Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 8:43 PM   Moonset 5:32 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 240853 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 453 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will cross the area today then continue into the Maritimes this evening as a cold front following the low pushes offshore. High pressure will build across the region Thursday into Saturday. A warm front will approach Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low pressure will push east into our area today ahead of a small but vigorous upper trough pushing across Quebec. Rain, supported by lift out ahead of the upper trough and surface convergence with the surface low, will push into western areas early this morning then reach the east by late morning. This will be a light rain with amounts ranging from a third of an inch over the north to less than a tenth of an inch Downeast. As the low continues east into New Brunswick late this afternoon, colder air will surge in behind the low changing the rain over to snow around early afternoon in the northwest and late afternoon in the northeast. The snow will taper off early this evening. Snow amounts up to an inch are possible over the north, mainly on grassy surfaces, with a little over an inch possible over higher elevations.

Low pressure will continue away through the Maritimes tonight as a quick surge of cold air rushes in behind the low on gusty northwesterly winds. Lows by morning will range from near 20 over the north to 30 along the coast. A gusty northwesterly wind will continue all night keeping the air well mixed as the sky becomes clear over central and southern areas and partly cloudy across the northeast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Surface/upper level low pressure will exit across the Maritimes Thursday. A disturbance rotating around the upper low will clip the region early Thursday. The disturbance could bring the slight chance of a snow shower to northern Aroostook county early Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure will build toward the region Thursday with partly/mostly sunny skies north with mostly sunny skies Downeast. The pressure gradient between the exiting Maritimes low and building high pressure will support gusty northwest winds Thursday. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are expected into early Thursday afternoon, then decreasing late.
High pressure builds across the region Thursday night through Friday night with mostly clear skies. Below normal level temperatures are expected Thursday, with near normal level temperatures Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will begin to slowly exit east Saturday, with a warm front approaching Saturday night. Expect mostly sunny skies Saturday morning, then partly sunny during the afternoon.
Clouds then increase Saturday night in advance of the approaching warm front. Could also have a slight chance/chance of rain showers late. The warm front stalls across the region Sunday. Expect a chance of showers with the stalling front Sunday. However, slowly exiting high pressure should help to limit the shower coverage. The boundary should begin to lift back north Monday, while high pressure remains ridged across the Maritimes. A chance of showers will persist Monday. Low pressure will begin to approach, from the west, later Monday night into Tuesday. Rain chances increase Monday night into Tuesday, with a steadier rain possible. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Saturday through Tuesday.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will drop to MVFR late this morning then IFR this afternoon in rain, and some snow north. Conditions will likely improve to MVFR then VFR tonight, first Downeast then across the north. Winds will be light southerly today then strong gusty northwesterly tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday...Occasional MVFR possible with a slight chance of snow showers across northern areas early. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Thursday night through Saturday..VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday night, then around 10 knots Friday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Friday night through Saturday.

Saturday night...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a slight chance to chance of rain showers. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds will be below SCA today then increase to a strong SCA tonight in gusty NW winds following a cold frontal passage. Seas will build up to 5 ft today then 6 ft tonight.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions expected into Thursday. Winds/seas then below small craft advisory levels Thursday night into Friday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.

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