Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duluth, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 8:08PM Monday August 21, 2017 10:53 AM CDT (15:53 UTC) Moonrise 4:58AMMoonset 7:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 732 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 8 2017
.a cluster of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 730 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms... Capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located 10 nm southeast of french river...or 12 nm west of port wing safe harbor... Moving southeast at 20 knots. Locations impacted include... Larsmont...duluth lift bridge channel...port wing safe harbor...brule point...herbster...and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4707 9163 4685 9107 4682 9118 4683 9121 4673 9151 4668 9184 4678 9215
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 Expires:201708090100;;088496 FZUS73 KDLH 090032 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 732 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017 LSZ143>146-162-090100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duluth, MN
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location: 46.76, -92.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 211505
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1005 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017

Update
Issued at 1005 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
refined precipitation chances through tonight based on the latest
consensus of model guidance. The rap and hrrr seem to be doing
alright capturing the light rain from high clouds spreading
through central minnesota this morning. This light rain,
associated with the wave coming from the west, will move east
through the forecast area through early this afternoon. Also,
increased pcpn chances across northwest wisconsin this afternoon
and evening based on good model agreement for showers and storms.

Update issued at 738 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
showers continue to develop over the area as well as in western mn
ahead of a couple of embedded impulses in the fast flow aloft.

Have added pops to several locations this morning to better
reflect the current radar trends. Rest of the forecast unchanged.

Update issued at 735 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
please see the new 12z aviation discussion below.

Update issued at 627 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
a batch of showers has quickly developed over pine county,
southern douglas, burnett and washburn counties. Added pops into
these areas to account for the showers. A rumble of thunder is
also possible as MUCAPE is about 250 j kg. Made some adjustments
to account for this activity.

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 337 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
a fast quasi-zonal flow aloft covered the forecast area at 08z while
high pressure was in charge at the surface. A mix of mid and high
clouds were streaming over the area in advance of several embedded
impulses moving along in the fast flow. Some patchy fog had also
formed. The additional cloud cover arriving from the west may limit
the overall extent of anymore fog forming. The models offer
different solutions on how the morning evolves and if any showers
develop and affect the region. Used a blended approach to pops which
led to some pops over southern price county by mid morning. This is
in response to the impulse in eastern sd at this moment. A second,
stronger impulse moves through the southern portion of the forecast
area in the afternoon. The short term hires models attempt to keep
this area from much in the way of precipitation in northwest wi.

Meanwhile, the deterministic models are more bullish on qpf.

Attempted a blend here as well which led to higher pops over the
southeast corner of the region in the late afternoon. Unfortunately,
with these impulses moving through the area, this will lead to an
expansive cloud cover right at eclipse time.

A vigorous long wave trof will drop south out of canada tonight and
across the region. A strong cold front will accompany this trof.

850mb temps will drop from the teens celsius ahead of the front trof
to the single digits behind the front. Look for showers and
thunderstorms over northwest wi in the evening, diminishing
overnight as the cold front departs. Lower pops farther north
tonight as dry air is advected into the northern half of the region
as the strongest impulse in the base of the upper trof moves quickly
east of the area. A fairly tight pressure gradient will be found
across the area tonight with the cooler temps making it feel very
fall-like.

Model differences prevail once again on Tuesday. A surface trof is
progged to clip the northern third of the forecast area in the
afternoon. The NAM gem arw nmm GFS are all dry, but the ECMWF brings
a swath of QPF into the border region as a channeled area of
vorticity slides into the area. The pops across the north
acknowledge the ECMWF solution, with some weight to the other
models.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)
issued at 337 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
temperatures trend a bit cooler for the start of the long term,
moderating through the end of the week, with a few chances of
showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday evening will see a stout upper trough over eastern
canada, portions of the great lakes, and new england. Several
shortwave disturbances will be found rotating around the closed
low over northeast ontario and western quebec. Another shortwave
trough will approach from upstream and kick the closed low
farther east Tuesday night and Wednesday. That disturbance will
move out of southern manitoba and into northern minnesota during
the day Wednesday, and may provide enough lift for a few isolated
showers or maybe a thunderstorm. Temperatures aloft will be
somewhat chilly for late august with 850 mb values in the middle
single digits celsius Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.

The cool temperatures aloft and cloud cover associated with the
transient wave should yield afternoon highs in the 60s over the
northland.

High pressure returns in the wake of the passing shortwave trough
bringing mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies to the area and
gradually moderating temperatures. Quiet and mostly sunny
conditions are expected Thursday through Friday afternoon.

Deterministic guidance then diverges with the handling of the
next shortwave trough for Friday afternoon through Saturday
night. The ECMWF brings clouds and precipitation into the
northland as early as Friday afternoon, while the cmc and GFS are
a bit slower. All three models slow the forward progression of
the shortwave due to a deepening trough downstream over quebec
and new england. The consensus of the guidance keeps a chance of
rain in the picture for much of the weekend. Think that's the
right call with this update and have broad-brushed slight and low-
end chance pops across much of the northland for the weekend into
Monday. Temperatures will trend near normal Friday through Monday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 735 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
scattered showers will affect the northland today as a trough of
low pressure aloft moves through the region. A broken line of
thunderstorms over central wisconsin, southern minnesota, and
northern south dakota may eventually drift northward toward hyr
and brd this afternoon. Otherwise, mainlyVFR conditions are
expected outside of the showers. Areas that receive rain today
should see some fog development overnight, but left any explicit
mentions of lower visibility out of the forecast for now due to
low confidence in timing location.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 74 53 71 50 30 10 10 0
inl 74 49 70 47 30 20 20 0
brd 73 53 72 50 50 10 0 0
hyr 78 54 71 49 50 60 0 0
asx 77 55 72 51 40 30 10 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Grochocinski
short term... Gsf
long term... Huyck
aviation... Huyck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 1 mi53 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 68°F 59°F
PKBW3 7 mi113 min SE 1.9 60°F 1018 hPa (-1.0)58°F
45028 - Western Lake Superior 14 mi43 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 65°F 67°F62°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 56 mi73 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 64°F 1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN4 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair68°F60°F78%1016.9 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi58 minN 010.00 mi69°F59°F74%1016.9 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN7 mi58 minESE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F55°F73%1017.6 hPa
Cloquet Carlton County Airport, MN22 mi58 minESE 410.00 miFair68°F51°F56%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW9W8W10W12W6W11NW12W9W8W7SW4NW10S4S4S4S3S3CalmCalmS3S3CalmCalm
1 day agoSW6SW6W9SW12
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2 days agoS5CalmSW5SW7SW6S6SW6SW6S8SW7SW4SW11SW8SW9SW6SW9SW7S5SW9SW9SW8SW8S7S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.