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FXUS65 KMSO 200824 AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 224 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

DISCUSSION
The weather pattern for the next week will be very Spring like with the weather changing from day to day in an active pattern. There'll be some very nice days mixed in with some cooler, showery, windier days. Today, we'll start off with a sunny day as temperatures warm up quickly to a few degrees above average, but it doesn't last long.

Sunday an upper level low moves across southern Canada quickly and compresses the ridge over the region south. This sets up a stronger pressure gradient and more wind, with the potential for a Lake Wind advisory for Flathead Lake on Sunday. The trailing surface cold front with this system will cause some more showers and a cool down to about 5 degrees below average. There isn't much moisture to work with, so the showers are expected to be pretty light.

Monday through mid-week another ridge builds in with the ridge axis over central Montana. That sets up southwest flow into central Idaho and western Montana. That will bring a warmer, moister air mass to the region with temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average through Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday will also have some shower potential, but with the warmer temperatures these will mostly be rain showers.

For the end of the week, models disagree with timing of the next system potentially coming in as early as Thursday afternoon or as late as Friday morning. So far models are showing this as a much wetter system than we've seen recently. Recently we've had some systems bring isolated heavy showers, but this system looks like a closed off low that will be wetter over a much broader area. With the drought across the region, a typical wet system like we normally would get in the late Spring is a welcome sight in the models.

AVIATION
A ridge building over the region today will bring VFR conditions today. Tomorrow morning a shortwave will push the ridge down a bit causing some showers mainly in northwest Montana and central Idaho with some mountain showers in west central and southwest Montana. Any impacts on Sunday will be short lived as we expect fast moving showers.



MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
ID...None.

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