Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eagle Lake, ME
March 28, 2024 8:29 PM EDT (00:29 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:26 AM Sunset 7:08 PM Moonrise 11:04 PM Moonset 7:33 AM |
Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 290000 AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 800 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A series of low pressure systems will track north off the coast tonight through Friday. Low pressure will consolidate over the Maritimes and move away Friday night followed by high pressure Saturday through Monday. Another low pressure will approach the area from the south on Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
800 pm update...
Moderate to heavy rain continues to stream north along quasi- stationary boundary over the gulf. Expect heavy downpours will continue over the next few hours before diminishing slightly.
The next surge is expected to move in after 12z as the low deepens just to the south of the GOM. Only minor chgs to temps and dwpts but have issued dense fog advisory over northwest areas with warm air over the snowpack leading to vsbys dropping ocnly below 1/4 mile. As winds begin to increase after 07z expect that visibilities will improve.
Prev discussion blo...
A 500mb trof is rounding the base over southeastern United States this evening and will lift north along the Atlantic Seaboard tonight into tomorrow AM. Surface low pressure will develop under the trof and lift northward which will be the next slug of moderate to heavy rainfall. Before that happens the moisture conveyor belt will keep the light to moderate rain going this evening with pockets of heavy downpours especially Downeast. Mainly shower activity across the North Woods and that might shift east over the next few hours into northeast Aroostook County. Expecting another 0.5-1.5 inches of rain over much of the area tonight before the next big slug of moisture arrives with a rapidly deepening low tomorrow. Patchy to areas of fog expected tonight especially in places that have snowpack.
As the shortwave lifting north tilts negative and upper level divergence aloft increases surface convergence expect the surface low to deepen rather quickly. At the same time as the low tracks over the Gulf of Maine into New Brunswick expect temperatures to fall aloft and then to the surface resulting in rain changing to snow across the North Woods by daybreak. Rain will change to snow and march eastward to the rest of northern Maine and into portions of the Central Highlands. Expecting the snow to last into tomorrow evening. Generally expect 1-3 inches of wet snow with isolated higher amounts in higher terrain.
Accumulations will likely be on colder surfaces and given this is falling during the day and not very heavy expecting most roadways to remain wet. N-NW winds will increase tomorrow generally 10-15mph with gusts 25-35mph.
Will continue the flood watch through tomorrow evening for all of Downeast, Central Highlands up to the Baxter region.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The upper level longwave trough will gradually shift out of our area Friday night into early Saturday morning. Precip wrapping around the backside of the low will continue across most of the north down through the eastern half of the forecast area into Washington county. With northeasterly cold air advection, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s across the north, and precip will be mostly snow, with a mix of rain down into Washington county. As the surface low continues to track further east into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday morning, precip rates will decrease and snow will exit the area through the late morning hours.
High pressure will begin to build into the area Saturday night through Sunday, keeping the region drier. Skies will begin to clear Saturday night, especially across the north, and with decreasing winds, temperatures could fall into the upper teens in the north. Cloud cover may hang on longer Downeast due to a disturbance well to the south of the area, keeping lows in the mid 20s. Highs on Sunday with partly to mostly clear skies will lift into the low to mid 40s Downeast and into the mid to upper 30s in the north. Though a light northeast wind will continue to advect cold air, the higher solar angle this time of the year will be enough to combat this cooler air.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will linger through the day on Monday, before the next low pressure system approaches from the southwest. For this next storm, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty for how far north the low will track, which will depend on how strong the ridge of high pressure across the St. John Valley will be.
12z deterministic guidance all came in with solutions which tracked the low along the coast of Maine, bringing precip across the entire forecast area. The exception is the 12z run of the ECMWF, which brings the low center north of the state, but still brings precip through the entire region. Ensemble plots have given a range of solutions from crossing the Downeast region to tracking well south of the Gulf of Maine. The latter ensemble solution will result in no precipitation in our forecast area as the ridge of high pressure dominates. Should the low track closer to our coast however, a swath of snow may sweep across the region, with the potential for a deformation zone to set up just northwest of the low center and bring higher snowfall rates to a narrow region. The newest solution from the ECMWF may bring precip to the entire region, but more in the way of rain as the warm sector crosses the region.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR expected over Aroostook terminals thru 06z-07z. Expect conditions improve in both vsby and cigs as winds increase from the northwest after this time. Gradual improvement expected from late morning to early afternoon but conditions will still remain IFR next 24 hours.
Downeast terminals will vary between MVFR/IFR as locally heavy rain moves through at time overnight. IFR will set in between 12-14z at BGR and BHB and remain there as locally heavy rain moves in after this time. LLWS at BHB after 19z at FL020 with 34045kt.
SHORT TERM: Friday night...IFR at all terminals in rain becoming snow, improving to MVFR in the north and VFR Downeast late. NW winds 15 to 20 kts gusting 30 to 35 kts.
Saturday...MVFR becoming VFR north. VFR south. NW winds 15 to 20 kts gusting 25 to 30 kts.
Saturday night-Monday night...VFR. Light N to NW winds.
Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible, especially at Downeast terminals. Light NE winds.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: Expect winds to remain below 20kts through this evening but winds shifting N will rapidly become SCA conditions tomorrow. SCA will become N-NW Gales tomorrow late day. Seas building 4-7ft tonight into tomorrow. Gale Warning starts at 5pm on Friday.
SHORT TERM: A gale warning remains in place into Saturday afternoon for gusts up to 35 to 40 kts and seas 6 to 9 ft.
Conditions will rapidly improve below SCA levels into the day on Sunday and remain as such through the early part of next week.
HYDROLOGY
Heavy rains overnight will accelerate snowmelt over the area.
The snowpack is rapidly ripening, heavy rainfall and very saturated soils, standing water could be an issue before water enters the main stem rivers. In the north, main stem rivers will mostly be able to absorb the additional input. However, the Piscataquis and Mattawamkeag River Basins are at risk for reaching minor flood level late this week into the weekend. The Penobscot will be slightly less impacted, but some points on the lower reaches could reach action stage. In the far north, the additional water input may be enough to finally move the ice on the St. John river. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the Central Highlands (including Baxter & Moosehead Region) into interior Downeast through the day Friday.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for MEZ001>006-010.
Flood Watch through Friday evening for MEZ004>006-010-011- 015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 800 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A series of low pressure systems will track north off the coast tonight through Friday. Low pressure will consolidate over the Maritimes and move away Friday night followed by high pressure Saturday through Monday. Another low pressure will approach the area from the south on Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
800 pm update...
Moderate to heavy rain continues to stream north along quasi- stationary boundary over the gulf. Expect heavy downpours will continue over the next few hours before diminishing slightly.
The next surge is expected to move in after 12z as the low deepens just to the south of the GOM. Only minor chgs to temps and dwpts but have issued dense fog advisory over northwest areas with warm air over the snowpack leading to vsbys dropping ocnly below 1/4 mile. As winds begin to increase after 07z expect that visibilities will improve.
Prev discussion blo...
A 500mb trof is rounding the base over southeastern United States this evening and will lift north along the Atlantic Seaboard tonight into tomorrow AM. Surface low pressure will develop under the trof and lift northward which will be the next slug of moderate to heavy rainfall. Before that happens the moisture conveyor belt will keep the light to moderate rain going this evening with pockets of heavy downpours especially Downeast. Mainly shower activity across the North Woods and that might shift east over the next few hours into northeast Aroostook County. Expecting another 0.5-1.5 inches of rain over much of the area tonight before the next big slug of moisture arrives with a rapidly deepening low tomorrow. Patchy to areas of fog expected tonight especially in places that have snowpack.
As the shortwave lifting north tilts negative and upper level divergence aloft increases surface convergence expect the surface low to deepen rather quickly. At the same time as the low tracks over the Gulf of Maine into New Brunswick expect temperatures to fall aloft and then to the surface resulting in rain changing to snow across the North Woods by daybreak. Rain will change to snow and march eastward to the rest of northern Maine and into portions of the Central Highlands. Expecting the snow to last into tomorrow evening. Generally expect 1-3 inches of wet snow with isolated higher amounts in higher terrain.
Accumulations will likely be on colder surfaces and given this is falling during the day and not very heavy expecting most roadways to remain wet. N-NW winds will increase tomorrow generally 10-15mph with gusts 25-35mph.
Will continue the flood watch through tomorrow evening for all of Downeast, Central Highlands up to the Baxter region.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The upper level longwave trough will gradually shift out of our area Friday night into early Saturday morning. Precip wrapping around the backside of the low will continue across most of the north down through the eastern half of the forecast area into Washington county. With northeasterly cold air advection, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s across the north, and precip will be mostly snow, with a mix of rain down into Washington county. As the surface low continues to track further east into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday morning, precip rates will decrease and snow will exit the area through the late morning hours.
High pressure will begin to build into the area Saturday night through Sunday, keeping the region drier. Skies will begin to clear Saturday night, especially across the north, and with decreasing winds, temperatures could fall into the upper teens in the north. Cloud cover may hang on longer Downeast due to a disturbance well to the south of the area, keeping lows in the mid 20s. Highs on Sunday with partly to mostly clear skies will lift into the low to mid 40s Downeast and into the mid to upper 30s in the north. Though a light northeast wind will continue to advect cold air, the higher solar angle this time of the year will be enough to combat this cooler air.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will linger through the day on Monday, before the next low pressure system approaches from the southwest. For this next storm, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty for how far north the low will track, which will depend on how strong the ridge of high pressure across the St. John Valley will be.
12z deterministic guidance all came in with solutions which tracked the low along the coast of Maine, bringing precip across the entire forecast area. The exception is the 12z run of the ECMWF, which brings the low center north of the state, but still brings precip through the entire region. Ensemble plots have given a range of solutions from crossing the Downeast region to tracking well south of the Gulf of Maine. The latter ensemble solution will result in no precipitation in our forecast area as the ridge of high pressure dominates. Should the low track closer to our coast however, a swath of snow may sweep across the region, with the potential for a deformation zone to set up just northwest of the low center and bring higher snowfall rates to a narrow region. The newest solution from the ECMWF may bring precip to the entire region, but more in the way of rain as the warm sector crosses the region.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR expected over Aroostook terminals thru 06z-07z. Expect conditions improve in both vsby and cigs as winds increase from the northwest after this time. Gradual improvement expected from late morning to early afternoon but conditions will still remain IFR next 24 hours.
Downeast terminals will vary between MVFR/IFR as locally heavy rain moves through at time overnight. IFR will set in between 12-14z at BGR and BHB and remain there as locally heavy rain moves in after this time. LLWS at BHB after 19z at FL020 with 34045kt.
SHORT TERM: Friday night...IFR at all terminals in rain becoming snow, improving to MVFR in the north and VFR Downeast late. NW winds 15 to 20 kts gusting 30 to 35 kts.
Saturday...MVFR becoming VFR north. VFR south. NW winds 15 to 20 kts gusting 25 to 30 kts.
Saturday night-Monday night...VFR. Light N to NW winds.
Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible, especially at Downeast terminals. Light NE winds.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: Expect winds to remain below 20kts through this evening but winds shifting N will rapidly become SCA conditions tomorrow. SCA will become N-NW Gales tomorrow late day. Seas building 4-7ft tonight into tomorrow. Gale Warning starts at 5pm on Friday.
SHORT TERM: A gale warning remains in place into Saturday afternoon for gusts up to 35 to 40 kts and seas 6 to 9 ft.
Conditions will rapidly improve below SCA levels into the day on Sunday and remain as such through the early part of next week.
HYDROLOGY
Heavy rains overnight will accelerate snowmelt over the area.
The snowpack is rapidly ripening, heavy rainfall and very saturated soils, standing water could be an issue before water enters the main stem rivers. In the north, main stem rivers will mostly be able to absorb the additional input. However, the Piscataquis and Mattawamkeag River Basins are at risk for reaching minor flood level late this week into the weekend. The Penobscot will be slightly less impacted, but some points on the lower reaches could reach action stage. In the far north, the additional water input may be enough to finally move the ice on the St. John river. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the Central Highlands (including Baxter & Moosehead Region) into interior Downeast through the day Friday.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for MEZ001>006-010.
Flood Watch through Friday evening for MEZ004>006-010-011- 015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Bonsecours
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:52 AM EDT 1.16 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:33 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:41 AM EDT 4.86 meters High Tide
Thu -- 02:15 PM EDT 1.01 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 07:06 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT 4.56 meters High Tide
Thu -- 11:04 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:52 AM EDT 1.16 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:33 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:41 AM EDT 4.86 meters High Tide
Thu -- 02:15 PM EDT 1.01 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 07:06 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT 4.56 meters High Tide
Thu -- 11:04 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bonsecours, Quebec, Tide feet
12 am |
1.9 |
1 am |
1.4 |
2 am |
1.2 |
3 am |
1.6 |
4 am |
2.4 |
5 am |
3.3 |
6 am |
4.1 |
7 am |
4.7 |
8 am |
4.8 |
9 am |
4.4 |
10 am |
3.6 |
11 am |
2.8 |
12 pm |
2.1 |
1 pm |
1.4 |
2 pm |
1 |
3 pm |
1.2 |
4 pm |
1.9 |
5 pm |
2.8 |
6 pm |
3.6 |
7 pm |
4.2 |
8 pm |
4.6 |
9 pm |
4.3 |
10 pm |
3.7 |
11 pm |
3 |
St-Jean-Port-Joli
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:25 AM EDT 0.80 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM EDT 5.42 meters High Tide
Thu -- 07:32 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:50 PM EDT 0.68 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT 4.86 meters High Tide
Thu -- 11:04 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:25 AM EDT 0.80 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM EDT 5.42 meters High Tide
Thu -- 07:32 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:50 PM EDT 0.68 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT 4.86 meters High Tide
Thu -- 11:04 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
St-Jean-Port-Joli, Quebec, Tide feet
12 am |
1.5 |
1 am |
0.9 |
2 am |
0.9 |
3 am |
1.7 |
4 am |
2.8 |
5 am |
3.9 |
6 am |
4.9 |
7 am |
5.4 |
8 am |
5.3 |
9 am |
4.7 |
10 am |
3.8 |
11 am |
2.8 |
12 pm |
1.8 |
1 pm |
0.9 |
2 pm |
0.7 |
3 pm |
1.2 |
4 pm |
2.1 |
5 pm |
3.1 |
6 pm |
4.1 |
7 pm |
4.7 |
8 pm |
4.8 |
9 pm |
4.4 |
10 pm |
3.7 |
11 pm |
2.8 |
Caribou, ME,
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