Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Munising, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 6:27PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:58 AM EST (10:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:14AMMoonset 12:45AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ249 957 Pm Edt Thu Sep 28 2017
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters... The areas affected include... Huron islands to marquette mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Marquette to munising mi... At 956 pm edt...doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm... Capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near presque isle...moving southeast at 20 knots. Locations impacted include... Laughing whitefish point...shot point...shelter bay...au train island...presque isle and grand island. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4649 8703 4644 8725 4659 8749 4669 8738 4665 8731 4673 8732 4679 8725 4667 8666 4641 8669 4640 8672 4643 8677 4640 8690
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ249 Expires:201709290245;;082710 FZUS73 KMQT 290157 MWSMQT MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 957 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2017 LSZ248-249-266-290245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Munising, MI
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location: 46.38, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 221008
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
508 am est Thu feb 22 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 508 am est Thu feb 22 2018
no hazards concerns until late this evening through tonight when
moderate to, at times, heavy snow will move in.

A shortwave and a weak 1018mb surface low will move to just SW of
the CWA by 12z fri. Warm air advection out ahead of the low, along
with forcing from the shortwave and low, will lead to widespread
wet, heavy (around 12:1 snow ratios) snow. Snow moves in from the sw
around 03z tonight and should be falling across all of the central
and W by 09z, then across the entire area by 12z. Fgen enhancement
looks to provide some increased rates and snow totals across the
keweenaw. Storm total snow tonight into Fri morning is expected to
be 2 to 4 inches over much of the area, with greater amounts to
around 6 inches possible across the keweenaw. With the timing of the
heaviest snow around the morning commute and the wet, heavy nature
of the snow, decided to issue a winter storm warning for the
keweenaw peninsula and advisories from marquette and delta counties
west. The eastern counties may have to be added depending on future
model guidance, but at this time data suggests less potential for
increased amounts there.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 440 am est Thu feb 22 2018
active pattern continues into this weekend. Two primary winter
weather systems affect the area first part of Fri and again sat
night into sun.

Bulk of snow with Fri system will be exiting northern upper michigan
by mid morning fri. Mid-level shortwave and increasing moisture
advection ahead of sfc-h85 trough are main drivers for the snow.

Snow could taper off as freezing drizzle or drizzle before ending
midday fri. Though mainly marginal snow amounts of 2-4 inches
(heavier on the keweenaw peninsula) are expected mainly from late
this evening through mid morning fri, the impact could be higher due
to the timing of heaviest snow occurring just before or during the
fri morning commute and as the snow will be wet heavy with slrs less
than 15:1.

Small chances for lake effect linger into Fri night as h85 temps
fall toward -10c and there is widespread low-level moisture. High
pressure builds across on Sat and with mostly sunny skies, should
see high temperatures well into the 30s. Next system will quickly
approach from the southern plains on Sat evening. Shortwave that is
main instigator for this system currently is sliding along the
pacific northwest coast as seen in the WV loop. As this shortwave
emerges onto the central plains sat, expect lee cyclogenesis to
result in 995-1000mb sfc low over ia or northern mo by Sat evening.

Shortwave becomes negatively tilted as it lifts toward upper great
lakes late Sat night into Sun morning. Associated sfc low deepens to
below 990mb by Sun morning with a location somewhere over central or
eastern upper michigan. Given the strengthening system and mixing
ratios of 3-3.5g kg, can see why some of the models are generating
12 hour QPF either from 00z-12z Sun or 06z-18z Sun over 1 inch to
the west of sfc low lifting through the region. GFS and tail end of
nam indicate heaviest QPF stays over far west or more to the west of
our forecast area. GEFS probabilities of QPF over 0.50 or 1.00 inch
also tilts more to far western forecast area and on to the west.

We'll see if these trends continue to hold up. If so, there could be
a period of very heavy snow over western u.P. Sat night into sun
morning with moderate snow changing to a wintry mix of snow sleet
and freezing rain freezing drizzle over central and eastern forecast
area. After some data issues last couple days, do have the ec back
and that also indicates best chance for heavier QPF over far western
tier. With strong sfc low, chances are winds will turn breezy sun
aftn into Sun evening. Since snow preceeding winds will be wetter
and temps by Sun aftn will be back into the 30s, blowing snow should
be limited. Given the strong system and moisture inflow present,
this system will continue to be monitored, but before really
tackling it will first have to get through tonight into Fri system.

Light les possible in wake of the Sun system Sun night into mon.

Marginal temps and decreasing low-level moisture as main system
quickly lifts into northern quebec should limit extent of les.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1250 am est Thu feb 22 2018
vfr ceilings and visibilities are will prevail through about 00z
Thursday with light winds. As a clipper system approaches from the
southwest, MVFR conditions are expected at kiwd and kcmx by about
05z in accordance with lowered ceilings and visibilities. There is
somewhat low confidence that MVFR conditions will be met before 05z
Thursday depending on the speed of the incoming system, but exact
timing will be refined in later updates.

Marine (for the 4 am lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 508 am est Thu feb 22 2018
gales are possible Sat night into Sun night as a strong low pressure
system moves through the region, but no gales are expected otherwise.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

winter weather advisory from 10 pm est 9 pm cst this evening
to 10 am est 9 am cst Friday for miz002-004-005-009>013-
084.

Winter storm warning from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est Friday
for miz001-003.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Titus
long term... Jla
aviation... Borchardt
marine... Titus


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 4 mi62 min S 7 1°F 1038.8 hPa-1°F
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 37 mi40 min W 1.9 G 4.1 1035.9 hPa
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 44 mi78 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 9°F 1038.3 hPa
GRIM4 44 mi28 min W 6 G 8 19°F 1037.1 hPa12°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 53 mi78 min NNE 7 G 8 16°F 1036.9 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI4 mi62 minS 7 mi1°F0°F91%1038.8 hPa

Wind History from P53 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW7W46W5W755NE6NE4NW5NE7N6CalmS5S5S3S4S4S6S5S4S5S7
1 day agoE4E4CalmCalmCalmNW3N4N4N3E3CalmSW3CalmNW11NW10NW10NW10
G18
NW10NW10NW10NW8NW11NW9NW11
G15
2 days agoNW5NW10N8NW12NW15NW14N13N15NE17NE17N13N13NE15NE14NE9NE8NE9N10NE10NE6NE8NE8NE6NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.