Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Portsend, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:46PM Saturday February 23, 2019 4:46 PM PST (00:46 UTC) Moonrise 11:12PMMoonset 9:28AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 313 Pm Pst Sat Feb 23 2019
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Showers likely.
Sun..Variable wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NW wind to 10 kt becoming variable 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of rain in the evening.
Mon..NE wind 5 to 15 kt becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW wind 15 to 20 kt easing to 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tue..SE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..Variable wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..N wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..Light wind becoming variable to 10 kt. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
PZZ100 313 Pm Pst Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Light low level flow will gradually shift offshore today as a weak low drifts south towards the oregon coast. Winds along the strait and northern coast will increase to small craft advisory levels overnight and persist into Sunday afternoon. Fraser river outflow will also develop tonight and continue into Wednesday with high pressure over british columbia and lower pressure south of washington.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portsend, WA
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location: 48.1, -122.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 232342
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
342 pm pst Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis A cool upper level trough will remain over the area
through the weekend. This trough will bring showers with
temperatures remaining below normal. A system will move inland to
the south of the area Sunday night through Monday night. This
system will likely produce some light snow over mainly the
interior south of seattle. A cool level trough will continue to
give a chance of rain or snow showers at times midweek through
next weekend.

Short term tonight through Tuesday Observations and satellite
imagery show a cool upper trough centered just off the washington
coast. At the lower levels, arctic high pressure is parked over
the NW territories into alberta in central canada and will produce
increasing east to northeast flow over the area over the next
several days. A southern stream low is sitting near 39n 144w and
is followed by another southern stream low near 30n 160w as seen
on ascat and GOES imagery. In the short term, operational models
take the southern stream lows eastward and inland over northwest
oregon while upper level troughing intensifies just offshore and
high pressure to the northeast of the area sends cool to cold air
into western washington from the northeast.

The first system scoots fairly quickly eastnortheast into central
then northeastern oregon on Sunday. This is followed by the more
potent second system that will likely take a similar track. The
18z operational models are similar to their 12z counterparts and
the 12z ECMWF is similar to the GFS in keeping significant
moisture generally south of about olympia. While all of the
operational models are now lockstep in keeping the main system
well south of the area, there are still several GFS and ecmwf
ensemble members that track the second system more into seattle in
a similar manner as yesterday's 12z ECMWF that showed a chance of
heavy snowfall in seattle. This type of solution would occur if
the developing upper trough deepened more and a little farther
west than the operational runs... And it does not take much of a
difference to get the models to move in that direction. So there
remains considerable uncertainty in the forecast for later Sunday
into Monday night for the region from about everett or seattle and
hoquiam southward. Please monitor latest forecasts as we get
closer to the event.

If current forecasts hold, temperatures will remain several
degrees below normal and offshore flow will dry the lower levels
out from about everett-hoquiam northward. Areas to the south will
continue to have a chance of showers. Snow levels are expected to
remain below 1000 feet tonight into Tuesday, so any precipitation
that falls, especially during the late night and morning hours,
could be in the form of wet snow. In most cases, accumulations
will be light and brief. Albrecht

Long term Wednesday through Saturday A few days ago it looked
like we were going to have a change in the upper air pattern and
that spring -or at least normal temperatures- would develop. Well,
it now appears that the pattern change and warming has been pushed
farther out.

The extended forecast today follows a blend of models that keeps
shower chances with low snow levels and temperatures below normal
through next weekend. Shower chances will be highest over the
southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Precipitation
amounts are generally expected to be light and may fall as snow in
the lowlands -especially during the night and morning hours. Any
accumulations in the lowlands would be light and brief. Albrecht

Aviation An upper level trough will continue to linger over
the area, maintaining southwesterly flow aloft that decreases
through Sunday. The air is moist and unstable with scattered showers
and a low snow level. Showers this afternoon have been rain at the
low elevations, but with temps cooling overnight scattered snow
showers should be the rule by daybreak--if the showers don't give
out entirely overnight. Looking at the uw wrfgfs shows that
bremerton could have a couple inches of snow Sunday morning so i'll
put some snow showers in the pwt TAF at 00z--but the model might
very well be overdoing it and it is likely that the air will
stabilize overnight and the showers will decrease.

Ksea... Scattered showers will continue and overnight any showers
could mix with snow. Around daybreak Sunday as the flow turns
northerly we may see a few hours of scattered snow showers--the uw
wrfgfs shows an inch or two of snow on the kitsap peninsula Sunday
morning so it will be worth watching the radar later tonight and
Sunday morning to see if that pans out.

Marine Low level flow will gradually become offshore this
evening as a weak surface low offshore moves south towards the
oregon coast. Winds along the strait and northern coastal waters
could increase to small craft advisory levels overnight and
persist into Sunday afternoon. Fraser river outflow will also
develop tonight and continue into Wednesday as high pressure
persists over british columbia and a series of low pressure
systems track across southern washington northern oregon. 14

Hydrology No river flooding expected in the next 7 days.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory from 4 am to 4 pm pst Sunday for central
u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-coastal waters from cape
flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from
cape flattery to james island out 10 nm-east entrance u.S.

Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern inland waters
including the san juan islands-west entrance u.S. Waters
strait of juan de fuca.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 1 mi46 min ESE 12 G 15 44°F 46°F1018.7 hPa (-0.8)
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 16 mi56 min SSE 16 G 19 45°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.9)33°F
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 27 mi56 min ESE 7.8 G 12 44°F 46°F1 ft1017.5 hPa (-1.1)36°F
46120 30 mi47 min 42°F 1018.1 hPa36°F
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 30 mi76 min SSE 9.9 44°F 1019 hPa36°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 34 mi70 min ENE 8 G 11 44°F 46°F1018.1 hPa
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 35 mi46 min S 5.1 G 6 44°F 1018.9 hPa (-1.1)34°F
PTAW1 - 9444090 - Port Angeles, WA 36 mi70 min WNW 7 G 8.9 42°F 46°F1018 hPa
46118 44 mi66 min SSW 9.7 44°F 1018.2 hPa35°F

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Whidbey Island Naval Air Station - Ault Field, WA19 mi1.8 hrsSSE 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F33°F56%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from NUW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW18
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1 day ago--NW3CalmE3E4SE5SE6SE6E6E8E8E7E9E9SE11SE18
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2 days agoN8NW7NW9CalmN5N6E5S4NE6SE6E3CalmCalmNE3NE6CalmE5E5W3W5W5NW5W4NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Point Hudson, Washington
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Point Hudson
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Sat -- 12:06 AM PST     1.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM PST     9.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:27 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:06 PM PST     2.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:25 PM PST     7.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:12 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.72.84.367.79.19.69.17.75.842.82.32.63.44.55.76.87.47.46.65.34

Tide / Current Tables for Portsend, 0.5 miles S of Point Hudson, Washington Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.