Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Center, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:39PM Sunday March 26, 2017 9:49 AM PDT (16:49 UTC) Moonrise 5:37AMMoonset 5:11PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 901 am pdt Sun mar 26 2017 combined seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 7 to 9 ft late today. Bar conditions light...becoming moderate late today. The maximum ebb currents will occur around 430 pm this afternoon and 5 am Monday. PZZ100 901 Am Pdt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..An occluded front within 100 nm of the coast will move ashore early this afternoon and through the interior by late today. Low level offshore flow will turn onshore with the front. A surface trough is expected to move inland Monday with higher pres building behind it Monday night. The next pacific frontal system is forecast to arrive Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Center, WA
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location: 46.63, -123.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 261532
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
830 am pdt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis And the wet weather continues. Rainy today, but front
will push onshore later this afternoon with transition to showers.

Snow in the cascades, especially above the passes. Showers continue
on mon, but will see brief break in rain on tue. But, that short
lived as another round of rain will spread into the region Tue night.

Still looks good for a break with dry and mild conditions as we
prepare to close march later this week.

Short term (today through Tuesday)... No changes in forecasts.

Very active and progressive pattern continues across the north
pacific today, with the latest in the series of fronts approaching
the pac NW coast early this morning. Similar to our last couple of
systems, this front is occluding while moving onshore. This will
allow cooler air to linger over the cascades as precipitation
develops, especially mount jefferson northward. As a result, snow
levels are likely to start off below pass level this morning. The
oregon cascades may briefly get into the warm sector for a few hours
this afternoon; the combination of that and stronger late march solar
heating (despite being behind clouds) may be enough to allow the
passes to be wet or slushy this afternoon. The higher ski resort
elevations will see primarily snow from this system, and with overall
qpf possibly over an inch in the cascades through Monday, the higher
cascades could see up to a foot of snow by the time snow showers
taper off Mon night.

For the lower elevations, this will be another modest rainfall with
around 0.25 to 0.50" for the inland valleys, 0.50 to 1.00" for the
coast, and 1 to 2 inches for the coast range.

The occluding front will push east of the cascades late this
afternoon and evening, with cooler air aloft pushing in behind the
front with the parent upper trough. It appears the core of coldest
air aloft will move through well before peak heating Monday, so the
thunder/convection threat is not quite what it was last Friday.

Nonetheless, with the 00z GFS showing 500 mb temps as low as -30 deg
c over the coastal waters late tonight and early mon, we decided it
would be prudent to mention a slight chance of thunder along the
coast and over the coastal waters. 00z GFS 1000-700 mb lifted indices
remain below zero deg c through Monday, so showers will likely be
numerous across the forecast area Monday. However, a strengthening
cap just below 500 mb will probably keep convection shallow enough to
mitigate the threat of thunder.

Showers decrease Monday night as the onshore flow decreases,
subsidence associated with high pressure increases, and warm
advection aloft stabilizes the atmosphere. Based on latest guidance,
flat upper level ridging will probably succeed in building across
oregon, shoving the jet stream a little further north into washington
as the next system moves toward the coast Tuesday. The result will
likely be a mostly dry and mild day salem southward, with more in the
way of cloudiness for the pdx metro and a continued chance of rain
across much of SW washington Tuesday. weagle

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)... Upper-level pattern
becomes more amplified later next week, behind a trough that will
bring more rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, transitioning to
showers on Thursday. This means a ridge builds up over the pacific
northwest Friday for a dry and mild day. Models are in remarkably
good agreement with this ridge for how far out it is in the forecast
period, increasing confidence. Models however have the ridge
flattening with an approaching broad trough, with significant
differences in timing between the ECMWF (Saturday) and the gfs
(Monday). Either scenario will bring rain back to the area with the
flattening of this ridge. Snow levels generally hover around 4000 to
5000 feet, except for Wednesday and Friday when they go up to 6-8000
feet. Temperatures generally remain within a few degrees of late
march normals through the extended period, with Wednesday being the
coolest day as the upper trough swings through. -mccoy/weagle

Aviation PredominantVFR conditions this morning as rain
spreads across the area. Some MVFR CIGS and visibilities are
mixing in at times, but do not expect MVFR conditions to become
more widespread until this afternoon when the front moves
through. Along and ahead of the front, expect a brief period of
MVFR visibilities and possibly ceilings that will quickly improve
once again behind the front. Behind the front this
evening/overnight, conditions will be mostlyVFR with occasional
MVFR conditions in the heaviest rain showers.

Kpdx and approaches... MostlyVFR conditions except for a brief
several hour window this afternoon along and ahead of the front
when MVFR visibilities and possibly CIGS will move through.

Conditions will improve after this withVFR conditions except
for any occasional deteriorating conditions in heavier showers.

/bentley

Marine A strong frontal system will pass through the coastal
waters today, bringing a period of solid gale force southerly winds.

The strongest winds will be over the outer waters, where gale
gusts should begin by around sunrise. Winds will have an offshore
component, so the effects will be limited somewhat over the
nearshore waters. However, still think there will be some gusts
to 35 kt for a brief period right ahead of the cold front, which
will move onshore during the early to mid afternoon time frame.

Seas will see a sharp increase this later this morning and this
afternoon in response to the gusty winds. Expect them to top out
in the 13 to 15 ft range. Winds will subside and veer to the
west later this afternoon and this evening. Seas will also drop
fairly quickly tonight, likely falling below 10 ft by around
midnight.

There will be a lull in the weather later tonight and Mon as
weak high pres builds over the waters. However, a longer period
westerly swell will arrive Mon night, pushing seas back into the
teens. Then another low pres system will affect the pac NW tue
and wed. This will bring a period of winds gusting 25 to 30 kt,
with potential for some low-end gales Tue night into Wed morning.

Higher pres is then expected for Thu and fri, bringing a period
of more benign conditions to the waters. Pyle

Pqr watches/warnings/advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm pdt Monday for cascades in
lane county-northern oregon cascades.

Wa... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm pdt Monday for south
washington cascades.

Pz... Gale warning until 4 pm pdt this afternoon for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 10 nm.

Gale warning until 3 pm pdt this afternoon for waters from cape
shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 1 pm
this afternoon to 7 pm pdt this evening.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 5 mi49 min E 13 G 15 44°F 49°F1007.9 hPa (-2.1)
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 21 mi73 min SE 8.9 G 13 42°F 49°F1007.8 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 22 mi57 min 49°F7 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 30 mi49 min 48°F8 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 31 mi49 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 44°F 47°F1008.1 hPa (-2.2)

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA24 mi56 minENE 115.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F42°F97%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5S5SW6SW9SW11SW9SW10SW9SW6SW3S3NE4E5E8E8E8NE7NE8NE10NE10E10E10E11E11
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2 days agoE9NE10E11E15E13E10E12E12E6NE11E11E10NE11E11E12E11E8NE8NE6E5SE9E5E8E7

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Center, Palix River, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Bay Center
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Sun -- 12:59 AM PDT     8.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:09 AM PDT     1.66 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:55 PM PDT     9.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:11 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:33 PM PDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.498.57.35.74.12.51.72.23.95.87.68.99.48.97.55.63.71.80.50.41.93.96

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:58 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:13 AM PDT     -2.87 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:38 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:07 AM PDT     2.10 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:01 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:27 PM PDT     -3.40 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:11 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:29 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:38 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:35 PM PDT     2.52 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.4-0-1.5-2.4-2.9-2.6-1.6-0.211.82.121.30-1.6-2.8-3.3-3.3-2.3-0.80.71.92.42.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.