Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Shores, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:40PM Monday March 27, 2017 9:28 AM PDT (16:28 UTC) Moonrise 6:09AMMoonset 6:25PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 830 Am Pdt Mon Mar 27 2017
.small craft advisory for rough bar conditions in effect... Combined seas 6 ft building to 10 this afternoon. Bar conditions moderate becoming rough with breakers possible this afternoon through tonight and Tuesday. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 5 pm this afternoon and 530 am Tuesday. The ebb currents will be strong.
PZZ100 830 Am Pdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A trough will move through the area today. A front will reach western washington on Tuesday. A strong frontal system on Wednesday will bring gales to portions of the area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Shores, WA
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location: 46.95, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 271557
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
900 am pdt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis An upper level trough will give showers to the area
through tonight. A warm front will move through the area on
Tuesday. A stronger front associated with a vigorous low pressure
system will give rain and windy conditions to the area Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Another upper level trough will give showers
to the area on Thursday. Dry weather is expected on Friday.

Short term Rain overnight tapered to showers this morning
which will continue through tonight. Higher cascades locations like
paradise and mount baker have received roughly 6-8 inches since last
evening with a few inches at the major passes above 3000 feet. Snow
levels will stay near 3000 feet through tonight but additional
accumulation will be lighter under a showery regime, with another 2-
6 inches are possible through tonight, with highest amounts above
the passes. Rain showers are expected in the lowlands but with the
500 mb trough axis moves east this morning, rain amounts should
generally be light.

The next system will arrive Tuesday with warm advection rain
increasing over the area. Snow levels will start off near 3000 to
3500 feet with a few inches possible before snow levels rise to near
5000 to 6000 feet Tuesday night. Some higher cascade locations above
pass level could get 6+ inches but this is uncertain as a change
over to rain is likely even at paradise and mount baker. Will need
to evaluate snow amount potential again after all 12z models arrive.

Rising snow levels and a period of rain, heavy at times along the
olympics, means the skokomish river in mason county will be
susceptible to flooding by Wednesday. The threat of landslides will
also increase Tuesday night and Wednesday. See the hydrology section
below for details.

Rain will continue into Wednesday across the area as a 1006 mb low
tracks northeast into north vancouver island. Precipitation will
become showery in the afternoon behind the trailing front but post
frontal onshore flow will increase dramatically. Models show a peak
pdx-bli gradient near +10 mb with a meso low setting up on the
northeast side of the olympics by midday. This is a good pattern for
windy conditions from around central and north puget sound up
through admiralty inlet. Gusts for 45 mph seem like a good bet and
is already indicated in the forecast. An advisory will probably be
needed for some of these areas, especially everett north to
admiralty inlet. Seattle/hood canal might be close to advisory
strength as well with gusts to 40 or 45 mph. Mercer

Long term From previous discussion... Extended models in good
agreement with an upper level trough moving through western
washington on Thursday keeping showers in the forecast. Upper level
ridge builds behind the trough Thursday night into Friday with the
500 mb heights rising into the upper 560 and lower 570 dms. Surface
gradients do not turn offshore but do go northerly during the day.

Normal high for seattle on Friday 56 degrees. With the sunshine and
warming temperatures aloft will go a couple of degrees above normal
with the warmer locations getting into the lower 60s.

Model inconsistencies continuing for the weekend with the GFS a
little stronger with the upper level ridge weakening the next
front enough to reduce the precipitation significantly. The ecmwf
is weaker with the ridge with the next system relatively intact as
it moves through western washington on Saturday. Inconsistencies
continue on Sunday with the ECMWF swinging a trough through the
area while the GFS has an upper level low to the south with a
convective southerly flow aloft pattern. Neither model favored at
this point so will stay with the chance pops through the weekend.

Felton

Aviation There will be scattered showers and sunbreaks today as a
trough moves through the region. The air is somewhat unstable. The
mountains and foothills will be obscured at times. Another front
will approach the region tonight and Tuesday will be rainy with low
cigs again.

Ksea... Scattered showers and sunbreaks with a southerly breeze, more
rain Tuesday as another front arrives.

Marine A trough will move across the area today and then another
front will arrive Tuesday. Winds should increase a bit into the
afternoon and small craft advisories are in effect for the coastal
waters and puget sound. Breezy southerlies are likely Tuesday with
the next front. A stronger system is on tap for Wednesday with areas
of gales likely.

Hydrology No changes from 3 am discussion.

A wet frontal system will give rain to the area late Tuesday through
Wednesday. While precipitation amounts will only be moderate, soils
are quite saturated and there will be a good deal of runoff. Most
rivers will see rises, and a few could approach bankfull on
Wednesday.

The flood-prone skokomish river looks like it will go over flood
stage early Wednesday and may see moderate flooding. A hydrologic
outlook remains in effect.

With the saturated soils and another round of moderate rain
expected Tuesday night into Wednesday for the lowlands the
landslide threat will be elevated once again. Felton/mercer

Climate With measurable rain already this morning at sea-tac that
makes 45 days with measurable rain since february 1st. Only two
years in over 120 years of weather records in seattle have had more
rain days in february and march, 1961 with 49 days and 2007 with 46
days.

Through 8 am this morning the combined february and march
precipitation total for seattle is 15.36 inches. This is the second
highest total on record. The record is 15.55 inches set in 2014.

There has been measurable precipitation on 23 out of the 27 days
at sea-tac this month. The record for the most days with
measurable precipitation in march in seattle is 27 days in 1989.

There has been measurable rain every day so far this month at
quillayute. The current rain day streak including this morning is
35 days in a row. The record is 47 days in 1990. Felton/mercer

Sew watches/warnings/advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory coastal waters, puget sound, grays harbor
bar.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 3 mi53 min SW 14 G 19 47°F 49°F1016.3 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 9 mi37 min 49°F8 ft
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 19 mi41 min WSW 7 G 12 46°F 48°F1017.2 hPa
46041 - CAPE ELIZABETH- 45NM Northwest of Aberdeen, WA 41 mi39 min SW 16 G 18 48°F 50°F7 ft1015.3 hPa (+2.9)

Wind History for Westport, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA9 mi36 minS 88.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F45°F96%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE12NE11E13NE9NE12NE8E6W10SW8S8S5SE6S15S5SE8SE9S7SE6SE11SE9S7SE6S8
1 day agoE5S5SW6SW9SW11SW9SW10SW9SW6SW3S3NE4E5E8E8E8NE7NE8NE10NE10E10E10E11E11
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Tide / Current Tables for Point Brown, Grays Harbor, Washington
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Point Brown
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Mon -- 01:13 AM PDT     9.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:05 AM PDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:20 PM PDT     9.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:23 PM PDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:25 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:59 PM PDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.79.49.17.75.73.51.70.91.42.957.28.99.89.68.263.51.40.10.21.63.86.1

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:35 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:52 AM PDT     -3.31 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:09 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:51 AM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:47 AM PDT     2.45 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:48 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:07 PM PDT     -3.52 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:25 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:59 PM PDT     New Moon
Mon -- 08:08 PM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:05 PM PDT     2.74 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11-0.7-2.2-3-3.3-2.7-1.40.21.52.32.42.11.2-0.3-2-3.1-3.5-3.2-2-0.21.32.42.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.