Sunday, April23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tokeland, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:17PM Sunday April 23, 2017 12:50 PM PDT (19:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:05AMMoonset 3:59PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 900 am pdt Sun apr 23 2017 combined seas 7 to 9 ft today and tonight. Bar conditions moderate. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 315 pm this afternoon...and 345 am Monday morning. PZZ100 900 Am Pdt Sun Apr 23 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A weak surface trough will move ne across the area today. The associated upper level trough will bring areas of rain. A 1003 mb surface low offshore will approach the region tonight then slow and weaken near the north oregon coast Monday morning. A weak surface ridge will increase onshore flow Monday evening. An occluded front will approach the coast Tuesday then move inland Tuesday evening. Onshore flow will develop behind the front Tuesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tokeland, WA
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location: 46.71, -123.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 231736
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
1036 am pdt Sun apr 23 2017

Synopsis An upper level trough will swing through the pacific
northwest today and early this evening for some showers, with snow
in the cascades. The first in a series of systems riding a strong
pacific jet stream will spread increasing rain and cascade snow
across the forecast area tonight and Monday, with breezy conditions
as well. This will be followed by another decent system for more
rain and cascade snow and breezy conditions Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Moist onshore flow will continue the threat of showers
Wednesday and Thursday and into Friday before some drying is
expected early next weekend.

Short term Today through Tuesday... National weather service
doppler radar shows increasing showers this morning spreading in from
the coast, especially north, which should eventually affect most of
the forecast area later today into early this evening. Snow levels
have lowered since Saturday, and will be close to the cascade
passes, though any significant accumulations will be at higher
elevations but below snow advisory criteria today.

A rather strong late april pacific jet stream will usher into
southwest washington and northwest oregon the first in a series of
decent systems tonight into Monday. This system is approaching 130w
late this morning, and will spread rain and cascade snow into our
forecast area beginning later this evening continuing overnight
tonight and through Monday morning. The associated cold front will
move through in the afternoon on Monday, followed by decent showers
into Monday evening. Precipitation amounts still look like 1-2 inches
in the cascades, coast range, and the coast, with 0.5-0.75 inch in
the valleys. Snow levels will hover around the cascade passes, with
snow totals in the cascades tonight and Monday 6 to 12 inches except
lesser amounts near the passes due to initially warm roads that will
take some time to cool.

The models continue to show an associated surface low that will move
onshore somewhere along the north oregon coast around midday Monday
and inland close to the columbia river. Expect brisk south winds to
the south of the low center track, with gusts to 40 or 45 mph near
the coast and perhaps 30 to 35 mph inland. With trees leafing out
and the very wet ground we have, we will have to see if this might
be enough for some tree damage and possibly need a wind advisory
inland.

Showers ease up Monday night before the next system arrives during
the day Tuesday. Snow levels may rise a bit with the Tuesday system,
rising above pass levels during the day. But look for increasing rain
again. The track of the associated surface low is farther north, but
we should see some breezy south winds again along the coast and
inland Tuesday afternoon and evening. Tolleson

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows...

Tuesday night through Saturday... An occluded front is forecast to
move through southwest washington and northwest oregon Tuesday night
for more rain and higher elevation snow. Westerly flow will keep
showers going across the area Wednesday into Friday. Snow levels will
tend to hover around the cascade passes. The models vary a bit with
the upcoming weekend have some low pops at time in the early part of
the weekend due to the uncertainty. Tolleson

Aviation Rain has spread back in across the area, and we have a
mix ofVFR and MVFR conditions. Rain has generally brought the cigs
down to around 3000 to 4000 feet, so we will probably continue to see
a mix ofVFR and MVFR conditions through the afternoon and evening as
rain continues. A stronger front approaches the coast later tonight,
which will bring winds up along oregon's central coast, impacting
konp through early Monday. Inland areas could see gusty winds sle
southward with this system as well Monday morning.

Kpdx and approaches... PredominantlyVFR today and tonight, with cigs
and/or vis occasionally dropping to MVFR as showers pass over the
terminal. CIGS should generally hover around 3000-5000 feet, so
approaches will be affected on and off through the next 24 hours.

-mccoy

Marine A weak front is moving across the waters this morning. With
the system this morning, for the most part winds will stay below 20
kt, but can't rule out a few gusts up to 23 kt. Winds over the waters
south of cascade head will increase this afternoon as our next,
stronger system approaches. The track of this low has it making
landfall now between tillamook and cascade head, meaning the stronger
winds with this system will generally be south of cascade head. There
is still some uncertainty with how strong the winds will get with
this system south of cascade head, but models are starting to lean
toward the stronger solution suggesting low-end gales late Sunday
night into early Monday morning. Will evaluate this more with the
afternoon package. Beyond Monday there is another system on Tuesday
that could bring high-end small craft advisory or low-end gales
mid-day Tuesday, and an active pattern continues through the end of
the week. We may get a break, however, going into next weekend.

Models appear to be about 1-1.5 ft low forecasting the seas over the
waters, so issued a small craft advisory for hazardous seas this
morning. Seas are generally running around 9 to 10 ft. With the
addition of winds gusting to 15-20 kt, anticipate that seas will
continue to hover around 9 to 10 ft through midday today. This
evening with the approach of the low and the lull in the winds around
the center of the circulation over the waters north of cascade head,
expect the seas north of this point to come down to around 9 ft,
while the seas south of cascade head under windy conditions will
build up to 10 to 12 ft. Seas will start to come back down Monday
afternoon as this system moves inland. Seas generally will stay
around 7 to 9 ft through Tuesday, coming back up Tuesday night as a
decent fetch develops with a low pressure system that moves toward
the coast of british columbia. This fetch looks weaker than it did
yesterday, so probably will only see seas get up into the lower teens
on Wednesday. Seas come back down below 10 ft by Thursday afternoon,
and look to continue to fall going into next weekend. -mccoy

Pqr watches/warnings/advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds from 11 pm this evening to 2 pm
pdt Monday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
cascade head or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 11 pm pdt this
evening for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
cascade head or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 pm
pdt Monday for coastal waters from cascade head or to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 pm pdt Monday
for coastal waters from cascade head or to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 1 pm
this afternoon to 6 pm pdt this evening.

This discussion is for northwest oregon and southwest washington
from the cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 0 mi51 min SSW 12 G 18 50°F 53°F1010.8 hPa (+0.0)
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 15 mi75 min SSW 13 G 20 49°F 52°F1010.3 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 18 mi29 min 52°F7 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 35 mi51 min 52°F8 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 36 mi51 min SSW 8.9 G 15 50°F 51°F1011.3 hPa (+0.3)
46099 37 mi121 min SSW 12 49°F 51°F1008.9 hPa

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA19 mi58 minSSE 114.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F48°F92%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E6S21
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S16S13S11S14S9S8S6SW7CalmE5E5NE6NE7E6E7NE9E10SE10
1 day agoE18NE14NE16
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E13NE11NE11NE9NE11NE9NE9NE14NE13NE11E9E11E12E9SE10S7E7NE6E7
2 days ago--SW15SW13SW16SW15SW11SW10SW6S5S6S6S5CalmNE3NE4E4NE5NE4NE4NE6NE6E10E9E12

Tide / Current Tables for Toke Point, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Toke Point
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Sun -- 05:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:33 AM PDT     1.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:30 AM PDT     7.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:58 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:46 PM PDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.975.74.12.71.81.72.645.56.97.87.86.95.43.72.10.90.71.434.96.88.2

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:56 AM PDT     -2.78 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:06 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:59 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:02 AM PDT     1.75 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:47 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:10 PM PDT     -2.87 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:59 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:06 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:14 PM PDT     2.28 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-1.8-2.5-2.8-2.3-1.2011.61.81.61-0.3-1.6-2.5-2.9-2.6-1.6-0.21.11.92.32.21.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.