Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 9:15PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 9:34 PM ADT (00:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:49AMMoonset 5:24PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, ME
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location: 46.62, -68.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 232316
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
716 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region until Thursday. Low
pressure will approach from the southwest later Thursday and
track across the gulf of maine on Friday.

Near term through Wednesday
715 pm update...

quick update to ingest latest mesonet obs. Hv updated sky cvr
acrs SRN zones as cirrus wl continue acrs the area this evng bfr
heading south around midnight. No major chgs needed at this
time.

Prev discussion blo...

ridging dominates tonight and radiational cooling will produce
shallow inversions and lows dropping to the upper 30s in the
allagash. Elsewhere, expect lows in the 40s. Some patchy shallow
fog is possible later tonight towards the coast. The inversion
will quickly break early Wednesday morning and temperatures will
warm faster than today. Early in the day, there will be some
thicker areas of cirrus streaming northeastward from an area of
low pressure along the new jersey coast. The low will track
south of the gulf of maine later Wednesday. Fair weather cumulus
will develop for the afternoon... Especially in the northern
half of the forecast area. It's possible a few of these cumulus
could generate a very brief, light rainshower... But will not
include any pops. The chances would be highest along a trough
extending from the eastern great lakes towards the moosehead
lake region. With more sunshine and a slightly warmer air mass,
expect most areas to reach the lower 70s except the coast where
the weak flow will promote onshore breezes.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
The models are in good agreement through the period. At the
start of the period, the local area will be under a weak high
pressure ridge separating two areas of low pressure. The first
is in the north atlantic, south of nova scotia. The second is over
the southern midwest. By Thursday morning the low over the
midwest will deepen and move north to michigan, its associated
occluded front extending east into the atlantic east of long
island. Secondary development along the triple point can be
expected, though the GFS doesn't indicate it at this time.

Thursday evening the occluded front moves north to the gulf of
maine. Both the GFS and ECMWF show this solution. The gem shows
the front over south central maine running about 6 hrs ahead of
the other two models. Both the GFS and ECMWF show weakness and
winds supporting a low near CAPE cod. By Friday morning all 3
models move the front to central maine. The low deepens over
cape cod, with the upper level energy transferring to the low
over CAPE cod. The low will track east along the maine coast
through the day Friday, with good agreement that the low will
end up in or near the bay of fundy by the end of the period.

Loaded a blend of the GFS gem nam ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded nawave4 for seas in the
coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used
gfs.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
A low with a co-located upper low height center, located over
the bay of fundy will be the primary weather maker at the start
of the period. By Saturday morning, the low will track east
into the canadian maritimes and higher pressure will build
across the area. The extended models disagree on the next
system... A cold front over central quebec. The GFS moves it
south into northern maine. The ec keeps it stationary over
central quebec. A low over central il will deepen and move
northeast over lake huron, its associated warm front extending
east across nj into the north atlantic, and by Sunday evening
the warm front will be pushing into SW maine. Both extended
models indicate a secondary low but differ on its position. The
gfs develops the low near CAPE cod. The ec is east of CAPE cod
and south of nova scotia. Both models keep the occluded front
across maine through Wednesday afternoon when the cold front
finally pushes through. The upper low will track across the area
from Tuesday evening through the end of the period.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used
nawave4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.

Aviation 23z Tuesday through Sunday
Near term:VFR next 24 hours. Bhb may see patchy fog in onshore
flow btwn 06-10z thus have included tempo group. CU expected to
develop in the afternoon.

Short term:VFR conditions at all sites Wednesday evening
through late Thursday morning. Ceiling will begin to decrease as
an occluded front moves north into the gulf of maine Thursday
morning. Ceiling will decrease to MVFR by noon Thursday for bhb
and bgr, falling to lmfr to ifr Thursday evening. Hul, pqi, car
will fall to MVFR late Thursday afternoon, then to lMVFR to ifr
around midnight. Ifr conditions in rain will persist through the
day Friday as the low pressure move east along the downeast
coast. Conditions will break early Saturday morning as the low
moves east into eastern canada. All sites will improve toVFR.

Vfr conditions will hold until another front moves south out of
canada into northern maine at the end of the period bring fve,
car and pqi back to lMVFR, with periods of ifr in showers.

Marine
Near term: south to southeast swell around 3 feet will continue
through the period with light winds. Fog will diminish this
afternoon and evening, but patchy fog will briefly return late
tonight.

Short term: winds and seas below SCA through early Friday
morning. Winds will build to low end SCA conditions by around
3am Friday and will remain above SCA through midday Friday. Seas
will remain 5 ft or greater from Friday morning through midday
Saturday.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Farrar mcw
short term... Norton
long term... Norton
aviation... Farrar mcw norton
marine... Farrar mcw norton


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Presque Isle, ME19 mi38 minWNW 510.00 miA Few Clouds61°F44°F54%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from PQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S8S12S9S6S9S11S8S8S7SE4S5S7SW7SW9SW10
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1 day agoNW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm6SW9S9
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2 days agoNW6NW6NW4CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmW3N7N15N12NW12
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N9NW5N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.