Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornucopia, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 9:08PM Monday June 26, 2017 12:23 PM CDT (17:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:16AMMoonset 10:08PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 700 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 17 2017
.an area of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... At 659 pm cdt...radar showed an area of Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds to around 33 knots...half inch hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from near twin points safe harbor...to 9 nm northwest of port wing safe harbor...moving east at 25 knots. Locations impacted include... Herbster...sand island...and apostle islands sea caves. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect wind gusts up to 33 knots...locally higher waves...cloud to water lightning strikes...small hail...and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4691 9156 4714 9137 4715 9073 4691 9094 4682 9132
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 Expires:201706180045;;398690 FZUS73 KDLH 180000 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 700 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017 LSZ143-146-147-162-180045-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI
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location: 46.9, -91.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 261213
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
713 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017

Update
Issued at 713 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017
update for the new 12z aviation discussion below.

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 420 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017
warmer weather will finally work its way into the area today and
tomorrow, as the upper low that has kept us in cool northwest flow
will move slowly east of the area. Today the trough will be far
enough east to allow a surface ridge to slide down to southwestern
minnesota by this afternoon. The eastern forecast area will still
have northwest flow and chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms, but the western forecast area will have more
sunshine and less of a chance for precipitation. High temperatures
today to be significantly warmer than yesterday, with most areas
getting into the middle 60s to around 70. This morning we have a
few locations in the upper 30s, but some modification of the
airmass today and tonight should keep temperatures in the 40s most
locations overnight tonight, despite the ridge shifting over the
top of the forecast area. Tuesday the ridge axis shifts to over
and east of the forecast area, allowing winds to finally turn more
southwesterly by afternoon. We will also be looking at more
sunshine and with warm air advection beginning to set up aloft,
temperatures will rise into the 70s for most locations. The day
should start out cloud free, but the strong warm air advection due
to push in Tuesday night will produce increasing high clouds
during the afternoon hours, and should keep us from getting much
warmer than those 70s.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)
issued at 438 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017
summary: several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely
across the northland from Tuesday night through the weekend. A few
storms may be strong to severe Wednesday afternoon and evening
over southern portions of the cwa.

The northern plains upper level ridge will flatten Tuesday night
and Wednesday as a shortwave trough moves across the dakotas and
into the upper midwest. Southerly flow in the low and mid-levels
ahead of the approaching trough will pump additional moisture and
warmth into the northland setting the stage for several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. Guidance is in better agreement this
morning, but has trended the surface low farther south than
earlier runs. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into
the northland Tuesday night and diminish in coverage and intensity
early Wednesday. Showers and storms should redevelop Wednesday
afternoon as the surface low advances eastward to our south. That
southerly track will limit the threat of strong to severe storms
to the far southern portions of the cwa. There's also a chance
rain and isolated thunderstorms from the overnight convection
Tuesday night may continue and drift south during the day
Wednesday, further reducing the severe weather risk. There will be
ample moisture for moderate to heavy rain with the storms and wpc
has included areas along the north shore to duluth and all of
northwest wisconsin in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.

The upper level trough will slowly push eastward on Thursday.

Rain chances will decrease from west to east Thursday afternoon
and evening. Model solutions begin to diverge Thursday evening
with the handling of the next upper trough moving toward the upper
midwest. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms seem likely
from late Thursday night through the weekend, but timing and
location of the precipitation varies from model to model. A blend
of the deterministic guidance yields low "chance" pops at most,
and we have elected to stick close to the blend for now.

With active weather continuing and a quasi-zonal to northwesterly
flow pattern aloft, temperatures will continue to trend near to
below normal through the long term.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 713 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017
the persistent upper trough which has loitered over the region
for the past several days will move out of the area today. The
area of light rain associated with a compact upper low over
northern wisconsin will drift southeastward this morning. Expect
rain showers to end at hyr by 14z. Cyclonic flow aloft and
continued cool air advection in the mid-levels will support
scattered rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon. Moisture is somewhat limited, so showers will be very
light. Winds will become gusty until this evening. Areas of fog
are not out of the question tonight. With the deep mixing today
and a drier airmass in general, confidence in fog development is
low. Should fog develop, hyr is most likely to see reduced
visibility after 27.08z.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 68 49 74 54 40 0 0 50
inl 68 47 74 55 10 0 10 40
brd 69 47 76 59 0 0 0 60
hyr 68 46 76 56 70 20 0 30
asx 68 49 76 54 100 10 10 30

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Huyck
short term... Le
long term... Huyck
aviation... Huyck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 21 mi84 min SW 13 G 15 52°F 1019.6 hPa (+0.0)49°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 29 mi44 min WSW 13 G 15 50°F 1018.6 hPa
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 40 mi104 min NW 5.1 G 8 54°F 1019.6 hPa
45028 - Western Lake Superior 42 mi34 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 54°F 52°F1 ft50°F
45027 - North of Duluth, MN 47 mi34 min S 7.8 G 9.7 55°F 50°F49°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI25 mi31 minVar 610.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F50°F65%1020 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6NW15
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NW6W5NW6NW8NW9W7W6NW7W7NW3NW4346
1 day agoW8W9W8W12W10
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W8W7W8W7W6NW4W3W4W4W6W5W5W3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW13
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W11W11W7W8W11W11W8W12W9W8W7SW5W8W11W9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.