebb...around 1045 pm today. Seas near 19 ft with breakers. - second ebb...around 1145 am Sunday. Seas around 25 ft with breakers covering the bar. - third ebb...around 1145 pm Sunday. Seas around 29 ft with breakers covering the bar.
PZZ200 306 Pm Pst Sat Dec 15 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A broad area of low pres will remain over the gulf of alaska. A series of strong fronts will move across the waters through mid week. These fronts along with the low in the gulf of alaska will generate large seas which will spread into the waters. The first front will pass across the waters tonight and early Sunday morning. Winds and seas will rise with this front and a large long period swell will enter the waters late Sunday afternoon. Seas will not come down much Sunday night and Monday before another strong system with likely gales and potential storm force winds reach the coastal waters Monday afternoon and evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Beach, WA
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location: 46.37, -124.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 151819
afdpqr
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service portland or
1017 am pst Sat dec 15 2018
updated aviation and marine sections

Synopsis Active weather pattern continues for the pacific
northwest. After a break in the rain and blustery weather today, the
next in a series of pacific frontal systems will spread rain across
the forecast area Sunday. There is a chance that this system may
bring some coastal wind, but at this point it appears the strongest
winds will be south of the forecast area. Any break in the weather
after this system will be brief, as the strongest front of the series
thus far is expected to spread heavy rain and gusty winds to sw
washington and NW oregon Monday night and Tuesday. As a result, some
river flooding may occur by the middle of next week depending on how
much rain falls. Heavy surf will affect the coast at times through
Wednesday.

Short term Today through Monday... The strong cold front that
brought a surge of wind to the pacific northwest Friday has come and
gone, now racing across the northern rockies. This system brought
gusts 35-45 mph to some of our inland valleys, with gusts at pdx and
ttd airports peaking at 46 mph. This resulted in some isolated power
outages across the forecast area, but not nearly as many as were
reported further north, in the seattle metro area. As expected, the
strongest winds were along the coast beaches and headlands, with cape
meares being the big winner in our forecast area at 77 mph. Winds
died down fairly quickly Friday evening after the front moved
through.

There will be a relative lull in the action today as high pressure
moves across the region. However, high clouds are already thickening
overhead, associated with the next frontal system and its warm
advection aloft. Temps today will be closer to normal today, but
probably still a tad above. Rain may develop as early as tonight as
this system approaches, but more widespread rain is likely Sunday.

Snow levels will rise well above the cascade passes tonight by the
time precipitation increases. Will need to keep a close eye on
temperatures tonight in the hood river valley, as they may be close
to freezing as rain begins to develop. At this point, it appears
increasing cloud cover will help keep temps there above freezing.

Looking at current satellite imagery over the pacific, there is a
beast of a low pressure system encompassing much of the north-
central pacific and gulf of alaska. This system has matured, and
should start to weaken from its current surface pressure of 960 mb.

However, this system developed a substantial amount of swell as it
developed; swell that is aimed toward the pac nw. This may
necessitate high surf highlights when the large and long period swell
reaches the coast Sunday. Fortunately, we are at a time of the month
where the tides are modest, which may mitigate coastal flood issues.

There will likely be more periods of high surf as the active weather
continues out in the pacific. Anyone planning on observing the waves
should do so from a safe distance, as these waves will be very
energetic and will easily be able to roll logs and sweep people who
get too close out to sea.

The structure of Sunday's frontal system is somewhat convoluted,
making for challenging QPF and wind forecasting. Water vapor imagery
suggests the front has latched on to some deeper moisture over the
past hour, with tpw values up over 1 inch. Model guidance shows good
agreement that the strongest winds and heaviest rain with this system
will focus to our south, across SW oregon and NW california.

After the front moves through, there will be some showers Sunday
night as the associated upper trough moves east across the area.

Cooler air behind the front may briefly lower snow levels to cascade
pass levels, but accumulations should be minimal. A break in the
precipitation is likely Monday morning, but a 180 kt zonal pacific
jet stream aimed toward oregon will make any break brief. Models have
sped up the timing of precip associated with the next front, with
rain possibly reaching the coast by sunset Monday. This front appears
to be the strongest and wettest of the series thus far, with latest
naefs ensembles well into the atmospheric river category across
western wa or Mon night into tue. Depending on how this front comes
in, there could be a good bit of s-sw wind ahead of it as well.

Weagle

Long term Monday night through Friday... As mentioned above, most
models are speeding up the arrival of a strong pacific frontal
system, with rain likely to arrive by Monday night. This system will
have ample access to subtropical moisture, with integrated vapor
transport (ivt) reaching 3 standard deviations above normal for a
time of year where high ivt is relative common. The 00z GFS and nam
aim this atmospheric river right at our forecast area Mon night and
tue, while the 00z ECMWF aims the deepest moisture transport a little
further south. With an enormous amount of jet energy across the
pacific, details on this system are evolving quickly and much can
change between now and then. However, based on what we're seeing now,
a 2-inch rain event is possible for the inland valleys, with much
higher values, upwards of 5 inches, possible for the high terrain.

This raises the specter of river flooding if current guidance
verifies. To the south of the front, mslp gradients look quite
impressive and may support strong winds both at the coast and inland.

Due to the subtropical nature of this system, snow levels will likely
be well above the cascade passes.

00z model suite is trending drier Wednesday after a warm front lifts
north across the pac NW and into bc. This may or may not happen fast
enough to push the next system north of us Thursday, but for the time
being, models bring another decent front through the forecast area
(but weaker than the Mon night Tue front). The trend in model
guidance may be suggesting some retrogression in the longwave pattern
which might result in upper level ridging and less active weather by
next weekend. Weagle

Aviation Vfr conditions today and this evenki across the area
with overcast mid and high level clouds. Front approaching
tonight will bring gradually lowering clouds with light rain
spreading to kast and konp after about 00z and inland to kpdx
around 03z. Increasing south to southeast wind... Especially
along the coast this evening through morning.

Pdx and approaches...VFR today, with overcast high mid level
clouds. Light winds will become east to southeast 10 to 13 kt
aft 23z, and pick up a bit overnight and Sunday morning. Light
rain will reach the terminal aft 03z and continue through
tomorrow. Schneider

Marine Active marine weather for the next week... Especially
with larger seas and surf conditions.

Next front now about 300 miles offshore, and will push across
the coastal waters late tonight into Sun am, then onshore sun
afternoon. Will see southerly winds increase today, with gusts 30
to 40 kt at times over the outer waters tonight. Gale warning
for such winds today through sun. Will see gusts rising up to 35
to 40 kt over the inner waters after midnight through sun
morning decreasing some Sunday afternoon.

West swell of 12 to 15 ft today, with larger swell staying over
the outer waters. Seas building as winds increase and
getting up to 18 to 20 feet over the inter waters after midnight
and to around 22 to 25 feet over the outer waters. Front weakens
and wind sea diminishes a bit Sunday morning.

Bigger long period seas arriving quickly Sunday afternoon after
3pm rising up to 28 feet over the outer waters and 22 to 24 feet
over the inner waters. There is a lot of energy in these seas
and we will see dangerous high surf along all of the south
washington and oregon coast.

A brief break in the stronger winds late Sun night into mon. But,
will see another front dropping southeast from the gulf of alaska
into the pac NW later Mon and Tue and again Wednesday. Will have
winds going up and down, but additional rounds of gale force to
storm force winds appear likely, along 20 to 30 ft seas at times.

Schneider

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until noon pst today for waters from cape
shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Gale warning until 4 pm pst Sunday for waters from cape
shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until midnight pst tonight for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 10 nm.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 4 pm pst Sunday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
10 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 6 pm
pst Sunday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 11 mi57 min 51°F8 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 19 mi147 min NW 5.1 G 8.9 47°F 45°F1010.8 hPa (-2.7)
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 24 mi45 min ESE 13 G 15 48°F 47°F1010.2 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 28 mi37 min SE 21 G 25 53°F 51°F10 ft1007.7 hPa (-2.3)37°F
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 35 mi57 min 50°F8 ft
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 36 mi57 min 52°F10 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 37 mi51 min ESE 12 G 15 46°F 47°F1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR17 mi32 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F35°F63%1009.9 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Tarlatt Slough, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Tarlatt Slough
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:15 AM PST     2.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:49 AM PST     First Quarter
Sat -- 07:28 AM PST     8.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:05 PM PST     3.96 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:13 PM PST     7.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.12.43.75.36.67.88.68.686.95.95.14.344.45.56.57.27.67.56.75.64.4

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Canby, Jetty A, Columbia River, Washington
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Fort Canby
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:49 AM PST     First Quarter
Sat -- 06:35 AM PST     7.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:17 PM PST     4.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:30 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:14 PM PST     6.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.73.74.966.97.47.56.96.15.24.64.24.34.75.25.86.26.46.35.64.53.52.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.