Sunday, October22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Marais, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:27AMSunset 6:55PM Sunday October 22, 2017 2:21 AM EDT (06:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:09AMMoonset 7:57PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 957 Pm Edt Sat Oct 21 2017 /857 Pm Cdt Sat Oct 21 2017/
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight, then veering southwest late. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves calm to 2 feet building to 3 to 5 feet occasionally to 7 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots veering west in the afternoon, then backing southwest late. A slight chance of showers through early afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet occasionally to 7 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots veering west by mid afternoon. A slight chance of showers by mid afternoon. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north 20 to 30 knots after midnight. Waves building to 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet.
Tuesday..North gales to 35 knots diminishing to 20 to 30 knots by mid afternoon. Waves building to 6 to 9 feet occasionally to 11 feet, then subsiding to 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 20 knots veering southeast. A chance of rain showers. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots becoming east 20 to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves building to 5 to 8 feet occasionally to 10 feet.
LSZ162 Expires:201710221000;;212758 FZUS63 KMQT 220157 GLFLS Open Lake Forecast for Lake Superior National Weather Service Marquette MI 957 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Superior Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 29.7 inch trough will pass across Lake Superior overnight. Weak ridging of 30.0 inches will track eastward across Lake Superior late Sunday ahead of a 29.7 inch trough that will cross Lake Superior Monday. A strong low pressure system of 29.3 inches will track along the backside of the trough northward toward eastern Ontario Tuesday. Brief ridging on Wednesday will give way to another trough on Thursday into Friday. LSZ162-221000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Marais city, MN
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location: 47.86, -89.87     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 220536
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1236 am cdt Sun oct 22 2017

Short term (this evening through Sunday)
issued at 353 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017
the large area of light rain that moved through during the day had
all but moved out of the region as of 330 pm. In the wake of this
area of rain, patchy drizzle and clouds blanketed the area. A new
area of showers and thunderstorms was now moving toward the
extreme southwest border, in the vicinity of the strong cold front
moving across western minnesota. SPC mesoanalysis page showed
some weak instability in a narrow corridor near the front.

Temperatures were generally in the lower 60s across the region.

The focus for tonight will continue to be the chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the northland. The cold front will
continue to barrel eastward across the region as the night wears
on. The cams are generally in pretty good agreement concerning the
evolution and timing of precipitation tonight, with most of the
models showing an expansion of precipitation during the evening.

As a result, we will continue with a high pop north to south
corridor, which we will then push eastward overnight. Not looking
for a great deal of precipitation due to the limited coverage and
fast movement of the front. We should hang on to some limited
instability into the night, although lack of surface heating and
the time of the year are definitely limiting factors for strong to
severe storms. The best chance appears to be from mid to late
evening across northwest wisconsin, with the cams showing a
proliferation of precipitation during that time frame.

The showers storms will then end from west to east overnight,
while lingering for a short time in the east on Sunday morning.

Have slowed down the expected clearing behind the front, with most
of the clearing now on track for arriving on Sunday. Highs on
Sunday will generally be in the 50s with a good deal of sunshine.

Long term (Sunday night through Saturday)
issued at 351 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017
the northland can expect a much cooler week ahead, in comparison to
the near-summer-like weather we had this past week. It will be a
week of clipper-like systems, and even light snow in the forecast.

A weak alberta clipper will track across southern canada Sunday
night and Monday, possibly bringing light rain to parts of the
northland. Its cold front will swing through the region later in the
day Monday, bringing another wave of cold air into Tuesday. There
could be some light snow Monday night and early Tuesday, but no
accumulation is expected. Tuesday will be particularly cold, with
highs only in the lower and middle 40s. We are forecasting partly
to mostly sunny skies at this time, but it could be cloudier, and
if so, then colder than this forecast.

A surface ridge will bring clearer skies for Tuesday night, bringing
a cold night. Temperatures will likely dip into the low 30s, if not

Another clipper, a little bit stronger one digging across northern
saskatchewan and then central and southern manitoba, will likely
dive through the northland Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This
system will have more precipitation than the previous clipper, and
the environment will be colder. Snow is more likely, and there could
be light accumulation.

The gfs, european, and canadian suggest the latter half of the week
will feature the most potent alberta clipper of the week. The models
indicate this clipper will track across south-central canada or the
northern plains, into the upper midwest and or great lakes region
Wednesday into Friday. The models suggest it might stall near the
upper midwest or great lakes, depending on the track, late Thursday
into Friday, as it runs up against ridging on the eastern side of
the continent. If it stalls, it could bring an extended period of
cloud cover and rain and or snow. Details are hard to speculate this
far out, but this will be the system to keep our eyes on the for the
potential for snow that could be measured in inches.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1227 am cdt Sun oct 22 2017
a cold front will continue east through far eastern minnesota
and wisconsin tonight. Showers and a few thunderstorms will occur
along and ahead of the front along with MVFR ifr conditions. The
wind will switch to west to southwest behind the front withVFR
conditions prevailing.VFR conditions will then continue into
Sunday evening. Gusty west to southwest winds will occur for a
time Sunday afternoon as mixing deepens.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 45 57 43 57 80 0 10 20
inl 43 59 43 52 80 0 30 60
brd 42 59 45 55 40 0 10 30
hyr 47 60 42 59 80 10 0 10
asx 50 61 43 60 80 30 0 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 4 am early this morning to 4 pm cdt
this afternoon for lsz146-147.

Small craft advisory from 4 am early this morning to 10 pm cdt
this evening for lsz140-141.

Short term... Dap
long term... Grochocinski
aviation... Melde

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGNA 26 mi25 min NNW 4.1 58°F 1004.8 hPa58°F
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN 26 mi51 min 58°F 1004.9 hPa58°F
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI 30 mi81 min SSE 21 G 21 60°F 1006.8 hPa (-0.9)
45006 - W SUPERIOR 48NM North of Ironwood, MI 37 mi91 min 5.8 G 7.8 58°F 52°F1 ft1005.7 hPa (-0.5)
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 71 mi81 min S 9.9 G 14 64°F 1005.1 hPa (-0.6)61°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Marais/Cook County Airport, MN27 mi27 minSSE 65.00 miFog/Mist57°F53°F88%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from CKC (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS4S5SE5SE4SE7S5S4SE4S7S10
1 day agoS5SW4S3CalmSW3CalmCalmS3S3S7S9S8S10
2 days agoSW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.