Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Munising, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:12AMSunset 6:55PM Thursday October 19, 2017 11:24 PM EDT (03:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:45AMMoonset 6:16PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ249 957 Pm Edt Thu Sep 28 2017
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters... The areas affected include... Huron islands to marquette mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Marquette to munising mi... At 956 pm edt...doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm... Capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near presque isle...moving southeast at 20 knots. Locations impacted include... Laughing whitefish point...shot point...shelter bay...au train island...presque isle and grand island. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4649 8703 4644 8725 4659 8749 4669 8738 4665 8731 4673 8732 4679 8725 4667 8666 4641 8669 4640 8672 4643 8677 4640 8690
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ249 Expires:201709290245;;082710 FZUS73 KMQT 290157 MWSMQT MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 957 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2017 LSZ248-249-266-290245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Munising, MI
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location: 46.38, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 192334
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
734 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 318 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions into early evening...

dew points mainly in the lower to mid 20s this afternoon have led to
rh values close to 20 pct with elevated fire weather concerns.

Fortunately, wsw winds haven't been overly gusty with only a few
inland locations reaching 20 mph or greater. Over the keweenaw, west
winds have been a bit more gusty in the 25 to 30 mph range. Temps
under partly cloudy skies have been generally in the lower 60s.

Winds will continue to subside later this afternoon with diminished
mixing.

Tonight, return flow will develop across the area as surface high
pressure tracks east and a developing surface low in the lee of the
northern rockies in canada becomes established. This moister return
southerly flow will push the drier air out the region overnight, so
dew points should be on the rise. The combination of better mixing
from southerly gradient winds and increasing low-level moisture will
result in fairly mild overnight lows from the lower to mid 40s
inland central and east to the upper 40s to lower 50s west and
near the great lakes.

Friday, warm advection southerly wind flow under mostly sunny skies
and mixing of 15-16c 900-925 mb temps to sfc will result in max
temps in the lower to mid 70s west half. Lake moderation off lake
mi in southerly flow will keep temps a bit cooler east half
(generally in the upper 60s).

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 318 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017
Friday night: high pressure will slowly slide off to the east of the
area. As this happens, moisture will steadily return to the area
ahead of an approaching cold front. The main impact this will have,
is an increase in cloud cover from the west. There may be a few rain
showers that slide into the far western u.P.; however, dry air in
the mid levels will limit the chances. Lows will be a bit warmer
with southerly flow as most areas will be in the 50s.

Saturday into Sunday: an upper level trough is expected to slide
from the plains eastward through the upper great lakes region
through this time period. At the surface, the associated strong
surface low is expected to slide north of the area, and remain
mainly over canada. This will drag a cold front through the upper
peninsula Saturday afternoon and night and then to the east of the
area by Sunday evening. Increased moisture and forcing ahead of the
front will allow for widespread rain showers to spread across the
u.P. Current model trends have roughly a half inch of precip across
the area by the time the precipitation ends late Sunday afternoon.

There may be just enough instability around for Saturday afternoon
and Saturday evening ahead of the front for a few thunderstorms;
however, thunderstorm potential does look to be fairly marginal
overall. Temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees above normal
through this time period.

The rest of the extended: there will likely be a brief break in the
precipitation Sunday night as a brief ridge builds into the area;
however, another slow-moving low pressure system is expected to
slide through for Monday through Wednesday. Aloft, a much deeper
trough will dig into the upper great lakes region. This will allow
enough cold air to slide into the region to cause some snow to mix
in with the rain over the higher terrain of the west. The ground is
still warm and overall QPF is not expected to be that impressive, so
not expecting too much in the way of accumulation. 850mb
temperatures are progged to drop into the -5c to -7c range
(according to the GFS with the ec being about 5 degrees warmer),
creating delta-t values in the 17 to 19c range, depending on how
much cold air is drawn into the area. This will be prime for lake
enhancement. The favored areas will have to be pinned down as models
come into better agreement, but it looks like the northwest wind
lake effect prone areas would have the best chance at this point.

Thursday, the ec is hinting at continued troughing aloft with cooler
air, while the GFS is trending more toward a warming ridging pattern
across the area. Model consensus was used and unaltered for this
time period.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 733 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017
low level wind shear is expected at kiwd and ksaw overnight as
southwesterly winds increase above the nocturnal inversion.

Otherwise,VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24
hours.

Marine (for the 4 pm lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 318 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017
winds have diminished blo gales this afternoon and will continue to
diminish this evening. Tonight winds will subside to around or less
than 25 knots. Friday through Monday, winds will remain mostly
between 20 and 25 knots.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Voss
long term... Kec
aviation... Jlb
marine... Voss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 4 mi89 min SSW 6 48°F 1016.7 hPa35°F
45173 15 mi45 min SW 9.7 51°F 55°F2 ft1016.1 hPa
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 37 mi55 min SE 8.9 G 11 55°F 1014.7 hPa
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 44 mi45 min SSW 11 G 15 56°F 1017.3 hPa
GRIM4 44 mi35 min SSE 12 G 13 59°F 1015.4 hPa41°F
45171 44 mi35 min SSE 5.8 51°F 55°F1 ft1015.2 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 53 mi45 min SSW 11 G 13 58°F 1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI4 mi29 minSSW 6 mi53°F34°F48%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from P53 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6W54435SW6SW7S7S7SW6SW65
G15
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NW6NW6E3CalmSW4SW4SW6SW6
1 day agoS8S7S6S5S7S7S8SW10S9
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2 days agoS7SW9S8S10
G17
S11S10SW9SW11SE3S5S5S3NW5NW11N8N4NE10NE6N5CalmS5SW4S5S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.