Wednesday, May22, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Packwood, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:39PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 4:54 PM PDT (23:54 UTC) Moonrise 11:31PMMoonset 7:36AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 257 Pm Pdt Wed May 22 2019
Tonight..N wind 5 to 15 kt easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..Light wind becoming N to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sat..S wind to 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N wind to 10 kt becoming variable after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..N wind to 10 kt rising to 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..SW wind to 10 kt rising to 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft.
PZZ100 257 Pm Pdt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Onshore flow tonight will increase Thursday afternoon and evening, then ease a bit Friday and Saturday. Offshore flow will develop on Sunday as a weak thermal trough moves to the coast. Onshore flow will increase again on Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Packwood, WA
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location: 46.39, -121.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 222103
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
200 pm pdt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis Warmer temperatures, but with a continued chance for
showers and thunderstorms mainly over and near the cascades, will
continue through Thursday as a broad upper level trough of low
pressure remains over the interior western states. On Friday another
upper level low pressure system will move down the british columbia
coast and over the pacific northwest, bringing cooler temperatures
and renewed chances for showers lasting through most of the weekend.

Short term Tonight through Saturday... A trough of low pressure
over the southwest u.S. Wednesday afternoon will continue to bring a
moist unstable air mass west into the cascades this evening. Radar
in the early afternoon showed the first showers developing over the
cascades, as shown in most of the mesoscale models. As storms
devleop this afternoon, a southwest motion will tend to allow for
some showers or storms to drfit out into the willamette valley, so
in addition to the main threat for showers and storms over the
cascades will hang on to lower pops immeditately to the west of the

A ridge of high pressure aloft offshore is expected to press closer
to the coast Thursday, while the upper low lifts north through utah.

This will leave the cascades open to the chances for more wrap-
around showers and thunderstorms Thursday, but areas further west
will see a gradual stabilization of the air mass. An extensive deck
of low clouds is seen on satellite pictures this afternoon along and
off the coast in the more stable air mass under the high pressure.

The low level flow remains modestly onshore through Thursday
morning, so marine clouds are expected to remain entrenched along
the coast through Thursday morning, and will leave a chance for some
drizzle there as well. Clouds over the interior however are likely
to remain more patchy closer to the upper low over the interior
western states. Under rising heights aloft 850 mb and surface
temperatures will warm Thursday.

Models in good agreement showing another upper low sliding down the
britich columbia coast Friday. A more westerly low level flow ahead
of it will bring a deepening marine air mass into the region,
resulting in increased clouds and cooler temperatures for Friday and
Saturday. While the moisture isn't shown as being particularly deep
in model soundings, under 10k feet, it should be sufficient when
coupled with the upper low moving in to bring scattered showers to
most of the area Friday through Saturday.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday... The models agree on
the general trend throughout the extended. A low will slowly track
over the forecast area through Sunday leaving a wake of shortwaves
that will keep chances of precipitation within the forecast through
Monday night. The euro is leaning more towards the wetter side as
its low has a more organized circulation and stronger frontal
formation, this results in more rain. The forecast however, is
leaning more towards the GFS which still shows precipitation but not
as heavy. Both models show heavier precipitation in the cascades
Monday night.

A high pressure moving in from off-shore Tuesday will reduce
precipiation for the rest of the extended. A notable feature will be
the inversions that occur Sunday through Tuesday in the early
morning hours (around 5am); this will increase temperatures above
1500ft by roughly 5 degrees. -bphillips

Aviation As of 21z MVFR stratus covered the coast and into
the lower coastal river valleys, with localized ifr along the
beaches. Inland stratus has morphed into more of a stratocumulus
layer, with CIGS generally 035-050. The moderate onshore low-
level flow will maintain MVFR conditions for the coastal sites
through tonight. A deeper marine layer overnight will result in
slightly higher cigs, but still in the MVFR category. There is
the possibility of ifr through Thu morning. Will need to watch
for remnant convective activity drifting off the north oregon
cascades into the north cascade foothills and possibly east
portions of the north willamette valley and clark county in sw
washington early this evening. Any thunderstorm threat through
the evening should remain over the higher cascades. Marine
stratus spreads inland overnight, but CIGS may end up at low-end
vfr. Will go with CIGS 025 for the interior TAF sites to hedge on
the side of caution.

Kpdx and approaches... Morning MVFR stratus has become more of a
low-endVFR stratocumulus deck early this afternoon. There is a
small threat of showers for the terminal and vicinity from 01z to
03z thu. Models suggest this may be convective debris from cells
drifting off the cascades. Marine stratus returns late tonight.

Will go with CIGS around 025, but there is the possibility cigs
may end up at low-endVFR. Weishaar

Marine 12z models continue to show small craft advisory level
winds speeds over the outer waters through at least 18z thu. The
strongest speeds will be beyond 30 nm. Not expecting small craft
advisory speeds for the inner waters, but there is the potential
for 25 kt gusts in pzz255 late this afternoon through tonight.

This northerly wind pattern continues through at the weekend.

Wind speeds look to ease Thu night and Fri as another upper low
drops south from british columbia. This low will deepen the
marine layer. However, northwest wind behind the departing system
may produce gusts to 30 kt across the northwest portion of pzz270
late Thu night and fri. It appears the gradient weakens over the
weekend, with any small craft advisory wind potential confined to
the very far outer waters.

Seas will remain around 10 ft through Thu morning. Meanwhile, the
dominant period is forecast to shorten from 10 to 11 seconds
today, to 8 to 9 seconds by tonight. Although wave heights fall
just under 10 ft Thu afternoon, square-sea conditions can be
expected. Will extend the small craft advisory for hazardous seas
through at least 18z thu.

Model guidance shows seas exceeding 10 ft again Fri as the next
low pressure area along the british columbia coast drops south.

Latest spectral guidance has seas peaking around 14 ft in the
northern outer water. Seas then fall just below 10 ft Sat and
look to continue falling through Sun to around 4 to 5 feet.


Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 11 am pdt Thursday for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 11 am pdt
Thursday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 75 mi55 min 70°F 51°F1015.4 hPa (-0.5)
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 76 mi55 min 58°F1014.9 hPa (-0.6)
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 76 mi55 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1

Wind History for Longview, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
1 day ago53------------------------322SW632SE2E21S2
2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Kalama, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Saint Helens, Columbia River, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.