Saturday, June24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 10:04PM Saturday June 24, 2017 3:11 AM EDT (07:11 UTC) Moonrise 5:51AMMoonset 9:31PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 403 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017 /303 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 23 2017/
Late this afternoon..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Isolated showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots late. Scattered showers. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Scattered showers. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Isolated Thunderstorms through midnight. Scattered rain showers. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Scattered rain showers. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 10 to 20 knots after midnight. Scattered rain showers. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots backing south. A chance of showers. Waves building to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 20 knots veering west. Showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet, then building to 1 to 3 feet.
LSZ162 Expires:201706240415;;706778 FZUS63 KMQT 232003 GLFLS Open Lake Forecast for Lake Superior National Weather Service Marquette MI 403 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Superior Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...As a 29.5 inch low near James Bay drifts to the Canadian maritime provinces through Sunday, 29.6 inch low pressure troughing will remain across the Upper Great Lakes. High pressure ridging of 30.0 inches will build into the Upper Great Lakes late Sunday into Tuesday as 30.3 inch high pressure shifts eastward across the Mid Mississippi Valley. Tuesday into Wednesday, low pressure of 29.5 inches will lift out of the Northern Plains and head towards the Upper Great Lakes and reach western Ontario on Thursday. LSZ162-240415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais city, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 240448
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1148 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017

Issued at 937 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017
showers continue to percolate over northeast minnesota, east of
u.S. Highway 53. Another batch of showers was found in northwest
wisconsin along the st. Croix river valley. Showers were also
occurring over western lake superior and trying to move inland.

This activity is in response to an upper level short wave moving
overhead. Made some pop adjustments due to this activity.

Short term (this evening through Saturday)
issued at 247 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017
an upper-level low will dive southeastward from southern manitoba
tonight across the northland. An associated mid-level shortwave
trough will accompany this upper-level low, and brush just over our
southwestern counties Saturday morning. The bulk of the positive
vorticity advection will stay to the south and west with this wave.

However, chances of precipitation will be highest over the
international border region due to a stronger corridor of isentropic
upglide as the mid-level trough passes to the south. Mid-level winds
will be westerly towards the mid-level trough, which should ride
upward over the isobaric surfaces, causing this isentropic lift.

Analysis of the rap model also indicates a corridor of 950-800 mb
layer fgen along this band of lift. By Saturday afternoon, showers
and some thunderstorms will expand as the atmosphere becomes more
unstable. Values of MUCAPE vary quite a bit between the guidance, so
confidence in chances of thunderstorms will be low, but cannot rule
them out entirely. Will maintain slight chances of thunderstorms
through Saturday afternoon for most of the region. Severe weather is
not expected, but the strongest storms could be capable of
occasional cloud-to-ground lightning and small hail as 500 mb level
temperatures drop into the 20 to 25 degree below zero range.

Low temperatures tonight will once again be cool as we remain in
this northwesterly, cyclonic flow, as lows approach the upper 40s
and lower 50s across the area, which are just slightly cooler than
seasonal normal. Same story for Saturday with the high temperatures,
as highs remain cooler than normal, with values ranging from the
upper 50s across the iron range, and into the lower to mid 60s over
the south.

Long term (Saturday night through Friday)
issued at 247 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017
a couple more shortwaves will impact the region Saturday night into
Sunday night in northwest flow aloft then a brief dry period will
occur before chances for showers and storms return mid through late
next week.

A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into
Saturday evening then another shortwave will dive south into
northern minnesota late Saturday night. The showers may diminish for
a time Saturday night but will then increase again Saturday night
into Sunday with the wave. The best chance for rain will be on
Sunday and we have showers likely over parts of northeast minnesota
into northern wisconsin. A few thunderstorms will also be possible.

Temperatures will remain cool with highs Sunday from the upper
fifties to middle sixties.

A western ridge will slowly move east Sunday through Monday and
bring a dry period starting Monday and continuing into Tuesday. The
upper ridge will be over the region Tuesday with a southerly low
level flow developing. High Monday will be warmer and be from the
upper sixties to around seventy, then warm into the seventies on
Tuesday for most areas.

An area of low pressure will bring the chance for showers and storms
to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. There are some timing
and track differences between the gfs ECMWF canadian but they all
have the low affecting the northland. Increasing
moisture temperature along with stronger lift from this system may
lead to strong or severe storms Tuesday night into Wednesday

Differences among the models start to amplify mid into late in the
week. The GFS develops a very strong low Thursday into Friday and is
slow moving it through with it lingering into Saturday night. The
canadian and ECMWF are in better agreement with a weaker wave aloft
and therefore surface low. The models have all been struggling
during this time period and each has shown considerable differences
from run to run. We have periodic chances for showers storms
Thursday Friday for now.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1148 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017
upper level short waves will rotate over the terminals through the
forecast. This will produce periodic pockets of showers from the
start of the forecast until near sunset Saturday. MainlyVFR is
expected. However, MVFR CIGS in the vicinity of showers is
anticipated. Gusty surface winds are forecast to develop by 15z.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 50 61 49 61 30 30 30 60
inl 49 60 48 61 40 60 50 60
brd 48 61 49 64 0 50 20 20
hyr 51 64 48 62 40 50 20 50
asx 51 63 49 63 50 30 20 60

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Gsf
short term... Jts
long term... Melde
aviation... Gsf

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi75 min NNW 8 G 19 60°F 1006.6 hPa53°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi41 min 61°F 1006.7 hPa55°F
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi71 min N 13 G 14 58°F 1008.8 hPa (+1.0)
45006 - W SUPERIOR 48NM North of Ironwood, MI 37 mi81 min W 12 G 12 46°F 39°F1 ft1007.9 hPa (+0.4)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi71 min WSW 14 G 15 53°F 1009.5 hPa (+1.2)52°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais/Cook County Airport, MN27 mi78 minWNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F46°F77%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from CKC (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmW3W5W3W7W5W7W7W5
1 day agoS5CalmCalmSW4SW3W4W5W5W6W3W4CalmSW3S7
2 days agoNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N4SE4SE5S9S5SE7SE6SE4CalmCalmNE4CalmE4E6CalmE3S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.