Thursday, April19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Munising, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 8:45PM Thursday April 19, 2018 5:37 AM EDT (09:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:33AMMoonset 11:57PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ249 957 Pm Edt Thu Sep 28 2017
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters... The areas affected include... Huron islands to marquette mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Marquette to munising mi... At 956 pm edt...doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm... Capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near presque isle...moving southeast at 20 knots. Locations impacted include... Laughing whitefish point...shot point...shelter bay...au train island...presque isle and grand island. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4649 8703 4644 8725 4659 8749 4669 8738 4665 8731 4673 8732 4679 8725 4667 8666 4641 8669 4640 8672 4643 8677 4640 8690
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ249 Expires:201709290245;;082710 FZUS73 KMQT 290157 MWSMQT MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 957 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2017 LSZ248-249-266-290245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Munising, MI
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location: 46.38, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 190842
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
442 am edt Thu apr 19 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 441 am edt Thu apr 19 2018
very quiet in the short term. Mostly clear skies expected through
the short term, with highs today ranging from the upper 30s near
eastern lake superior to the upper 40s interior w. Very dry air and
light winds associated with the sfc ridge over the area will allow
min temps to be in the mid teens over the interior tonight.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 433 am edt Thu apr 19 2018
a quiet period of weather is still expected thru early next week
with temperatures returning to more typical mid late apr values.

Obviously, the quiet weather will be ideal as we don't need to add
rain to the snowpack which will be melting down under warmer
conditions and high spring Sun angle. Building positive height
anomaly across S central canada and hudson bay will force the next
shortwave trof now moving onshore in ca way to the S across the
lower mississippi valley SE states late weekend early next week. A
couple of shortwaves will then track eastward in the vcnty of the
u.S. Canada border during the first half of next week. The first may
not generate any shra for upper mi as it passes well to the n. More
vigorous second wave should pose a decent potential of rain then
rain snow Tue into wed. As for temps, warming trend will occur thru
the weekend as development of positive height anomalies across s
central canada ensures no late season cold air to the n. Temps will
rise to around normal or slightly above normal as snowcover should
not really inhibit warming given the high Sun angle working on the
forested upper mi landscape on mostly sunny days. A cool down is
expected for the middle of next week as trof passes.

As was the case yesterday, there are no major weather concerns for
this fcst cycle. Mean mid upper level ridging over S central canada
to hudson bay will support sfc high pres over the great lakes region
fri thru sun, resulting in dry weather. The GFS still spits out some
pcpn Fri aftn and Sat aftn in the lake breeze convergence zone
central, a result of too much low-level moisture from melting snow.

This has been a bias seen in the model in recent weeks. Outside of
some high clouds at times, generally sunny days and clear nights are
expected thru sun, a fairly typical spring time scenario for upper
mi. Winds will be on the light side thru the weekend, especially
fri sat, with high pres over the great lakes region and meso highs
setting up each aftn over the waters, particularly Fri sat, leading
to the usual chill near the lakes each aftn (temps in the 30s). Away
from lake cooling, high temps will be in the 50s Fri thru sun,
though some locations will likely top 60f Sat sun. Best chc of
seeing more widespread MAX temps at or above 60f will be on mon
ahead of approaching cold front. Good radiational cooling nights
will be coming up with tonight being the best. Fri night Sat night
will still feature good nighttime cooling though models suggest
thicker high clouds will pass acros the area Fri night. Favored the
bias corrected global cmc for mins as it is typically a superior
performer on radiational cooling nights. Dry air mass over the area
and generally little cloud cover will support large diurnal temp
swings, especially while snow cover is still consistent across the
landscape to allow sharp nighttime temp falls. Interior mins should
tumble back to the low mid 20s Fri night Sat night. Incorporated
lower dwpt guidance into the fcst to adjust dwpts down as some of
the raw model fcsts, GFS in particular, included in the blended
guidance are raising sfc dwpts too much with the melting snow.

Cold front associated with first shortwave will slowly move across
the fcst area Mon night thru Tue as it slows down in response to
second shortwave approaching. At this point, it appears the front
will initially arrive without any pcpn. There is plenty of
uncertainty with the second, more vigorous shortwave arriving
midweek. However, at least for the 00z runs, the GFS cmc ECMWF are
surprisingly similar depicting a mid-level low closing off as the
wave moves across the western great lakes, a scenario that could
lead to rain transitioning to some accumulating snowfall for at
least parts of the area. Despite the 00z run agreement, there are
not a whole lot of ensembles supporting that idea at the moment.

Will be something to monitor. Significant rainfall should not be a
concern with this system as flow behind southern stream wave moving
from the lower mississippi valley to the SE states will prevent gulf
moisture return to this northern system.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 130 am edt Thu apr 19 2018
primary concern for the overnight period will be to closely monitor
iwd for possible fog formation, although if it does come to
fruition, should teeter in the upper-end of the MVFR category.

Otherwise,VFR looks to prevail throughout the rest of the taf
period. Additional considerations for gusty nne becoming nnw winds
to continue during the overnight period well into the daylight hours
on Thursday for saw before surface ridging moving in from the west
helps to settle the winds down area-wide.

Marine (for the 4 am lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 441 am edt Thu apr 19 2018
gusts of 20-25 kts today will diminish this evening and tonight,
then winds will remain below 20 kts through the rest of the
forecast period.

Hydrology
Issued at 433 am edt Thu apr 19 2018
snowpack will be melting thru at least early next week under warming
which will push temps to around normal or even slightly above
normal. Mostly sunny days thru the weekend will strongly aid the
melting. With nighttime temps falling blo freezing and dewpoints
likely remaining low, only a gradual increase in melting runoff
should occur. Early next week, min temps may not fall blo freezing
for a night or two, increasing runoff potential, though dewpoints
will likely remain low, keeping melting of snow slower than would
otherwise occur. The addition of notable rainfall is the biggest
concern to increase flooding potential. Fortunately, there will be
no pcpn thru the weekend, and pcpn which occurs Tue Wed should be on
the light side as a cold front passes. Temporary cool down following
the frontal passage will then slow down the ongoing snow melt.

Overall, these conditions don't suggest any significant concerns
with the snow melt over the next 7 days. While melting will likely
be relatively controlled given the forecast, rivers will begin to
respond this weekend and minor flooding is quite possible at some
point down the road on the usual rivers that experience spring
flooding.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Titus
long term... Rolfson
aviation... Lg
marine... Titus
hydrology... Rolfson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 4 mi42 min N 13 30°F 1021.8 hPa24°F
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 37 mi56 min NNW 7 G 11 32°F 1021.4 hPa22°F
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 44 mi58 min N 13 G 17 32°F 1021 hPa
GRIM4 44 mi38 min N 12 G 15 33°F 1022.5 hPa (+1.6)28°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 53 mi58 min N 6 G 9.9 30°F 1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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NE5
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N12
G22
N8
G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI4 mi42 minN 13 mi30°F24°F79%1021.8 hPa

Wind History from P53 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN13N12N13NE14NE14NE15N16N19N24N20N20NE16N13NW12NW11NW8NW6N5NE5N5N7N11N14N13
1 day agoN17N14N18
G24
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2 days agoNE19NE16NE18NE18N15N17N16N17N16
G23
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G27
N15N16
G24
N17N15
G21
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G25
N13
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N12N10N11N12N12N15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.