Monday, December18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duluth, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 4:23PM Monday December 18, 2017 3:08 AM CST (09:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:50AMMoonset 5:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 816 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 24 2017
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 816 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm northwest of larsmont...to 8 nm southeast of superior harbor...moving northeast at 50 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island...split rock bay...raspberry island lighthouse... Castle danger...sand island...sugar loaf cove...tofte safe harbor... Twin points safe harbor...tofte...mouth of the little marais river... Beaver bay...mouth of the cross river...port wing safe harbor...brule point...herbster...apostle islands sea caves...larsmont...split rock lighthouse...red cliff...and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4689 9196 4715 9149 4754 9094 4762 9080 4687 9066 4682 9086 4688 9080 4693 9086 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9150 4666 9192
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 Expires:201709250215;;885660 FZUS73 KDLH 250116 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 816 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017 LSZ141>147-162-250215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duluth, MN
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location: 46.76, -92.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 180900
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
300 am cst Mon dec 18 2017

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 300 am cst Mon dec 18 2017
mild today ahead of a cold front which will bring light snow to much
of the northland, perhaps mixing with rain at times. Windy Tuesday
with mostly sunny skies for parts of east-central mn and northwest
wisconsin with temperatures remaining on the mild side.

On the synoptic scale a generally zonal flow aloft across the
northern plains and upper midwest, though a tightening gradient as
an upper low deepens and descends upon northern manitoba and far
northwest ontario today into tomorrow. At low levels an elevated
warm front will briefly build into the northland today from west to
east before a cold front overtakes it from the north. As warmer air
advects in at low levels, highs will rise to the mid 30s across much
of the northland, though with at least a few inches of snow on the
ground across the region, the warmer air over the snow pack will
lead to patchy fog through the day. As a cold front and associated
low-level shortwave trough approach from the northwest this
afternoon broad-scale lift will result in a broad area of light
precipitation. Precip should be mainly in the form of snow, but some
drizzle rain is possible at times given the near-freezing surface
temperatures. Decent lift through the snow growth zone combined with
low levels already being saturated could produce some larger
snowflakes as dendrites collide and aggregate. This could have the
effect of producing slightly more snowfall, so forecast snowfall
amounts for today were raised slightly. Now around 1 to 3 inches are
expected, still generally limited to around the iron range and
points north in northern minnesota. The most intense snowfall rates
will occur during the afternoon evening commute time along and east
of highway 53 north of the iron range. Some light snow possible for
the twin PORTS in the evening hours, but less than an inch is
expected. Breezy southwest winds at times with a few gusts to around
20-25 mph.

Overnight a brief period of lake enhanced snow showers are possible
for the south shore as colder air advects into the region and low
level winds turn more northwesterly. The window of time will be
brief between when winds turn northwesterly and the drier air moves
in aloft. Low level wind directions would also support the brief
development of the north shore gravity wave, which could cause a
band of snow to impact the bayfield peninsula for a period
overnight. Up to an inch of snow is possible for parts of the south
shore due to these local effects, with snowfall possibly lingering
into the Tuesday morning hours. Otherwise mostly cloudy with lows in
the mid 20s and northwest winds remaining breezy at 10 to 15 mph.

On Tuesday skies will be mostly to partly sunny with the possibility
for strato alto cumulus clouds to bubble up in the afternoon as deep
low level mixing leads to windy conditions. Northwest winds will be
15 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Otherwise mild with
temperatures above normal, in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)
issued at 300 am cst Mon dec 18 2017
an active extended period is in store across the region with a
period of snow Wednesday and Wednesday night with a winter storm
passing through the region bringing another chance for accumulating
snow to portions of the northland Thursday into Friday. There will
be lake effect snow as well Wednesday night into the weekend,
including portions of the north shore, twin ports, and south shore
into Friday shifting to just the south shore over the weekend. Very
cold air is also still expected to arrive Saturday and continue into
next week.

Increasing warm air advection will cause snow to develop across
portions of the northland Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon. The
snow will spread across most of the northland Wednesday night. Low
level winds will become easterly on Wednesday and will lead to
higher snowfall along the north shore into the twin PORTS due to
lake processes. The snow will become light or end late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning for most areas with the exception at the
head of lake superior which will see east northeast low level winds
continue. Inversion levels are forecast to be around 3000ft or less
which should limit snow intensity. At this time, we expect snowfall
totals from 1 to 2 inches for most areas Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night, with higher amounts along the north shore.

An upper trough will move onto the western CONUS coast late Tuesday
into Tuesday night, then continue into the northern rockies to great
basin region by 12z Thursday. Surface low pressure will develop in
response with an extension of the low well north of the center into
the northland on Thursday. The surface low will move toward the
nebraska missouri kansas border by early Thursday evening, then
track toward southern wisconsin or southern lake michigan Friday
afternoon. Snow is expected to develop Thursday and continue into
Friday. Chances will be highest over northwest wisconsin into far
east central to northeast minnesota. Lake processes will be ongoing
through this time as well complicating the snowfall forecast. We
expect the highest snowfall totals over northwest wisconsin with
little snowfall from this second round from walker to ely on north.

Confidence is increasing that at least several inches will occur
over northwest wisconsin, possibly as far west as mcgregor, the twin
ports north toward silver bay. This storm is still several days away
so adjustments in the track will likely occur which will alter
expected snowfall amounts. Also, shifts in the low level winds will
have a big impact on which areas see lake enhanced snowfall.

As the low pulls away from the region Friday into Friday night, the
snow will diminish for most areas. Lake effect snow will continue to
be possible along the south shore with more accumulation possible.

Colder air will be moving into the region Friday behind the low with
a big push of much colder air coming in on Saturday into Sunday. The
gfs has returned to a solution that has a low pressure system in the
vicinity of the northland christmas eve day into christmas day but
the ECMWF shows no sign of the low. Confidence in which solution
ends up being correct is low. The GFS would suggest some light snow
accumulation possible over portions of the northland christmas
eve christmas versus a drier ecmwf. Highs Wednesday are expected
from the 10 to 15 along the international border to around 20 in
northwest wisconsin. Highs will warm a few degrees Thursday and
Friday then cool over the weekend. By Sunday, highs will only reach
the single digits below zero over far northern minnesota to the
single digits above over southern areas of the northland. Even
colder temperatures are expected christmas day into next week and
much of the region may see highs remain below zero.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1148 pm cst Sun dec 17 2017
widespread ifr & lifr conditions in stratus as of issuance time
to continue through approximately 15z Monday. Fog drizzle
expected to develop as well, and should affect the terminals
through 16z time range, with visibilities as low as lifr as well.

Some improvement is expected to MVFR ceilings withVFR visibilities
in the 16z-18z time range. The next round of snow to begin moving
into the terminals after 20z. Kinl and khib to be most affected,
with MVFR ifr visibilities and ifr lifr ceilings in -sn. Snow to
end from west to east beginning around 03z.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 33 23 28 7 50 50 0 0
inl 33 22 24 0 80 70 20 0
brd 35 23 30 12 10 20 0 10
hyr 34 25 32 10 20 30 0 0
asx 35 26 32 12 30 50 10 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 10 pm cst Tuesday for lsz140-146-147.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm cst Tuesday for lsz141>143.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm cst
Tuesday for lsz121-148.

Short term... Jjm
long term... Melde
aviation... Le


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 1 mi51 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 26°F 1011 hPa23°F
PKBW3 7 mi129 min N 2.9 26°F 1013 hPa (-2.0)24°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 56 mi59 min WSW 11 G 16 28°F 1010.5 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN4 mi74 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast27°F24°F93%1011.2 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi74 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast26°F23°F91%1011.5 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN7 mi74 minSW 61.00 miFog/Mist23°F23°F100%1011.8 hPa
Cloquet Carlton County Airport, MN22 mi74 minS 42.50 miFog/Mist23°F21°F93%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S4SW3SW3SW3CalmSW4W5CalmSW6SW5W5SW6SW3SW3SW3SW4SW6SW7SW7SW6SW8W8S5
1 day agoE10E8E11E13E9E7E9E9E12E12
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E7SE5E3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW9W7W11NW8NW7W7NW8NW8W7W7W6SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmSE5SE5SE4SE5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.