Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornucopia, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 4:21PM Sunday December 10, 2017 11:53 PM CST (05:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:51PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 816 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 24 2017
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 816 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm northwest of larsmont...to 8 nm southeast of superior harbor...moving northeast at 50 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island...split rock bay...raspberry island lighthouse... Castle danger...sand island...sugar loaf cove...tofte safe harbor... Twin points safe harbor...tofte...mouth of the little marais river... Beaver bay...mouth of the cross river...port wing safe harbor...brule point...herbster...apostle islands sea caves...larsmont...split rock lighthouse...red cliff...and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4689 9196 4715 9149 4754 9094 4762 9080 4687 9066 4682 9086 4688 9080 4693 9086 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9150 4666 9192
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 Expires:201709250215;;885660 FZUS73 KDLH 250116 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 816 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017 LSZ141>147-162-250215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI
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location: 46.9, -91.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 110539
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1139 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017

Update
Issued at 939 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017
light snow occurring in northwest minnesota and moving east.

Current forecast is now on track.

Update issued at 710 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017
slowed down the arrival of the snow by a few more hours again.

Reflectivities seen on north dakota radars is just starting to
reach the ground. Made some adjustments based on these trends.

Update issued at 520 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017
the system due to affect the forecast area tonight is still in
canada as of 5pm. A warm front was approaching the red river
valley with plenty of mid and high clouds ahead of this system.

Best forcing is still off in the western dakotas and have delayed
the onset of the snow by a few hours. Rest of the forecast is on
track.

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 356 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017
the main concern in the short term is the fast moving clipper that
is forecast to move through tonight and early Monday. We can see
this clipper taking shape over northern saskatchewan on satellite
imagery, producing precipitation there according to the canadian
radar network. There is a mixture of rain and snow, and where snow
is falling visibilities of less than a mile have been reported.

The surface low is located near la ronge, well north of saskatoon
canada. A warm front extends southeast from the low to eastern
north dakota before trailing into southwest minnesota. This front
to ease to the east somewhat tonight, but not enough to bring
temperatures above freezing as the clipper slides southeast across
the forecast area tonight and early Monday. The warm air advection
wing tonight and trailing wrap around precipitation Monday to
bring a short period of snow to the region between midnight
tonight and noon Monday. The heaviest precipitation to fall in
about a 3 hour period mostly tonight ahead of the surface low
where the frontogenesis band is strongest. This is a fairly potent
clipper, but nothing extraordinary and am expecting a quick 1 to 3
inches of snow laid out across the forecast area. The timing of
the snowfall is going to make the Monday morning commute more
difficult. Most of the snow should be on the ground by 6 am, which
is likely to produce slippery road conditions. Though not
convenient, thresholds are not quite there for a winter weather
advisory and have held off on that for now and am going to beef up
wording in hwo and the weather story, and will be issuing an sps
for the snowfall to hopefully raise awareness of this clipper.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 356 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017
long term forecast remains on track with several periods of light
snow and cool temperatures.

Meridional flow aloft will continue Monday night. Arctic air
advection and clearing skies and fresh snowpack from Monday's
clipper should yield low temperatures on either side of zero.

Highs on Tuesday will be cool as well with readings in the single
digits northeast to the low 20s southwest. A shortwave trough is
forecast to dive southeastward out of the canadian rockies and
into the central plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. While that
trough won't affect the northland directly, it will change the
upper flow pattern northwesterly. Deterministic guidance is split
in handling the next shortwave which will affect our area
Wednesday. The GFS is a little faster and stronger with the
trough and associated vort MAX and brings a swath of 1 to 3
inches of snow to northeast minnesota and northwest wisconsin.

The gem and ECMWF are stronger with the western shortwave and
bring lower snow chances to the northland. A better chance of
light snow arrives Wednesday night into Thursday. All of the long
range models bring some accumulation to the area. GFS brings the
higher amounts once again with several more inches possible.

Another pattern shift to a progressive mode is indicated late
this week into next weekend. While the details differ between
models, the gfs, ecmwf, and gem all feature a pattern shift. The
gfs and ECMWF bring an alberta clipper through the northland
Friday night and Saturday while the gem is weaker and farther
north. Given the timing differences, even between the GFS and
ecmwf, continued the earlier trend of chance pops Friday and
Saturday. The pattern shift late this week will also bring
slightly warmer temperatures to the region. Look for highs on
Friday in the middle teens northeast to the upper 20s southwest.

Highs on Saturday could reach the freezing mark along over our
southern CWA with middle to upper 20s in the north.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1139 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017
light snow will overspread the terminals through the first few
hours of the forecast. This is in response to a powerful vorticity
maxima moving southeast through nd at the start of the forecast.

A mix ofVFR and MVFR CIGS initially, with MVFR ifr CIGS and
vsbys in the vicinity of band of moderate snow. The snow will end
from north to south after 12z as the vort MAX and its associated
surface low move past the terminals. Gusty winds are expected
behind the surface low along with an improvement toVFR.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 10 25 -1 14 100 90 0 0
inl 3 19 -6 11 90 10 0 0
brd 19 30 6 21 100 30 0 10
hyr 9 29 1 14 100 70 10 0
asx 7 28 7 15 90 90 10 20

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Gale watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
lsz121-146>148.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Monday to 4 am cst Tuesday for
lsz121-145>148.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm Monday to 4 am cst Tuesday for
lsz140>144.

Update... Gsf
short term... Le
long term... Huyck
aviation... Gsf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 21 mi53 min SSE 5.1 G 6 22°F 1015.8 hPa (-1.8)12°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 29 mi52 min N 5.1 G 6 16°F 1014.9 hPa
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 40 mi73 min 14°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI25 mi60 minS 310.00 miFair8°F5°F87%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW9SW8SW4SW4W5W6W4W3NW6N10N9N8NW5N7NW6N5N4S3S4S4SW3SW4S3
1 day agoN7N11N15
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NW9NW8NW7NW3W10W7W6SW6S4S5S4S8SW8SW9S10
2 days agoSW10SW8W9W10W8W6W8W6NW6W4NW7W8W5W4SW8SW7SW3S5SW3CalmCalmCalmNW3N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.