Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 7:25 PM   Moonset 4:58 AM

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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 222 Am Pdt Tue Apr 23 2024
combined seas 4 to 6 ft. Bar conditions light. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 500 am Tuesday, 515 pm Tuesday, and 500 am Wednesday. The Wednesday morning ebb will be strong.

PZZ100 222 Am Pdt Tue Apr 23 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - Surface high pressure well offshore along with a thermal trough to the south. A front is slated to reach the area Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by another system on Thursday.

FXUS66 KPQR 230952 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 252 AM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
Transient ridging will keep conditions warm and dry through Tuesday with mostly sunny skies. A weak cool front brushes southwest WA and the north OR coast on Wednesday, however precip chances are low with trace amounts of rain. Transitioning to a cool and wet weather pattern on Thursday as an upper level trough settles over the area. This trough will then maintain cool and showery conditions through the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM
Tuesday through Wednesday Night...Warm and dry with a mix of sun and high clouds on Tuesday as a brief period of low-level offshore flow develops. High clouds will be more prevalent during the morning hours. Expect today will also be the warmest day over the next week with widespread high temps in the low to mid 70s, except lower 60s at the coast. Confidence is high, as the probability for temps at or above 70 degrees is 70-95% according to the NBM and HRRR (highest chance across the Portland/Vancouver metro).

Low-level flow is set to turn back onshore Tuesday evening. Models and their ensembles suggest onshore flow will then persist over the next week. With the transition to onshore flow, a series of Pacific fronts are expected to move inland and bring widespread rain to western WA/OR. However, Wednesday is shaping up to be mainly dry as the first front looks to hold off until Thursday. That being said, cannot completely rule out a few light showers across southwest WA and the north OR coast on Wednesday as a very weak/transient upper level shortwave moves through the area. This is when the aforementioned areas have a 20-40% chance of showers. Meanwhile, the rest of the forecast area has under a 5-10% chance. Excess cloud cover should keep high temps mainly in the 60s, around 5-10 degrees cooler than Tuesday. Wednesday night looks mild with a light south wind ahead of an incoming front; this front is set to bring widespread rain to the area on Thursday. This system is discussed below in the long term discussion. -TK

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...On Thursday, a secondary more potent shortwave trough will be approaching the coastal waters.
Meanwhile, a surface low near Vancouver Island will be deepen slightly with a central pressure falling to around 1008mb. A more potent cold front will be associated with this system and will approach northwest Oregon and southwest Washington through Thursday, eventually coming onshore Thursday evening. Rain chances peak near 100% Thursday afternoon/evening, which is also when every single ensemble member from the GEFS/GEPS/EPS show QPF. PoPs remain above 80% into Friday afternoon with PoPs dropping below 50% across the interior valleys Friday night into Saturday. Chances for showers remain in the forecast Saturday night through Monday as additional weak fronts move inland.

There remains some model spread regarding rainfall totals with this system, however ensemble guidance continues to trend slightly wetter each day. The 24 hr probability ending at 5am Friday of 0.25" or greater across the lowlands has increased to around 80-90% across all of southwest WA and northwest OR, except around 95% at the coast and in the mountains. The probability of 0.50" during the same time period across the interior valleys has also increased slightly to 25-50% and 70-95% across the higher terrain. 48 hr probabilities for 0.50" of rain or more ending at 5am Saturday are 50-80% for the Willamette Valley. In general, this system looks like it will bring a good soaking rain to the entire area Thursday through Friday.

Temperatures Thursday through Monday will be on the cooler side due to cloud cover and occasional precipitation. Expect highs in the upper 50s to low 60s across the interior valley and low to mid 50s along the coast. WPC's cluster analysis from 12z Monday showed good agreement amongst models and their ensembles regarding the synoptic scale pattern. All four clusters show some degree of troughing or zonal flow over the Pacific Northwest Thursday through Monday, resulting in a prolonged cool and showery weather pattern. -TK

AVIATION
High pressure will maintain VFR thresholds with dry conditions across most terminals through the entire TAF period.
Expect scattered/broken high clouds over the region today. Most winds will be out of the north/northwest, around 5-10 kt in the Willamette Valley and 8-12 kt along the coast with gusts to 20 kt.
An exception would be KTTD, which will see east winds with gusts to 20-25 kt. After 00z Wed, a cooling and moistening boundary layer along the coast may support the development of low marine stratus. Guidance suggests a 20-40% chance of IFR cigs or lower along the coast after 00z Wed. After 06-09z Wed, a weakening front will approach the region and begin returning IFR/MVFR cigs to the south WA/north OR coast.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
The AWOS at KMMV is still out of commission. As it is not maintained locally by the National Weather Service, there is no estimated time of repair.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR thresholds through the entire TAF period with scattered/broken high clouds. Winds will generally be under 10 kt, easterly in the morning turning northwesterly in the afternoon/evening. -Alviz

MARINE
Observations at buoy 46050 as of 2 AM PDT show northerly winds gusting to 25-30 kt with seas 8-9 ft at 7 seconds. High pressure over the waters today will maintain northerly winds with low-end Small Craft Advisory gusts of 20-25 kt. The bulk of the gusty winds will be south of Cape Falcon and in the outer waters beyond 10 NM through most of the morning.

After 10-11 AM, expect pressure gradients to tighten slightly as a weakening front in the far northeast Pacific moves westward toward the Pacific Northwest. As a result, expect northerly winds to strengthen over the inner waters (Cape Shoalwater to Florence, OR out 10 NM) to around 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this afternoon. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory will be re-issued for the northern inner waters and Columbia River Bar after 11 AM. After 5-8 PM, winds will gradually weaken across all of the waters as pressure gradients loosen, likely ending all Small Craft Advisories around that time.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, high pressure breaks down over the waters and winds will begin to turn more westerly. Expect winds around 5-10 kt across the waters on Wednesday. Seas today and tomorrow will generally remain between 4-6 ft. The next frontal system arrives Thursday, which will return gusty southwesterly winds. Current NBM/LREF guidance shows high confidence (greater than 80% chance) of Small Craft Advisory winds exceeding 21 kt across all waters Thursday. -Alviz

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210-251.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ252-253- 271>273.

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Willapa City
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Tue -- 02:14 AM PDT     10.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:58 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:11 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:15 AM PDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:03 PM PDT     8.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM PDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 08:11 PM PDT     2.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:24 PM PDT     Moonrise
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