Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Eagle Lake, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:25PM Thursday January 17, 2019 4:32 AM EST (09:32 UTC) Moonrise 2:08PMMoonset 4:23AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eagle Lake, ME
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location: 47.13, -70.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 170513
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1213 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
A strong cold front will move across the coastal waters
overnight. High pressure will cross the region Thursday. Weak
low pressure moves across the region Friday, followed by an
arctic cold front Friday night. A noreaster is expected to move
through the gulf of maine on Sunday.

Near term through today
1205 am update...

arctic boundary has cleared the downeast coast with gusty
northwest winds. Skies have become mainly clear as the last of
the snow showers across northern areas have ended. Wind chill
advisory across the north still looks good as wind chills are
already starting to drop to around 20 below across some of the
higher terrain at this hour. Just minor tweaks to overnight
forecast otherwise no other changes.

Previous discussion...

strong cold advection occurs tonight in the wake of the front
with mins dipping down blo zero aft midnight tonight. H9 temps
settle twd -22c acrs the north by daybreak. Skies wl be clrng
but winds wl remain fairly strong overnight, though some deeper
vlys may decouple late. This wl result in wind chill temps
dropping blo -20f late tonight and wl continue advisory fm 07z
thru 14z tomorrow.

Highs on Thu wl be in the single digits under sunny skies as hipres
builds ovr the state.

Short term tonight through Saturday
Radiational cooling will get off to a quick start on Thursday
night with a 1028mb high over the area. However, lows will
likely occur before midnight as the high moves east and high
clouds increase on the cyclonic side of an approaching upper
trough. A warm advection event occurs Friday with a broad area
of low pressure crossing the area. Initially, low pressure in
the southern stream off the DELMARVA coast and an inverted
trough northward towards the midcoast create a norlun and there
will be some low level instabilty near the coast. However, the
southern stream low weakens and the northern stream low in
quebec deepens, focus shifts to this low and the arctic cold
front. Snow ratios will be generous with 15 or 20 to one common
in the morning, but moisture is lacking with this system.

Overall snowfall amounts will be anywhere from one to four
inches and no advisory is anticipated. Behind the arctic front,
temperatures and wind chills will plummet and a wind chill
advisory will likely be needed Friday night into Saturday
afternoon... Mostly in the northern half of the forecast area.

H925 temps on Saturday will drop as low as -30c towards the
saint john valley. These temps will translate into the season's
first subzero high temperatures on Saturday... At least in
northern aroostook county. Temperatures will be a bit warmer
further south with mid teens along the coast.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Lighter winds and high pressure will allow temperatures to drop
well below zero Saturday evening before clouds thicken later in
the night. A massive area of low pressure will track out of the
southern appalachians towards the new england coast by Sunday
morning. This developing nor'easter will bring an impressive
swath of southern stream moisture northward... Overrunning the
bitterly cold arctic air mass. Initially, snow ratios will be
very high... Before winds pick up and the warm nose arrives. Used
a multi-model ensemble mean for temps Saturday night into
Sunday night. The very cold low level wedge of air will remain
in place with unusually cold temperatures to go with moderate to
heavy snow. Current forecast wind chills on Sunday meet
advisory criteria in northern zones... Something that is
difficult to recall in the past decade. Our current storm track
takes the low across the gulf of maine towards saint john, new
brunswick and keeps the entire area in snow until late afternoon
when sleet arrives into the down east region. Intense banding
with 2 inch an hour snowfall rates are a good possibility and
overall totals could reach 15 to 20 inches towards
bangor... Tapering towards a foot in northern aroostook county.

The warmer GFS solution remains a concern... Reducing snowfall
for bangor and southern zones and potentially creating a
corridor of significant ice and sleet. Winds increase during the
afternoon and blowing snow will be a big concern. Between
snowfall rates and blowing snow, travel could be quite dangerous
at times on Sunday. The dry slot arrives towards the southern
zones Sunday evening, but the trowal will likely keep the snow
going in northern zones through Sunday night. Blowing snow will
continue into Sunday. Lighter snow will continue into Monday
until the upper trough passage. Temperatures will actually
moderate after the storm on Tuesday and a warm advection event
may generate some snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.

One other detail regarding the nor'easter could be coastal
flooding. Right now, the Sunday high tide looks like it'll occur
before the waves really ramp up later Sunday afternoon... And
winds will be offshore by the next day's high tide. For now, it
looks like it's a near miss, but will have to watch whether the
storm accelerates and aligns better with the Sunday high tide.

Aviation 05z Thursday through Monday
Near term: ifr expected across the north into this evening in
light snow. Snow squalls look to occur between 21z-00z tonight,
mainly for terminals north of hul with vsby restrictions
dropping to 1sm, and possibly lower, during this time frame.

After 00z expect northern sites will becomeVFR in wake of
front. Downeast terminals expected to beVFR next 24 hours.

Short term:VFR is forecast Thursday night. Ifr tempo lifr vis
in snow is expected Friday.VFR returns Friday night into
Saturday evening. Lifr to vlir vis in snow and blowing snow will
develop Saturday night and continue into Sunday night. Snow lets
up Monday, but expect ifr vis to remain the predominant
condition.

Marine
Near term: gale warnings continue tonight into the morning
hours. Most significant winds will kick in behind arctic front
moving through. Freezing spray will be a factor after midnight
tonight until mid-morning tomorrow. SCA conditions will continue
into early afternoon thu.

Short term: SCA conditions with light freezing spray can be
expected Friday into Saturday. The freezing spray will end
Friday afternoon, but come back Friday night. A strong gale is
expected with a noreaster Sunday into Monday. Storm conditions
are possible.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Wind chill advisory until 9 am est this morning for mez001>006-
010.

Marine... Freezing spray advisory until 10 am est this morning for
anz050>052.

Gale warning until 7 am est this morning for anz050>052.

Near term... Duda hewitt
short term...

long term...

aviation... Duda hewitt
marine... Duda hewitt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clayton Lake, ME57 mi76 minVar 3 mi-8°F-14°F75%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from 40B (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8S10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalm24CalmCalm332CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalm2CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3333CalmCalm3Calm2CalmCalmCalmCalm322Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.