Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 8:10PM Sunday August 20, 2017 6:46 AM CDT (11:46 UTC) Moonrise 3:41AMMoonset 6:32PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ147 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0015.000000t0000z-170722t0245z/ 937 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 21 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4697 9052 4711 9064 4717 9027 4699 9022 4687 9030 4683 9033 4681 9054 time...mot...loc 0236z 265deg 33kt 4710 9056 4698 9045 4680 9048
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ147 Expires:201707220246;;177287 FZUS73 KDLH 220237 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 937 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017 LSZ121-146-147-220246-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield city, WI
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location: 46.86, -90.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 200826
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
326 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017

Short term (today through Monday)
issued at 326 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
upper level and surface ridging covered the forecast area at
07z 2am. However, a cold front was just moving into northwest
minnesota and extended southwest into southeast north dakota. Mainly
cirrus was found over the area. A mid level deck of clouds was
beginning to develop just to the west of the forecast area ahead
of the front. Patchy fog has developed over the central and
eastern portions of the region. This fog is fairly shallow as
denoted by the rapid changes in visibility in the observations.

With the anticipated cloud cover spreading into the region, this
should preclude further fog development. The deepest surface
moisture convergence is located ahead of the cold front and just
ahead of the stratus. This is the case during the morning as the
cold front moves through northeast minnesota. This is confirmed by
the various models, including the short term hires models and
have a rain free morning forecast. In the afternoon, the models
disagree on where to develop showers and thunderstorms as the
front continues its march eastward through northwest wisconsin.

The ECMWF is the most robust with QPF over the entire area. The
gem NAM only have QPF over the tip of the arrowhead. The GFS has
qpf over the arrowhead, but also in the southeast corner of the
region. The arw nmm split the difference of the aforementioned
models. Have some small pops over the arrowhead early in the
afternoon, and in northwest wisconsin. Behind the front, high
pressure is building into the rest of the region.

The ECMWF appears overdone with additional activity across the
southeast portion of the region this evening. The NAM arw nmm gfs
are rain free. The gem is hinting at some activity near price
county. Used a blend and have small pops to account for any
lingering storms behind the departing cold front. Late tonight, high
pressure covers the region. Added some fog late tonight with a
mainly clear sky expected.

Monday morning will be rain free with the high pressure nearby. By
afternoon, a digging upper level trof approaches northwest minnesota
from canada. Meanwhile, an embedded impulse ahead of this trof moves
through southern minnesota into wisconsin. Varying degrees of
strength of the trof and the impulse affects the amount of QPF and
thus the pops. Used a blended approach to pops to resolve these
differences. Have thunder mentioned over the southeast corner of the
region. Not expecting thunder over the northwest zones as
instability is lacking with all models having 850mb li's above 0c
with marginal cape, less than 200 j kg.

Long term (Monday night through Saturday)
issued at 326 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
a few showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday night into
Tuesday, then a quieter pattern emerges for much of the upcoming
week.

A high amplitude mid-level trough of low pressure is forecast from
northern quebec southwestward into the upper midwest Monday
night. A few shortwave troughs will round the base of the
planetary wave and move into the upper midwest overnight. An area
of thunderstorms is expected over southern minnesota into central
and southern wisconsin and should move away from the northland
Monday night. The approaching shortwave troughs may provide
enough lift for scattered to isolated thunderstorms spreading
southeast across the northland. Portions of northwest wisconsin
may be clipped by the southern storms. Cyclonic flow aloft will
continue through Tuesday afternoon and may trigger a few diurnal
showers or storms, mainly across northern and northeast
minnesota. Deterministic solutions diverge around midweek with
the GFS bringing another shortwave trough diving into the region
while the other models have a subtler feature or nothing at all.

Leaned on the non-gfs members for sensible weather until late in
the week. A high amplitude ridge will build into the center of
the continent Thursday and Friday keeping weather fairly quiet.

By Friday afternoon, a convectively generated shortwave is
forecast to push into the northland from the plains. Since this
feature is dependent on the placement and intensity of
thunderstorms upstream Thursday night, confidence is somewhat
low. However, by Friday night 17 of the 42 GEFS members from the
00z and 12z runs feature precipitation in the northland, along
with all of the deterministic models. Have raised pops above the
consensus blend and broad-brushed slight chance and low-end
chance pops across the northland Friday night through Saturday.

It seems a more organized rain and thunderstorm threat will
arrive Saturday afternoon and evening as a more robust shortwave
trough moves out of the dakotas and canadian prairies and into
the upper midwest.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1236 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
fog is expected to develop and affect the terminals through 13z
this morning. Several sites may experience ifr lifr visibilities
due to lingering low level moisture and light winds. Conditions
should return toVFR by 13z. A cold front is advancing towards
the area, and I do not expect anything along the front until after
15z due to the lack of lift along the boundary itself. Some
models are hinting at some low clouds with MVFR bases in the 15z-
18z time range, but am not at all confident of this and have left
out for now. Have included someVFR cloud bases and vcsh groups
for the 19z to 01z time range for khyr for the chances for
showers.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 80 56 76 54 10 0 10 20
inl 77 49 75 49 0 0 20 20
brd 77 53 76 53 10 0 10 20
hyr 82 54 79 54 10 10 10 30
asx 84 56 79 56 10 10 10 20

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Gsf
long term... Huyck
aviation... Le


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 16 mi47 min S 7 G 8.9 65°F 1011.2 hPa (-0.0)61°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 30 mi67 min S 4.1 G 8 65°F 1011.9 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 36 mi47 min W 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 1010.8 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI22 mi54 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F57°F100%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW8W9W9SW7SW7W8W9W95W7SW7SW6S5SW7S7SW6S5S5S3SW3S3SW5SW4
1 day agoW7W7SW7W4NW643--W6SW5SW5W4W5W3SW5SW5SW8SW8SW9SW6W7SW6SW7SW7
2 days agoNE9NE9NE9NE8NE10N7N5N9N7N10N9NW5NW8NW8NW6NW7W6W8W6W7NW5W6W5W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.