Thursday, March21, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:56AMSunset 8:12PM Thursday March 21, 2019 11:48 AM EDT (15:48 UTC) Moonrise 8:10PMMoonset 7:45AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 946 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019 /846 Am Cdt Thu Mar 21 2019/
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon, then becoming northwest 10 to 20 knots late. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet occasionally to 8 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight, then veering north late. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet, then building to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots in the afternoon, then veering south late. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots by mid afternoon. Waves building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots backing west. Waves calm to 2 feet. Note, wave height forecasts are for ice free areas.
LSZ162 Expires:201903212200;;700577 FZUS63 KMQT 211346 GLFLS Open Lake Forecast for Lake Superior National Weather Service Marquette MI 946 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 For waters beyond 5 nautical miles of shore on Lake Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A trough averaging 29.8 inches will move across the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Farther west, a 30.3 inch ridge will build into the Northern Plains today, drifting over the Upper Great Lakes by Friday. On Saturday, the high shifts south into the Ohio Valley. Weak 30.0 inch troughing is expected briefly on Sunday before giving way to a strong 30.6 inch ridge moving into the Northern Plains from south-central Canada early next week. LSZ162-212200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais city, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 211146 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service duluth mn
646 am cdt Thu mar 21 2019

Issued at 640 am cdt Thu mar 21 2019
updated below for 12z aviation discussion.

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 411 am cdt Thu mar 21 2019
surface and upper level ridging covered the forecast area at 0730z.

Plenty of clouds were found over the eastern two thirds of the area
in response to departing upper level energy. Expect these clouds to
move off to the east dissipate later this morning allowing for a
brief window for a mostly sunny sky. However, by late morning and
into the afternoon, expect a scattered to broken cumulus field to
develop and affect much of the region. This is in response to a weak
cold front pushing through the area. A majority of the short term
hires models, as well as the deterministic models keep the area dry
and will follow the majority and have no precipitation.

A second front moves through the eastern third of the area tonight.

There is a bit better agreement on moisture availability, as well as
forcing, to generate a few rain snow showers in the early evening
over the arrowhead, and a portion of northwest wisconsin through the
overnight. No accumulations are expected. Friday finds high pressure
settling over the region.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)
issued at 411 am cdt Thu mar 21 2019
the focus for the long term remains on a system that moves through
on Sunday bringing rain snow chances and cooler temperatures to
start the new week.

High pressure will be in place across the northland to start the
long term Friday night. This high will drift to the southeast on
Saturday, allowing winds to shift to the west-southwest and usher in
warmest air seen in months. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 40s
and lower 50s, with the warmest readings being seen from koochiching
county eastward into northern lake and cook counties.

Heading into Saturday night, a cold front associated with an area of
low pressure over northern quebec will approach the northland from
the north, while another area of low pressure begins to organize
across the central plains. With the 21.00 suite of guidance, models
are beginning to converge on a solution that will bring a bit of rain
and snow to the northland. A few rain snow showers will be possible
along the international border Saturday night Sunday morning as the
cold front begins to move in. Soundings in this area show a change
from rain to snow overnight and then back to rain in the morning. As
such, have kept any freezing precipitation out of the forecast at
this time. Rain showers will then be possible on Sunday as moisture
from the southern system interacts with the cold front moving
through the northland. Colder air will be moving in behind the front
and will change the rain over to snow late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening before precipitation ends early Monday morning. The
gfs remains the wettest of the gfs ECMWF canadian, but the ECMWF and
canadian are both starting to phase the northern and southern
systems like the GFS has been doing the past few days. The GFS is
most likely overdoing the precipitation, but a mix of all three help
to dampen that. Highs Sunday will range from the upper 30s to middle
40s, but these may be reached earlier in the day depending on the
timing of the cold front.

High pressure will then bring dry conditions to the northland for
Monday and Tuesday before a weak system brings a chance for a few
rain showers on Wednesday. Monday looks to be the coolest day of the
period with high in the 30s before warming back into the 40s and
lower 50s by Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 646 am cdt Thu mar 21 2019
vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is the
potential for some MVFR ceilings late this morning and into the
early afternoon hours if some stratocumulus clouds are able to
develop. If they do, ceilings will return toVFR by mid to late
afternoon, but these chances seem low. Winds will be breezy today
from the northwest at 10 to 20 knots with a few gusts to near 25
knots late this morning and early afternoon. Winds will then
diminish this evening and become light overnight.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 44 24 38 21 0 0 0 0
inl 44 21 38 17 0 0 0 0
brd 45 23 41 19 0 0 0 0
hyr 46 23 38 14 0 0 0 0
asx 46 25 36 19 0 0 0 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Bjh
short term... Gsf
long term... Bjh
aviation... Bjh

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi53 min WSW 8.9 35°F 1012.6 hPa30°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi49 min 36°F 1011.5 hPa (-2.9)33°F
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi49 min WSW 24 G 26 38°F 1012.9 hPa (-3.2)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi49 min WSW 19 G 24 36°F 1014.1 hPa (-2.7)28°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais/Cook County Airport, MN27 mi73 minWSW 7 G 1410.00 miFair37°F24°F60%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from CKC (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN10
1 day agoS7S6S8S7SW9
2 days agoW4W5CalmS6S9S8S7S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.