Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warm Beach, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:59PM Friday July 21, 2017 3:40 PM PDT (22:40 UTC) Moonrise 2:48AMMoonset 6:29PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 259 Pm Pdt Fri Jul 21 2017
Tonight..NW wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less. A slight chance of rain.
Sat..SE wind to 10 kt becoming S 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of rain.
Sat night..NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sun through Mon night..NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..Variable wind 5 to 15 kt becoming nw 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..Variable wind to 10 kt becoming nw. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
PZZ100 259 Pm Pdt Fri Jul 21 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A weak warm front will move across the offshore waters tonight, leading to increased south and southeast winds over the coastal waters and only weak onshore flow through the strait this evening. Once the front dissipates over the inland waters on Saturday, moderate onshore flow will resume for Saturday through Monday. Onshore flow will become strong on Tuesday, with westerly gales possible in the strait.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warm Beach, WA
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location: 48.14, -122.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 212226
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
326 pm pdt Fri jul 21 2017

Synopsis An upper level trough and weak warm front will brush
western washington tonight and Saturday bringing clouds to all of
the area and a chance of light rain to the coast and north part. An
upper level ridge will gradually build northward over the region
late Saturday and Sunday and onshore flow will return for dry and
mild weather through most of next week.

Short term Westerly flow aloft prevails over the pacnw this
afternoon. Satellite imagery shows another upper level shortwave
trough offshore near 135w embedded in the W flow aloft, and headed
toward southern b.C. A weak warm front associated with the
shortwave trough will brush W wa for a chance of light rain mainly
over the coast and north part through Saturday. The interior from
about everett southward should be dry. Clouds from the approaching
system have covered mainly the north half of W wa this afternoon but
should engulf the south half of W wa tonight.

The strong upper level longwave ridge currently over the central
u.S. Will be shifting back over the SW u.S. On Saturday, and in the
process gradually building northward over the pacnw. The departing
shortwave trough and the building ridge will end the light rain over
the area Saturday night and start a minor warming and drying trend
for mostly sunny skies by Sunday afternoon. Guidance puts highs in
the 70s to lower 80s, but with 500 mb heights around 5840 meters,
this could be a tiny bit cool.

A flat upper level shortwave ridge will move across the area on
Monday. The weak surface ridge moving across southern b.C. Ahead of
the shortwave ridge will give W wa a short period of northerly
offshore flow. This little bit of additional warming combined with
sunny skies should produce the warmest day for the next week. Highs
should be in the mid to upper 70s coast and N interior to the lower
to mid 80s around puget sound and over the SW interior. Kam

Long term The 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF solutions have diverged so
confidence in the details in the long term has diminished. Both
models eventually bring an offshore upper level low to the central
b.C. Coast then carve out an upper level trough over W wa. The gfs
is faster with SW flow aloft developing over the area on Tuesday.

The ECMWF is about a day slower with the trough. Both models have a
shortwave crossing W wa on Thursday with a little QPF for some
showers, but confidence is low. Both models also maintain a large
surface ridge offshore, which will keep low level onshore flow going
over W wa. Developments with the upper level features will impact
the daily strength of the onshore flow so there is less certainty
that a moderate to strong marine push will develop Tuesday evening.

Best course for now is to stick with the current forecast and wait
for the models to sort out their solutions. At the least, the
continuing onshore flow will maintain our typically mild summer
weather pattern. Kam

Aviation Moderate westerly flow aloft will continue through
Saturday. A weak warm front through this evening will support
plenty of clouds in the 100-200 layer today, and some sprinkles or
light rain will brush the northwest olympic peninsula and
possibly the far north interior near bli at any time through
tonight. On Saturday, a moister air mass will arrive behind the
warm front, so CIGS of 030-060 will be common on Saturday. The air
mass will be stable and increasingly moist.

Ksea... Mainly thin mid-level cloud layers today between 100-200. A
moister low-level air mass will arrive late tonight, leading to
cig development in the 030-050 range after midnight and continuing
through Saturday morning. A north wind shift is in the TAF for a
few hours this evening, but confidence in that wind shift is low.

Haner

Marine A weak warm front will move across vancouver island
tonight. It will pass close enough to cause southerly winds over
the coastal waters to just reach 21 knots, necessitating a small
craft advisory for all but the southernmost coastal marine zones.

As for the strait, onshore gradients will be weaker than usual
this evening.

The warm front will dissipate on Saturday, allowing the resumption
of routine moderate onshore gradients from Saturday pm through
Monday. This should bring small craft advisory strength westerlies
through the strait each of those evenings, as well as a turn to
northwest winds over the coastal waters.

Onshore gradients will become strong on Tuesday pm, so that is the
next possibility for westerly gales through the strait. Haner

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Saturday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters
from james island to point grenville out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Saturday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 21 mi40 min W 8 G 11 62°F 1021.5 hPa (-0.3)
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 23 mi70 min N 5.1 67°F 1021 hPa59°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 28 mi40 min NW 8.9 G 8.9 57°F 1021.4 hPa (+0.0)
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 33 mi40 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 1020.6 hPa (-0.7)54°F
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 37 mi40 min NW 1 G 4.1 69°F 56°F1020.5 hPa (-0.8)
46118 42 mi45 min ENE 1.9 66°F 1020.6 hPa53°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 44 mi64 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 63°F 51°F1021.2 hPa
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 44 mi50 min WNW 3.9 G 3.9 56°F 53°F1020.3 hPa (-0.6)53°F

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA11 mi44 minVar 310.00 miOvercast73°F52°F48%1021 hPa
Everett Snohomish County, WA17 mi47 minVar 610.00 miOvercast72°F50°F46%1020.8 hPa
Whidbey Island Naval Air Station - Ault Field, WA21 mi44 minW 510.00 miOvercast62°F51°F67%1022.2 hPa
Burlington/Mount Vernon, Skagit Regional Airport, WA23 mi45 minVar 49.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F55°F57%1021 hPa

Wind History from AWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW8NW10NW11NW9NW10NW4--S3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmNW3CalmCalm--3S5W75Calm3
1 day agoNW6N7NW11W7NW7NW3N4N6W5W4CalmSE3CalmSE4SE6SE9SE8SE6SW5S8S10S8SW8S9
2 days agoNW11NW10NW10W8NW8NW7--CalmN6N5NW4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5S535S6

Tide / Current Tables for Kayak Point, Washington
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Kayak Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:38 AM PDT     11.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:48 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:45 AM PDT     -2.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:16 PM PDT     11.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:28 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:22 PM PDT     6.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.910.311.211.410.48.55.82.8-0.1-1.9-2.3-1.30.93.86.68.910.41110.8108.77.36.66.7

Tide / Current Tables for Mutiny Bay, 3.3 miles SE of, Washington Current
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Mutiny Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:36 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:49 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:34 AM PDT     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:33 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:47 AM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:46 AM PDT     1.81 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:24 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:50 PM PDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:29 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:00 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:26 PM PDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:31 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.910.5-0.4-1.4-1.6-1.5-1.3-1-0.7-0.30.61.81.71.41.10.60.2-0.8-0.7-0.400.40.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.