Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sault Ste. Marie, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 4:55 AM EDT (08:55 UTC) Moonrise 6:28PMMoonset 6:52AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ322 755 Am Est Sun Dec 16 2018
.the st marys river system has been reopened to vessel navigation... The united states coast guard in sault ste marie has reopened the st marys river system to navigation. The dense fog which affected the river system earlier in the day has now dissipated...allowing for safe navigation once again. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Dense fog was reducing visibilities to below 1 mile. Reduce your speed, and keep a lookout for other vessels, buoys, and breakwaters. Keep your navigation lights on. If not equipped with radar, you should consider seeking safe harbor. && lat...lon 4647 8412 4637 8414 4619 8408 4606 8395 4612 8382 4611 8378 4597 8392 4596 8400 4612 8417 4612 8423 4622 8437 4628 8430 4643 8436 4635 8456 4643 8468 4651 8462 4645 8448 4650 8442 4649 8427 4653 8422
LSZ322 Expires:201812161400;;879615 FZUS73 KAPX 161255 MWSAPX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Gaylord MI 755 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2018 LSZ322-161400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sault Ste. Marie, MI
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location: 46.46, -84.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 200852
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
452 am edt Wed mar 20 2019

Near term (tonight)
issued at 346 am edt Wed mar 20 2019

Rain snow mix today through tonight...

high impact weather potential: minimal. Some slushy snow
accumulations later today and this evening.

Pattern synopsis forecast: overnight composite analysis reveals a
split flow omega block pattern across the western CONUS with
downstream larger scale troughing lingering across eastern
canada great lakes and new england region. A couple of pertinent
short-waves of note, one dropping southward through western ontario
and a second closed wave over the nebraska kansas area. These two
systems are still expected to phase over the midwest ohio valley
region later today into Thursday, before continuing to the mid
atlantic coast.

At the surface, broad low pressure is across ontario pressing into
the northern great lakes - associated with the northernmost wave -
along with snowfall beginning to spread into northern michigan.

Secondary surface low is over missouri with some semblance of a
warm front extending northeastward across central illinois and
cold front stretching down through oklahoma. Keeping an eye on
that small but heavier batch of precip moving through SE iowa
into illinois... Within a region of strong warm advection and mid
level deformation.

Primary forecast concerns: p-type and potential snow
accumulations.

Northernmost short-wave expected to tighten close off and drop
down through the western great lakes today into tonight. Precip
ahead of this system will continue to spread across lake superior
and down into northern michigan as we go through the day although
precip is expected to mainly be on the light side. I'm most
interested in that precip off to our SW crossing into illinois. As
the wave closes off, strong short-wave and deformation forcing
develops across lower michigan with precip expanding out of
illinois up through lower michigan and across the SE E part of
the cwa. Looking like a period of somewhat heavier precip roughly
between 18z and 02z and that is where I will focus the highest
pops and qpf... Greatest QPF toward saginaw bay.

P-type and potential snow accumulations today early evening are
tricky and will be regulated by surface temps low level melting
layer (no warm layer aloft with this one). While temperatures will
likely warm into the lower and middle 40s across northern lower
michigan by midday, once that heavier precip rotates up through
the region surface temperatures are likely to drop quickly back
through the 30s (evap cooling and such) leading to a rain-snow
mix and possibly just snow if precip rates are high enough.

Heavier precip rates might lead to some slushy snow accumulations
despite above freezing temps and time of day. So with that in
mind, i've introduced minor snow accumulations across the se
counties for this afternoon. Lighter precip rates and QPF will
result in little or no snow accumulations elsewhere.

Tonight: closed sort-wave continues to cross lower michigan
through the course of the night, although strongest forcing moves
on to the east by late evening early overnight. Larger scale
precip will wind down rather quickly this evening. Might pick up
additional light snow accumulations (half inch or less) this
evening as temperatures further cool to around freezing.

Not a bit event overall. But, a period of heavier precip snowfall
with slushy snow accumulations could pose a hazard on some area
roadways this afternoon and evening. Not planning any headlines
but it is worth keeping an eye on.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 346 am edt Wed mar 20 2019
high impact weather potential: possibility of freezing drizzle
Thursday evening night.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: precipitation types.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A weak low pressure and upper level
trough along with synoptic moisture resides over the great lakes
region while a large area of high pressure centered over the central
great plains and associated dry air ridge all the way through
western canada. Said high pressure will stay in place as yet another
upper level trough digs into the great lakes from a low pressure
system near hudson bay... Along with another shot of moisture and
colder temperatures.

The first wave of low pressure mentioned above will continue it's
move eastward as a lull in moisture and a weak ridge of high
pressure will traverse the region between this wave and the next.

Thursday morning will see diminishing precipitation chances as best
synoptic forcing will be transiting eastwards. This will cause some
decreased cloudiness and only some very light lingering showers
through the afternoon hours Thursday. During the evening hours low
level moisture will be on the increase and become widespread across
northern michigan, producing rain snow, but will be overrun by drier
mid levels within a few hours. This will be of concern for some
freezing drizzle to develop... Especially over eastern upper and
interior portions of northern lower where surface temperatures are
expected to be below freezing. Forecast soundings show the mid
levels becoming saturated during the overnight early morning hours
Friday as the next wave of low pressure is over northern michigan.

This also brings in another shot of cooler air changing over any
remaining precipitation to all snow. As 850mb temperatures drop to
-12 to -14c during the afternoon hours Friday there could be some
lake enhancement for portions of eastern upper and northwest lower
michigan... As well as some light lingering lake effect as the
synoptic moisture begins to move off to the east and high pressure
builds into the forecast area. Decreased cloudiness and dwindling
precipitation chances will occur rapidly from northwest to southeast
as very dry air associated with said high pressure quickly moves in
Friday evening night.

High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s Thursday and
only reach into the upper 20s to mid 30s Friday as the colder air
filters into the region.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 346 am edt Wed mar 20 2019
high impact weather potential: none
widely varying temperatures with limited chances for precipitation
through the period. The great lakes and upper midwest will be
largely dominated by high pressure during the forecast period which
will limit pcpn chances into the beginning of next week. However,
there is a small chance for pcpn Sunday night, the result of a weak
boundary dropping south over the state. Mild temperatures are
expected through the weekend due to weak upper ridging, with a
return to colder temperatures early next week as mid lvl temps fall
back to -12c in a developing upper trough.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 452 am edt Wed mar 20 2019
low pressure will move out of ontario and down through the western
great lakes today through tonight. Light precipitation (rain snow
mix) will gradually overspread the region mainly this afternoon
into this evening. Expect lowering CIGS and vsbys to MVFR with
this system. Precip diminishes tonight. But with some fog mist
may linger overnight into Thursday morning with ifr conditions
possible.

Marine
Issued at 346 am edt Wed mar 20 2019
a period of gustier SW winds today will lead to small craft
advisory conditions on parts of lake michigan. Gusty winds again
Thursday night and Friday may again lead to small advisory
conditions.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lmz344>346.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 2 mi38 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 1015.6 hPa
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 4 mi38 min ESE 5.1 G 6
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 13 mi44 min SSE 6 G 7 31°F 1015.5 hPa24°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 15 mi38 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 1016 hPa
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 17 mi44 min SSW 6 G 11 36°F 1014.5 hPa16°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 39 mi44 min SSW 5.1 G 8 33°F 34°F1016 hPa28°F
WFPM4 - Whitefish Point, MI 40 mi76 min SSW 8 G 9.9 33°F 1014.2 hPa
SRLM4 48 mi56 min S 17 35°F 33°F21°F

Wind History for Little Rapids, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sault Ste. Marie, MI3 mi61 minENE 510.00 miOvercast32°F24°F73%1016.5 hPa
Sault Ste Marie, Chippewa County International Airport, MI16 mi60 minSW 610.00 miOvercast36°F25°F64%1019 hPa

Wind History from ANJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE3CalmE4CalmSE3SE5S6SE7S8SW11
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SW13SW10S8S6S4CalmSE4CalmS3S5E5
1 day agoW3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmW4W7NW6NW3NW3W4W3CalmW3NW4CalmCalmE3
2 days ago3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmSE4S4Calm5NW9NW7NW8N7NW11
G16
NW7W6NW5W3SW4CalmW5W6W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.