Friday, May25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duluth, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:50PM Friday May 25, 2018 1:51 PM CDT (18:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:38PMMoonset 2:50AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ144 343 Am Cdt Thu May 24 2018
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 342 am cdt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 35 knots, small hail, and frequent cloud to water lightning. This strong Thunderstorm was located over superior harbor, or over barkers island, moving east at 20 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will be near... Brule point around 430 am cdt. Other locations impacted by the strong Thunderstorm include brule point. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. Intense lightning is occurring with this storm. If caught on the open water...stay below deck if possible and keep away from ungrounded metal objects. && lat...lon 4666 9203 4671 9210 4676 9214 4679 9213 4686 9157 4672 9156 4669 9176 4666 9193
LSZ144 Expires:201805240930;;445834 FZUS73 KDLH 240843 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 343 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018 LSZ144-145-162-240930-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duluth, MN
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location: 46.76, -92.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 251758
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1258 pm cdt Fri may 25 2018

Update
Issued at 1258 pm cdt Fri may 25 2018
update for new 18z aviation discussion below.

Update issued at 907 am cdt Fri may 25 2018
updated forecast for NW wi as the precipitation is moving off to
the east. The next shortwave that will affect the region is in
manitoba moving southeast. The chances for more showers and
thunderstorms will continue with the shortwave. Made minor
adjustment to temps. Rest of fcst unchanged.

Short term (today through Saturday)
issued at 341 am cdt Fri may 25 2018
the forecast focus through Saturday will continue to be on
shower thunderstorm chances as a few different shortwaves move
through the region.

Much of the thunderstorms were just south of the northland as of
0830z, but there were stronger storms moving out of the twin
cities west central wisconsin region which will likely affect
portions of northwest wisconsin early this morning. Area 88d's
show a veering low level jet of 30-35 knots into northwest
wisconsin. The storms this morning over northwest wisconsin could
be strong with some producing small hail. A few showers and storms
can't be ruled out further north and west either in this moist
and unstable airmass. A shortwave embedded in an upper trough will
move into the region today arriving in far eastern minnesota and
northwest wisconsin during peak heating. Low level convergence
will not be very strong as seen in the rap's 0-1km wind field.

However, plenty of instability will be in place with surface
dewpoints this afternoon in the lower to middle sixties over
northwest wisconsin. This should yield MLCAPE around 2000 j kg. As
has been the case, shear will be lacking but 0-6km values may
approach 30 knots. Additional storms will develop as the upper
wave moves in and we have chances highest this afternoon evening
over northwest wisconsin. There will be a risk for a few severe
storms, especially from eastern minnesota into northwest wisconsin
with northwest wisconsin having the best chance. Today will be
warm with highs in the lower to middle eighties.

The chance for showers storms will end or diminish this evening
over much of the northland from west to east. However, another
shortwave is forecast to move along the international border
bringing a chance for more showers and storms, mainly over far
northern minnesota.

A trough over northeast minnesota lake superior northern
wisconsin will keep the threat for a few showers storms on
Saturday over those areas, with the walker, brainerd lakes,
aitkin, siren areas expected to be dry. It will again be quite
warm with highs in the eighties for most areas.

Long term (Saturday night through Thursday)
issued at 341 am cdt Fri may 25 2018
little change in the on-going theme of the long-term forecast,
with more chances of showers and thunderstorms, along with some
very warm and humid conditions, particularly Sunday and Monday.

Saturday night and Sunday will have some lingering chances of
showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, as the remnants of a mid-
level shortwave trough exits the region. Northwest flow aloft and
mid- level ridging will take its place during the day Sunday. Very
hot conditions are looking more likely with abundant sunshine,
and a warm and humid air mass in place. The ridging will provide
good subsidence to stave off cloud cover for most of the day, with
highs reaching into the upper 80s and even the lower 90s for some
locations. Westerly flow will also stave off any lake breeze that
otherwise would develop, so even areas along lake superior will
get in on the heat.

Then, an upper-level cut-off low develops over the intermountain
west states, and slowly advances eastward over the region, with an
associated surface low meandering into the region. Upper-level
diffluence forms on the leeward side of the trough, bringing
deeper overall lift to support chances of showers and storms.

There's some disagreement in the gfs ECMWF gem models regarding
the areal coverage of precipitation and the amount of instability
available for fueling convection. Due to the uncertainty, leaned
towards the consensus model blends for pops, which keep chances of
showers and storms in the region through the day Wednesday.

Cold air advection moves into the region on the backside of the
surface low, with 925 mb temperatures dipping into the 15 to 20
degree c range. The main consequence of this will be some cooler
temperatures for Thursday and Friday - a break from the balmy
temperatures we are expected to experience Sunday through
Wednesday. Highs Thursday and Friday will return to the middle to
upper 70s, which is still slightly above seasonal averages.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1258 pm cdt Fri may 25 2018
atmosphere over the northland has begun to destabilize as evident
by the cumulus which has developed in the past hour. Still think
we will see a few thunderstorms developing over the region, which
may affect the terminals. Continued the vcts mentions for now.

Would like to see additional storm development before adding
prevailing -tsra. Thunder potential decreases this evening as the
best forcing for storms pushes east. Forecast isVFR for now, but
will likely adjust with some MVFR ifr visibility or ceilings once
storms develop.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 85 58 85 53 40 20 20 0
inl 85 55 82 52 30 50 30 0
brd 87 58 88 57 20 10 0 0
hyr 86 58 89 55 50 30 20 0
asx 85 57 80 49 50 20 30 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Dense fog advisory until 4 pm cdt this afternoon for lsz140>143.

Update... Stewart
short term... Melde
long term... Jts
aviation... Huyck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 1 mi82 min SSW 8 G 15 81°F 1005.1 hPa64°F
45027 - North of Duluth, MN 11 mi62 min NE 1.9 G 3.9 45°F 37°F1005.6 hPa45°F
45028 - Western Lake Superior 14 mi62 min SSW 1.9 G 5.8 55°F 40°F1005.5 hPa55°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN4 mi56 minSW 1010.00 miFair82°F66°F58%1005.1 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi57 minSSW 9 G 1910.00 miFair83°F64°F53%1005.4 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN7 mi57 minWSW 15 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds84°F63°F49%1005.4 hPa
Cloquet Carlton County Airport, MN22 mi57 minSSW 10 G 1410.00 miFair82°F57°F42%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E5E4CalmNW3CalmCalmNE6NE6NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW8SW15SW12W12SW12
1 day agoNE7E9NE7NE6NE5N4NE3N4NE3NE3NE7NE6NE5N4N7CalmCalmCalmCalmN4E4E7N5NE5
2 days agoE6E4E5E5SW7SW9SW6SW6SW6SW5SW6S4SW5SW4S4SW4SW4SW3SW3CalmE5NE5NE7NE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.