Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Park, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 9:16PM Friday June 23, 2017 12:08 PM PDT (19:08 UTC) Moonrise 4:19AMMoonset 7:47PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 900 Am Pdt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 pm pdt this evening...
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect from late tonight through Saturday morning...
In the main channel..Combined seas around 5 ft. However, seas will temporarily build to near 7 ft with breakers likely during the ebb around 515 pm this afternoon and to 8 feet with breakers during the very strong ebb around 530 am Sat morning.
PZZ200 900 Am Pdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pres over the northeast pacific and thermal low pres over the northern california and southern oregon coast will continue through Sat afternoon. A weak low develops over the waters Sat night and remains through Mon. High pres rebuilds over the waters Mon night and Tue.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Park, WA
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location: 46.5, -124.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 231619
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
919 am pdt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis High pressure over the forecast area will strengthen
through the weekend. A thermally-induced surface trough and resultant
offshore low-level flow will result in hot temperatures, particularly
Saturday and Sunday. A southwest marine surge occurs along the
central coast Saturday night and Sunday then a deeper marine push
occurs Monday for cooler temperatures inland. Strong onshore flow
continues Tuesday through mid-week, potentially followed by a gradual
warming trend late in the week.

Short term This afternoon through Sunday... Biggest change this
morning was to drop the heat advisory for today (Friday). With low
temperatures this morning just a few degrees above normal and high
temperatures only expected to peak inland around 90 degrees to maybe
the low 90s, which certainly isn't a rarity for this time of year,
don't think there will be a big enough impact to warrant an advisory.

In addition, dewpoints will remain in the 40s today, which will
create low humidity and therefore the heat index will actually be
even a couple of degrees cooler than the actual temperature. Other
than dropping the advisory, the forecast looks to be on track with
another day today of lots of sun, a bit of breeze, and a continuing
warming trend. Bowen
the remainder of the short term forecast discussion is unchanged...

today starts the main warming trend. The 23 00z ksle sounding came in
with an 850 mb temp of 15.8c, about as forecast 24 hours ago. The 00z
nam, gfs, and ECMWF all show 850 temps warming to 18c today in the
far north to 22c in the far south, or another 4-5 deg c from thu. The
18z GEFS plumes for kpdx suggest upper 80s today. The low-level flow
remains more north this morning, then should shift to northeast by
the afternoon. The NAM shows offshore flow developing in the gorge
this morning, but it may not impact kttd until early afternoon.

Overall, nudged todays MAX temps down a couple degrees.

Friday night the thermally-induced surface trough is expected to the
cover the coast, oregon coast range and SW washington willapa hills.

The offshore flow should peak late Friday night and Sat morning. The
nam indicates a kttd-kdls gradient around -3 to -4 mb 12z sat. Expect
pronounced subsidence inversions in the higher terrain as well. The
operational run of the GFS and ECMWF boost 850 mb temps to around
22-25c 00z sun. The 18z GEFS plumes for kpdx show many ensemble
members in the mid 90s sat. As has been the case the past few days,
believe the latest met and mav guidance are too warm for sat. In any
event, heat advisory conditions are highly likely across much of the
forecast area sat, including the coast.

Things get a little interesting sun. The 00z NAM continues its trend
of showing the southwest marine surge beginning early Sun evening
along the south coast. By 12z the NAM has the south wind reversal to
near konp. Meanwhile, an upper level trough is forecast to track
across central and south british columbia sun, which flattens the 500
mb ridge. Models show the thermal trough hanging tough over the
northern third of the forecast area Sun morning. The NAM wants to
shift it east of the cascades by Sun afternoon. This trend is a
well-known bias for the nam. Typically, the thermal trough does not
jump the cascades until early evening. However, some marine air
seepage is expected to leak into the central oregon coast range
valleys and get into the south end of the willamette valley sun
afternoon. The central columbia gorge and mt. Adams area will have
their warmest day sun. Another expected subtle change Sun will be
higher dew points. South to southwest mid-level flow will allow some
moisture to creep north from the sierras. In addition, there will be
less wind, except near the west end of the gorge, to make things feel
a little more sticky. Weishaar

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows... Sunday night
through Friday... Models in good agreement showing a significant
cooling trend early next week. The GFS and ECMWF generally agree
showing a one-two punch Sun night through mon. Both models show a
short-wave approaching the N california coast 12z mon, while another
short-wave drags across SW british columbia. Have left the slight
chance mention of thunderstorms for the higher lane county cascades
late Sun night through mon. Model soundings are not all that
impressive and the mid-level flow becomes sw-w by late Sun night, but
cannot rule out some elevated convection over the higher lane county
cascades at the leading edge of the deepening marine layer. A few
storms could initiate just before the marine air arrives, but any
that do develop will be quickly pushed east.

The bigger story will be the significant cooling Mon as MAX temps
fall to near normal values. Models maintain a deep marine layer tue
and wed, which lowers MAX temps to a few degrees below normal. The
onshore flow should bring plenty of marine stratus into the
region Tue morning, with clouds clearing back to the coast in the
afternoon. The same general pattern holds through the rest of the
week, but inland marine intrusion may be less widespread each
morning. The GFS and ECMWF show much more variance late next week,
with the ECMWF moving a 500 mb ridge axis to the near the coastline
12z fri. The GFS keeps it much more offshore, with cyclonic NW flow
aloft over the area, which would result in stronger onshore flow
compared to the ecmwf. Weishaar

Aviation Strengthening high pressure and dry north winds will
continue to bring widespreadVFR conditions the next 24 hours.

North winds will become gusty in the afternoon along the coast
and the interior valleys.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR the next 24 hours. North winds will
increase and gust to around 20 kt this afternoon evening. 64

Marine Expect gusty north winds and steep seas to persist
today, with little change in the overall pressure pattern. Winds
will turn weakly offshore late tonight ending the small craft
winds. However, the winds beyond 20 nm will still be gusty, and
close to small craft advisory criteria through Saturday night.

A southerly wind reversal will move northward across the waters
Saturday night and Sunday. Seasonal northerly winds return early
next week. 64 tj

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Excessive heat watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for cascade foothills in lane county-cascades in
lane county-central coast range of western oregon-central
columbia river gorge-central willamette valley-coast range
of northwest oregon-greater portland metro area-lower
columbia-northern oregon cascade foothills-northern oregon
cascades-south willamette valley-upper hood river valley-
western columbia river gorge.

Heat advisory from noon to 9 pm pdt Saturday for central oregon
coast-north oregon coast.

Wa... Excessive heat watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for central columbia river gorge-greater vancouver
area-i-5 corridor in cowlitz county-south washington
cascade foothills-south washington cascades-western
columbia river gorge-willapa hills.

Heat advisory from noon to 9 pm pdt Saturday for south
washington coast.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 5 am pdt Saturday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 3 am pdt Saturday
for coastal waters from cascade head or to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 3 pm
this afternoon to 6 pm pdt this evening.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 3 am to
7 am pdt Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 15 mi56 min ENE 13 G 17 71°F 62°F1021.8 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 20 mi68 min 58°F5 ft
46096 23 mi158 min N 14 G 16 52°F 54°F1022.2 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 24 mi56 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 65°F1020.3 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 27 mi46 min 56°F4 ft
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 28 mi92 min NE 6 G 7 66°F 58°F1022.4 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 35 mi78 min N 16 G 18 60°F 58°F5 ft1021.3 hPa (-0.6)54°F
46T29 38 mi48 min N 16 G 19 60°F 58°F1021.9 hPa55°F
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 41 mi68 min 59°F6 ft
46099 44 mi198 min N 7.8 57°F 59°F1023.2 hPa

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR25 mi73 minN 510.00 miFair71°F51°F49%1020.3 hPa

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Last 24hrNW13
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NW20NW16NW18NW15NW16NW13NW17NW12NW10W4W6NW13SE5CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmN5N8N5N5
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Tide / Current Tables for Nahcotta, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Nahcotta
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:50 AM PDT     12.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:19 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM PDT     -2.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:08 PM PDT     9.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:32 PM PDT     New Moon
Fri -- 07:39 PM PDT     2.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:47 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.912.411.59.36.33.20.2-1.8-2-0.42.14.77.299.89.486.14.22.72.53.96.48.9

Tide / Current Tables for Palix River, south fork, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Palix River
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:47 AM PDT     10.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:18 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:46 AM PDT     -2.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:09 PM PDT     7.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:32 PM PDT     New Moon
Fri -- 07:48 PM PDT     1.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:46 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
9.7109.27.55.12.5-0.1-2.2-2.6-1.40.83.25.57.27.97.66.54.93.31.81.42.64.76.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.