Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Superior, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:35PM Thursday November 15, 2018 4:23 AM CST (10:23 UTC) Moonrise 1:31PMMoonset 11:40PM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ145 348 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018
.a Thunderstorm over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 348 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated a Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. This Thunderstorm was located near duluth lift bridge channel, moving east at 65 knots. Locations impacted include... French river, herbster, and barkers island. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...lightning strikes...and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && a tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4691 9192 4710 9132 4683 9115 4682 9119 4683 9121 4681 9127 4671 9205 4681 9210
LSZ145 Expires:201810032115;;190874 FZUS73 KDLH 032048 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 348 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2018 LSZ143>146-162-032115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Superior, WI
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location: 46.71, -92.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 150945
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
345 am cst Thu nov 15 2018

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 346 am cst Thu nov 15 2018
a compact shortwave trough will slide east-southeastward across
north dakota and into minnesota today. Satellite and regional
radar imagery highlight the shortwave over western north dakota,
southeast saskatchewan, and southern manitoba early this morning.

Nudged the forecast in the direction of the NAM this morning,
which seems to have the best handle on the mesoscale details this
morning. The change shifts the highest pops a bit farther south,
southern forecast area for this afternoon and tonight. Didn't
abandon the consensus entirely and kept slight chance and low-end
chance pops across the north today. Still not convinced we'll see
much of a freezing rain threat, but a brief period of light
freezing drizzle isn't entirely out of the question generally
north of the iron range to the international border. Precipitation
coverage over northeast minnesota and northern wisconsin will
increase due to increasing frontogenesis and convergence this
afternoon into the evening.

The trough will move into northeast ontario, eastern wisconsin,
and lower michigan overnight with snow showers tapering off across
much of the northland. Northwest winds and cold air advection
aloft should support a period of lake effect snow over snowbelt
areas of bayfield, ashland, iron, and price counties through
Friday. Total snow accumulation of a dusting up to 2 inches is
expected across the area with this system.

Temperatures today will start out warm once again with highs in
the low to upper 30s. Turning a little cooler tonight with lows in
the low to middle 20s. Continued cooler on Friday with highs in
the 20s to low 30s.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)
issued at 346 am cst Thu nov 15 2018
the extended period will feature periodic chances for light
precipitation and start out with temperatures well below normal
values then moderate by mid week. There will be chances for lake
effect snow at times as well along the south shore, especially
Friday night into Saturday morning.

A broad upper trough will be over the region to start the period
with surface high pressure over the alberta and saskatchewan area.

Cold temperatures will continue to move into the northland with
850mb temperatures of -13c to -18c by 12z Saturday. There will be
a chance for lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday with
chances highest over the snowbelt of iron county between 06z
Saturday and 18z Saturday. Northerly low level winds will develop
along with favorable delta-t values. There will be little large
scale lift present so the snow will be driven by lake processes. A
few inches will be possible, mostly likely in the gile, montreal,
and hurley areas. The western surface high will continue moving
south Saturday through the northern plains. This will cause the
low level winds to back during the day diminishing the snow
chances along the south shore. The high will continue to move
south with dry conditions for all areas expected Saturday night. A
shortwave will brush the international border on Sunday and there
may be some light snow showers there with most other areas
remaining dry. The weekend will be quite cold with highs in the
teens to mid twenties.

An upper ridge will have moved onto the western CONUS and british
columbia over the weekend with northerly flow over the northland
continuing Monday. There are differences between the GFS and ecmwf
on Monday night Tuesday with the GFS bringing a clipper system
through the region where the ECMWF shows a much weaker trough. The
impacts to the sensible weather would be chances for snow from
the GFS and a dry ECMWF forecast. The canadian has a solution
between these two. We have low chances for light snow in spots
Monday night into Tuesday for now. Warm air advection will also
occur Tuesday into Wednesday as the western upper ridge move
further inland and the low level flow backs. There will be
additional chances for light snow Tuesday night but Wednesday
looks to be dry. Warmer temperatures will develop during the
week... From highs in the teens and mid twenties Monday to the
thirties on Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1138 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
low pressure in southeast manitoba will move into northwest
ontario through the forecast. Scattered to broken cirrus over most
of the terminals. Llws affecting all terminals at the start of the
forecast as a low level jet was nearby. The jet will move east
through the first part of the forecast ending the llws, and gusty
surface winds affecting the terminals will subside. Clouds around
4k feet will overspread the area with showers in the vicinity as a
cold front begins to move through the area. A trend to MVFR with
snow showers with fropa. Isold areas of ifr CIGS may be found near
the more robust showers.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 36 25 29 12 50 60 10 10
inl 35 22 23 7 30 20 10 10
brd 38 24 28 12 40 50 10 10
hyr 36 27 30 16 10 60 10 10
asx 37 28 32 18 20 70 20 30

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory until noon cst today for lsz121-146>148.

Gale warning until 6 am cst early this morning for lsz121-140-
141-146>148.

Small craft advisory until noon cst today for lsz144-145.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm cst this afternoon for lsz142-
143.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm cst this afternoon for lsz140-
141.

Short term... Huyck
long term... Melde
aviation... Gsf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 6 mi35 min SSW 12 G 17 35°F 44°F1013.9 hPa21°F
PKBW3 7 mi143 min SSW 6 35°F 21°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN2 mi27 minSSW 1410.00 miFair34°F23°F65%1014.2 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi28 minSSW 710.00 miFair32°F19°F61%1014.2 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN13 mi28 minSSW 14 G 2110.00 miFair32°F19°F61%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3S3S6S5S3CalmNE3N4NE5N6NE9S4SE6S7S7S16S15
G20
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S11SW12S10
1 day agoW8W8SW7SW7SW7W8W7SW8SW9W10
G15
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SW11W9W9W6S6S5SW8SW5SW5SW5SW4CalmSW5
2 days agoW16
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NW18W16
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W14NW14NW14
G18
W11W11
G15
W15W14
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W14W15W12NW10W13
G17
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NW13W8W9W9W9NW16NW13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.