Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:24PM Friday March 22, 2019 9:08 AM CDT (14:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:31PMMoonset 7:16AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ147 Expires:201810032230;;193128 Fzus73 Kdlh 032159 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 459 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018 Lsz140>143-146-147-162-032230- 459 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Grand portage to grand marais mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... At 459 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 14 nm east of tofte safe harbor, to 7 nm northeast of raspberry island lighthouse, moving east at 60 knots. Locations impacted include... Beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, raspberry island lighthouse, sand island, sugar loaf cove, tofte safe harbor, and tofte. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && a tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4693 9026 4695 9099 4724 9136 4758 9088 4772 9055 4779 9029 4784 8966
LSZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield city, WI
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location: 46.86, -90.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 221123 aaa
afddlh
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service duluth mn
623 am cdt Fri mar 22 2019

Update
Issued at 623 am cdt Fri mar 22 2019
updated below for 12z aviation discussion.

Short term (today through Saturday)
issued at 325 am cdt Fri mar 22 2019
a closed upper low was moving through ontario at 07z, while high
pressure was in charge at the surface. Clouds associated with the
upper low and its area of vorticity diving through the western great
lakes, was clipping the eastern portion of the forecast area. A
fairly dry atmosphere was observed with dewpoint depressions from 6
to 14 degrees nearer the clouds. Not expecting any precipitation with
all of this dry air to overcome and have removed the mention from
early this morning. This is confirmed by dry model forecast
soundings.

The upper low will have moved far enough east by 12z this morning to
no longer have an affect on the region. Even though there will be
cold air advection occurring over the eastern portion of the
forecast area, no real impact expected. By afternoon, surface
ridging covers the region. Warm air advection is happening through
the afternoon and this allows MAX temps to reach into the upper 30s
to lower 40s.

Mid level and surface ridging remain over the area tonight and
Saturday. Neutral to weak warm air advection tonight will be offset
by good radiational cooling allowing min temps to drop into the
teens and lower 20s. The weak warm air advection continues on
Saturday with a very dry atmosphere in place. The potential for max
temps to warm into the 50s, similar to Thursday, is within reason.

Long term (Saturday night through Thursday)
issued at 325 am cdt Fri mar 22 2019
with the Sunday system looking weaker the closer we get to Sunday,
the long term looks to remain fairly quiet until turning more active
at the end of the period.

A cold front will approach the northland from the north Saturday
night and work across the area on Sunday. There isn't much moisture
with this front and latest model runs have kept the low across the
central plains further to south, meaning the front to the north
won't be able to tap into any additional moisture from the southerly
system. Based on this drier forecast and forecast soundings, have
removed the freezing drizzle across the far northern reaches of the
area for Saturday night. There could be spotty freezing drizzle, but
the window for this to occur looks pretty small before any
precipitation would change over to snow or sleet. A change over to
rain is then expected Sunday morning as temperatures warm before
changing back to snow Sunday evening as precipitation ends. Any
precipitation that does fall will be very light with only a few
hundredths of an inch of liquid being possible.

High pressure will then be in place for Monday and Tuesday before a
weak wave passes through late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a
chance for a few rain or snow showers. A more organized system will
then move into the upper midwest for Thursday and Friday. There are
significant model differences in regards to the timing and location
of system, but this looks like the next decent chance for rainfall
across the northland with perhaps some light snowfall at night.

Temperatures will cool down for Sunday and Monday behind the cold
front with highs only reaching into the 30s. Warmer air will then
return for the middle of the week with 50s expected for Wednesday
and Thursday. However, another cool down is expected heading into
the weekend in association with the storm system with highs in the
30s by Friday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 623 am cdt Fri mar 22 2019
high pressure will lead to clear skies andVFR conditions through
the period along with light and variable winds. There is a low
chance for some MVFR fog at kbrd and khib toward the end of the
taf period, but otherwise good flying conditions are expected
today and tonight.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 40 22 51 29 0 0 0 10
inl 41 20 54 26 0 0 0 20
brd 43 20 53 28 0 0 0 10
hyr 42 16 52 27 0 0 0 0
asx 38 20 54 28 0 0 0 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Bjh
short term... Gsf
long term... Bjh
aviation... Bjh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 16 mi68 min NE 19 G 21 31°F 1023.8 hPa (+3.7)20°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 30 mi88 min ENE 11 G 14 31°F 1021.3 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI22 mi15 minNE 810.00 miOvercast32°F25°F75%1024.2 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11SW16SW14SW14W14
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W11W9NW6--NW6NW8N9N6N5W5NW5NW6NW7N9E9NE5NE8
1 day agoSW7W6W4N10N10N9N7N7N8NE6NE4N3E3NE3CalmCalmSW3SW3SW5SW6SW6SW4SW6SW8
2 days agoSW7SW8SW14SW12SW13SW13
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SW13SW10SW10SW7S7SW10SW8SW11SW12--SW10SW13SW12W9SW9SW8SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.