Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 9:00 PM   Moonset 5:47 AM

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LSZ249 115 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Marquette to munising mi - . Munising to grand marais mi - .
at 114 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. The leading edge of these Thunderstorms were located over shelter bay, moving east at 20 knots.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
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lat - .lon 4648 8702 4647 8712 4654 8714 4669 8651 4653 8642 4640 8663 4640 8671 4643 8677 4640 8690

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 241121 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 721 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and dry air, clear skies, and light winds today.
- More unsettled weather expected for the coming weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
Issued at 424 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

GOES-16 Channel 10 Water Vapor imagery shows significantly drier air moving over the UP this morning. RAP Analysis shows 500mb height rises as ridging builds over the UP following the passage of the trough responsible for yesterday's active weather. Under northwesterly flow aloft, cooler temperatures prevail today with NBM mean highs only in the mid 30s along Lake Superior and upper 40s further into the interior west. With clear skies, efficient mixing of dry air aloft is expected, with the 10th percentile of all available model guidance over the UP suggesting dew points nearing the single digits, resulting in RH values in the 20s and upper teens in the interior of the UP. While normally this would be a concern for fire weather, the ridging will provide light and variable winds of 5-10 mph. Given those winds and the cooler temperatures and recent precipitation, fire weather concerns are lower than previous dry weather days. CAMs do indicate some lake breeze activity today, particularly from Lake Michigan and along the Keweenaw.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a trough on the west coast, a ridge in the plains and a trough on the east coast 00z Thu. Troughing moves into the central Rockies 00z Fri with a ridge over the upper Great Lakes. The trough then becomes negatively tilted in the central plains 12z Fri and then moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat.
Deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moves into the area 18z Fri and remains into 12z Sat. Did slow down pops into the area Friday as they looked way too fast with a system being negatively tilted and antecedent airmass out ahead of it is awfully dry. Went dry for Fri morning and would not be surprised if Fri for the whole area does not turn out to be dry.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the southern Rockies and a negatively tilted shortwave over the upper Mississippi River Valley and a ridge on the east coast 12z Sat. The trough moves into the central plains 12z Sun and then becomes negatively tilted as it moves northeast into the upper Great Lakes 12z Mon. This negatively tilted trough slows down and remains over the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. Ridging then moves into the area 12z Wed. Temperatures are above normal on Saturday and then fall to near normal Sunday into Tuesday with an active and wet weather pattern setting up. Temperatures go back above normal on Wed.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 721 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Barring the unlikely persistence of a borderline SCT/BKN MVFR cloud deck above SAW, a high pressure over northern Ontario will keep clear VFR conditions through the entire TAF and too dry of conditions for any fog. Northerly and northeasterly winds will turn easterly and eventually southerly tonight but will remain mainly light and under 8 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Winds continue to diminish below 20 knots today as high pressure builds in. This high then lingers over the Great Lakes through Thursday which will keep winds suppressed until Friday when winds will increase from the southeast/east to 20 to 30 knots and may push gale force gusts up to 40 knots Friday night along the U.S. Canadian waters region of eastern Lake Superior. Low pressure then forecast to track northeast across the region this weekend...which in turn will bring winds back around from the north in the Sunday time frame. Winds stay up to around 30 knots Saturday into Monday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for LSZ240>245-251.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ248>250.

Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ221- 248-250.

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