Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tokeland, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 9:02PM Monday May 29, 2017 12:00 PM PDT (19:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:47AMMoonset 11:48PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 900 am pdt Mon may 29 2017 combined seas 2 to 4 ft. Bar conditions light. The next maximum ebb current will occur around 845 pm tonight followed by a strong maximum ebb current around 845 am Tuesday morning. PZZ100 900 Am Pdt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A surface ridge over the offshore waters today combined with a surface trough over eastern wa will maintain moderate to strong onshore flow through Tuesday night. The ridge will shift over the wa coast Tuesday evening as a weakening cold front approaches the region. The weak surface ridge will shift over the western wa interior Wednesday while the approaching front eventually dissipates over the coastal waters Wednesday night and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tokeland, WA
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location: 46.71, -123.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 291615
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
915 am pdt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis Cooler for Monday, with a lot more in way of low clouds
in the morning into early afternoon. Approaching low pressure from
the west will bring increasing southerly flow aloft. This will
result in threat of late afternoon early evening thunderstorms over
the central oregon cascades today. The thunder threat spreads
further north Tuesday. Otherwise, back to typical late may early
june weather, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and near seasonable
temperatures.

Short term Today through Wednesday night... Marine clouds filled
in the western valleys pretty solidly overnight, with 12z sle
sounding indicating the marine layer up to about 3k ft. With the
deep marine layer in place, and a continuation of onshore flow today
with the termal induced trough east of the cascades, clouds will not
be in any hurry to burn off today. Breakout program suggest a
breakup of valley clouds around midday to early afternoon. Along the
coast models suggest clouds may linger through most of the day. Will
reduce afternoon high temps a few more degrees given the depth of
the marine layer and likelihood of clouds lasting past noon. Water
vapor pictures showed a low cutoff off the north ca coast this
morning, moving slowly east. This feature would seem likely to cut
off the northward spread of moisture and instability past SW or
central or today. Model soundings indicate a warm layer in mid
levels under 700 mb that should also act to inhibit low level based
convection today. Will limit any mention of thunderstorms to areas
generally south of santiam pass today, and also indicate a more
limited area with the slight chance for this evening.

Remainder of short term discussion unchanged... Later this evening
and overnight, models continue to show some form of light shower
activity across the region. Confidence is very low for precise
location thus have broadbrushed the threat. Amounts should remain
rather light, however.

For Tuesday, models are in much better agreement regarding the shape
and strength of the short-wave trough approaching the area. The
trough axis passes overhead Tuesday afternoon with the colder air
aloft holding off until after dark. This will greatly reduce the
potential for thunderstorms across the area and have reduced the
threat to the cascades. Even then, do not have strong feelings they
will develop west of the cascade crest. Best chance will be Tuesday
afternoon but feel most activity will develop over the east slopes
late Tuesday afternoon and evening leaving just modest shower
activity on the west side.

The longer wave upper trough will split apart Wednesday with another
segment of energy crossing south of the region and into northern
california with the primary low staying well northwest. This could
leave Wednesday largely dry as we sit in between these two segments.

There may be enough left of a trailing cold (cool?) front to bring
light rain Wednesday night, but it is already showing signs of
splitting apart on models which usually leads to little or no precip
in reality. Jbonk

Long term (Thursday through Sunday) no changes. Bulk of
the previous discussion follows. Additional shortwaves will move
through the area Thursday and Friday which will increase shower
chances. The forecast becomes a lot more uncertain towards next
weekend as the ECMWF tries to cut off an upper low overhead while
the GFS strengthens a ridge into the area. Went with a consensus
blend today and will work to add more details this week as things
become more clear. Bentley

Aviation Mix of mostly low MVFR ifr CIGS across the area. With
tops around 2500-3500 feet, expect CIGS to burn off north to
south between 19z-21z today inland forVFR conditions through the
rest of the afternoon and this evening. CIGS along the coast
will likely persist through the day today, lifting to MVFR this
afternoon, then lowering back to ifr lifr tonight. Expect another
surge of marine stratus inland overnight tonight, perhaps a
couple hours earlier than last night due to stratus persisting
along the coast.

Kpdx and approaches... CIGS around 1000-1500 ft this morning will
continue to slowly lift but keep MVFR CIGS until stratus burns
off around 19z-20z. After that, expectVFR conditions through
tonight, with high ifr CIGS returning Tuesday morning around
08z-10z. -mccoy

Marine No changes. Previous discussion follows...

quiet conditions continue with winds below 20 kt through at
least the middle of this week and likely longer. Winds turn late
Tuesday from out of the northwest to out of the southwest then
south. Seas around 4 ft and will continue through at least the
middle of the week.

Next chance for winds above 20 kt will be next weekend as a
broad upper-level ridge builds over the NE pacific, setting up a
summer-like gusty northerly wind pattern over our waters.

Bowen mccoy

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 0 mi42 min NW 5.1 G 6 53°F 56°F1018.3 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 15 mi84 min NW 5.1 G 6 52°F 55°F1018.6 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 18 mi38 min 53°F3 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 35 mi60 min 57°F3 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 36 mi42 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 53°F 60°F1017.6 hPa
46099 37 mi190 min NNW 5.8 53°F 55°F1018.5 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 48 mi70 min N 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 54°F3 ft1018.7 hPa (-0.7)50°F

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA19 mi67 minWSW 77.00 miOvercast54°F51°F90%1018.5 hPa

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Last 24hrSW10SW12W10SW12SW12W11W9SW7W10W6W6W8W5W4W5W6W4W3W4NW5W3W4SW7SW5
1 day agoSW12W12SW14SW13SW14SW12SW12SW10SW10SW9SW7SW8SW6W5SW6W7SW5SW4SW4SW5CalmS4S6S10
2 days agoSW9W10W10SW13SW14SW16SW12SW13SW8W3CalmW3CalmSW4CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW7SW8SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Toke Point, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Toke Point
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Mon -- 12:02 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:54 AM PDT     9.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:47 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:50 AM PDT     -2.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM PDT     7.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:59 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:01 PM PDT     2.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.26.17.99.29.68.97.24.92.40-1.6-2.1-1.20.62.95.16.97.87.875.64.232.5

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
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Mon -- 12:03 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:11 AM PDT     2.14 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:14 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:55 AM PDT     -4.09 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:47 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:17 AM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:34 PM PDT     2.73 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:44 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:43 PM PDT     -2.41 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:26 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.121.40.4-1.3-2.9-3.8-4.1-3.6-2.3-0.51.12.22.72.72.21.1-0.4-1.6-2.3-2.4-1.8-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.