Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornucopia, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:13PM Friday August 18, 2017 11:28 AM CDT (16:28 UTC) Moonrise 1:28AMMoonset 4:59PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 732 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 8 2017
.a cluster of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 730 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms... Capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located 10 nm southeast of french river...or 12 nm west of port wing safe harbor... Moving southeast at 20 knots. Locations impacted include... Larsmont...duluth lift bridge channel...port wing safe harbor...brule point...herbster...and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4707 9163 4685 9107 4682 9118 4683 9121 4673 9151 4668 9184 4678 9215
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 Expires:201708090100;;088496 FZUS73 KDLH 090032 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 732 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017 LSZ143>146-162-090100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI
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location: 46.9, -91.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 181222 aaa
afddlh
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service duluth mn
722 am cdt Fri aug 18 2017

Update
Issued at 721 am cdt Fri aug 18 2017
update for new 12z aviation discussion below.

Short term (today through Saturday)
issued at 421 am cdt Fri aug 18 2017
a chance for isolated scattered showers storms today across
northern minnesota and parts of northwest wisconsin under partly
sunny skies today, then warmer and mostly sunny on Saturday.

On the synoptic scale a mid-level shortwave will subtly deepen as
it moves from southern manitoba southeast across the upper
midwest today. With clearing skies today, diurnal heating will
lead to CU developing across the region today, and with the wave
coming across leading to broad-scale lift (or at least a lack of
strong subsidence) there will be at least isolated showers
developing this afternoon. Instability on the order of around 1000
j kg SBCAPE may lead to some brief thunderstorms, though weak
winds through the column (nothing stronger than about 25 knots)
will lead to short-duration storms. Otherwise northwest winds
today with highs in the 70s.

Tonight the afternoon CU clears out and another round of fog is
expected to develop away from lake superior. Lows upper 50s to low
60s.

Warmer Saturday as a mid-level ridge building across the great
plains leads to broad-scale subsidence, though scattered diurnally
driven afternoon "fair weather" CU expected. Highs around 80.

Long term (Saturday night through Thursday)
issued at 421 am cdt Fri aug 18 2017
main concerns for the long-term involve cloud cover and
precipitation chances Sunday evening through Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure is forecast over the midwest Saturday
evening as the mid-level pattern transitions to quasi-zonal flow.

Surface low pressure over northern manitoba will advance eastward
ahead of a shortwave trough over the western canadian prairies. A
cool front will trail south into the northern plains and upper
midwest and move eastward as well. Convergence along the frontal
boundary may be sufficient to generate a few showers or
thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday morning. Held onto mainly
slight chance pops, with a few pockets of low-end chance pops.

There are several differences between deterministic models with
the 00z packages, and confidence is not especially high in any
particular location receiving rain. The frontal boundary will
stall out to our south and eventually move northward as a warm
front Sunday night and Monday.

A southern stream shortwave trough will move through the four
corners region and into the western plains with lee cyclogenesis
over southeast colorado Sunday and Sunday night. The low pressure
at the surface and aloft will bring clouds and rain showers north
into the region. There are some convective elements in the GFS and
nam solutions which result in lower confidence. There is a
potential for an MCS to develop Sunday afternoon evening in
nebraska or south dakota, which would then ride east near the warm
front and into minnesota and eventually wisconsin. Considering
the difficulty in resolving storm-scale features 3.5 days before
the event support sticking with a consensus approach to pops and
precip at this time. Have lowered MAX temps a few degrees below
the consensus blends Monday as a 3-hour window of the upcoming
solar eclipse will have its greatest affects during peak heating.

Further nudges cooler may be needed with the next several forecast
cycles. Several deterministic models point to a potential for
brief clearing during the early afternoon Monday, which would
permit viewing some of the eclipse for portions of the northland.

A progressive northern stream shortwave trough will move through
the northern rockies and into region Monday night. Rain chances
increase once again Monday night and Tuesday morning as that
trough moves through. For the remainder of the week, an omega
blocking pattern evolves with anchoring low pressure over eastern
and western canada and a high amplitude ridge over the center of
the continent. The northland will be on the edge of the
northwesterly flow aloft and the ridge to the west. Precipitation
chances will be low and temperatures will trend near normal.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 721 am cdt Fri aug 18 2017
MVFR ifr lifr conditions will gradually improve toVFR later this
morning. An area of low pressure will advance generally eastward
across central minnesota with high overcast expected across the
area above the lower ceilings. A few rain showers are possible and
a rumble or two of thunder isn't out of the question either.

Included vcts at hib, brd, and inl this afternoon, where the best
chance of storms will be found. Skies will gradually clear tonight
which should allow for radational cooling and fog formation. Have
some lower visibility with fog at hib, inl, brd, and hyr. Not as
confident at dlh where high clouds may limit fog potential.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 76 55 80 60 20 20 0 20
inl 77 51 81 60 30 10 0 30
brd 73 54 81 61 40 10 0 20
hyr 75 53 81 58 20 20 10 10
asx 76 57 84 61 10 10 0 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Huyck
short term... Jjm
long term... Huyck
aviation... Huyck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 21 mi29 min WSW 7 G 9.9 62°F 1010.2 hPa (+0.9)60°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 29 mi49 min Calm G 4.1 70°F 1009.8 hPa
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 40 mi49 min WNW 8 G 12 65°F 1010.2 hPa
45028 - Western Lake Superior 42 mi29 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 62°F 64°F1 ft60°F
45027 - North of Duluth, MN 47 mi29 min W 3.9 G 3.9 68°F 65°F62°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI25 mi36 minNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F59°F78%1010.7 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N5N9N7N10N9NW5NW8NW8NW6NW7W6W8W6W7NW5W6W5W5W7W7SW7W4NW6
1 day agoN7NE7NE9NE9NE11NE10NE9NE6NE8NE5NE5NE6NE7NE7NE9NE9NE9NE8NE9NE9NE9NE9NE8NE10
2 days agoNE8NE7N10N10N8NE6NE10NE7NE5NE4E4CalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSE3NE43

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.