Monday, October23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Eagle Lake, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:42PM Monday October 23, 2017 8:22 PM EDT (00:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:45AMMoonset 8:16PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eagle Lake, ME
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location: 47.13, -70.37     debug

Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 232157
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
557 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

High pressure will remain to our east through mid week as low
pressure approaches from the west. An increasingly moist
southerly flow will continue across the area through mid week
with the potential for a widespread significant rain event
Wednesday into Thursday.

Near term through Tuesday
6 pm update...

based on the latest satl imagery, low clouds(stratus) moving
into the downeast region while high clouds skirt western and ne
areas. Decision was to bring more clouds onto the coastal region
into the early evening and then spread the clouds further n
later in the evening. Will keep an eye on the fog potential. The
latest run of the hrrr guidance overdoing the the vsbys and fog
attm. The rap and NAM closer to reality. Therefore, will hold
off on any fog advisory ATTM and re-assess later.

Temps dewpoints were adjusted the fit the latest conditions
w the slight cooldown. No other changes needed attm.

Previous discussion...

the main concern tonight will once again be with regard to fog
and stratus potential.

Increasingly moist southerly flow will persist tonight with
high pressure to our east and low pressure to our west. Higher
dew point air moving in across the gulf of maine will once again
bring low clouds and fog across the area overnight. There are
indications that we could see widespread dense fog developing
overnight. Latest hrrr rap, as well as latest MOS output is
strongly hinting at the idea of dense fog developing, especially
central and down east. Thought about going with a dense fog
advisory for late tonight, but after colaboration with gyx,
decided to hold off and let evening shift see how the fog
develops tonight. Will mention widespread fog down east and
areas north of there. Will also mention patchy drizzle all areas
later tonight. It will not be as cool as it was last night,
with lows generally ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s
north and lower 50s downeast.

Tuesday will be a mainly cloudy day, with areas of fog and
patchy drizzle expected into the mid morning hours. Otherwise,
an increasingly moist southerly flow will persist in advance of
the approaching trof from the west. We will start to see some
showers or light rain moving into western areas during the
afternoon under mainly cloudy skies. It will be continued
unseasonably mild on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 60s
across the region.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
Overall, tdy's 12z model suite is a little more progressive
with heavier rn banding thru our fa mid week then ystdy's 12z
models were. Steady rn will initially move into the rgn from the
w later Tue ngt, with lgt shwrs and patchy dz preceding steady
rn Tue eve. Due to strong S winds Tue ngt into wed, we keep
mention of patchy fog close to the downeast coast into Wed morn.

Otherwise, we go with rn hvy attms across the rgn on Wed with
intensity tapering off by Wed eve based on the models ATTM as
the center of the high pwat stream from the trop atlc moves just
e of the fa. Rn will then cont late Wed ngt into Thu until the
mid lvl trof axis crosses the rgn from the SW Thu aftn, followed
by rn tapering to sct shwrs and ending from SW to NE across our
fa Thu ngt. For this update, total rnfl ranges from 1.5o inches
across the xtrm N to 2.50 inches ovr cntrl and downeast areas,
with localized 3+ totals possible spcly ovr the hier trrn of the
cntrl me highlands. Given that the rnfl is going to spread ovr a
relatively long pd, with little in the way of torrential rn
rates, and that we have had antecedently dry conditions for a
while, we will hold off on issuing flood watches attm, but will
monitor latest model trends in the event we need to reconsider.

Temps will cont well abv normal, spcly ovrngt lows.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Behind the S wv, conditions should improve for Fri as sfc hi
pres builds in from the W with fair wx contg into Fri ngt and
sat as an upper ridge builds ovr the WRN atlc. Temps will be a
little cooler, but likely still somewhat abv normal. Both low
and hi cldnss increase Sat ngt into Sun morn ahead of the next
major mid lvl S WV complex and associated sfc low from the
midwest with rn spreading into the fa mainly later Sun aftn thru
mon with the potential of sig rnfl totals.

Aviation 22z Monday through Saturday
Near term: widespread ifr or lower conditions will once again
develop tonight in low clouds fog patchy drizzle. Expect these
conditions to continue through much of Tuesday morning and then
improve to MVFR by afternoon.

Short to long term: ifr to low ifr conditions is xpctd across
all of the TAF sites in rn and ngt tm fog Tue ngt thru Thu with
improvement to MVFR Thu ngt and then toVFR by Fri morn. All
sites then remainVFR thru sat.

Near term: winds seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels tonight and then begin to increase to near advisory
levels later Tuesday. Widespread fog and low clouds are expectd
to develop across the waters tonight and persist into Tuesday.

Thus, expect visibility to decrease to 1 nm or less at times
late tonight and continue into Tuesday.

Short to long term: srly winds and WV fetch will cont to
increase thru the SCA category to near gale force ovr the outer
waters late Tue ngt to erly Wed eve, with MAX wv hts upwards to
13-14ft ovr the outermost waters. WV pds will will begin as
short fetch 6 sec then slowly increase to storm WV arnd 10 sec
by Wed aftn and ngt, then remain in the 9-10 sec range in
remnant swell Thu thru Sat as winds become offshore and diminish
and WV hts slowly subside. Went with a blend of ww3 and nwps wv
guidance for fcst wvs for this update. Lastly, areas of marine
fog will cont Tue ngt thru Wed ngt then diminish Thu morn as
sfc winds become more offshore in directional component.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Gale watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening
for anz050>052.

Near term... Duda hewitt
short term... Vjn
long term... Vjn
aviation... Duda hewitt vjn
marine... Duda hewitt vjn

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clayton Lake, ME57 mi66 minSSE 6 G 15 mi58°F-17°F4%1019.9 hPa

Wind History from 40B (wind in knots)
Last 24hr3CalmCalm4CalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalm22Calm4434
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm2CalmCalm2CalmCalmCalmCalm44E655555332
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm2CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm433424CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.