Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 4:58PM Thursday November 15, 2018 6:03 AM AST (10:03 UTC) Moonrise 1:54PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, ME
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location: 46.62, -68.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 150932
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
432 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will cross the region today. Low pressure will
approach from the southwest Thursday night and track across the
gulf of maine Friday. A cold front will cross Saturday night and
bring more arctic air for next week.

Near term through Friday
1039mb sfc high pressure is into the green mountains and building
east tonight with pressure gradient slowly beginning to ease. This
wl allow temps to dip into the single digits by mrng at most
locations and possibly even blo 0f acrs the deeper vly locations ovr
the northwest.

Upr lvl low has inched twd the tn oh vlys with sfc low dvlpng off of
the southeast coast. As 5h low lifts twd the northeast tda it wl
begin to take on a negative tilt. As it does so sfc low wl cross the
outer banks this aftn and mv twd the DELMARVA peninsula by 00z
tonight. Closer to home high pressure wl build acrs CWA this aftn
and build into ERN canada overnight. This wl allow moisture to
overspread the area fm the SW after about midnight tonight.

00z GFS continues to be the outlier on eventual track of coastal
storm while nam, cmc and ec essentially on the same course. With gfs
being more offshore it ultimately offers the colder soln with all
snow ovr entire area. Other models indicate more of a mix on the
coast drg the aftn with potential for banding more inland thru cntrl
zones. For the time being hv gone with a compromise of the NAM gfs
for ptype with all snow starting out, then gradually mixing with
sleet and or rain fm late morning into the aftn right along the
immediate coast and outer islands given a track thru the gulf of
maine.

Due to very low confidence in snowfall amnts along with precip
types, hv continued with winter storm watch for cntrl zones with 5-8
inches possible in these areas. Mixing wl lkly cut down on snow
accums along the coast.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
Snow will wind down Friday evening. Still some question as to
whether a trowal with Friday's low will still affect
northeastern zones initially on Friday evening. However, a
separate upper level trough and moisture up to h600 seems
likely to produce another inch or two of snow across northern
zones... And less than an inch towards bangor. High pressure
builds later in the night with low temperature forecasts
dependent on fairly uniform cloud cover. Any clearing could
produce a sharp, shallow inversion. Relatively warm h925 temps
on Saturday should produce highs above freezing across the
entire forecast area and promote some snow melt. This will be
mildest day in the forecast until after thanksgiving. Snowshowers
are a threat in the afternoon with some instability to h800,
but not expecting more than a hundredth of an inch and will keep
pops low for most of the area at this time. The cold front
crosses Saturday night with scattered snowshowers... Mostly in
the western mts. The front introduces much colder air for
Sunday as highs will be below freezing except along the coast.

There will be more sunshine as high pressure and subsidence
gradually push out low level moisture.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Early season arctic outbreak...

there's potential for good radiational cooling Sunday evening
with light winds under high pressure, but increasing clouds are
a concern and have gone with a consensus blend of single digits
in aroostook county... Increasing southward to upper 20s along
the coast. An arctic front will cross the area Monday. Questions
remain as to whether a southern stream disturbance advertised by
gems and ECMWF can phase with the northern stream trough and
produce some advisory-level snow towards the down east
region... Or whether the area will just receive the arctic front
with little moisture and scattered snowshowers per the gfs.

Went with mostly chance pops except towards washington county
where confidence was high enough for likely. A cold arctic air
mass remains in place through the remainder of the period with
highs only in the teens north and 20s south. Lows on Tuesday and
Wednesday night will feature widespread single digits and the
threat of the season's first subzero readings.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
Near term:VFR at all terminals next 24 hours. Restrictions likely
to develop after 06z fri.

Short term: mostly ifr to lifr north of hul during Friday
evening due to snow... Improving toVFR outside of snowshowers
later Friday night into Sunday night. Bgr and bhb are expected
to beVFR Friday evening until Monday. On Monday, there's the
threat of ifr to lifr conditions in snow for all terminals.

Marine
Near term: wind gusts hv diminished below gale force but wl
increase AOA 34kts late tonight. Thus, hv issued gale warning
for all waters 08z-21z fri. Seas expected to increase abv 5ft
fri mrng as serly swell mvs in.

Short term: SCA conditions are expected Friday evening into
Saturday afternoon. The next threat for SCA conditions will be
later Monday through Monday night.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter storm watch from late tonight through late Friday night
for mez004>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz052.

Gale warning until 4 am est early this morning for anz050-051.

Near term... Farrar
short term... Mcw
long term... Mcw
aviation... Farrar mcw
marine... Farrar mcw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Presque Isle, ME19 mi68 minWNW 13 G 1910.00 miFair10°F3°F76%1036 hPa

Wind History from PQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW21
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1 day agoSE4SE7SE7SE7S6S5SE6S6Calm--E5CalmNW3NW5CalmW3W4W9W4W18
G30
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G36
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2 days agoCalmCalmW6NW9W10NW11
G17
W10NW12W10NW11
G16
W6W7W4SW3W5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.