Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tokeland, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:37PM Saturday March 25, 2017 6:40 AM PDT (13:40 UTC) Moonrise 5:05AMMoonset 4:00PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 459 am pdt Sat mar 25 2017 combined seas 6 to 8 ft. Bar conditions moderate. The maximum ebb currents will occur around 345 pm this afternoon and 415 am Sunday. PZZ100 459 Am Pdt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A 1020 mb high will develop over the far sw washington coast this.afternoon and this will cause the onshore flow to weaken. The flow will become easterly tonight in response to falling pres over the offshore waters. An occluded front is expected to move across the area Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tokeland, WA
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location: 46.71, -123.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 251037
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
336 am pdt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis An upper level trough along the coast and its associated
onshore flow will keep showers going overnight into Saturday, then
decrease later Saturday and Saturday evening as the upper trough
moves east and the onshore flow decreases. The next front will bring
another good dose of rain and some breezes to the area Sunday, with
snow in the cascades... Mainly mt hood northward. Its associated upper
trough will bring showers to the area Sunday night and Monday with
snow levels near or a little below the cascade passes. The next
system will bring more rain to the area Tuesday and Wednesday of next
week.

Short term (today through Monday)... Radar imagery shows scattered
showers persisting this morning across SW washington and NW oregon,
but with much less coverage than was the case Fri afternoon. Friday
afternoon's convection produced an ef0 tornado, which was caught on a
home security camera and relayed to the public via the media. The
storm had its origins around the west hills of portland, crossed the
columbia river, moved through the downtown vancouver area, through
minnehaha, close to vancouver mall, and through the covington and
orchards areas of northeast vancouver. This storm produced some
damage in the covington and orchards areas around 315 pm that was
consistent with an ef0 tornado. An lsr and sps were issued earlier
about this event.

Today should be considerably less active, as warm advection aloft
will increasingly cap any convection throughout the day. 00z nam/gfs
soundings show a cap strengthening near 10 kft as the day progresses.

Lapse rates below the cap will remain decent, so there should still
be plenty of showers... Just not the deeper/stronger convection we saw
Friday. Given the steep lapse rates below 700 mb and plenty of
low-level moisture, suspect stratocumulus clouds and showers will
fill in this morning with the start of daytime heating. However,
subsidence associated with a transitory shortwave ridge should
eventually bring an end to the showers late this afternoon and
evening.

Satellite imagery continues to show a progressive pattern across the
north pacific, with our next front already crossing 145w. By the time
showers with our current upper trough taper off this evening, high
clouds will likely be increasing in advance of our next frontal
system. Rain will likely begin along the coast by daybreak, then
spread inland rapidly due to the strong pacific jet. This system does
have an atmospheric river stretching back to the west pacific
subtropics, with precipitable water values in excess of 1.50 inch as
far east as 150w. However this moisture plume will become
increasingly stretched and strained as the front approaches the pac
nw, so rainfall totals will probably be fairly modest. Nonetheless,
it will be a significant rain with 0.33-0.50 inch totals likely to be
common in the inland valleys, up to 1 inch along the coast, and 1-2
inches in the higher terrain by the time precip tapers off throughout
the day Monday.

Similar to last Thu night/fri, easterly flow ahead of the frontal
system will likely lock cool air in place over the cascades mt hood
northward as precipitation develops Sunday. This will cause the front
to occlude for the most part as it moves inland, with little time
spent in the warm sector north of mt hood before cold advection
pushes snow levels below the cascade passes Sun night/mon. This
system may warrant a winter weather advisory for snow in the S wa and
possibly N or cascades, as 6-12 inches are certainly possible above
the snow level. Wet snow will likely impact the passes, especially at
night. Given uncertainty in snow levels, will hold off on issuing the
advisory for now and defer to future shifts.

Cool onshore flow will persist into Monday as the upper trough moves
across the pac nw. Unlike yesterday, it appears the coolest air aloft
will move through at night Sun night, with temps warming aloft mon.

This should limit the strength of convection Monday, with just
perfunctory showers expected at this point. Showers should decrease
mon night with the loss of daytime heating and increasing subsidence
as high pressure builds into the region. Temps likely remain a little
below late march normals for the next few days due to our troughy
upper level pattern. Weagle

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows...

(Monday night through Friday)... 12z models remain in fairly good
agreement with regard to the long wave pattern of the upcoming work
week. They show the upper trough from this weekend departing east
becoming positioned over the northern rockies by early Monday
evening. A flat upper ridge crosses the region Tuesday through early
Wednesday before a flat upper trough takes its place Wednesday night.

The trough deepens as it crosses the pacnw Thursday which allows for
a little higher amplitude ridge to build for Friday. Unfortunately
(depending on your preferred weather), this low amplitude upper
pattern does not lend toward any day long dry period for the upcoming
work week. As of today's model runs, best chance may end up being
Friday as the ridge builds, however the GFS is showing a short-wave
riding over the top with rain affecting the northern tier.

The overall cloudy/rainy/snowy sequence will keep temperatures a
little cooler than normal during the day and warmer at night. Snow
levels will stay around 4-5000 feet except for Wednesday and Friday
where they rise to 5-7000 feet. /jbonk

Aviation A showery pattern to continue today, but showers will
be diminishing during the afternoon. Expect mainly dry conditions
tonight into Sun morning. Conditions should be mainlyVFR
through mid- morning, then think CIGS of 2500 to 3500 ft will
form in the late morning as stratocumulus develop with daytime
heating. Any MVFR conditions that do form during the morning will
improve toVFR in the early afternoon and remainVFR through
tonight.

Kpdx and approaches... Occasional showers expected today,
especially during the morning hours. Expect mainlyVFR
conditions. But CIGS of 2500 to 3500 ft likely form during the
mid-to-late morning, so a few hrs of MVFR possible. Then expect
vfr this afternoon and tonight. Pyle

Marine Weak high pres building in today will keep winds fairly
benign over the waters through tonight. Seas remain around 10 ft
this morning, so will allow the small craft advisory for seas to
continue through 5 am. Seas should drop below 10 ft by
sunrise, and will linger around 8 to 9 ft through the rest of
today. Low pres will move toward the b.C. Coast sun, bringing a
strong front through our coastal waters. The fcst models continue
to show a period of solid gale force winds Sun morning and early
afternoon. The main impacts look to be over the outer waters,
but decided to extend the gale watch to include the nearshore
zones as well. Seas will also likely build back into the mid
teens sun, and will be dominated by southerly wind waves and
fresh swell. There will be a lull in the winds Sun night and
mon, but another front is expected to impact the waters on tue
into wed. There is some model disagreement with the track and
timing on this system, but it looks likely that it will result in
some small craft advisory winds. A longer period westerly swell
is modeled to arrive Mon night into tue, which would push seas
back above 10 ft. The additional wind wave energy from the
frontal system could bring seas back into the mid teens. Pyle

Pqr watches/warnings/advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Gale watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am pdt early
this morning for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 6 am
pdt early this morning.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 1 pm
this afternoon to 6 pm pdt this evening.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 0 mi41 min N 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 49°F1019.1 hPa (+0.7)
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 15 mi65 min WNW 14 G 18 43°F 49°F1018.5 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 18 mi49 min 49°F11 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 35 mi41 min 46°F10 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 36 mi41 min SE 5.1 G 7 43°F 46°F1019.5 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA19 mi48 minSW 47.00 miOvercast43°F42°F97%1019 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE9E9E8E9NE10E11E15E13E10E12E12E6NE11E11E10NE11E11E12E11E8NE8NE6E5SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Toke Point, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Toke Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:10 AM PDT     7.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:59 AM PDT     2.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:04 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:55 AM PDT     8.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:00 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:28 PM PDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.87.66.75.44.132.534.25.77.28.38.78.16.853.11.40.40.41.43.25.16.9

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:18 AM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:31 AM PDT     -2.41 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:22 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:28 AM PDT     1.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:11 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:44 PM PDT     -3.19 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:00 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:51 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:36 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:10 PM PDT     2.25 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.4-0.9-1.8-2.3-2.3-1.6-0.40.61.41.71.71.30.3-1.2-2.4-3-3.2-2.5-1.20.21.322.22.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.