Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Duluth, MN
March 29, 2024 4:52 AM CDT (09:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:50 AM Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 11:46 PM Moonset 7:26 AM |
LSZ144 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0031.000000t0000z-231005t2000z/ 229 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Two harbors to duluth mn - .
the Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4691 9165 4705 9109 4694 9096 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4682 9127 4674 9158 time - .mot - .loc 1929z 256deg 36kt 4684 9149
the affected areas were - . Two harbors to duluth mn - .
the Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4691 9165 4705 9109 4694 9096 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4682 9127 4674 9158 time - .mot - .loc 1929z 256deg 36kt 4684 9149
LSZ100
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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 290922 AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 422 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A clipper system will bring mixed precipitation and the potential for up to around 3 inches of snow from Friday afternoon into midday Saturday.
- Ice amounts increased with this forecast for portions of the North Shore and northwest Wisconsin. Winter Weather Advisories were issued.
- A storm system will move across the Midwest early next week.
The system continues to trend farther south, with a low chance (10-20%) for winter weather impacts for southern portions of the Northland, primarily in NW WI.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Rest of today:
Sunny skies have developed across most of the Northland as high pressure settles into the region, with the exception being across the tip of the MN Arrowhead where very light snow/flurries had lingered into the early afternoon. Afternoon temperatures are topping out in the upper 20s to mid 30s have been accompanied by westerly winds gusting to 15 to 25 mph, but will quickly weaken and become light this evening.
Tonight:
High-level cloud cover gradually builds into the region tonight ahead of an approaching clipper system to our west. While the night looks quiet for the most part, there is a signal for some patchy fog tonight into early Friday morning from central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, and up to around Duluth. The probability for visibilities to be reduced to around a mile remain around 30% or less at this time.
Friday - Saturday:
Cloud cover continues to increase across the region on Friday and Saturday as the clipper moves east across northern ND and northern MN. Precipitation chances begin earliest across central and north-central Friday afternoon and then expand eastwards across the Northland Friday evening into Friday night before exiting the Northland from west to east on Saturday morning into early afternoon. Model thermal profiles continue to support a mix of wintry precipitation with this system in the form of rain, snow, freezing rain, possibly some brief sleet. The potential for freezing rain/sleet would be primarily Friday evening into early Saturday morning when temperatures are below freezing before warming above freezing again by late Saturday morning across the Northland. A loss of cloud ice on the back side of this system Friday night into Saturday morning could also lead to freezing drizzle, as well.
Overall, the snow amounts trended slightly upwards for portions of northern Minnesota and the North Shore where precipitation will primarily be in the form of snow. Amounts range from a dusting across the southern tier of counties in our CWA to around 0.5-1.5 inches around the US Highway 2 corridor to 1 to 3 inches north of US Highway 2. Localized amounts slightly over 3 inches cannot be ruled out along the North Shore due to easterly winds off of Lake Superior into the higher terrain of the North Shore leading to a bump in forecast snowfall due to lake and terrain enhancement. Ice accumulations are primarily confined to the US Highway 2 corridor and areas south where generally a light glaze to a few hundredths of an inch of accretions are possible. The freezing drizzle could lead to some very light glazes of ice into northern Minnesota, however, depending on whether or not loss of ice crystals aloft occurs there Friday night.
Late Sunday - Early Next Week System:
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement on a Colorado Low developing late Sunday, with fairly good agreement in the track of the low cutting eastwards across southern portions of the Midwest from Sunday night through late Monday. The trend of guidance sliding this system farther south of the Northland continues, so while precipitation probabilities of 10-30% get into central MN into NW WI late Sunday through Monday night, precipitation amounts have continued to trend southward. NBM probabilities for greater than 1" of snow with this early week system only look to be around 20% or less for southern portions of the Northland, highest over NW WI. Given forecast temperatures Sunday into early next week, this precipitation would likely be in the form of a rain/snow mix.
Warming Temperatures into Next Week:
We see temperatures gradually turn warmer this weekend into next week, with highs warming from the upper 30s to mid 40s this weekend to widespread 40s by mid next week. There is even some potential for some 50s to creep into the Northland late next week as a ridge builds overhead, but a lingering snowpack may lead to forecast temperatures needing to be lowered a few degrees until the snow melts completely. Some lingering light precipitation is possible into mid-next week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals through midday as winds become easterly. The chance for fog and low visibilities early this morning has decreased dramatically. An area of snow and rain pushes from west to east in the late afternoon into the evening bringing worsening conditions. At least MVFR expected by the end of the TAF period, with some pockets of IFR possible (and likely just beyond the TAF period). Should be mostly snow for INL, HIB, and DLH. Some rain/snow mixed possible at BRD with a low chance for freezing rain.
At HYR, precipitation type begins as rain, but freezing rain is possible later in the evening.
MARINE
Issued at 422 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
High pressure will advance eastward ahead of a developing clipper system this morning. Look for winds to veer northeasterly and easterly by this evening and gradually strengthen. Winds and waves will become hazardous for small craft near the Twin Ports this afternoon. Hazardous conditions will expand up the North Shore and South Shore this evening. As the clipper propagates east of the area Saturday, look for winds to back northwesterly and westerly with wind speeds and gusts diminishing. Wind speeds and gusts will increase again Sunday night and Monday as a pair of low pressure systems pass over the region. One system will east-southeast across northern Ontario while the other, slower and more potent, system passes east across the central Plains and Midwest. Conditions may become hazardous to small craft once again early next week.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ020-021.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ001>003.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ004-009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ141>143-146-147-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ144-145.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 422 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A clipper system will bring mixed precipitation and the potential for up to around 3 inches of snow from Friday afternoon into midday Saturday.
- Ice amounts increased with this forecast for portions of the North Shore and northwest Wisconsin. Winter Weather Advisories were issued.
- A storm system will move across the Midwest early next week.
The system continues to trend farther south, with a low chance (10-20%) for winter weather impacts for southern portions of the Northland, primarily in NW WI.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Rest of today:
Sunny skies have developed across most of the Northland as high pressure settles into the region, with the exception being across the tip of the MN Arrowhead where very light snow/flurries had lingered into the early afternoon. Afternoon temperatures are topping out in the upper 20s to mid 30s have been accompanied by westerly winds gusting to 15 to 25 mph, but will quickly weaken and become light this evening.
Tonight:
High-level cloud cover gradually builds into the region tonight ahead of an approaching clipper system to our west. While the night looks quiet for the most part, there is a signal for some patchy fog tonight into early Friday morning from central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, and up to around Duluth. The probability for visibilities to be reduced to around a mile remain around 30% or less at this time.
Friday - Saturday:
Cloud cover continues to increase across the region on Friday and Saturday as the clipper moves east across northern ND and northern MN. Precipitation chances begin earliest across central and north-central Friday afternoon and then expand eastwards across the Northland Friday evening into Friday night before exiting the Northland from west to east on Saturday morning into early afternoon. Model thermal profiles continue to support a mix of wintry precipitation with this system in the form of rain, snow, freezing rain, possibly some brief sleet. The potential for freezing rain/sleet would be primarily Friday evening into early Saturday morning when temperatures are below freezing before warming above freezing again by late Saturday morning across the Northland. A loss of cloud ice on the back side of this system Friday night into Saturday morning could also lead to freezing drizzle, as well.
Overall, the snow amounts trended slightly upwards for portions of northern Minnesota and the North Shore where precipitation will primarily be in the form of snow. Amounts range from a dusting across the southern tier of counties in our CWA to around 0.5-1.5 inches around the US Highway 2 corridor to 1 to 3 inches north of US Highway 2. Localized amounts slightly over 3 inches cannot be ruled out along the North Shore due to easterly winds off of Lake Superior into the higher terrain of the North Shore leading to a bump in forecast snowfall due to lake and terrain enhancement. Ice accumulations are primarily confined to the US Highway 2 corridor and areas south where generally a light glaze to a few hundredths of an inch of accretions are possible. The freezing drizzle could lead to some very light glazes of ice into northern Minnesota, however, depending on whether or not loss of ice crystals aloft occurs there Friday night.
Late Sunday - Early Next Week System:
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement on a Colorado Low developing late Sunday, with fairly good agreement in the track of the low cutting eastwards across southern portions of the Midwest from Sunday night through late Monday. The trend of guidance sliding this system farther south of the Northland continues, so while precipitation probabilities of 10-30% get into central MN into NW WI late Sunday through Monday night, precipitation amounts have continued to trend southward. NBM probabilities for greater than 1" of snow with this early week system only look to be around 20% or less for southern portions of the Northland, highest over NW WI. Given forecast temperatures Sunday into early next week, this precipitation would likely be in the form of a rain/snow mix.
Warming Temperatures into Next Week:
We see temperatures gradually turn warmer this weekend into next week, with highs warming from the upper 30s to mid 40s this weekend to widespread 40s by mid next week. There is even some potential for some 50s to creep into the Northland late next week as a ridge builds overhead, but a lingering snowpack may lead to forecast temperatures needing to be lowered a few degrees until the snow melts completely. Some lingering light precipitation is possible into mid-next week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals through midday as winds become easterly. The chance for fog and low visibilities early this morning has decreased dramatically. An area of snow and rain pushes from west to east in the late afternoon into the evening bringing worsening conditions. At least MVFR expected by the end of the TAF period, with some pockets of IFR possible (and likely just beyond the TAF period). Should be mostly snow for INL, HIB, and DLH. Some rain/snow mixed possible at BRD with a low chance for freezing rain.
At HYR, precipitation type begins as rain, but freezing rain is possible later in the evening.
MARINE
Issued at 422 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
High pressure will advance eastward ahead of a developing clipper system this morning. Look for winds to veer northeasterly and easterly by this evening and gradually strengthen. Winds and waves will become hazardous for small craft near the Twin Ports this afternoon. Hazardous conditions will expand up the North Shore and South Shore this evening. As the clipper propagates east of the area Saturday, look for winds to back northwesterly and westerly with wind speeds and gusts diminishing. Wind speeds and gusts will increase again Sunday night and Monday as a pair of low pressure systems pass over the region. One system will east-southeast across northern Ontario while the other, slower and more potent, system passes east across the central Plains and Midwest. Conditions may become hazardous to small craft once again early next week.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ020-021.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ001>003.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ004-009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ141>143-146-147-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ144-145.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN | 1 mi | 53 min | NNW 1.9G | 30°F | 30.02 | 16°F | ||
PKBW3 | 7 mi | 53 min | SSW 1 | 15°F | 30.09 | 15°F | ||
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI | 37 mi | 73 min | SE 1.9G | 19°F | 30.06 | |||
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN | 56 mi | 73 min | NW 9.9G | 26°F | 30.06 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KDYT SKY HARBOR,MN | 4 sm | 17 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 23°F | 18°F | 79% | 30.06 | |
KSUW RICHARD I BONG,WI | 5 sm | 17 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 14°F | 10°F | 85% | 30.07 | |
KDLH DULUTH INTL,MN | 8 sm | 57 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 16°F | 10°F | 79% | 30.03 | |
KCOQ CLOQUET CARLTON COUNTY,MN | 22 sm | 17 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 12°F | 9°F | 85% | 30.03 |
Duluth, MN,
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