Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Munising, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 8:10PM Friday March 24, 2017 9:44 PM EDT (01:44 UTC) Moonrise 4:57AMMoonset 3:17PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ249 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm-saxon Harbor Wi To Black River Mi- Black River To Ontonagon Mi- Ontonagon To Upper Entrance Of Portage Canal Mi- Upper Entrance Of Portage Canal To Eagle River Mi- Eagle River To Manitou Island Mi- Manitou Island To Point Isabelle Mi- Point Isabelle To Lower Entrance Of Portage Canal Mi- Lower Entrance Of Portage Canal To Huron Islands Mi Including Keweenaw And Huron Bays-huron Islands To Marquette Mi- Marquette To Munising Mi-munising To Grand Marais Mi- Grand Marais To Whitefish Point Mi- Lake Superior From Saxon Harbor Wi To Upper Entrance To Portage Canal Mi 5nm Off Shore To The Us/canadian Border Including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior From Upper Entrance To Portage Canal To Manitou Island Mi 5nm Off Shore To The Us/canadian Border- Lake Superior West Of Line From Manitou Island To Marquette Mi Beyond 5nm From Shore- Lake Superior East Of A Line From Manitou Island To Marquette Mi And West Of A Line From Grand Marais Mi To The Us/canadian Border Beyond 5nm From Shore- Lake Superior From Grand Marais Mi To Whitefish Point Mi 5nm Off Shore To The Us/canadian Border- 304 Pm Est Tue Nov 15 2016 /204 Pm Cst Tue Nov 15 2016/
.strong fall storm expected this weekend... A deepening low pressure system will move from the central plains on Thursday to the upper great lakes late Friday and to east of lake superior on Saturday. Northeast winds of 30 to 40 knots will develop on Friday...strongest over western lake superior. Winds will shift to the northwest Friday night into Saturday with gales of 40 to 45 knots expected across most of lake superior and storm force winds over 50 knots possible. Heavy snow showers and squalls Friday night into Saturday will sharply reduce visibility at times. Boating interests on lake superior should stay tuned for additional statements and the latest forecasts as the week progresses.
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ249 Expires:201611162200;;423832 FZUS73 KMQT 152004 MWSMQT MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 304 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016 LSZ162-240>251-263>267-162200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Munising, MI
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location: 46.38, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 241948
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
348 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017

Short term (this evening through Saturday)
issued at 342 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
water vapor imagery shows a stout moisture plume continuing to
stream northward out of the gulf of mexico all the way up into
wisconsin and has been feeding into the mid-level baroclinic zone
that has slowly begun push south across south central and eastern
upper michigan this afternoon. Surface temperatures were slow to
respond, but where precipitation continues to call this evening
temperatures have warmed above freezing. A few locations north of
the precipitation have seen persistent fog, especially where
northerly winds have resulted in onshore and upslope flow.

Through the rest of the evening and overnight hours, winds will
increase a bit compared to the calm winds experienced through the
day today. While the winds will not be impressive, trees that are
still coated in ice may become problematic and/or be susceptible to
broken limbs. Rain across the south central will continue to push
south of the area as high pressure near the hudson bay continues to
slowly drop across southeast ontario. This will result in surface
winds becoming east-northeasterly over night. These upslope winds
across north central portions of the area extending west into the
keweenaw may result in the development of freezing drizzle and light
snow. Forecast soundings show cloud top temperatures leaning more
towards ice crystals, so it may be more light snow than freezing
drizzle, but precipitation is expected to remain quite light. These
areas may also see fog due to the upslope/onshore flow. As the
surface high pressure drops closer to the area, low-level dry air
will begin to filter south across the area and should allow for any
precipitation and fog to diminish by daybreak. During the day on
Saturday, expect a mostly dry day across the u.P. As the bulk of the
precipitation remains south of the area through much of the day.

Through the afternoon, cloud cover will gradually try to scatter out
especially across the north, but do not expect this trend to
continue as more precipitation is on the way for Saturday evening.

Long term (Saturday night through Friday)
issued at 347 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
split flow pattern will dominate the conus/southern canada thru the
upcoming week with pcpn for our area largely tied to southern stream
energy that drops into the SW CONUS and then tracks ene into the
great lakes. One system emerging over the southern plains today will
weaken as it is kicked NE to the great lakes later this weekend by
the next shortwave trough moving through the western conus. This
system will bring light rain and some fzra at times Sat night thru
mon. After a drier midweek period, another southern stream shortwave
may bring more pcpn late next week. Overall, it appears pcpn amounts
will generally be on the lighter side. As for temps, split flow
across N america will keep arctic air bottled up way to the n,
resulting in overall above normal temps across the upper lakes for
the next week.

Sat night thru Mon night, mid-level low over mo Sat evening is fcst
to open up/weaken as it lifts NE across lower mi to southern ontario
and the lower lakes late Sun into Sun night. This occurs in response
to upstream shortwave trough moving across the plains Sun and
reaching the mississippi valley late mon. As a result, model
soundings show deepening moisture expanding across the area with all
model guidance indicating periodic pcpn. The main fcst challenge is
that the low-level flow will remain easterly thru Sun before backing
northerly into mon. This will act to maintain some colder near sfc
blo an elevated warm layer with h85 temps well above 0c, allowing
for the potential of more -fzra, mainly at night. Fortunately,
forcing is weak, so pcpn amounts should be light overall, and there
should not be any significant icing.

With the shortwave trough over the mississippi valley late mon
shifting E of the area by Tue morning, expect dry weather to return
for tue/wed as hudson bay sfc high pres builds into the upper great
lakes.

Wed night/thu, there is plenty of model uncertainty on the
strength/track of a northern stream shortwave running roughly along
the u.S./canadian border. 00z ECMWF has significantly backed off on
the strength of this wave, and now does not generate any pcpn. 12z
cmc has now trended much weaker with the wave than its 00z run and
looks drier per 00z ecmwf. Conversely the 12z GFS run has trended
deeper than its 00z run and would argue for keeping a chc of pcpn.

Given uncertainty, fcst will continue to include a chc of pcpn wed
night into thu.

Late week, at least one batch of southern stream energy may make a
run toward the great lakes, but there is little model agreement or
consistency at this point. 00z/12z ECMWF shows a better potential
for pcpn Thu night into Fri while the 00z/12z GFS and cmc keep the
southern stream wave well south of the area with ridging and dry
conditions over the upper lakes.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 138 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
conditions this afternoon vary from MVFR to lifr, with kiwd
continuing to see the lowest ceilings and visibilities as onshore
flow continues out of the northwest. Further north, winds have veer
around more northerly and has allowed the better upslope flow to
weaken. Across ksaw, the combination of moist onshore and upslope
flow out of the north has allowed the ifr ceilings and visibilities
to remain in place. Tonight, expect the lower ceilings to linger at
ksaw and kcmx with winds veering around to the east-northeast
providing good onshore/upslope flow. Soundings suggest enough low-
level lift and saturation will take place at kcmx for some light
snow, and possibly some light freezing drizzle, to develop later
tonight. Soundings show that cloud top temperatures may be just cold
enough to support snow rather than freezing drizzle, so opted to
just mention light snow for now. We may see a brief increase in
visibilities at ksaw later this afternoon, but expect the lower
visibilities to return with upslope flow developing overnight. As
winds veer to the east-northeast, kiwd will see improving conditions
as downsloping flow should allow ceilings to rise gradually to the
MVFR category.

Marine (for the 4 pm lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 342 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
tonight in Saturday, winds will become northeasterly and eventually
veer around to the east at speeds up to 20 to 30 knots. Saturday,
easterly winds will decrease to around 15 to 25 knots. The highest
winds are expected to be across the far western portion of the lake
as winds will funnel parallel to the shoreline into northern
wisconsin and minnesota. Saturday night winds will decrease across
the west to around 15 to 20 knots and increase to around 20 to 25
knots across the east. Winds will become light and back to the north
Sunday into Monday. Monday through the middle of the week, northerly
winds will persist over the lake, with speeds at times up to 15 to
20 knots.

Mqt watches/warnings/advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Ritzman
long term... Voss
aviation... Ritzman
marine... Ritzman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 4 mi49 min NNE 2.9 34°F 1023.2 hPa32°F
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 37 mi45 min NNW 5.1 G 7 33°F 1021.9 hPa (+2.1)31°F
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 44 mi65 min N 6 G 6 34°F 1023 hPa
GRIM4 44 mi35 min N 8 G 9.9 34°F 1023 hPa34°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 53 mi65 min N 2.9 G 5.1 35°F

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI4 mi49 minNNE 3 mi34°F32°F92%1023.2 hPa

Wind History from P53 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S7S8
G16
S6S5S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE5NW5NW7NW8N8N8N9N7N11NE7N3
1 day agoS6S8S9S9S8S7S8S7S3S5S6S6S8S14
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2 days agoN21N20
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N17N16N14N12N9N10N10N7N7NE7NE7NE6NE4NE7NE9NE10NE10NE10NE10CalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.