Thursday, April26, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 9:06PM Thursday April 26, 2018 9:28 AM EDT (13:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:20PMMoonset 4:43AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 408 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018 /308 Am Cdt Thu Apr 26 2018/
Early this morning..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet.
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots veering northwest in the afternoon. Scattered rain showers through early afternoon. Waves building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots veering northeast after midnight, then veering southeast late. Scattered rain showers, possibly mixed with snow after midnight. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Friday..East winds 5 to 15 knots backing northeast in the afternoon. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves building to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet, then building to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots veering south by mid afternoon. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Saturday night..South winds less than 10 knots veering southwest after midnight. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Monday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves calm to 2 feet.
LSZ162 Expires:201804261615;;048881 FZUS63 KMQT 260808 GLFLS Open Lake Forecast for Lake Superior National Weather Service Marquette MI 408 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 For waters beyond 5 nautical miles of shore on Lake Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A weak trough of 29.8 inches crossing Lake Superior through this afternoon will reach the lower Great Lakes tonight. On Friday, a low of 29.8 inches will track from northern Minnesota to southern Wisconsin, just grazing western Lake Superior. This low will eventually slide across the lower Great Lakes later Friday and merge with another area of low pressure over southern Quebec and New England on Saturday, while deepening to 29.5 inches. Behind this low pressure system, high pressure of 30.0 inches will move from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes through Sunday. LSZ162-261615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais city, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 261202
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
702 am cdt Thu apr 26 2018

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 323 am cdt Thu apr 26 2018
an active weather pattern will develop over the northland for
today and Friday, driven by a few mid-level shortwave troughs,
which will bring some measurable precipitation for tonight and
Friday. For this morning, a positively tilted mid-level trough and
an associated cold front will dive southeastward over the region.

Some decent lift will accompany the front due to enhanced low-
level fgen and a channel of positive vorticity advection (pva)
along the trough. However, the moisture profile is the big
question regarding precipitation. Both the NAM and rap model
soundings indicate only a thin corridor of deeper saturation as
the cold front moves through, so the window for precipitation is
rather small. Still think that some chances of precipitation with
this front is reasonable given the lift, so made only small
adjustments to the pops to better capture the progression of the
front. Precip type should be mostly in the form of rain, but some
snow may mix in along the international border. Only small rain
accumulations are expected with this front, with up to 0.05"
possible. Otherwise, dry air will quickly move in behind the
front and bring clearing skies from west to east by the afternoon.

Small chances of rain will linger over portions of northwest
wisconsin this afternoon as the front passes by. Northwest winds
will also pick up behind the cold front, with gusts between 15 to
25 mph. Highs today will range from the upper 40s over the
minnesota arrowhead to the middle and upper 50s elsewhere.

A very short break from the clouds and precipitation will occur this
evening before a more potent shortwave trough will quickly dive
southward from manitoba canada overnight. This shortwave looks to
have better lift associated with it, per the thaler QG omega progs.

Deeper moisture will persist for longer with this shortwave compared
to the one for this morning, so precipitation efficiency will be
more robust with this second wave. The thermal profiles indicate a
mix of precip types, primarily a mix of rain and snow due to 925
mb low-level temperatures dipping to near zero degrees. The best
chances of snow accumulation will be over the minnesota arrowhead
and points southeast into northwest wisconsin. Forecast snow
accumulation through Friday morning will be light, with only up to
one inch possible, which is consistent with the SREF ensemble
mean values in these areas, although these values may even be too
high still due to above freezing surface temperatures per mndot
rwis stations. Some lingering PVA and low-level saturation will
linger some chances of precipitation into Friday afternoon, when
precipitation types will be in the form of rain. There may even
be a rumble of thunder in northwest wisconsin due to increased
instability due to steepening low-level lapse rates. MUCAPE values
are generally around 50 j kg, so only put in a slight chance of
thunder in the forecast.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)
issued at 313 am cdt Thu apr 26 2018
the strong shortwave will continue to move southeast across the
western great lakes on Friday night, with precipitation generally
ending by Friday evening. Surface high pressure and upper level
ridging will then move into the region on Saturday and Sunday,
bringing much warmer temperatures and dry weather for the upcoming
weekend. This upper level ridge will then start to move eastward
across the great lakes on Sunday night and Monday. Southwest flow
from a broad upper level trough in the western states will begin to
send shortwave energy, and increasing moisture into the region by
Monday. As a result, we should see a chance of precipitation from
Sunday night into Wednesday of next week. A few thunderstorms will
even be possible during that time. Highs on Saturday will generally
be in the 50s, with temperatures reaching the 60s on Sunday. The
warm weather will continue on Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the
60s to lower 70s. Lows will be in the 20s across the northland on
Friday night, but warm into the 30s to 40s for much of the remainder
of the long term period.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 657 am cdt Thu apr 26 2018
a cold front will continue to move southeast across the northland
today, bringing a few showers and a period of cloud cover as the
front moves through. After the front moves southeast of the area,
we will see a bit of a break this late afternoon and evening,
before a strong shortwave moves southeast across the region. This
system could bring some rain or snow showers, especially across
the northeast half of the region. Some local MVFR conditions will
be possible in the vicinity of the front today, and close to the
surface low tonight.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 55 33 47 28 40 40 30 10
inl 52 34 47 26 20 40 30 10
brd 59 38 54 30 20 10 10 0
hyr 58 29 51 25 30 40 40 10
asx 56 29 45 26 40 50 60 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Jts
long term... Dap
aviation... Dap

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi32 min SW 4.1 34°F 1009.1 hPa28°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi40 min 1007.6 hPa
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi28 min SW 12 G 13 38°F 1010 hPa (-0.6)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi88 min SW 11 G 13 44°F 1009.4 hPa (-1.0)29°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais/Cook County Airport, MN27 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair39°F21°F48%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from CKC (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmS4SE6S7SE8S7S7S8S7SW5S6S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW4CalmCalmSW4
1 day agoN10N6W4NW3W4W8NW5
2 days agoSW8SW6S8S6S11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.