Wednesday, February21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 6:31PM Wednesday February 21, 2018 7:43 PM EST (00:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:51AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 350 Pm Est Wed Feb 21 2018 /250 Pm Cst Wed Feb 21 2018/
Late this afternoon..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots by midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots backing south by late morning, then backing east by mid afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots veering west in the afternoon. Snow likely in the morning.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots.
Saturday..Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming east 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 20 knots backing northeast after midnight. Snow.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Note, waves omitted for mostly ice covered areas.
LSZ162 Expires:201802220500;;335896 FZUS63 KMQT 212050 GLFLS Open Lake Forecast for Lake Superior National Weather Service Marquette MI 350 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 30.7 inch high pressure system over the Great Lakes tonight will shift into southern Quebec on Thursday night. A weak 30.1 inch trough will then pass across the western Great Lakes on Friday followed by weak a ridge of 30.3 inches on Saturday. A low averaging 29.0 inches will track across the Great Lakes region Saturday night through Sunday. A 30.3 inch ridge will then build into the Upper Great Lakes on Monday as a 29.6 inch low moves across southern Saskatchewan. LSZ162-220500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais city, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 220027
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
627 pm cst Wed feb 21 2018

Update
Issued at 627 pm cst Wed feb 21 2018
latest short range models point to a slower onset of the snow on
Thursday afternoon. Have adjusted the Thursday forecast
accordingly. Added some patchy fog around the brainerd lakes to
near hibbing tonight. Rest of the forecast on track.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 342 pm cst Wed feb 21 2018
an area of high pressure over the upper midwest this afternoon
will shift into eastern canada by Thursday afternoon. Expect a
clear, calm, cold night across the northland. Leaned on the colder
model guidance considering the ripe conditions for radiational
cooling overnight. The fresh snowpack also helps. Overnight lows
will be anywhere from several degrees below zero to approaching 15
below zero.

The northland will get southerly return flow Thursday in the wake
of the departing high. There will be increasing cloud cover from
the south because of our next approaching snow system. Highs
should reach the middle to upper 20s. Snow will begin to spread
into areas from central mn into northwest wi during the middle to
late afternoon. The snow should be very light until the evening
when deeper forcing and saturation kicks in.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 342 pm cst Wed feb 21 2018
a fast-moving inverted trough Thursday night and Friday and a
potential winter storm Saturday night through Sunday are the main
concerns for the long term.

A potent and fast-moving shortwave trough and associated inverted
surface trough will move through the upper midwest Thursday night
and Friday. The past several runs of the deterministic models and
sref plumes have incrementally raised precip amounts with this
wave. A trend which has continued with the 12z runs. Strong
frontogenesis will accompany the trough, which will likely result
in a band of 1 inch per hour snowfall. The nam, gfs, and gem all
feature different orientations of the best forcing and speed of
translation across the forecast area. While we have high
confidence in mesoscale banding and enhancement, the location and
duration are uncertain. Thermal profiles from the i-35 corridor
east across northwest wisconsin suggest loss of ice crystals from
the pre-dawn hours Friday morning through the afternoon. Have
continued the earlier forecast trend of including a mix of snow
and freezing drizzle where temperatures warm above ice nuclei
activation. A glaze up to a few hundredths of icing is possible.

Given the lingering questions, but high confidence a band of heavy
snow, mixed with icing potential, we issued a combination of
winter weather advisory and winter storm watch. The watch area
highlights the best potential for more than 6 inches of snow in a
12 hour period, with lower amounts in the advisory areas.

Attention then shifts to this weekend and a potential winter
storm. The GFS has been fairly consistent in handling this system
during the past 4 runs and the ECMWF features a colorado low
lifting through wisconsin into northeast ontario Friday night
through Sunday night. With continuing dissemination issues at ncep
today, we were unable to dig into the particulars of the ecmwf
for this forecast and relied on mslp ensemble mean, spread, and
standard deviation plots to compare with the GFS and gem. The gem
is less organized with the storm system and shunts the main
moisture stream eastward into the ohio valley with a weaker low.

The gfs, however, brings the colorado low through wisconsin with a
robust precipitation shield moving through eastern minnesota and
wisconsin. The ECMWF solution seems to lean toward the more
organized side, but a little farther east than the gfs. If the
gfs ECMWF type solution comes to pass, we will be looking at
another 6 or more inch snow event this weekend, while the gem only
brings a few to several inches. There is also a question of
precipitation types with that system. Warm air is forecast to wrap
into the low, which may lead to a period of mixed precipitation
over northwest wisconsin. Anyone with travel plans this weekend is
encouraged to keep up with the forecast through the rest of the
week.

The active pattern continues into next week with a weak wave
moving through the region Monday night through Wednesday. The gfs
brings a more organized clipper across the canadian prairies and
into northwest ontario Monday night and Tuesday while the gem
features a slower progression. With the weak wave moving through
the region, another round of light snow is possible Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 519 pm cst Wed feb 21 2018
vfr at the outset of the forecast with high pressure nearby.

Expect theVFR to give way to MVFR CIGS at brd as low clouds and
light snow move toward this area late in the forecast. Ifr vsbys
at brd starting at 22z as the snow intensifies.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh -3 24 18 30 0 30 90 40
inl -11 28 12 28 0 0 70 40
brd -5 24 17 30 0 70 90 20
hyr -7 29 22 33 0 40 90 40
asx -2 30 22 34 0 20 90 50

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory from 3 pm Thursday to noon cst Friday
for wiz006>008.

Winter weather advisory from 6 pm Thursday to 3 pm cst Friday
for wiz002-003.

Winter storm watch from Thursday evening through Friday
afternoon for wiz001.

Mn... Winter weather advisory from 3 pm Thursday to noon cst Friday
for mnz025-033>036-038.

Winter weather advisory from 6 pm Thursday to 3 pm cst Friday
for mnz011-018-026.

Winter storm watch from Thursday evening through Friday
afternoon for mnz012-019>021-037.

Ls... None.

Update... Gsf
short term... Grochocinski
long term... Huyck
aviation... Gsf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi47 min WNW 4.1 23°F 1036.5 hPa6°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi43 min 23°F 1033.2 hPa (+0.6)8°F
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi43 min WSW 20 G 22 23°F 1036.9 hPa (+0.9)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi43 min SW 9.9 G 14 23°F 1036.5 hPa (+0.8)12°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais/Cook County Airport, MN27 mi68 minSW 510.00 miFair16°F3°F57%1031.2 hPa

Wind History from CKC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5
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W7W9CalmCalmCalmW3SW3SW3W8CalmS5SW5W5S4W3CalmCalm
1 day agoN12N13
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2 days agoN11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.