Monday, December11, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:09AMSunset 4:44PM Monday December 11, 2017 5:09 AM AST (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 1:06AMMoonset 1:46PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, ME
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location: 46.62, -68.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 110744
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
244 am est Mon dec 11 2017

Weak low pressure will move east this afternoon. High pressure
will build across the region tonight. Strong low pressure will
lift across the region later Tuesday through early Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
The model guidance is in good agreement through the near term
period of the forecast. A short wave through will be moving
into NW maine at the start of the period and will move east of
the area by early afternoon. Higher pressure will ridge into the
area ahead of the next frontal system that will move into nw
maine early Tuesday morning and will remain across the area
through the end of the period.

Loaded a blend of the GFS nam ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded nawave4 for seas in the
coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday
An upper trough digging into the great lakes is expected to
close off across the eastern great lakes Tue afternoon and a
deep upper low is forecast to track across maine Wed with 500h
heights dropping to around 500 dam. A surface low is forecast
to deepen and track from the eastern great lakes Tue morning and
into northern ny state and western new england by 00z wed. The
surface low is expected to track along the western maine quebec
border Tue night with the low near or a little north of quebec
city by 00z Thursday. Snow will overspread most of the central
highlands and downeast region just after the morning commute tue,
and is expected to spread into the saint john valley early to
mid afternoon. Initially there will be an excellent surface to
overrun with very cold air in the low levels, but given the
track of the low there is a major surge of warm air into the
region with 925h temps progged to surge to +7c Tue evening in
the bangor region, and perhaps above 0c all the way north to the
eastern saint john valley by late Tue night.

Expect the snow downeast will transition to rain by late
afternoon or early evening in the greater bangor region with
the transition working north Tue night, perhaps reaching all the
way north to the eastern saint john valley around the time the
precipitation winds down late Tue night. The snow ratios will
initially be high, i.E. 20:1, but will lower rapidly late in the
day Tue and tues night to more like 10:1 in the north where
most of the precipitation falls as snow. The total QPF is on the
order of 6 to 8 tenths of an inch. The best chance of reaching
low end warning level snowfall is across the far northwest in
zones 1, 3 and 4. After collaboration with WFO gray have elected
to keep these areas in a watch as it is still somewhat
borderline as to whether or not most of the area reaches
low end warning level snowfall. Will maintain the watches in
the next tier of zones to the south and east, but given the
latest trends suspect that the day shift may want to place the
southern tier of zones in an advisory. Again, after
collaboration with WFO gray will hold onto the watch, but will
end it much earlier by 00z Wednesday when temps should be well
into the 30s downeast and the precipitation should have changed
to rain. There is certainly the potential that snow
accumulations will only be in the 2 to 4 inch range in the
bangor area, but with the possibility of some higher snowfall
rates from around 18-22z will keep the watch with the morning
package. Did lower the amounts a bit where the transition to
rain is expected, but it is possible that later shifts may need
to lower amounts even more.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
A cold pattern expected. Clouds and scattered showers across
the north and mountains Wed night into Thu as deep low pressure
lifts well north of the area toward labrador. Partly cloudy
downeast during this time. Friday into Saturday are looking
mainly dry and cold, however, an area of low pressure offshore
could clip the far southeast zones late Fri night or early sat
with a period of snow, but most of the models and ensembles keep
this system far enough east for minimal impacts. A weak clipper
coming in from the great lakes may bring a little snow to the
area Sunday, but at this time does not look like a big event.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
Near term: MVFR conditions across northern maine with scattered
snowshowers.VFR conditions for southeastern maine today. High
pressure builds into the area this afternoon bring clearing
conditions. Conditions at all sites will improve toVFR.

Increasing clouds and decreasing ceilings late evening with MVFR
condition returning to fve after midnight. MVFR conditions will
spread south by morning to car, pqi and hul. Then spread to bgr
and bhb by noon. Ifr conditions will move into northern maine by
the end of the period.

Short term: conditions will lower to ifr and lifr from south to
north across the area Tue as snow overspreads the area. The
snow will transition to rain at kbgr and kbhb by late in the day
tue. Conditions should improve to predominatelyVFR Wed morning
at the downeast terminals with ifr improving to mostly MVFR
from khul north to kfve.VFR should continue into Thu downeast,
with mainly MVFR at the northern terminals. MainlyVFR expected

Near term: a small craft advisory for seas will be in effect
through much of the near term portions of the forecast.

Short term: at least small craft advisory conditions likely to
persist Tue into Thu morning, with a short period of gales
possible late Tue afternoon into early Tuesday evening, with a
longer period of gales possible Wed afternoon into Wed night.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter storm watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning for mez002-005-006-010-011-031-032.

Winter storm watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning for mez001-003-004.

Winter storm watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening for mez015>017.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until midnight est
tonight for anz050-051.

Near term... Norton
short term... Cb
long term... Cb
aviation... Norton cb
marine... Norton cb

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Presque Isle, ME19 mi73 minN 010.00 miOvercast11°F8°F88%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from PQI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW10
1 day ago34S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW4CalmNE4E4NE4N5NE5NE4N7N9N7N10N9NW10N10
2 days agoW4S3--S5S7SW13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.