Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Willapa, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 9:15PM Thursday June 21, 2018 1:00 AM PDT (08:00 UTC) Moonrise 1:42PMMoonset 1:05AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 831 pm pdt Wed jun 20 2018 combined seas 3 to 5 feet. Bar conditions light. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 1145 pm tonight and noon Thursday. PZZ100 831 Pm Pdt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Strong onshore flow will continue this evening. Gale force westerlies are likely in the strait of juan de fuca tonight. Onshore flow will remain through the weekend and gales in the strait are possible each afternoon and evening.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willapa, WA
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location: 46.68, -123.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 210555 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service portland or
1055 pm pdt Wed jun 20 2018
updated aviation section

Synopsis Increased marine clouds and cooler temperatures Thursday
and Friday will give way to warmer and sunnier weather over the
weekend before cooler and cloudier conditions return early next week.

Short term Tonight through Saturday... Water vapor satellite
imagery reveals a shortwave trough moving northeastward across
southwest oregon. Plenty of showers and thunderstorms developed in
advance of this feature across the oregon and washington cascades
earlier this afternoon and evening. Speed shear was rather meager
across the area today, which led to updrafts struggling to sustain
themselves. A thunderstorm in the southern lane county cascades where
0-6km shear was slightly greater likely contained the largest hail of
the afternoon based on doppler radar signatures. However, we have not
received any ground truth reports verifying whether or not large hail
was observed under any of the thunderstorms in which warnings were
issued this afternoon and early this evening.

Several convective allowing models including members of the href and
hrrr suggested thunderstorms were a good possibility for the portland
metro this evening. Several updrafts (in the form of towering
cumulus) went up around the portland metro during the time the sea
breeze arrived, but no individual updraft could sustain itself for
reasons not completely known at this point. A few models have
continued to suggest elevated thunderstorms are a possibility
between 8-11pm this evening as the marine layer deepens and is able
to interact with the instability still present above 5000 feet.

Given few signs this will materialize per latest radar and satellite
imagery, it appears the chance of thunderstorms is certainly
diminishing across most of the area. Will maintain a slight chance
of a thunderstorm through the late evening hours to account for the
uncertainty, though.

Otherwise, the marine layer is quickly spreading into the willamette
valley with temperatures already in the low to mid 60s in
kelso longview, mcminnville, salem and eugene. Expect marine clouds
to push well into the cascades by daybreak on Thursday with sunshine
returning in the mid to late afternoon hours. Temperatures will be
slow to warm with high temperatures likely only topping out in the
mid 70s. Expect a near repeat Friday before upper level high pressure
shifts over the region on Saturday and results in fewer morning
clouds and afternoon temperatures approaching 80f in the willamette
valley. Neuman

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday night... A surface thermal
trough strengthens along the n. Ca and s. Or coast Saturday night as
high pressure dominates inland, and offshore flow should keep marine
clouds off the coast Saturday night. A sunny start Sunday will allow
slightly warmer temperatures Sunday afternoon with high temperatures
remaining above the seasonal normals. Models are in excellent
agreement that an upper level trough will send a series of shortwave
troughs over the region Sunday night through Tuesday for increased
morning clouds and cooler afternoon temperatures. ~tj

Aviation Thunderstorms are starting to diminish across the area
this evening as cooler marine air fills into the interior. Will keep
vcts in the TAF for kpdx and khio for the next hour or so due to the
storm near khio, but suspect it will not impact either terminal.

Otherwise, the interior will see marine stratus continue to fill
into the valley tonight, with MVFR CIGS expected at all interior
terminals by 11z. Low stratus in the interior is expected to lift
early Thursday afternoon, with conditions becomingVFR by 21z.

Strengthening onshore flow will keep the coast socked in with marine
stratus tonight and Thursday. Will see predominately MVFR CIGS along
the coast the next 24 hours, but several hours of ifr CIGS are
possible late tonight early Thursday morning as high pressure builds
into the coast.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions continue through late tonight,
with isolated thunderstorms possible for the next hour or so. MVFR
stratus around 2500 ft is expected to move into the terminal by 10z.

MVFR CIGS are expected to persist through early Thursday afternoon,
but should lift and becomeVFR by 21z. 64

Marine High pressure continues to sit over the NE pac, with
weak gradients over the waters through Friday. As the thermal
low starts to strengthen over norther ca this weekend, we could
see northerly winds ramp up to 20 to 30 kt over the weekend.

Seas remain around 3 to 5 ft through Friday as we remain under
relatively benign conditions. With winds ramping up this weekend,
seas may build up to 5 to 7 ft by late Sunday-early Monday, and
seas may become choppy. -mccoy

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 16 mi42 min WSW 7 G 8.9 58°F 63°F1018.3 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 28 mi84 min W 9.9 G 13 57°F 60°F1017.9 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi42 min WSW 11 G 13 59°F 64°F1018.3 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 40 mi60 min 60°F4 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA26 mi67 minWSW 910.00 miOvercast59°F55°F90%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5SW7S5SW6W9SW8W12SW9SW11SW12SW9SW9SW9W9SW9SW10SW9
1 day agoSW7SW9SW8SW7SW5SW8SW7SW6W4W5W5SW9W9SW9SW11SW11SW11W11SW10SW6SW6W3W3Calm
2 days ago--S5S5SE6S7S4S4S4S3W7SW11SW12SW11SW12SW16SW16SW19SW16S13SW12SW10S11SW9SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Willapa City, Willapa River, Washington
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Willapa City
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Thu -- 02:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:43 AM PDT     1.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:15 AM PDT     7.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:41 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:50 PM PDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:00 PM PDT     9.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.63.721.62.33.44.65.977.57.36.14.52.81.30.71.42.94.56.27.899.48.9

Tide / Current Tables for South Bend, Willapa River, Willapa Bay, Washington
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South Bend
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:05 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:27 AM PDT     2.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM PDT     8.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:35 PM PDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:42 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:24 PM PDT     9.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.43.52.22.33.34.55.877.887.36.14.52.71.41.32.44.15.87.69.19.99.88.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.