Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 3:53 PM   Moonset 4:06 AM

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LSZ145 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 535 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Duluth mn to port wing wi - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9081 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9151 4686 9121 4708 9107 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2234z 263deg 40kt 4703 9088 4691 9103 4677 9123

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 200541 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1241 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers will persist through this evening, then taper to flurries overnight. Occasional visibilities less than 1 mile are possible in the heaviest snow showers, but accumulations should be very light.

- Elevated fire weather concerns are expected this weekend due to low minimum relative humidity and breezy northwest winds.

- A spring weather system will bring mainly rain but possibly some light snow late Monday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

This afternoon through Sunday:

Scattered snow showers will persist mainly through the evening, though there may be just enough moisture and low-level mixing to keep flurries possible through the night. The snow shower intensity has not been quite as high as was originally anticipated so far this afternoon, and it seems like this is largely due to widespread cloud cover that could be tampering low-level lapse rates and instability. There is a pocket of mixed clearing and more intense snow showers over northwest Minnesota and heading east, and that combined with model consensus suggest that we may see a brief reinvigoration of snow showers for a few hours this afternoon until around sunset.
During this time, briefly reduced visibilities as low as ~1/2 mile will be possible. Any snow accumulations are expected to be very minor, and in most cases, should not accumulate on roadways.

Much drier air will work its way into the region from the northwest gradually tonight, leading to a cessation of any lingering snow showers or flurries by Saturday morning and clearing skies. Mostly sunny skies are expected Saturday afternoon with the exception of perhaps a few pockets of cumulus. Winds will remain on the breezy side from the northwest, gusting to around 20 to 25 mph. With the dry air moving in, we will move back into the threat for some elevated fire weather conditions. Min RH values are expected to fall into the 25-30% range for most of the region, but lowest mainly in east-central Minnesota. Fortunately, the threat for strong winds has been lessening slightly.

An even drier day is expected on Sunday as a ridge axis moves overhead. More widespread min RH values falling to 20-30% are expected. Breezy northwest winds are again expected, but a bit less strong than Saturday. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible with the low min RH values.
With warm air advection developing, temperatures are expected to warm up into the 50s across the region. Winds will become light and transition to southerly Sunday night out ahead of an approaching low pressure system.

Monday through Friday:

A dynamic spring system will be approaching the area for Monday. The system looks to come down from Canada impacting the region with a mix of rain and snow. This system per the global models has quite a bit of cold air coming with it as well. The geopotential height anomalies are showing a consistent signal of this cold air advection starting Monday night and lasting into early Wednesday morning. However, some differences are noted in the global models with the GFS showing a much more potent (read vigorous) low-pressure system coming out of Saskatchewan and the Dakotas. The GFS also shows plenty of forcing at the 700mb level. However, the Euro global model shows a much weaker system resulting in less forcing. In addition, the Euro has the low- pressure system staying further north into Canada. A third global model, the ICON, shows a solution between the two models with the low staying right along the Canadian border and traveling towards the U.P of Michigan.

Winds will pick up during this period as the forecast area gets caught between a high pressure off to the east and the incoming low. This tight pressure gradient will result in some strong southerly winds helping to bring in the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This is shown well with precipitable water values between .60” and .75”. and moderate integrated vapor transport showing moisture transport into southern Minnesota. The only question is where will this low track? If it tracks more south then snow will be the more dominant precip type. In fact some models are hinting at some light accumulations across the Arrowhead of Minnesota due to the cold air being pulled down on the backside of the system. Though a more northerly track would result in less cold air and more of a plain rain setup.

Looking at temperatures, 50s look to be common area-wide before the system approaches with a drop in temperatures due to that cold air advection on the backside of the low. This system certainly bears watching as all the main ingredients for snowfall are there, namely strong forcing, and sub-freezing air wrapping into the system. However, things can and likely will change, and any snowfall accumulations are dependent upon the low track and if snow falls at night versus the day given the sun angle even through the clouds. After this system departs the area, high pressure briefly settles in overhead with our next system approaching the area Friday along with chances for more rain which is certainly welcome news to the ongoing drought situation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Isolated to scattered light snow showers continue across parts of Northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight, becoming more flurries and ending from west to east mid to late Saturday morning. Have a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings, with visibility mainly remaining above 6SM with any of the showers. Have kept VCSH in TAFs for these showers given low predictability/coverage of the showers. Expect ceilings to lower to more widespread MVFR overnight, improving back to VFR mid to late morning from northwest to southeast and turning SCT/FEW this afternoon.

Northwest winds continue throughout the TAF period, with a few gusts up to 25 knots under the snow showers. Otherwise, expect gusts to primarily be 16-22 knots today before weakening this evening.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Gusty west winds abound across the nearshore waters this afternoon with gusts from 25-30 kt and even approaching 35 kt at Devil's Island. We do expect that wind gusts will gradually decrease this afternoon and evening, so we are not planning to issue any Gale Warnings. Overall, winds have been trending slightly downward Saturday into Sunday, and there may be a period where wind gusts hover around or just under 20 kt Saturday into Saturday night. We currently have Small Craft Advisories going through Sunday, when we expect another brief uptick in winds. However, it may be possible to allow Small Craft Advisories to expire for a period Saturday afternoon and night if the winds continue to trend downward. We will continue to re-assess this in the next forecast updates. Higher wave heights to around 4 ft are generally expected to remain offshore with the westerly winds, except that they will affect the Outer Apostle Islands periodically. Winds become light and variable Sunday night, becoming southerly by Monday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ121.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ140>148-150.

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