Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Superior, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:27PM Thursday March 23, 2017 11:18 AM CDT (16:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:42AMMoonset 1:34PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ145 203 Am Cst Tue Mar 7 2017
.an area of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 201 am cst...doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms... Capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located 10 nm west of port wing safe harbor...moving north at 40 knots. Locations impacted include... Castle danger...brule point...and twin points safe harbor. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect wind gusts up to 33 knots...locally higher waves...cloud to water lightning strikes...small hail...and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4704 9169 4716 9147 4720 9133 4673 9154 4672 9174
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ145 Expires:201703070830;;132282 FZUS73 KDLH 070803 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 203 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017 LSZ143>145-162-070830-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Superior, WI
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location: 46.71, -92.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 231138
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
638 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 438 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017
a very complicated forecast for the next 24 hours, with some
sensitive fluctuations that will have a very large impact on the
forecast area, but that's for tonight. As of early this morning,
yesterday's ridge of high pressure has slid to the eastern great
lakes region, with a developing surface low over eastern colorado
this morning, and an inverted trough extending north up into
manitoba and saskatchewan where a weak low was centered. A lobe of
mid level moisture over eastern nebraska and kansas this morning
is going to surge north today on a wave of isentropic lift, moving
into the forecast area this afternoon, and remaining over
northern minnesota and wisconsin through tonight before narrowing
and shifting back south again on Friday. Rain and even a little
embedded thunder is expected to spread into the forecast area from
the south this afternoon. The initial wave of snow/sleet from a
leading wave is moving across the area early this morning and
should move out of the area to the east fairly early this morning,
and expect a period of drier conditions for at least a few hours
before the next wave moving in from the south gets here. A fairly
major complicating factor are the temperature profiles associated
with this system. The warm air advection should bring our mid
level temperatures above freezing, and while we should warm above
freezing during the day today, tonight they are going to dip to
near or just below freezing for a large portion of the area. This
is going to produce a mixture of freezing rain, sleet and rain to
a fairly large portion of the area overnight tonight, and could
make for some significant travel problems for the Friday morning
commute. However, these temperature profiles are very dependent on
getting the temperatures at the surface and aloft right, and with
tonight's min temperature guidance ranging from the low to mid
30s – the canadian- on the warm end, to the 20s – bias
corrected nam12 - on the cold end, this puzzle is not making
itself easy this morning. For now, I have decided to go with a
winter weather advisory for portions of northwest wisconsin,
knowing that it may need to be expanded to include portions of the
north shore as well, or dropped entirely depending on temperature
trends in the next 18 hours. It seemed to better to get the
notification of the potential out now rather than wait.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)
issued at 438 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017
while a vertically stacked upper/surface low meanders through the
southern plains Friday night, high pressure will be drifting through
northwest ontario. An upper short wave trof with weakening area of
vorticity moves over western lake superior. This will be just enough
lift to continue to mention some mixed precipitation over much of
pine county and northwest wisconsin. Dry elsewhere due to the
surface ridge axis from the aforementioned high extending through
the area. On Saturday, upper level and surface ridging covers the
region. However, only the GFS is trying to back build some
precipitation into northwest wisconsin as it has an embedded impulse
lifting into this area. Cannot rule it out completely and have small
pops for mixed ptypes in the early morning, then rain by mid morning
into the afternoon. The GFS continues to be the only model with
precipitation over the forecast area Saturday night, but is then
joined by the gem. The nam/ecmwf are dry. Used a blend for
ptypes/pops. The vertically stacked system departs Sunday, which
allows for the next pair of upper waves to affect the region through
Monday. Embedded impulses will cross the area between and with these
features, and will use a blended approach to pops/ptypes to resolve
differences in models and their thermal profiles. A hudson bay high
sets up for Monday night through Wednesday which will keep the
region dry. The only model bringing in any precipitation is once
again the GFS on Wednesday afternoon. Will have a small pop to
account for this option. Temps will be above normal.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 637 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017
vfr at the start of the forecast. From 16z to 21z, a gradual
spread of MVFR CIGS is expected ahead of an area of light rain
that is forecast to overspread the terminals. There is a remote
chance of some thunderstorms affecting dlh/brd/hyr around 00z.

However, confidence is low and have left out for now. There is
also a small window for some light freezing rain to affect hyr
from 03z to 05z with ifr cigs. Ifr CIGS will eventually affect all
terminals but inl from 04z to the end of the forecast.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Dlh 37 31 43 26 / 70 80 20 10
inl 43 29 40 23 / 50 50 0 0
brd 40 32 47 28 / 70 70 20 10
hyr 39 33 45 29 / 60 80 60 20
asx 40 32 43 28 / 60 80 30 20

Dlh watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory from 8 pm this evening to 9 am cdt
Friday for wiz002>004-008-009.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Le
long term... Gsf
aviation... Gsf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 6 mi48 min S 1.9 G 4.1 36°F 26°F
PKBW3 7 mi138 min ENE 1 32°F 1021 hPa (-3.0)28°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI 34 mi38 min S 7 G 14 35°F 1019.3 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 55 mi38 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 32°F 1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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NE5
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G12
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G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN2 mi24 minN 010.00 miOvercast37°F26°F65%1019 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi23 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast36°F25°F65%1018.6 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN13 mi23 minS 910.00 miOvercast33°F25°F72%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNE10E8NE8NE8NE4NE12E13NE10CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6
1 day agoCalmNW8NW4N9N3
G14
NW12NW9
G14
NW3N10
G15
N10
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N9N9N11
G14
N13N13NE10
G15
NE7NE12
G17
NE11CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW13W10CalmCalmW9CalmW17
G22
W12NW17
G24
NW20
G25
NW12
G23
NW16NW9NW11NW14
G21
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G17
NW13
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.