Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grand Marais, MN
March 28, 2024 8:45 AM EDT (12:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:40 AM Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 11:30 PM Moonset 7:49 AM |
LSZ162 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm- 353 Pm Edt Wed Mar 27 2024 /253 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 27 2024/
.gale warning in effect until 11 pm edt /10 pm cdt/ this evening - .
Late this afternoon - West gales to 35 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 4 to 8 feet occasionally to 10 feet.
Tonight - West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 20 to 30 knots late. Scattered snow showers. Freezing spray after midnight. Waves subsiding to 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet.
Thursday - West winds 20 to 30 knots. Freezing spray through early afternoon. Waves subsiding to 3 to 5 feet occasionally to 7 feet.
Thursday night - Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots late. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Friday - North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east 10 to 20 knots by mid afternoon. A slight chance of snow by mid afternoon. Waves building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night - East winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 20 knots after midnight. A chance of snow through midnight. Snow likely after midnight. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday - East winds 10 to 20 knots backing northeast by mid afternoon. A chance of snow through early afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night - West winds 10 to 20 knots veering northwest after midnight. Waves subsiding to calm to 2 feet.
Sunday - West winds 10 to 20 knots veering northeast. Waves calm to 2 feet.
Monday - Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots backing north. A chance of snow, possibly mixed with rain. Waves building to 1 to 3 feet.
LSZ100
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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 281128 AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 628 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Next chance for precipitation is on deck for Friday into Saturday as a clipper crosses the region. Some mixed precipitation is possible along with up to 3 inches of snow.
- A storm system will move across the Midwest early next week.
The trend with that system has been farther south. There is still a small chance (10-20%) of winter weather impacts over portions of the Northland focused over northwest Wisconsin.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 421 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Cyclonic flow and cold air advection aloft continued to wring any remaining precipitable water out of the atmosphere in the form of flurries and light snow showers. GOES-East night microphysics RGB revealed clouds loitering over portions of north-central Minnesota, the Arrowhead, and portions of northwest Wisconsin. The clouds were generally east/north of a line from approximately Rhinelander to Brule to Duluth to Hibbing to Waskish and north into extreme eastern Manitoba. Any additional snow accumulation should be negligible, less than one-quarter inch.
Skies will continue to clear as the upper-level low pressure moves farther away. Temperatures today will trend a little warmer added by a transition to warm air advection aloft, mostly sunny skies, and the late March sun angle. Thermometers should top out in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
Attention then shifts to Friday. Cirrus will spread over the Northland ahead of a fast-moving clipper forecast to propagate eastward across the region Friday and Saturday. Precipitation chances gradually increase from central Minnesota east and north with time. Temperatures aloft will support a wintry mix of rain, snow, and possibly a brief period of freezing rain from Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. There is a potential for freezing drizzle as the system departs Saturday morning. With this morning's forecast, the greatest snow amounts appear to be over north-central Minnsota into northwest Ontario. A dusting up to 3 inches is forecast. The band of heaviest precipitation will be somewhat narrow from north to south. Over the past several days, the trajectory of that low pressure system has shifted north and south at different times.
The axis of heaviest precipitation will continue to fluctuate.
Anyone with travel plans Friday evening or early Saturday morning should keep up with the latest forecast as details are refined.
The progressive upper-level pattern will continue through next week at least. There will be another chance of wintry precipitation early next week. Forecast guidance continues to shift the precipitation farther south and east. That said, several GEFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble members bring impactful snow accumulation early next week to northwest Wisconsin. That system has wobbled north and south with time as well. As of this morning there appears to be a 10-20 percent chance of several inches of snow. The most likely location is over southeast Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. There remains enough spread in the forecast to warrant a mention, although precip chances have dwindled over the past several days.
Temperatures trend warmer for the second half of next week with highs near normal. There will be several additional chances of flurries and light snow showers during the middle and latter portions of next week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals by this morning and will continue through the TAF period. Another round of gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon before they calm into the evening.
The occasional flurry could be possible at INL and HIB.
MARINE
Issued at 421 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Cold air advection aloft was generating weak instability over western Lake Superior early this morning. The colder air aloft compared to the warm lake surface temperatures was allowing efficient mixing into stronger winds a few thousand feet above the water level. Shoreline stations haven't reported particularly hazardous conditions for several hours. We expected, however, away from the shoreline deeper mixing is occurring and producing wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Winds will gradually subside this afternoon and evening. No changes to the existing Small Craft Advisories with this update. A low pressure system will move eastward across the region Tuesday afternoon through Saturday. Strong and gust winds will accompany that system and will likely bring another period of conditions hazardous to smaller vessels.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140>148-150.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 628 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Next chance for precipitation is on deck for Friday into Saturday as a clipper crosses the region. Some mixed precipitation is possible along with up to 3 inches of snow.
- A storm system will move across the Midwest early next week.
The trend with that system has been farther south. There is still a small chance (10-20%) of winter weather impacts over portions of the Northland focused over northwest Wisconsin.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 421 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Cyclonic flow and cold air advection aloft continued to wring any remaining precipitable water out of the atmosphere in the form of flurries and light snow showers. GOES-East night microphysics RGB revealed clouds loitering over portions of north-central Minnesota, the Arrowhead, and portions of northwest Wisconsin. The clouds were generally east/north of a line from approximately Rhinelander to Brule to Duluth to Hibbing to Waskish and north into extreme eastern Manitoba. Any additional snow accumulation should be negligible, less than one-quarter inch.
Skies will continue to clear as the upper-level low pressure moves farther away. Temperatures today will trend a little warmer added by a transition to warm air advection aloft, mostly sunny skies, and the late March sun angle. Thermometers should top out in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
Attention then shifts to Friday. Cirrus will spread over the Northland ahead of a fast-moving clipper forecast to propagate eastward across the region Friday and Saturday. Precipitation chances gradually increase from central Minnesota east and north with time. Temperatures aloft will support a wintry mix of rain, snow, and possibly a brief period of freezing rain from Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. There is a potential for freezing drizzle as the system departs Saturday morning. With this morning's forecast, the greatest snow amounts appear to be over north-central Minnsota into northwest Ontario. A dusting up to 3 inches is forecast. The band of heaviest precipitation will be somewhat narrow from north to south. Over the past several days, the trajectory of that low pressure system has shifted north and south at different times.
The axis of heaviest precipitation will continue to fluctuate.
Anyone with travel plans Friday evening or early Saturday morning should keep up with the latest forecast as details are refined.
The progressive upper-level pattern will continue through next week at least. There will be another chance of wintry precipitation early next week. Forecast guidance continues to shift the precipitation farther south and east. That said, several GEFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble members bring impactful snow accumulation early next week to northwest Wisconsin. That system has wobbled north and south with time as well. As of this morning there appears to be a 10-20 percent chance of several inches of snow. The most likely location is over southeast Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. There remains enough spread in the forecast to warrant a mention, although precip chances have dwindled over the past several days.
Temperatures trend warmer for the second half of next week with highs near normal. There will be several additional chances of flurries and light snow showers during the middle and latter portions of next week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals by this morning and will continue through the TAF period. Another round of gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon before they calm into the evening.
The occasional flurry could be possible at INL and HIB.
MARINE
Issued at 421 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Cold air advection aloft was generating weak instability over western Lake Superior early this morning. The colder air aloft compared to the warm lake surface temperatures was allowing efficient mixing into stronger winds a few thousand feet above the water level. Shoreline stations haven't reported particularly hazardous conditions for several hours. We expected, however, away from the shoreline deeper mixing is occurring and producing wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Winds will gradually subside this afternoon and evening. No changes to the existing Small Craft Advisories with this update. A low pressure system will move eastward across the region Tuesday afternoon through Saturday. Strong and gust winds will accompany that system and will likely bring another period of conditions hazardous to smaller vessels.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140>148-150.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
GD5 - 9099090 - Grand Marais, MN | 26 mi | 45 min | 20°F | 29.86 | 14°F | |||
KGNA | 26 mi | 49 min | W 7 | 21°F | 29.93 | 11°F | ||
ROAM4 - Rock of Ages, MI | 29 mi | 45 min | WNW 22G | 21°F | 29.93 | |||
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI | 71 mi | 45 min | W 23G | 22°F | 29.96 | 15°F |
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