Thursday, April26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornucopia, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:14PM Thursday April 26, 2018 8:33 AM CDT (13:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:26PMMoonset 3:47AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 816 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 24 2017
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 816 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm northwest of larsmont...to 8 nm southeast of superior harbor...moving northeast at 50 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island...split rock bay...raspberry island lighthouse... Castle danger...sand island...sugar loaf cove...tofte safe harbor... Twin points safe harbor...tofte...mouth of the little marais river... Beaver bay...mouth of the cross river...port wing safe harbor...brule point...herbster...apostle islands sea caves...larsmont...split rock lighthouse...red cliff...and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4689 9196 4715 9149 4754 9094 4762 9080 4687 9066 4682 9086 4688 9080 4693 9086 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9150 4666 9192
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 Expires:201709250215;;437175 FZUS73 KDLH 250116 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 816 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017 LSZ141>147-162-250215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI
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location: 46.9, -91.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 261202
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
702 am cdt Thu apr 26 2018

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 323 am cdt Thu apr 26 2018
an active weather pattern will develop over the northland for
today and Friday, driven by a few mid-level shortwave troughs,
which will bring some measurable precipitation for tonight and
Friday. For this morning, a positively tilted mid-level trough and
an associated cold front will dive southeastward over the region.

Some decent lift will accompany the front due to enhanced low-
level fgen and a channel of positive vorticity advection (pva)
along the trough. However, the moisture profile is the big
question regarding precipitation. Both the NAM and rap model
soundings indicate only a thin corridor of deeper saturation as
the cold front moves through, so the window for precipitation is
rather small. Still think that some chances of precipitation with
this front is reasonable given the lift, so made only small
adjustments to the pops to better capture the progression of the
front. Precip type should be mostly in the form of rain, but some
snow may mix in along the international border. Only small rain
accumulations are expected with this front, with up to 0.05"
possible. Otherwise, dry air will quickly move in behind the
front and bring clearing skies from west to east by the afternoon.

Small chances of rain will linger over portions of northwest
wisconsin this afternoon as the front passes by. Northwest winds
will also pick up behind the cold front, with gusts between 15 to
25 mph. Highs today will range from the upper 40s over the
minnesota arrowhead to the middle and upper 50s elsewhere.

A very short break from the clouds and precipitation will occur this
evening before a more potent shortwave trough will quickly dive
southward from manitoba canada overnight. This shortwave looks to
have better lift associated with it, per the thaler QG omega progs.

Deeper moisture will persist for longer with this shortwave compared
to the one for this morning, so precipitation efficiency will be
more robust with this second wave. The thermal profiles indicate a
mix of precip types, primarily a mix of rain and snow due to 925
mb low-level temperatures dipping to near zero degrees. The best
chances of snow accumulation will be over the minnesota arrowhead
and points southeast into northwest wisconsin. Forecast snow
accumulation through Friday morning will be light, with only up to
one inch possible, which is consistent with the SREF ensemble
mean values in these areas, although these values may even be too
high still due to above freezing surface temperatures per mndot
rwis stations. Some lingering PVA and low-level saturation will
linger some chances of precipitation into Friday afternoon, when
precipitation types will be in the form of rain. There may even
be a rumble of thunder in northwest wisconsin due to increased
instability due to steepening low-level lapse rates. MUCAPE values
are generally around 50 j kg, so only put in a slight chance of
thunder in the forecast.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)
issued at 313 am cdt Thu apr 26 2018
the strong shortwave will continue to move southeast across the
western great lakes on Friday night, with precipitation generally
ending by Friday evening. Surface high pressure and upper level
ridging will then move into the region on Saturday and Sunday,
bringing much warmer temperatures and dry weather for the upcoming
weekend. This upper level ridge will then start to move eastward
across the great lakes on Sunday night and Monday. Southwest flow
from a broad upper level trough in the western states will begin to
send shortwave energy, and increasing moisture into the region by
Monday. As a result, we should see a chance of precipitation from
Sunday night into Wednesday of next week. A few thunderstorms will
even be possible during that time. Highs on Saturday will generally
be in the 50s, with temperatures reaching the 60s on Sunday. The
warm weather will continue on Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the
60s to lower 70s. Lows will be in the 20s across the northland on
Friday night, but warm into the 30s to 40s for much of the remainder
of the long term period.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 657 am cdt Thu apr 26 2018
a cold front will continue to move southeast across the northland
today, bringing a few showers and a period of cloud cover as the
front moves through. After the front moves southeast of the area,
we will see a bit of a break this late afternoon and evening,
before a strong shortwave moves southeast across the region. This
system could bring some rain or snow showers, especially across
the northeast half of the region. Some local MVFR conditions will
be possible in the vicinity of the front today, and close to the
surface low tonight.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 55 33 47 28 40 40 30 10
inl 52 34 47 26 20 40 30 10
brd 59 38 54 30 20 10 10 0
hyr 58 29 51 25 30 40 40 10
asx 56 29 45 26 40 50 60 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Jts
long term... Dap
aviation... Dap


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 21 mi94 min SW 11 G 13 44°F 1009.4 hPa (-1.0)29°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 29 mi34 min WSW 8 G 11 41°F 1008.1 hPa (-1.0)
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 40 mi54 min S 7 G 12 47°F 1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI25 mi41 minSW 710.00 miFair48°F30°F52%1010.3 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE43CalmCalm33NW5N5N7N5N5CalmW3SW3W4SW7S6SW5SW6S6S7SW7SW8SW7
1 day agoNE11NE12NE12NE9NE11NE10NE5E5SE6S5SE3NE3N7N8N10N7NE5N6CalmNW3CalmCalmSW3W3
2 days agoSW5SW4W7W8--W8SW5SW8SW4S6SW3S3S6S7SW4W7SW7W6W3CalmNE12N8NE8NE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.