Friday, September22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beecher Falls, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 6:42PM Friday September 22, 2017 8:22 PM EDT (00:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:55AMMoonset 8:12PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beecher Falls, VT
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location: 46.8, -71.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 222231
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
631 pm edt Fri sep 22 2017

Synopsis
Tropical storm jose will remain southeast of cape
cod and will slowly weaken through this weekend while high
pressure both at the surface and upper atmosphere builds across
the region from the west.

Near term through Saturday
630pm update...

mostly clear as the Sun sets except for some lower clouds near
the coast. A quiet night in store. Cool, especially in areas
with good radiational cooling, but generally a bit warmer than
last night. Added patchy valley fog to the forecast since it
occurred last night and see no reason for it not to occur again
tonight. Also raised MAX temps a touch for Saturday due to
airmass being notably warmer than today, with today being pretty
warm in the first place.

Previous discussion...

strong high pressure will persist to the southwest of new
england and continue to build tonight into Saturday. Expect
clouds from jose to persist along coastal areas until late this
evening but skies over the remainder of the forecast area are
expected to remain mostly clear. Temperatures are expected to be
much warmer Saturday as high pressure to the southwest
continues to build.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
Models showed good run to run continuity from prev model runs
thru Sun erly aftn, but aftwrds, very poor continuity from late
sun aftn into erly next week. Chgs include an earlier back door
cold front from late Sun aftn across the N to Sun eve downeast.

Also, models indicate enough hi llvl dwpts upwards to mid to
upper 60s for possible isold to sct tstms Sun aftn and erly eve
across NRN and ERN ptns of the rgn as the front crosses thru, so
we added this to the fcst. Not enough confidence to mention any
enhanced wording due to relatively stable mid lvl lapse rates
and dry antecedent ground moisture that could result in more
mixing of slightly drier air from alf on sun, lowering aftn
dwpts and the potential of cnvctn initiation... So this fcst for
isold-sct tstms Sun aftn is a middle ground apch for now.

After mild ovrngt lows Sat ngt and erly morn patchy fog Sun morn
due to increasingly humid air, hi temps will apch or exceed
record hi temps at some lctns (see climate section of disc) as
fcst MAX aftn 925mb temps reach the the lower to mid 20s c.

With llvl cool advcn with NE to E winds Sun ngt, we removed the
mention of patchy fog late Sun ngt.

Mon will be ptly to msly sunny, but at this point, not as warm
as sun, although still sig abv normal for this tm of season.

Temps will climb more quickly toward hi temps Mon aftn as the
front returns back toward WRN ptns of the fa as a warm front
late in the day and Mon eve.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Longer range models are now indicating Tue to be dry and much
warmer than thought to be ystdy attm. For now, given the run to
run uncertainty of the models, we did raise hi temps
considerably for tue, but not as much as what current dtmnstc
12z models like the ECMWF and GFS are implying. We will adjust
hi temps Tue upwards in later updates based on a stable model
trend.

Otherwise, both the dtmnstc 12z GFS and ECMWF are also faster
by 6 to 9 hrs with the next major cold frontal system and
associated upper trof for later Wed into Thu morn than shown for
ystdy attm. We did raise hi temps a few deg f for Wed aftn ahead
of the leading edge of shwrs. Speaking of shwrs, there was
enough fcst sbcapes to mention aftn eve tstms across the N hlf
of the fa. Shwrs will cont late Wed ngt into Thu morn before
ending Thu aftn well behind the cold front, with NRN ptns of
the fa potentially receiving about a half inch downwards to a
quarter inch or less downeast. Temps will be definitely
returning to more normal values Thu ngt and Fri under mdtly
strong llvl cool advcn with sc cld cvr persisting longest across
the n.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Near term:VFR next 24 hours inland except for patchy valley
fog. For the terminals, mainly expect this to impact kpqi again.

Along the coast, expect MVFR ceilings at kbhb with the
potentoal of ifr Sat morning. Expect kbhb to improve toVFR in
the afternoon. For kbgr, tentatively think that tonight's
ceilings will stay a bit above MVFR levels, but something to
watch.

Short to long term: mainlyVFR all TAF sites with ifr vsbys and
clgs possible with fog late Tue ngt msly ovr downeast sites and
MVFR clgs and vsbys at any TAF site with any TSTM or heavier
shwrs later Wed aftn.

Marine
Near term:
have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids, however there
is still a strong inversion resulting from the relatively cold
sea surface temperature. Therefore have reduced the wind speeds
from the NAM by 20 percent to adjust for high bias. For waves:
currently long period swell from jose (6-7 feet 11 seconds) is
still entering the gulf of maine and is still the primary wave
system. This wave system will continue to subside tonight into
Saturday. Expect the wave spectrum to become more bi-modal later
tonight as long period swell from jose subsides and the
northeasterly wind wave system persists and may become the
primary wave group late tonight. Will use the nearshore wave
prediction system (nwps) to initialize the wave grids but will
lower model wave heights by 1 foot to adjust for high bias
resulting from cold sea surface temperature. Will extend the sca
until 0600z.

Short to long term term: initially no hdlns will be needed sat
ngt thru Sun ngt, but long pd swell WV hts will increase back
into the SCA range possibly as erly as Mon and cont thru mid
week as maria moves nwrd into the open atlc to E of cape
hatteras. Beach hi surf and rip current potential will likely
become high again by Tue aftn or so. Kept close to ww3 wv
guidance for fcst WV hts with WV pds fcst again in the 12 to 16
sec range.

Tides coastal flooding
Currently long period swell from jose which is running at 11
seconds 6-7 feet continues to enter the gulf of maine. Waves are
expected to to slowly subside tonight and Saturday.

Gerling hanson plots from nwps model indicate that the long
period wave group will fall below 5 feet 10 seconds late
tonight, so will extend the high surf advisory until 0600z
tonight.

Concern is that long period waves high impact in the surf zone,
and can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period
waves resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into
the ocean. Dangerous rip currents are also expected.

Some minor beach erosion is possible however runup, splashover,
flooding due to storm surge are not expected.

Climate
Record high temps are possible at bangor and houlton Saturday
afternoon and at multiple locations Sunday afternoon. Current
records for these dates are:
Saturday september 23rd
bangor... ... ..80 deg set in 1989
houlton... ... .84 deg set in 1965
Sunday september 24th
caribou... ... .80 deg set in 1958
bangor... ... ..88 deg set in 1930
houlton... ... .81 deg set in 1958
millinocket... 86 deg set in 1920

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... High surf advisory until 2 am edt Saturday for mez029-030.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Saturday for anz050>052.

Near term... Foisy mignone
short term... Vjn
long term... Vjn
aviation... Foisy mignone vjn
marine... Foisy mignone vjn
tides coastal flooding... Mignone
climate... Vjn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clayton Lake, ME90 mi66 minN 0 mi60°F-16°F4%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from 40B (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm22Calm223CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm23NE9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalm2CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm34424
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43--CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.