Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Eagle Lake, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:57PM Thursday March 21, 2019 6:31 PM EDT (22:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:48PMMoonset 7:25AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eagle Lake, ME
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location: 47.13, -70.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 212211
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
611 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will intensify in the mid-atlantic region tonight.

The low then tracks north towards maine on Friday and then moves
across the canadian maritimes later Fri night into Saturday.

Near term through Friday
600 pm update: just minor chgs to fcst hrly cld cvr, temps, and
dwpts into the ovrngt based on latest Sat imagery and sfc obs
trends. Rest of near term fcst elements from last update unchgd
this update.

Orgnl disc: clouds will increase and thicken overnight as an
area of low pressure tracks northeast toward the gulf of maine
late tonight. The low is then expected to slowly track northeast
along the downeast coast during Friday. Precipitation is
expected to develop across the region overnight. Across downeast
areas, including the greater bangor region, precipitation is
expected to remain in the form of rain through Friday. Across
northern and central areas, the precipitation is expected to
begin in the form of snow late tonight, and then transition to
all rain by mid morning Friday. Any snow accumulation across the
north late tonight through Friday morning will generally range
from 1 to 3 inches, with perhaps 2 to 4 inches across the north
maine woods. Rain is then expected to continue across the region
through Friday afternoon as the low continue to track northeast
along the downeast coast. Rainfall amounts across the region
late tonight through the day Friday are expected to generally
range from three quarters of an inch to one inch. There is some
elevated instability toward the downeast coast Friday morning,
and there is an outside shot of an isolated lightning strike,
but not enough confidence to mention at time. A low level jet is
expected to traverse the downeast coast Friday morning as well,
with perhaps some wind gusts approaching 35 mph for a brief
time Friday morning through about midday, especially along the
coast. Highs on Friday will range from the mid 30s to around 40
degrees north and low to mid 40s central and downeast.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
For Friday night, the column will cool and rain will gradually
change over to snow from west to east. Initially in the evening,
snow will be mostly in northwest aroostook county, but will
spread east towards a line from the moosehead lake region
towards southern aroostook county by midnight. Snow will
overspread the remainder of the area by daybreak. Snowfall could
be moderate at times in this trowal feature where deformation
banding will be possible. Snow ratios will gradually improve as
the dgz lowers. The vertically stacked upper low and trowal will
gradually weaken and move east Saturday morning with just a few
lingering snow showers in northern zones by Saturday afternoon.

Snow totals Friday night into Saturday morning may prompt a
winter weather advisory for aroostook county and portions of
northern piscataquis and penobscot counties, but will hold off
at this time. Northwestern aroostook and higher terrain
locations such as the katahdin region may see storm totals of 7
or 8 inches of heavy wet snow, but amounts will quickly taper to
the south and east. Temperatures both Friday night and Sunday
will be at or above freezing and help mitigate travel concerns.

Winds will be a concern Saturday afternoon as the surface low
departs into the canadian maritimes. Gusts to 40 mph will be
possible across the entire area and can’t rule out some power
outages. Ridging builds Saturday night with some clearing and
lows dropping into the low to mid 20s for most of the area. This
will refreeze moisture and cause a few slick spots. Warm
advection ahead of a cold front will increase Sunday’s highs
back into the low to mid 40s for most of the area. The cold
front will have very little moisture as it enters northern zones
from quebec on Sunday afternoon, but unstable low levels and a
modest amount of SBCAPE could produce a few stronger snow
showers. The steep low level lapse rates will promote strong
mixing and gusty winds, but not as much as Saturday.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
For Sunday night, the front progresses southward towards the
coast, but will likely slow as a baroclinic zone develops with
some anafrontal snow breaking out in the southern half of the
forecast area. Today’s guidance is nowhere near as ominous as
yesterday’s runs where a southern stream shortwave phased with
the cold frontal boundary. Today’s guidance is pushing the
southern stream moisture well to the south, but will still need
to watch how things progress in the next couple of days. Based
on this scenario, a late season arctic air mass follows for
Monday night into Tuesday. Some of this season’s last subzero
temps will be possible Monday and Tuesday night in northern
zones. The air mass moderates Wednesday into Thursday.

Temperatures will again reach the 40s for the entire area by
Thursday and snowmelt will again become the dominant worry.

Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday
Near term:VFR conditions expected through early this evening.

Conditions are expected to begin to deteriorate after midnight
in developing rain at the downeast terminals kbgr kbhb, and in
snow across the northern terminal. Any snow is expected to
transition to all rain at the northern terminals Friday morning,
with ifr or lower conditions expected all terminals on Friday.

Short term: ifr due to snow and or CIGS will be the prevailing
condition Friday night into Saturday morning. Vlifr vis in snow
will be possible during this timeframe north of a gnr to hul
line. All sites will likely beVFR by later Saturday afternoon
and remain so into Sunday evening. A cold front crossing Sunday
night into Monday morning may cause ifr vis in snow south of a
gnr to hul line.VFR returns to all sites later Monday into
Tuesday.

Marine
Near term: have issued a gale warning from Friday morning into
Friday afternoon for the outer waters. Have issued a small craft
advisory for the intra-coastal zone from Friday morning into
Friday afternoon. Although winds are expected to decrease later
Friday afternoon, a small craft advisory will be needed for seas
right through Friday afternoon. Visibility will be reduced to 1
to 3 nm in rain and patchy fog beginning late tonight and
continuing through Friday.

A coastal flood statement has been issued for later Friday
morning through mid afternoon Friday, for the potential of some
minor splash over at the time of high tide early Friday
afternoon.

Short term: a small craft advisory will be needed Friday night
into Sunday. The worst winds will be Saturday afternoon with a
few gusts reaching 35 kts. Winds and seas decrease later Sunday
into Monday, but a brief small craft advisory may be required
Monday night behind a cold front.

Hydrology
The combined amount of rainfall and snowmelt should be enough
to lift ice and generate ice movement and ice jam potential in
the southern half of the forecast area, particularly the
piscataquis and penobscot river basins. Rain fall amounts
tonight through Friday are generally expected to range from
three quarters of an inch to one inch. River rises are progged
at 2 to 4 feet which should be sufficient to break up some ice.

Widespread river flooding is not expected... Just localized
issues due to any ice jams as rivers begin flowing.

Further north, existing snowpack will absorb the rainfall
without many issues, although we can't rule out localized ice
movement.

Tides coastal flooding
High astronomical tides and storm surge at Friday's midday high
tide seems likely to cause minor issues at some of the usual
trouble spots such as the deer isle causeway, seawall road, and
machias. There is some potential for minor issues with Friday
night's high tide as well. A coastal flood statement has been
issued to highlight the threat for the early afternoon high tide
on Friday.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 3 pm edt Friday for anz052.

Gale warning from 6 am to 3 pm edt Friday for anz050-051.

Near term... Vjn
short term... Mcw
long term... Mcw
aviation... Vjn mcw
marine... Vjn mcw
hydrology... Vjn
tides coastal flooding... Vjn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clayton Lake, ME57 mi3.3 hrsS 9 G 16 mi42°F25°F53%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from 40B (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8
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S72S73CalmCalm6S652CalmCalm23CalmCalm3S95
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1 day ago4
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----2--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm342S7
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2 days ago------2CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm2Calm43
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G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.