Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tokeland, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 9:15PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 8:35 PM PDT (03:35 UTC) Moonrise 11:24AMMoonset 12:10AM Illumination 42% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 824 pm pdt Tue jun 19 2018 combined seas 3 to 5 feet. Bar conditions light. The maximum ebb currents will occur around 1045 pm tonight and 11 am Wednesday. PZZ100 824 Pm Pdt Tue Jun 19 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Weak onshore flow tonight will increase and become moderate to strong late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. There is a threat of gale force winds over the eastern two thirds of the strait of juan de fuca late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Onshore flow will remain strong Thursday then slowly relax on Friday. Light onshore flow is expected next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tokeland, WA
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location: 46.71, -123.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 192229 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
328 pm pdt Tue jun 19 2018

Synopsis an upper level disturbance will approach from the
southwest Wednesday, with increasing threat of showers and strong
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially over the
cascades and foothills. A chance of thunderstorms will extend into
the north part of the willamette valley. Some thunderstorms will
contain heavy rain hail and strong gusts winds. Strong onshore flow
will follow this system into western oregon Wednesday afternoon and
night with marine clouds and much cooler weather on Thursday.

Ridging Friday result in dryer and warmer conditions through the end
of the week.

Short term Tonight through Friday... Clear skies this afternoon
across much of northwest oregon and southwest washington. There is
some instability over the cascades with models showing the
potentially most unstable are over the south washington cascades
this evening. Will continue a chance of thundershowers in that area
for the evening.

Strong convection is becoming likely on Wednesday afternoon and
night. Water vapor imagery shows a short wave off the northern
california coast moving toward oregon. GFS nam ecwmf are good
agreement with the path and structure of this short wave low which
passes over western oregon tomorrow afternoon. This is a classic
pattern for severe weather over western oregon... With the cascades,
foothills and adgecent areas being the primary focus. NAM has
precipitable water of 1.3 inches over cascades which is way above
normal for this time of year. GFS and NAM both put out impressive
qpf with and it will be possible to get over 1 inch amounts in
isolated heavy downpours. NAM bufr soundings for the pdx show cape
over 2500j kg and lis of -8 with lots of CAPE in the hail growth
zone.

There is also a really good chance that there won't be any clouds
around inland to inhibit heating during the first half of the day.

With southerly flow ahead of the system temperatures should warm
into the 80s and lower 90s in the valleys. I expect that convection
will develop over the lane county cascades and foothills
first... Shortly after noon, then spread quickly north to the north
oregon cascades foothills, then south washington cascades foothills
during the late afternoon. Models haven't put much precipitation or
convection into the willamette valley but with the good surface
heating and very unstable conditions as the trough passes during the
later half of the afternoon surface based convection is a good
possibility over the northern willamette valley and into extreme
southwest washington and possibly even the north oregon coast range.

There is a potential for severe thunderstorms and the storm
prediction center has the foothills and cascades at a marginal risk
(wind gusts greater than 60 mph and or hail 1 inch or greater). It
appears that hail would be the most likely threat, but wind could
not be ruled out as a factor if outflow develops.

Thunderstorms will contain frequent lightning but with the heavy
rain and already moist fuels there will be minimal threat of fire
starts that could go anywhere. In fact there is more of a threat of
flash flooding, especially in any of last summers burn areas such as
potato hill and eagle creek and we will have to take a closer look
at that as the system moves in tomorrow.

Models show cool marine are flooding in from the southwest into the
south willamette valley Wednesday afternoon which will cut off any
threat of thunderstorms there. That push will move north and spread
across western oregon and southwest washington during the evening.

The shortwave moves out pretty quickly overnight into Thursday
morning. Cool marine air and stratus will keep temperatures down
almost 20 degrees on Thursday for quite a contrast to Wednesday.

Models agree that ridging will develop Friday for warmer conditions.

Schneider

Long term Friday night through Tuesday. Fairly good agreement in
the model guidance for the start of the long term period. Heights
will rise as a shortwave ridge moves across the area with any
residual showers coming to an end Friday night (mostly lingering
north of the columbia river in the terrain of the willapa hills and
south washington cascades). This will push temperatures into the mid
to upper 70s Saturday across the interior and a little warmer
Sunday. However, a weak front will push into the coastal water and
approach the coast on Sunday. For most of the area, the primary
impact will be some increasing clouds, but some light rain or
drizzle along the coast cannot be ruled out. The parent low will
trek into north-central b.C. Early next week, but models begin to
differ considerably in terms of the depth of the trough. For now,
have increased cloud cover and trended temperatures back toward
seasonal normals for the start of next week, most closely following
a blend of models due to the timing differences, and holding off on
any mention of pops across the forecast area for now. cullen

Aviation Vfr conditions across the forecast area under mostly
clear skies this afternoon and evening. Some cumulus build-ups
will continue along and near the cascade crest. Expect that ifr
marine stratus pushes onshore again this evening, likely between
03z and 06z. Not expecting any lower CIGS to impact interior taf
sites tonight, but there is a small chance for development if
residual clouds build back west from the cascades foothills late
tonight. Looking ahead, there is some potential for thunderstorm
development Wednesday afternoon, with the best chances in the
cascades and foothills, possibly back into the northern
willamette valley.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR expected through at least Wednesday
morning. However, some clouds will develop in the foothills
overnight and may build east toward the terminal aft 12z.

Thunderstorms expected to develop late Wednesday afternoon to
the east of the terminal in the cascades foothills, and cannot
rule out a storm making it to or near the terminal area. Cullen

Marine A rather weak surface pressure gradient across the
coastal waters through tonight, maintaining relatively light
winds. High pressure over the eastern pacific again strengthens
on Wednesday. A weak disturbance will turn winds more westerly
later in the week, but speeds will remain below advisory
criteria. Stronger high pressure returns to the waters late
Thursday night through the weekend, with a thermal low pressure
building north up the northern california and southern oregon
coastline. Expect gusty northerly winds to increase late in the
weekend, with advisory winds possible across the coastal waters
on Sunday. Seas will remain around 4 to 6 feet through the end of
the week. As the northerly winds increase, expect seas to become
somewhat steep and build to 7 to 8 feet by the end of the
weekend. Cullen
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 0 mi54 min WNW 6 G 7 62°F 63°F1016.9 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 15 mi60 min NW 7 G 8.9 58°F 60°F1017.2 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 35 mi36 min 61°F4 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 36 mi48 min WSW 8 G 9.9 65°F 64°F1016.1 hPa
46099 37 mi106 min NNW 7.8 58°F 62°F1016.6 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 48 mi46 min N 12 G 14 60°F 62°F4 ft1016.4 hPa (-1.4)56°F

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA19 mi43 minWSW 68.00 miFair62°F57°F84%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10S11SW9SW9SW7SW9SW8SW7SW5SW8SW7SW6W4W5W5SW9W9SW9SW11SW11SW11W11SW10SW6
1 day agoSW8SW8S5S7S7S5S5SE6S7S4S4S4S3W7SW11SW12SW11SW12SW16SW16SW19SW16S13SW12
2 days agoSW6W3E4NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4E6E7NE4S4SW11W12SW12
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for Toke Point, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Toke Point
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Tue -- 12:08 AM PDT     2.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:10 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:53 AM PDT     7.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:24 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:34 PM PDT     -0.82 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 PM PDT     8.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.32.63.75.16.57.57.87.364.12.20.4-0.6-0.70.21.93.95.87.387.86.95.54

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:38 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:11 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:17 AM PDT     1.49 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:11 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:49 AM PDT     -3.17 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:24 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:00 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:29 PM PDT     2.38 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:31 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:14 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:46 PM PDT     -2.56 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.80.41.11.51.41.10.2-1.1-2.3-3-3.2-2.7-1.5-01.222.32.31.90.8-0.7-1.7-2.4-2.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.