Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duluth, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 9:08PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 2:03 AM CDT (07:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:43AMMoonset 11:20PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 633 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 17 2017
.a strong Thunderstorm over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 632 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm... Capable of producing winds to around 33 knots and small hail. This strong Thunderstorm was located near larsmont...or 14 nm southwest of split rock lighthouse...moving east at 20 knots. Locations impacted include... Larsmont... Two harbors... Castle danger... And twin points safe harbor. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4695 9185 4717 9145 4711 9118 4684 9152
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 Expires:201706180000;;398039 FZUS73 KDLH 172333 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 633 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017 LSZ143>145-162-180000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duluth, MN
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location: 46.76, -92.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 280530
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1230 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017

Update
Issued at 1223 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017
updated aviation section for 06z tafs below.

Update issued at 1010 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017
have been watching an area of thunderstorms that started out over
western mn west of alexandria that appeared to be rooted in the
strong 700mb warm air advection & frontogenesis zone there. Since
then this zone has shifted east and has brought the northwest to
southeast oriented area of showers and thunderstorms to a park
rapids towards the twin cities, just catching southern cass county
for now. Expect this to continue to shift east for the next few
hours even as the main show takes shape over central north dakota.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 356 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017
the main concerns during the short term involve the potential for
rain and thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday, and the possibility
of excessive rainfall and strong to severe storms.

High pressure will remain the primary influence over the
northland this evening keeping mainly clear skies and dry
conditions. Winds will remain breezy through the evening thanks to
deep mixing. An approaching area of low pressure from the dakotas
will trigger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Those storms are forecast to move into the northland late
tonight and re-intensify on Wednesday. Northward moisture
transport ahead of the system will bring pwats of around 1.5
inches into portions of northeast minnesota and northwest
wisconsin. Those values are >90% of climatology for later june.

The strongest 850 mb moisture transport should graze portions of
sawyer and price county tomorrow afternoon based on the 12z gfs
and nam. The 18z nam, however, shunts most of the moisture east of
our area. The GFS and gem bring moderate instability northward
into our southern CWA Wednesday afternoon, but the NAM keeps the
strongest destabilization south of our area. Even so, there seems
to be enough support for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two
during the afternoon hours. Much of the severe weather potential
will hinge on whether we can scour the clouds by early afternoon.

Should clouds and showers linger, the severe weather risk will be
quite small. The bigger concern relates to the abundant moisture
available for precipitation. Much of northwest wisconsin and areas
along the north shore have been included in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall by wpc, with a tiny sliver of price county in
the slight risk area. While there is a risk of flash flooding,
think the potential is too low this afternoon to warrant a watch.

Will handle the threat with an sps and mentions in hwo for now.

Flash flood guidance for much of northwest wisconsin is in the 2.5
to 3.5 inch 6-hour range, with a few pockets above 3.5 inches.

While northern portions of the forecast area will see rain and
thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday, think the greatest chances
and highest amounts will be located south of a line from near
walker to duluth to mercer wi.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 356 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017
the shortwave and elongated surface low that will bring
widespread rain to the region on Wednesday will gradually push off
to the east of the region Wednesday night. As a result, the
showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease from southwest
to northeast. Some showers will likely linger in the minnesota
arrowhead and portions of northern wisconsin through the night,
and even into Thursday. The next shortwave will already begin to
affect the northland Thursday night, and especially Friday. The
deterministic models actually show two upper level lows that will
move across the the northern states, with an area of showers and
thunderstorms expected to fill in between the two main upper level
systems. This double barrel type system will affect the region
into Saturday as well, with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms throughout the day. There will be small chances of
showers and thunderstorms from Sunday into Sunday night as well,
but dry weather is expected across the region on Monday and
Tuesday of the upcoming work week. Still looking like it will be
dry and mild on independence day. High temperatures early in the
period will range from the upper 60s to middle 70s, but
temperatures will warm into the 70s for daytime highs by early
next week. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 40s to
middle 50s.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1223 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017
a strong low pressure system to advance towards and across the
area during the TAF period. Strong south winds ahead of the low
and aloft has produced llws for several terminals which should
continue for much of the overnight period. Moisture surging north
along with a warm front has already generated showers and
thunderstorms in vicinity of kbrd, which will gradually spread
east to affect the remaining terminals through 12z. The initial
waves of showers and thunderstorms to bring MVFR conditions. As
the surface low gets closer expect a period of ifr ceilings and
MVFR visibilities beginning around 10z for kbrd, later for the
other terminals. The back edge of the precipitation should move
into kbrd around 21z, but lingering ifr MVFR ceilings to linger
for a few more hours, followed by a return toVFR. The other
terminals to follow a similar pattern, though expect those
locations to remain MVFR or ifr through the remainder of the taf
period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 55 63 54 71 50 90 40 10
inl 57 67 55 72 50 80 50 20
brd 58 72 57 77 70 80 20 10
hyr 56 69 58 74 60 90 40 10
asx 56 68 54 71 40 90 50 20

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm cdt this
evening for lsz140>145.

Update... Le
short term... Huyck
long term... Dap
aviation... Le


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 1 mi52 min W 4.1 G 7 64°F 47°F
PKBW3 7 mi124 min Calm 54°F 1011 hPa (+0.0)53°F
45027 - North of Duluth, MN 11 mi34 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 53°F 47°F48°F
45028 - Western Lake Superior 14 mi34 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 60°F 54°F1 ft49°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 56 mi64 min SW 2.9 G 8 56°F 1009.5 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN4 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair61°F50°F68%1009.5 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN7 mi69 minS 810.00 miA Few Clouds59°F46°F62%1009.4 hPa
Cloquet Carlton County Airport, MN22 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair57°F42°F59%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW8SW8S6SW8S5S5SW6W7SW12
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SW10SW8S5S6CalmS5SW3
1 day agoCalmSW5SW4W7W6S3W4CalmN4CalmN8N11
G16
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NW8W9SE8SE3S3CalmSW6SW7SW6
2 days agoW9W8W7W8NW5W6W6W7W8NW15
G21
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N9NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.