Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:40AMSunset 5:34PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:54 AM EST (08:54 UTC) Moonrise 2:25PMMoonset 4:47AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 950 Pm Est Wed Jan 16 2019 /850 Pm Cst Wed Jan 16 2019/
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots backing southwest by midnight, then veering west late. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Isolated snow showers. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. A slight chance of snow showers in the evening. Freezing spray. Waves building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..North winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Freezing spray. A slight chance of snow showers. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Freezing spray. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Freezing spray. A chance of snow showers. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Heavy freezing spray. A chance of snow showers. Waves building to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Freezing spray. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet, then building to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots veering northwest. Freezing spray. A chance of snow showers. Waves building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
LSZ162 Expires:201901171100;;470121 FZUS63 KMQT 170250 GLFLS Open Lake Forecast for Lake Superior National Weather Service Marquette MI 950 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019 For waters beyond 5 nautical miles of shore on Lake Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 30.4 inch high centered near Lake Huron will continue eastward overnight, and will be replaced by a 30.0 inch trough that will develop over the western Great Lakes Thursday afternoon. A stronger high pressure of 30.7 inches will build into the Northern Plains from Saskatchewan on Friday afternoon, stretching a ridge of 30.5 inches across Lake Superior Friday night. This high will remain relatively stationary over Manitoba and western Ontario this weekend as a 29.6 inch low traverses through the mid- Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, the high will be directly over Lake Superior at about 30.5 inches, and will push to the lower Great Lakes Monday afternoon. LSZ162-171100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais city, MN
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 47.86, -89.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdlh 170546
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1146 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019

Update
Issued at 1143 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019
updated for the 06z aviation discussion.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 312 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019
northwest flow aloft will affect the forecast area tonight and
Thursday. Meanwhile, high pressure will be in charge at the surface.

Even with this setup, will be hard pressed to generate lake effect
snow showers along the higher terrain areas of the south shore of
lake superior, as moisture is sparse through Thursday morning. Model
differences with the handling of an elongated area of vorticity
moving along the international border Thursday. Have opted for small
pops from late morning through early afternoon. Will also have a
gradual increase in pops along the higher terrain of the south shore
of lake superior Thursday afternoon. This is in regard to the flow
turning west northwest and a small pocket of cold air advection. Any
amounts will be light and less than one half inch.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 312 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019
the main concern in the extended is the dangerously cold wind chills
expected Thursday night through the weekend. The snowbelt region of
northwest wisconsin will see lake effect snow chances from Thursday
night into Sunday night.

A ridge will build into southern portions of british columbia and
alberta. At the surface high pressure will build into central
portions of canada and nudge into the upper mississippi river valley
Thursday night. With mostly clear skies and winds around 5 mph
expect strong radiational cooling. Bumped down forecast low
temperatures in comparison to the previous forecast. Lows range from
near zero to 20 below zero along the international border. Winds are
borderline at this point in time, but a wind chill advisory may be
needed.

The high will continue building into the region on Friday, while a
low develops across the southern plains. The low across the south
will bring some cloud cover to southern portions of the cwa, while
mostly clear skies are anticipated along the international border.

The arctic high will continue building into the upper mississippi
river valley through the weekend and advect very cold 850 hpa air
due to northwesterly flow. Most of the weekend expect -15 to -20
degrees celsius air aloft to advect in. Expect the coldest
temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning with 850 hpa values
between -20 and -25 degrees celsius advecting in. Overnight lows
range from the single digits below zero to the 20s below zero
Saturday morning and Sunday morning. Wind chill values of 15 to 45
below zero are anticipated. Wind chill advisories and warnings will
likely be needed this weekend. Through the weekend favorable
northwest flow, warm lake superior temperatures and very cold air
aloft will bring a prolonged period of lake effect snow showers to
the snow belt region of northwest wisconsin. Highs Friday through
Sunday range from the teens above zero to the single digits below
zero.

The arctic high will build into the central great lakes late Sunday
night into Monday. As winds aloft shift lake effect snow showers
along the south shore of lake superior will come to an end. A
shortwave will dig into southern portions of manitoba and
saskatchewan on Monday. This will bring increasing cloud cover and
widespread chances of light snow. Flow aloft will gradually become
southwesterly and advect warm air into the region. Temperatures will
rebound next week with highs in the teens above zero on Monday.

After Monday deterministic guidance diverges on how a trough digs in
across the intermountain west plains. This could bring the forecast
area snow from a plains low, but at this point in time run-to-run
and model-to-model solutions are too inconsistent.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1143 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019
a stratus deck will move into the region from the west-northwest
bringing MVFR CIGS to brd, inl and hib approximately between 14z and
20z. At the time of issuance, there are areas of lower end MVFR ifr
cigs embedded within the stratus deck so will wait and see if the
lower CIGS will advect in or lift by tomorrow morning. Also
tomorrow morning, possible light snow showers could affect inl.

Vfr conditions prevail at all sites by tomorrow afternoon.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh -2 15 -11 4 0 0 0 0
inl -10 8 -20 -6 0 10 0 0
brd -3 14 -11 5 0 0 0 0
hyr 4 21 -6 9 0 10 0 0
asx 3 20 0 9 0 20 20 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Kc
short term... Gsf
long term... Wl
aviation... Kc


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi59 min NW 5.1 9°F 1026.1 hPa-4°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi43 min 11°F 1023.3 hPa-2°F
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi55 min N 8.9 G 11 11°F 1026.9 hPa (-0.8)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi55 min S 5.1 G 6 15°F 1025.1 hPa (-1.1)7°F

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais/Cook County Airport, MN27 mi60 minN 010.00 miOvercast-8°F-14°F70%1020 hPa

Wind History from CKC (wind in knots)
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last 24hrNW14
G19
NW10
G19
NW7NW8CalmCalmNW3NW6NW3W4SW3CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W3W3CalmCalmCalmW4
1 day agoS3SW3SW3S5SW4S5S9S9
G17
S12
G22
SW4W8
G15
W10
G16
W10
G15
W10
G18
W10
G16
W12
G22
NW14
G25
NW12
G30
NW12
G22
NW9
G17
NW6
G16
NW8
G14
NW8
G17
NW10
G18
2 days agoW5W4W6NW5NW3NW4NW9NW7NW6
G14
NW6NW9
G16
NW5NW4NW5NW5NW3NW5CalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (3,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.