Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Munising, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:56PM Thursday August 17, 2017 7:36 AM EDT (11:36 UTC) Moonrise 1:16AMMoonset 4:40PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ249 749 Pm Edt Wed Aug 9 2017
.strong Thunderstorms over the waters... The areas affected include... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Marquette to munising mi... Munising to grand marais mi... At 748 pm edt...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms... Capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 12 nm north of granite island to 18 nm north of grand island to near miners castle...moving east at 25 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots...small hail... Locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4662 8619 4653 8642 4642 8657 4639 8666 4668 8704 4671 8731 4699 8738 4715 8644 4664 8598
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ249 Expires:201708100045;;136191 FZUS73 KMQT 092349 MWSMQT MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 749 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2017 LSZ249-250-266-100045-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Munising, MI
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location: 46.38, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 170905
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
505 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 501 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
wv imagery and rap analysis indicated a vigorous mid upper level low
over SRN mn. At the surface, a 998mb low was located near msp with a
warm front extending into SE wi. A shortwave ahead of the low
supported a band of showers from WRN lake superior through west and
srn portions of the cwa.

Today, radar trends and short range high res models suggest that the
initial rain band will move into the ern CWA and NRN keweenaw by 12z
with only isold sct lighter showers over the rest of the area for
most of the morning. However, expect rain coverage to increase
during the afternoon with daytime heating and the approach of the
mid level low that should track into WRN upper michigan. Forecast
mlcape to around 1k j kg will also be enough to support
thunderstorms. The main threat will be for heavy rainfall,
especially central, of several inches with any stronger slow
moving shra tsra clusters as pwat values climb into the 1.50-2.00
inch range. Even though 0-6km shear will be weak, with the strong
vorticity center moving into the area there may be a slight
potential for a brief weak funnel tornado similar to what occurred
over SRN mn Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Tonight, as the mid level low lifts to the northeast, the heavier
shra tsra will diminish by late evening. Additional lighter wrap-
around rain drizzlle will develop over the northwest half especially
where upslope nnw flow lift is strongest.

The gusty southeast winds ahead of the low will result in high waves
and high swim risk for the beaches of schoolcraft county today where
a beach hazards statement is in effect.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 413 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
a fairly progressive pattern will prevail over the next 7 days. Very
well-defined shortwave currently lifting toward the upper great
lakes will reach quebec new england on sun. Meanwhile, the next trof
which arrives over western canada Fri will reach central canada
early next week and will then be in the hudson bay to great lakes
region on tue. Longer range guidance is in quite good agreement that
the pattern should then slow down become much more amplified across
canada again as sharp ridging rebuilds over central canada by late
next week. This will result in the trof over the hudson bay to great
lakes region on Tue amplifying over eastern N america during the
last half of the week. These large scale changes will lead to cool
conditions over the next couple of days as approaching trof crosses
the area. Temps will then swing above normal over the weekend ahead
of approaching cold front tied to the trof reaching central canada.

As that trof then GOES on to amplify over eastern N america, temps
will fall back, and there will probably be at least a couple of days
of blo normal temps during the last half of next week. As for pcpn,
wet period today into Fri associated with passing trof will give way
to a dry weekend for most of the fcst area. The next potential of a
more widespread pcpn event should arrive Mon into early Tue in
association with the cold front tied to the trof progressing from
central canada to the great lakes region and hudson bay. Drier
weather will return late Tue thru thu, but the amplifying trof over
eastern N america raises some concern for diurnally driven isold sct
convection as summertime NW flow over the area is notorious for that
kind of activity.

Beginning fri, sfc low pres will be exiting to the E of lake
superior upper mi during the morning. Wrap around upslope enhanced
shra affecting much of the area early in the morning, except the s
central, will end from W to E during the day into the evening. It
will be a breezy day behind the rather vigorous low pres system for
aug. NW winds will likely be gusting frequently into the 15-25mph
range from the keweenaw to central and eastern upper mi. Gusts up to
30 mph will be possible along the lakeshore over N central and ne
upper mi. These blustery winds will lead to large waves and a high
swim risk for the lake superior beaches of marquette and alger
counties on fri. However, it won't be a day to go to the beach due
to clouds shra and temps struggling to get out of the lower 60s over
the N central and NE fcst area where shra cloud cover will be most
persistent. Not out of the question that a few locations will fail
to get above 60f if shra clouds persist thru the daylight hrs. Over
the W and SW fcst area, temps may reach 70f, aided by some breaks in
the cloud cover during the aftn. Trailing shortwave dropping into
the departing trof late Fri night will probably prevent skies from
completely clearing out. Could even be a few sprinkles over the w
late Fri night.

Although potential is very low, passage of the trailing shortwave on
sat may lead to isold -shra or a few sprinkles. Otherwise, expect a
partly cloudy, warmer day with temps rebounding back to normal or
even slightly above normal Sat aftn.

Trof moving across western canada Fri will evolve into a broad mid-
level low over central canada on sun. Shortwave swinging around the
s and SE side of the low will push associated cold front toward the
upper lakes late in the day, and it may spark a few shra tsra over
the w. Ahead of the front, expect a warm day Sun with highs in the
80s, except E along lake michigan.

As the mid level low W of hudson bay drifts e, a shortwave will
amplify troffing into the great lakes by tue. This additional energy
should support an increase in shra tsra coverage along frontal
boundary and across upper mi for mon, perhaps lingering into tue.

Dry weather should mostly follow for Wed thu. However, NW flow in
addition to the potential of shortwaves to drop SE across area could
generate mainly diurnally driven isold sct convection.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday morning) issued
at 122 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
vfr conditions are expected at all sites into early morning. A
shield of shra will spread northeastward across all sites overnight
through Thursday, resulting in deteriorating conditions at all
sites. Conditions will drop to lifr vlifr at all sites on Thu and
this will last into Thu evening.

Marine (for the 4 am lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 501 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
easterly winds will increase today across central and eastern lake
superior as low pressure lifts from mn to the upper great lakes.

Some gale gusts to 35 knots will be possible across eastern lake
superior from late morning into the afternoon. The winds will become
nw on Friday as the low departs to the east, with 20-30 knots
expected for the east half. Lighter winds, mostly under 20 knots,
are expected over the weekend into early next week with high
pressure over the region.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

beach hazards statement through this evening for miz014.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Jlb
long term... Rolfson
aviation... 07
marine... Jlb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 4 mi41 min SE 9.9 G 21 64°F 1006.8 hPa64°F
45173 15 mi97 min SSE 21 58°F 63°F2 ft1006.5 hPa (-2.6)
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 37 mi49 min E 1 G 1.9 61°F 1005.6 hPa59°F
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 44 mi57 min SSE 16 G 20 66°F 1009.8 hPa
GRIM4 44 mi37 min E 9.9 G 11 63°F 1006.5 hPa (-2.4)63°F
45171 44 mi97 min E 7.8 59°F 63°F2 ft1006.4 hPa (-2.2)
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 53 mi57 min SE 20 G 25 67°F 1006.1 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI4 mi1.7 hrsSE 10 mi65°F63°F93%1008 hPa

Wind History from P53 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S3CalmS3N5--NE10NE15NE13NE11NE9NE4CalmCalmS3S4S5SE8S9
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1 day agoCalmNW5NW7NW7NW7NW8NW6NW11NW10NW12NW10NW6NW8NW4CalmW3N3S3S6S6S6S5S7S3
2 days agoS5S5S5S5S5SW6W4CalmN5NE6NE4N7NW74N3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4CalmS5S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.