Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornucopia, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 5:43PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 9:32 AM CST (15:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:28AMMoonset 10:55PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 816 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 24 2017
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 816 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm northwest of larsmont...to 8 nm southeast of superior harbor...moving northeast at 50 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island...split rock bay...raspberry island lighthouse... Castle danger...sand island...sugar loaf cove...tofte safe harbor... Twin points safe harbor...tofte...mouth of the little marais river... Beaver bay...mouth of the cross river...port wing safe harbor...brule point...herbster...apostle islands sea caves...larsmont...split rock lighthouse...red cliff...and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4689 9196 4715 9149 4754 9094 4762 9080 4687 9066 4682 9086 4688 9080 4693 9086 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9150 4666 9192
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 Expires:201709250215;;885660 FZUS73 KDLH 250116 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 816 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017 LSZ141>147-162-250215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI
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location: 46.9, -91.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 201223
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
623 am cst Tue feb 20 2018

Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 339 am cst Tue feb 20 2018
the short-term forecast period continues to feature light to
sometimes heavy snowfall across the northland through the morning
hours today, diminishing from southwest to northeast by this
afternoon. Current radar imagery indicates a band of lake effect
snow from sand island, wi west towards the twin PORTS and towards
cloquet, sawyer, and cromwell in carlton county. Moreover, a swath
of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times continues from
southern cass and crow wing counties north-northeast towards
itasca and koochiching counties due to a mid-level impulse lifting
northeast. The lake effect band is due to a northeasterly fetch
over lake superior, as indicated by the 20.00z guidance. The
1000-850 mb layer winds are progged to shift more easterly as the
morning wears on, which appears reasonable given the current band
of lake effect snow is shifting slightly to the north as of this
afd issuance. Because the band is lifting north, decided to
remove douglas county from the winter storm warning, replacing
with a winter weather advisory, but keeping the carlton
county southern st. Louis county zone in the warning due to more
lake effect snow expected. No other changes to the winter weather
headlines have been made. Generally, the swath of heavier snow
across our northwestern counties could bring another 1 to 4
inches of snow across our northern half of our northeast minnesota
counties through this afternoon. Also, the threat for icing
remains over northwest wisconsin this morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing possible due to freezing rain. Price county continues to
remain in the most favorable area for icing. The models are in
pretty good agreement with diminishing the precipitation as the
surface low that's driving this activity eventually moves off to
the northeast over the central great lakes. Drier air moves into
the region and winds turn more westerly, diminishing the threat
for significant lake effect snow, although some lingering light
snow will be possible over the bayfield peninsula region this
evening.

Overall, much drier conditions will develop overnight through
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. The
main area of focus for this time frame will be temperatures
tonight, as radiational cooling is expected as skies clear out
and winds weaken. Overnight lows should drop into the single
digits below zero over northwest wisconsin, with negative teens
over the northwestern one-third of the forecast area. Wind chill
values could drop into wind chill advisory criteria for a time
Wednesday morning, but held off on issuing headlines as the
duration of the wind chill values are a bit more marginal than in
past cases for advisories, so will let the day shift have another
look at these wind chill values.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday)
issued at 339 am cst Tue feb 20 2018
high pressure will bring quiet weather to the northland for the
start of the long term period, with dry weather expected Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are expected to fall
into the single digits below zero across the region. Would not be
surprised to see some teens below zero across northeast
minnesota. The dry weather will be short-lived, though, as another
low pressure system moves into the region in southwest flow.

Clouds will increase on Thursday, with some light snow, or a
wintry mix moving in Thursday afternoon. The best chance of
precipitation will be on Thursday night, where several inches of
snow will be possible. Northwest wisconsin has the best chance of
seeing some freezing rain. At this point, it appears this system
has the potential to bring advisory-type precipitation to the
region, although we will need to keep an eye on it. The ECMWF and
gfs are actually in decent agreement in terms of sensible weather.

High pressure will then build back into the region for Friday and
Friday night. The next system should move in on Saturday and
Saturday night. The GFS has a much stronger system moving across
the great lakes region, while the ECMWF has a much weaker low. The
best chance of precipitation with this system will be in the
eastern portion of the cwa. The forecast becomes more difficult to
pin down over the weekend and into early next week. The models
are indicating some dramatic differences, and as a result,
confidence is low in any particular solution. Highs throughout the
period will generally be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, with
some mid 20s possible at times across northeast minnesota.

Overnight lows will largely be in the single digits and teens,
with the exception of Wednesday night.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 621 am cst Tue feb 20 2018
low pressure will continue to impact the northland today, although
it will gradually lose its grip on the region as the day wears on.

Lifr ifr conditions will be fairly widespread at the beginning of
the period, with improvement to MVFRVFR as the day wears on. By
tonight, we should seeVFR conditions across the entire region.

Snow will be most widespread early, with gradual improvement
throughout the day.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 19 -4 19 -2 100 0 0 0
inl 12 -12 18 -8 100 10 0 0
brd 17 -9 19 -4 80 0 0 0
hyr 24 -3 20 -4 80 10 0 0
asx 24 3 22 1 90 10 0 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory until noon cst today for wiz001>004-
006>009.

Mn... Winter weather advisory until noon cst today for mnz010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>036-038.

Winter storm warning until noon cst today for mnz037.

Ls... None.

Short term... Jts
long term... Dap
aviation... Dap


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 21 mi32 min NNE 19 G 21 19°F 1012.7 hPa (-0.8)17°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 29 mi52 min NNE 8.9 G 15 13°F 1012.5 hPa
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 40 mi52 min Calm G 1 22°F 1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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NE9
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SW12
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W9
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NE1
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI25 mi39 minNNW 52.00 miFog/Mist22°F19°F92%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN21
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NE15NE15
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NE16NE20
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NE16NE15NE17NE15NE14NE11NE9NE10NE7N5
1 day agoSE5E7E9E8N7NE10N9N12N12N9N7N10N11N15N15N14NE14N14N14N14NE14NE15N16
G22
NE14
2 days agoSW9SW14SW13SW10W12
G18
W15
G22
W13W9W13
G19
W10W8W12W10W8W7SW6S3S3SW6S4S5SE4SE3E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.