Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 6:07PM Monday October 23, 2017 1:12 AM CDT (06:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:09AMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ147 816 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 24 2017
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 816 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm northwest of larsmont...to 8 nm southeast of superior harbor...moving northeast at 50 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island...split rock bay...raspberry island lighthouse... Castle danger...sand island...sugar loaf cove...tofte safe harbor... Twin points safe harbor...tofte...mouth of the little marais river... Beaver bay...mouth of the cross river...port wing safe harbor...brule point...herbster...apostle islands sea caves...larsmont...split rock lighthouse...red cliff...and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4689 9196 4715 9149 4754 9094 4762 9080 4687 9066 4682 9086 4688 9080 4693 9086 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9150 4666 9192
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ147 Expires:201709250215;;885660 FZUS73 KDLH 250116 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 816 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017 LSZ141>147-162-250215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield city, WI
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location: 46.86, -90.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 230517
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1217 am cdt Mon oct 23 2017

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 331 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017
at 330 pm, skies were clear across all but the far southeast
portion of the cwa. The rain showers that had moved through
northern wisconsin earlier had moved off to the east. With full
sunshine today, temperatures topped out in the lower 60s across
portions of the western cwa, with temperatures limited to the
upper 40s to around 50 in iron, price and ashland counties. Winds
were gusty from the west to southwest, especially west.

The focus for tonight will be the area of low pressure moving in
from the west northwest. This system was located in southern
saskatchewan as of mid afternoon, and was rapidly moving across
the southern canadian prairies. Rain showers had already developed
across portions of north dakota. Winds will switch to the
southwest ahead of this system overnight, as clouds and rain
showers spread back in from the west northwest.

Most of the showers will spread into the west northwest portion of
the CWA overnight, with a better chance of showers overtaking the
northland on Monday. Have raised pops into the likely range across
a larger area of northern minnesota on Monday, especially in the
area from the iron range northward. Rainfall amounts will
generally be under a quarter of an inch, although rain showers
could be fairly numerous by afternoon. Winds will switch to the
northwest from west to east as the low pulls off to the east, with
gusty winds into the 20 to 30 mph or higher at times. The cooler
air being pulled down behind the low will limit the high
temperature to 50 at international falls, and around 60 south.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 331 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017
this week will be much cooler than last week, that's for sure! Highs
will mostly be in the 40s. A weak canadian clipper could bring light
rain and snow, but our attention is focused on a much more potent
clipper later this week. This clipper over the latter half of the
week could bring the northland it's first accumulating snowfall.

Canada's cold air spigot will be on Monday night and Tuesday. The
850 hpa temperatures will drop several degrees and dip to -4 to -6
degrees celsius. The cold air advection and cloud cover Monday night
will mean gusty winds overnight and continuing into Tuesday. Much
drier air will filter into the northland Tuesday, so it should clear
out by the afternoon (except downwind of lake superior).

A surface ridge will quickly swing through the northland late
Tuesday and Tuesday night. A weak canadian clipper, though, will be
coming down into the northland (from northern saskatchewan and
central southern manitoba) by late Tuesday night. This clipper could
bring light rain and snow late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

It looks like any snowfall accumulating would be very light, a
dusting or so.

Our primary focus is on a much stronger clipper late this week. The
gfs, european, and canadian have been indicating an alberta clipper
will track across southern canada Wednesday and will likely move
into the northern plains and upper midwest Wednesday night and
Thursday. The GFS and european are in fairly good agreement on this
scenario, and continue to show this clipper slowing down and winding
up over the upper midwest and great lakes late Thursday through
early Saturday, before finally moving out of the region Saturday.

However, the latest canadian leaves some question on the track
because it's clipper tracks much farther north and more
progressively than the GFS and european. The GFS and european
indicate this clipper will have some relatively deep moisture, and
at the least bring rain to the northland. The GFS and european also
suggest there could be periods of accumulating snowfall over parts
of the northland while the storm passes through the region, and
potentially lake enhanced and lingering lake effect snow downwind of
lake superior in northern wisconsin. The canadian track though will
barely brings any rain or snow to the northland, maybe a dusting
across the canadian border area. The gist is this could bring the
northland it's first snow, or might not at all. It's too early to
speculate on snowfall amounts, but we will be providing more details
with subsequent forecasts.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1216 am cdt Mon oct 23 2017
a trough will move over the northland tonight, continue east
Monday and clear the area Monday night. Clouds have thickened this
evening and will continue to do so into Monday. There will be a
chance for showers tonight into Monday, highest over northern
areas. Ceilings will lower fromVFR to MVFR Monday afternoon into
Monday evening for most areas as colder air moves in on northwest
flow. The wind will be southerly today then turn west then
northwest on Monday into Monday evening. Winds will increase in
strength Monday afternoon into the evening.

Low level wind shear will occur for a time but weaken and shift east
overnight.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 43 55 35 43 30 40 30 10
inl 43 51 30 42 60 60 20 0
brd 45 54 35 45 50 50 10 0
hyr 40 58 36 45 20 40 50 30
asx 44 59 38 46 20 40 60 40

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Gale watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for
lsz121-140>143-146>148.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm cdt this afternoon for lsz140-
141.

Short term... Dap
long term... Grochocinski
aviation... Melde


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 16 mi72 min S 11 G 15 54°F 1011.3 hPa (-1.0)38°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 30 mi32 min SSW 7 G 12 52°F 1011.2 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 36 mi32 min WSW 5.1 G 6 49°F 1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI22 mi19 minVar 310.00 miOvercast50°F37°F63%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS13
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2 days agoS6S5S3S4S4S4S9S11S10S9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.