Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Superior, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 6:07PM Monday October 23, 2017 7:04 PM CDT (00:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:13AMMoonset 7:47PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ145 816 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 24 2017
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 816 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm northwest of larsmont...to 8 nm southeast of superior harbor...moving northeast at 50 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island...split rock bay...raspberry island lighthouse... Castle danger...sand island...sugar loaf cove...tofte safe harbor... Twin points safe harbor...tofte...mouth of the little marais river... Beaver bay...mouth of the cross river...port wing safe harbor...brule point...herbster...apostle islands sea caves...larsmont...split rock lighthouse...red cliff...and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4689 9196 4715 9149 4754 9094 4762 9080 4687 9066 4682 9086 4688 9080 4693 9086 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9150 4666 9192
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ145 Expires:201709250215;;885660 FZUS73 KDLH 250116 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 816 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017 LSZ141>147-162-250215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Superior, WI
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location: 46.71, -92.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 232347
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
647 pm cdt Mon oct 23 2017

Short term (this evening through Tuesday)
issued at 354 pm cdt Mon oct 23 2017
the main forecast concerns during the short term include strong
north to northwest winds and shower chances this afternoon through
Tuesday.

An area of low pressure was located over northwest ontario with a
cool front extending south across northeast minnesota and
northwest wisconsin. Another low pressure system was over southern
lower michigan and advancing northward. The michigan system will
rapidly intensify overnight and the pressure gradient will tighten
over the northland. Cold air advection will keep the boundary
layer mixed overnight, so the wind speeds will not diminish much,
if at all, overnight. Wind speeds and gusts will increase Tuesday
early morning affecting areas along the north shore, including the
minnesota highway 61 corridor from grand portage to the twin
ports. Wind speeds from central minnesota across northwest
wisconsin will follow suit later in the morning. Have hoisted a
wind advisory for the areas where the strongest winds are
forecast. Rain showers will continue along and west of the front
this evening. Cool air advection over the lake will support lake-
enhanced rain showers over portions of northwest wisconsin
overnight. A few snowflakes may mix into the precipitation late
overnight, especially in the high terrain along the north shore,
the bayfield peninsula, and the gogebic range. The storm system is
forecast to lift northward into eastern upper michigan and then
wobble westward through mid-morning. Rain showers will spread
westward into our northwest wisconsin zones during the morning
before shifting eastward once again as the low departs.

Temperatures will trend cooler tonight and Tuesday with lows near
30 degrees over much of north-central and northeast minnesota and
the upper 30s in northwest wisconsin. Highs on Tuesday will reach
the upper 30s in northeast minnesota and the upper 40s in the st.

Croix river valley.

Long term (Tuesday night through Monday)
issued at 354 pm cdt Mon oct 23 2017
a more active pattern will develop over the northland for the
upcoming week, with the potential for our first widespread
snowfall of the season.

A longwave upper-level trough is progged to be situated over the
great lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday, which will eventually
translate eastward. A deep area of low pressure should be settled
over the eastern u.P. Of michigan, which will linger gusty
northwest winds before moving eastward. We will be on the very
western fringe of the tighter sfc pressure gradient, so winds will
be stronger the further east you go. Still, wind gusts between 15
to 20 kts will be possible over much of the northland in the
early evening Tuesday. There is a chance for a rain snow mix from
the arrowhead south to NW wi as a channel of sheared vorticity
dives southeastward from manitoba, canada. Generally, QPF appears
to be light, and the deeper lift looks to be relatively weak, so
not expecting much impact from this vorticity.

The primary focus for the upcoming week will be the potential for
accumulating snowfall Thursday evening through Friday morning.

The culprit for this system will be a mid-level shortwave trough
that will dive southeastward from british columbia alberta,
canada. At the sfc, an area of low pressure will develop due to
lee cyclogenesis and deepen over the upper midwest, along with a
deformation zone over the northern fringe of the low. There is
still a good bit of uncertainty among the synoptic models for
snowfall potential due to differing sfc low tracks. The NAM wants
to keep the sfc low center over southwest ontario, while the
gfs ECMWF cmc wants to bring the low center across our south.

Given the track from the nam, it appears to be more of an outlier
compared to the other three models. Snowfall amounts will depend
on the low track, but considering that the GFS progs the low a bit
further south with the 23.12z run compared to the 23.06z run, the
potential for snowfall has shifted south. The current gefs
ensembles continues to mention between 1 to 3" of total snowfall
accumulation across the northland. However, the consensus blends
are indicating between 2 to 5" over northwest wisconsin due to the
shift in the gfs. I would take this with a grain of salt until
the models come into better agreement, especially considering the
waffling of the models with the latest handful of runs.

Conditions will improve Friday afternoon in terms of snowfall,
but once the system departs, much colder air will settle into the
region. Low temperatures Saturday morning may drop into the middle
to upper teens for much of northeast minnesota, with lower 20s
over northwest wisconsin. Winds will remain from the northwest, so
some lake effect precipitation will be possible from the bayfield
peninsula southeast to the gogebic range Friday through Saturday.

Temperatures will remain cool into next week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 640 pm cdt Mon oct 23 2017
a strong low pressure system will move from southern michigan
north across eastern lake superior into ontario over the next 24
hours. This is going to produce strong north winds across the
terminals, beginning between 00z-03z tonight and continuing
through much of the remainder of the TAF period, with winds not
diminishing until 22z or later. MVFR stratus is expected to
stream over the terminals from the north, with worsening
conditions between issuance and 03z, with gradual improvement
expected to begin around 09z, and returning toVFR no later than
15z.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 33 42 33 50 40 20 10 10
inl 28 42 31 48 40 10 20 10
brd 35 46 35 55 0 0 0 0
hyr 36 43 31 53 70 60 10 10
asx 38 44 32 50 80 70 30 20

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... Wind advisory from 7 am to 6 pm cdt Tuesday for wiz001>004-
006>009.

Mn... Wind advisory from 4 am to 6 pm cdt Tuesday for mnz020-021-037.

Wind advisory from 7 am to 6 pm cdt Tuesday for mnz033-034-036-
038.

Ls... Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm cdt Tuesday for
lsz121-140>143-146>148.

Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 10 am cdt Tuesday for
lsz144-145.

Short term... Huyck
long term... Jts
aviation... Le


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 6 mi46 min NW 17 G 24 51°F 1007.7 hPa
PKBW3 7 mi64 min W 9.9 51°F 1009 hPa (+3.0)45°F
45027 - North of Duluth, MN 11 mi34 min NNW 16 G 18 52°F 42°F44°F
45028 - Western Lake Superior 12 mi34 min N 12 G 16 56°F 55°F2 ft50°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 55 mi52 min NNW 16 54°F 1005.8 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN2 mi70 minWNW 1010.00 miOvercast52°F46°F82%1008.1 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi69 minNW 910.00 miOvercast49°F43°F80%1008.1 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN13 mi69 minNW 15 G 2410.00 miOvercast46°F44°F93%1008.3 hPa

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S10S9SW6CalmSW6S11
G17
S7S8SW6S6SW11SW11
G14
S9SW13SW11SW10SW8W10
G15
W16NW19
G23
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NW19W10
1 day agoS12
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SW12SW12SW15SW9SW10SW11SW12SW11SW10SW8SW10SW13
G18
SW9W14W13
G21
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SW10SW7
2 days agoN6N4S9
G15
S11S7S6S6S7S7S10S10S12
G16
S10S12S18
G23
S13S11S12S8S12S13S13S13
G19
S12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.