Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 8:21PM Sunday March 26, 2017 1:33 AM EDT (05:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:19AMMoonset 5:47PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 945 Pm Edt Sat Mar 25 2017 /845 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 25 2017/
Rest of tonight..East winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 20 knots after midnight. A chance of rain or freezing rain after midnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots by mid afternoon. A chance of rain or freezing rain in the morning...a chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots backing northwest after midnight. A slight chance of rain through midnight. Patchy fog. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Monday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south less than 10 knots by mid afternoon. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots backing northeast after midnight. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots veering east by mid afternoon. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Waves building to 1 to 3 feet...then subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 10 to 20 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet.
LSZ162 Expires:201703260945;;082669 FZUS63 KMQT 260145 GLFLS OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE SUPERIOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 945 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE SUPERIOR .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.6 INCHES OVER JAMES BAY WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EASTERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OF 29.7 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN INTO LAKE HURON BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS A 30.2 INCH RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD TO 30.4 INCHES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS A 29.9 INCH LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. LSZ162-260945-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais city, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 260509
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1209 am cdt Sun mar 26 2017

Update
Issued at 926 pm cdt Sat mar 25 2017
clouds continue to expand north and west this evening with light
precipitation moving through parts of northern wisconsin. Kpbh
reported light rain for a brief period and area radars show weak
echoes continue to move north. We don't plan any big changes to
the forecast at this time. There is some concern portions of
ashland and maybe even bayfield counties could get enough freezing
rain to warrant an advisory. Temperatures were from 31 to 36
degrees across those counties and there may be a bit more of a
drop but clouds continue to thicken. We will not add any more
counties to the advisory at this time but continue to monitor
radar/model/observations.

Short term (this evening through Sunday)
issued at 314 pm cdt Sat mar 25 2017
cloud cover is expected to increase again overnight tonight ahead of
a stacked area of low pressure that will be situated over the mid
mississippi river valley overnight. A lobe of PVA will eject from
this low pressure system, along with increasing 850-700 mb layer
warm air and moisture advection, will support increasing chances
of precipitation over northwest wisconsin this evening, and then
from the brainerd lakes northeast towards the minnesota arrowhead
Sunday morning. East to northeast on-shore winds off of lake
superior will continue through the day Sunday, which should advect
some cooler temperatures over land. This may lead to the
development of some patchy fog along the north shore. Confidence
is not high that any dense fog will develop despite what a few of
the models were progging, including the rap and hrrr models, and
to a lesser extent - the WRF arw/nmm models. Cloud cover and
stronger winds due to the favorable fetch should help limit the
fog, but dew point depressions still look favorable. Due to the
cooler temperatures being advected on-shore, still think some
patchy fog is likely, but don't think it will be dense. Therefore,
introduced patchy fog over the north shore overnight.

The main concern for the overnight hours will be the precipitation
types overnight. As the PVA and warm air advection arrives, the
thermal profiles are expected to cool. Deepening moisture profiles,
as indicated in the rap/nam model soundings, along with cooling sfc
temperatures, will lead to mainly freezing rain across portions of
northwest wisconsin, with the possibility of snow/sleet mixing in.

The most uncertainty for this forecast comes from the exact
temperature profile as the sfc temperatures will be right at
freezing. Any change in the sfc temperatures, either plus or minus
a degree, will have big changes in p-types. The guidance is
hinting at favorable sfc temperatures for freezing rain along the
higher elevations of the gogebic range in iron county. Due to the
potential for a wintry mix, with freezing rain being the primary
p-type expected, decided to issue a winter weather advisory for
iron county tonight and into mid Sunday morning until temperatures
warm up. Smaller changes of freezing rain are possible along the
north shore overnight as well, but the heaviest QPF is expected
over northwest wisconsin, so not expecting as much ice
accumulation along the north shore. Ice accumulation in iron
county could be up to a tenth of an inch, with the greatest
amounts expected in the higher elevations of the gogebic range.

Precipitation will transition to all rain late Sunday morning
through the afternoon as the temperatures increase. Temperatures
will remain near or above seasonal averages during the day Sunday,
with decreasing chances of precipitation Sunday afternoon and
evening.

Long term (Sunday night through Saturday)
issued at 314 pm cdt Sat mar 25 2017
no major storms appear in the offing for the upcoming week, but
there will be periodic chances for light precipitation, both at the
beginning of the period, and again later in the week.

At the beginning of the extended periods Sunday night and Monday,
ongoing light precipitation will be winding down and ending as the
slow-moving upper low over the middle great lakes region slowly
pulls away to the east.

As the eastern north american trof axis amplifies a bit early to mid
week, high pressure will strengthen slightly over canada, and should
be sufficiently strong to push a weak surge of slightly colder air
southward into the western lakes region tues-wed. This should also
be sufficient to minimize precip chances during this time with
general large-scale subsidence.

Beyond Wednesday, the medium range models have significant
differences in both amplitude and timing of various weak
disturbances that will affect the northland through the remainder of
the 7 day forecast window, which is also supported by the rather
large spread in the ensemble solution space. The region should
transition to a slightly warmer airmass with time, but there will
also likely be periodic chances for light precip during the Thursday-
Saturday time range, and it seems likely that there will be at least
a couple of short time windows where light wintry mixed precip will
be possible across the region.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1209 am cdt Sun mar 26 2017
an area of surface low pressure was located along the northeast
missouri and western illinois border as of late evening. The low
will move northeast toward southern lake michigan and southwest
michigan by early Sunday evening. An upper level disturbance was
also moving through the northland this evening. These features will
bring a chance for rain, freezing rain, and possibly some sleet to
portions of the northland, especially over northwest wisconsin.

Freezing drizzle has also developed further northwest into the
kcoq/kdlh/ktwm/kbfw areas. Areas of precipitation will be possible
through late Sunday or Sunday evening. Temperatures will warm
through the day so mainly rain will occur. We did keep a mention of
freezing rain at khyr later tonight. We also have a period of
freezing drizzle at kdlh. The freezing drizzle in the kdlh area may
diminish later tonight as the low level flow weakens off of lake
superior possibly warming temperatures and leading to weaker
orographic lift.

Mainly MVFR/ifr conditions will prevail through the period with some
possibleVFR conditions developing at kbrd/kinl late in the day or
in the evening hours.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Dlh 30 38 30 46 / 70 50 10 10
inl 29 47 28 48 / 0 0 0 10
brd 32 45 32 54 / 30 20 10 10
hyr 33 42 31 48 / 60 50 30 10
asx 32 39 30 45 / 60 50 30 10

Dlh watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory until 9 am cdt this morning for wiz004.

Mn... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 4 am cdt early this morning for
lsz121-140>148.

Update... Melde
short term... Jts
long term... Miller
aviation... Melde


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi37 min NE 7 33°F 1023 hPa28°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi45 min 32°F 30°F
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi33 min ENE 8 G 8.9 32°F 1024.5 hPa (-2.2)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi33 min ENE 16 G 17 33°F 1021.2 hPa (-2.1)31°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais/Cook County Airport, MN27 mi39 minE 810.00 miOvercast27°F21°F80%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from CKC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE5E6NE9E5E5NE4NE10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N7N10
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2 days agoE6E3SE3S5S5S8
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S7SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.