Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday January 17, 2019 2:44 AM CST (08:44 UTC) Moonrise 1:33PMMoonset 3:48AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ147 Expires:201810032230;;193128 Fzus73 Kdlh 032159 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 459 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018 Lsz140>143-146-147-162-032230- 459 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Grand portage to grand marais mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... At 459 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 14 nm east of tofte safe harbor, to 7 nm northeast of raspberry island lighthouse, moving east at 60 knots. Locations impacted include... Beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, raspberry island lighthouse, sand island, sugar loaf cove, tofte safe harbor, and tofte. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && a tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4693 9026 4695 9099 4724 9136 4758 9088 4772 9055 4779 9029 4784 8966
LSZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield city, WI
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location: 46.86, -90.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 170546
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1146 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019

Update
Issued at 1143 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019
updated for the 06z aviation discussion.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 312 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019
northwest flow aloft will affect the forecast area tonight and
Thursday. Meanwhile, high pressure will be in charge at the surface.

Even with this setup, will be hard pressed to generate lake effect
snow showers along the higher terrain areas of the south shore of
lake superior, as moisture is sparse through Thursday morning. Model
differences with the handling of an elongated area of vorticity
moving along the international border Thursday. Have opted for small
pops from late morning through early afternoon. Will also have a
gradual increase in pops along the higher terrain of the south shore
of lake superior Thursday afternoon. This is in regard to the flow
turning west northwest and a small pocket of cold air advection. Any
amounts will be light and less than one half inch.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 312 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019
the main concern in the extended is the dangerously cold wind chills
expected Thursday night through the weekend. The snowbelt region of
northwest wisconsin will see lake effect snow chances from Thursday
night into Sunday night.

A ridge will build into southern portions of british columbia and
alberta. At the surface high pressure will build into central
portions of canada and nudge into the upper mississippi river valley
Thursday night. With mostly clear skies and winds around 5 mph
expect strong radiational cooling. Bumped down forecast low
temperatures in comparison to the previous forecast. Lows range from
near zero to 20 below zero along the international border. Winds are
borderline at this point in time, but a wind chill advisory may be
needed.

The high will continue building into the region on Friday, while a
low develops across the southern plains. The low across the south
will bring some cloud cover to southern portions of the cwa, while
mostly clear skies are anticipated along the international border.

The arctic high will continue building into the upper mississippi
river valley through the weekend and advect very cold 850 hpa air
due to northwesterly flow. Most of the weekend expect -15 to -20
degrees celsius air aloft to advect in. Expect the coldest
temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning with 850 hpa values
between -20 and -25 degrees celsius advecting in. Overnight lows
range from the single digits below zero to the 20s below zero
Saturday morning and Sunday morning. Wind chill values of 15 to 45
below zero are anticipated. Wind chill advisories and warnings will
likely be needed this weekend. Through the weekend favorable
northwest flow, warm lake superior temperatures and very cold air
aloft will bring a prolonged period of lake effect snow showers to
the snow belt region of northwest wisconsin. Highs Friday through
Sunday range from the teens above zero to the single digits below
zero.

The arctic high will build into the central great lakes late Sunday
night into Monday. As winds aloft shift lake effect snow showers
along the south shore of lake superior will come to an end. A
shortwave will dig into southern portions of manitoba and
saskatchewan on Monday. This will bring increasing cloud cover and
widespread chances of light snow. Flow aloft will gradually become
southwesterly and advect warm air into the region. Temperatures will
rebound next week with highs in the teens above zero on Monday.

After Monday deterministic guidance diverges on how a trough digs in
across the intermountain west plains. This could bring the forecast
area snow from a plains low, but at this point in time run-to-run
and model-to-model solutions are too inconsistent.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1143 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019
a stratus deck will move into the region from the west-northwest
bringing MVFR CIGS to brd, inl and hib approximately between 14z and
20z. At the time of issuance, there are areas of lower end MVFR ifr
cigs embedded within the stratus deck so will wait and see if the
lower CIGS will advect in or lift by tomorrow morning. Also
tomorrow morning, possible light snow showers could affect inl.

Vfr conditions prevail at all sites by tomorrow afternoon.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh -2 15 -11 4 0 0 0 0
inl -10 8 -20 -6 0 10 0 0
brd -3 14 -11 5 0 0 0 0
hyr 4 21 -6 9 0 10 0 0
asx 3 20 0 9 0 20 20 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Kc
short term... Gsf
long term... Wl
aviation... Kc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 16 mi45 min S 5.1 G 6 15°F 1025.1 hPa (-1.1)7°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 30 mi65 min SSW 8 G 8.9 2°F 1022.7 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI22 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair-3°F-7°F82%1025.2 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------W5SW4SW4S4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4Calm
1 day agoSW4SW6S7SW8S9SW13SW13SW10SW18
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2 days agoSW8W6SW5W6W4SW6SW6SW6W4NW4NW4W6W3W5NW6W4SW5W3CalmCalmCalmW3SW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.