Tuesday, January23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lofall, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 5:01PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 7:36 PM PST (03:36 UTC) Moonrise 11:05AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 245 Pm Pst Tue Jan 23 2018
.gale warning in effect until 9 pm pst this evening...
Tonight..SE wind 25 to 35 kt easing to 15 to 25 kt late in the evening. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft late in the evening. Rain.
Wed..SE wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less in the afternoon. Rain in the morning then showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..S wind 20 to 30 kt becoming 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Fri..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SE wind to 10 kt rising to 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Sat..SE wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sun..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ100 245 Pm Pst Tue Jan 23 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A frontal system will move slowly inland tonight with easing winds. Weak disturbance will cross the area roughly every 12 to 18 hours over the next few days. Stronger systems will arrive Friday night and Sunday

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lofall, WA
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location: 47.82, -122.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 240041
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
441 pm pst Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis A stormy pattern will keep conditions wet and
unsettled through the end of this workweek. Expect locally heavy
precipitation and gusty winds at times.

Short term
The warm front was moving across the CWA at this time. The
heaviest precipitation has been falling on the south slopes of
the olympic range and the kitsap peninsula, where 12-hour rainfall
amounts, ending at 330 pm pst, were in the 1-1.75 inch range.

In the cascades, the snow was starting to pick up. At mount baker
and paradise, on mount rainier, the snow was falling at a rate of
1-2 inches per hour this afternoon. Paradise and mount baker will
likely receive the heaviest snowfall during this event.

There will be somewhat of a lull in the precipitation later
tonight or, at least, the precipitation will become light in the
wake of the warm front. The precipitation will increase somewhat
on Wednesday ahead of and with the cold or occluded front. This
front will sweep across the region during the day Wednesday. It
should be east of the cascades by 4 pm, Wednesday.

Cool and showery conditions will prevail over the area Wednesday
night through Friday due to the presence of a chilly upper level
trough. The air mass will destabilize Wednesday night for a risk
of thunderstorms over the coastal waters. Expect any of the
heavier showers to contain small hail on the lowlands during this
time frame; although, the precipitation may fall as snow or a
rain snow mix in the cascade foothills at elevations above a
thousand feet. Elevations above this foot level could receive a
couple of inches of wet snow.

Long term
The medium range solutions were in better agreement in regards to
the atmospheric river that is anticipated this weekend. The
forecast was heavily weighted towards the ECMWF solution, which
was preferred. The other solutions were coming into more agreement
with the ecmwf.

A deep fetch of moisture from the subtropics will become directed
at western wa during the early part of this period. Rising snow
levels, a wetter air mass, and strong transport winds will result
in periods of heavy rain across much of the cwa, beginning
Saturday and then continuing into Monday morning. Rainfall amounts
in the mountains during the 48-hour period ending at 4 pm pst
Monday are anticipated to be 7-12 inches on the olympic range and
4-8 inches in the cascades. Across the lowlands, amounts are
forecast to be in the 1-4 inch range, with lighter amounts
occurring in the rain-shadow just northeast of the olympic range.

The rainfall amounts were bumped up above the model guidances
because they seemed too low. This amount rainfall on top of what
has already fallen could lead to flooding on many rivers as well
as urban and or small stream flooding.

Anticipate an upper level trough to move over the pacific
northwest the end of the period for a return to colder weather.

Aviation Southerly flow aloft will prevail tonight and
Wednesday. A frontal system will shift inland tonight. An upper
level disturbance will move through the area late Wednesday
afternoon. The air mass is moist and stable. It will become
unstable Wednesday.

There will be a mix ofVFR low clouds, MVFR, and even some ifr
ceilings tonight. The trend, if any, will be for lowering ceilings
tonight.

Areas of low level wind shear AOB 2000 agl will persist for a few
more hours this afternoon until the front passes and southerly
winds at the surface develop increase.

Ksea... Ceilings 3000-4000 feet should lower a bit tonight with
mostly MVFR into Wednesday. Low level wind shear should persist
until earl evening when south winds 8-12 knots develop. Schneider

Marine A frontal system will move inland tonight with easing
winds. Gales should be ending this afternoon or evening. Small
craft advisory winds after that will ease as well. 10-13 foot
swell for the coastal waters will linger into Wednesday.

Additional disturbances will move through the area over the next
few days for small craft advisory strength winds at times.

Stronger systems are expected Friday night and Sunday. Schneider

Hydrology
The stage at the skokomish river should start shooting up shortly
in response to the heavy rain that has fallen today. The observed
stage is lagging a little behind the forecast, so the river may
reach flood stage slightly later than currently forecast. A flood
warning was issued earlier for the skokomish river.

There is still the potential for an atmospheric river to impact
the area this weekend into early next week for the possibility of
excessive rainfall. At this time, the location, exact amount, and
timing of the heavy rain are still not certain. The screaming
message is that the combination of a milder (snow levels rising
above 5500 feet) and wetter air mass with strong transport winds
could could possibly lead to flooding on many rivers as well as
potential cause some urban and or small stream flooding this
weekend or early next week.

The USGS landslide threshold indices were near or slightly above
the thresholds where landslides become probable. The additional
rainfall this week, and especially this weekend, will only
increase the threat of shallow landslides.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Flood warning in effect for the skokomish river in mason
county.

Winter storm warning until 6 am pst Wednesday for cascades
of pierce and lewis counties- cascades of snohomish and king
counties-cascades of whatcom and skagit counties.

Pz... Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 3 pm pst
Wednesday for coastal waters from point grenville to cape
shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville
to CAPE shoalwater out 10 nm.

Gale warning until 9 pm pst this evening for admiralty inlet-
coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10
to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape
shoalwater out 10 nm-east entrance u.S. Waters strait of
juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory for rough bar until 10 am pst Wednesday for
grays harbor bar.

Small craft advisory until 3 pm pst Wednesday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal
waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10
nm.

Small craft advisory until 6 am pst Wednesday for northern
inland waters including the san juan islands.

Gale warning until 6 pm pst this evening for central u.S. Waters
strait of juan de fuca-northern inland waters including the
san juan islands.

Small craft advisory until 9 am pst Wednesday for west entrance
u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm pst this evening for central
u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm pst this afternoon for puget
sound and hood canal.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46120 16 mi45 min S 1.9 44°F 1007.2 hPa42°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 17 mi36 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 44°F 1007.6 hPa (-2.8)41°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 21 mi54 min E 2.9 G 8.9 45°F 46°F1007.9 hPa
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 24 mi48 min SE 7 G 8 44°F 48°F1007.6 hPa
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 35 mi36 min ESE 23 G 25 44°F 1006.6 hPa (-0.7)
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 40 mi48 min ESE 5.1 G 7
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 41 mi54 min 46°F 49°F1007.5 hPa
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 44 mi46 min ESE 23 G 31 45°F 47°F5 ft1005.3 hPa (-0.8)44°F
PTAW1 - 9444090 - Port Angeles, WA 46 mi60 min 1 G 1.9 46°F 48°F1005.8 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 46 mi66 min ESE 12 44°F 1007 hPa42°F

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Everett Snohomish County, WA22 mi43 minE 88.00 miLight Rain41°F39°F96%1007.9 hPa
Bremerton, Bremerton National Airport, WA24 mi40 minN 33.00 miRain Fog/Mist41°F41°F100%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from PAE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE6SE55SE5E5E8E7E7E8E6SE9SE5SE8SE7SE9SE7E74SE8E12
G17
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1 day agoSE15
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S13S10S11S9S9S13S10S9SE9SE7SE7SE8
2 days agoSE19
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Tide / Current Tables for Lofall, Washington
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Lofall
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:15 AM PST     2.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:47 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:03 AM PST     11.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:04 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:37 PM PST     3.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:57 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:14 PM PST     7.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.33.12.52.73.95.77.79.610.911.4119.98.36.54.943.94.55.56.67.47.97.77

Tide / Current Tables for Hazel Point, Washington Current
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Hazel Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:18 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:25 AM PST     0.53 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:14 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:04 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:06 PM PST     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:57 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:08 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     0.24 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:22 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.30.50.50.40.30.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.2-00.20.20.20-0.2-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.