Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Harbor, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:15PM Monday April 23, 2018 7:58 PM PDT (02:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:59AMMoonset 2:16AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 224 Pm Pdt Mon Apr 23 2018
Tonight..NW wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..Light wind becoming N 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves less than 1 ft becoming 2 ft or less in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW wind 5 to 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..NW wind to 10 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..NW wind 5 to 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..NW wind to 10 kt becoming variable after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..Variable wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S wind to 10 kt becoming variable. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 224 Pm Pdt Mon Apr 23 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..High pressure inland with thermally induced low pressure along the oregon and washington coasts will persist until about Thursday morning. The thermal low pressure will move inland on Thursday with onshore flow developing Thursday night and Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Harbor, WA
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location: 48.25, -122.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 232247 aaa
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
345 pm pdt Mon apr 23 2018... Updated
updated marine headlines.

Synopsis A ridge aloft will move into eastern washington
tonight and persist into Thursday. Surface high pressure over
southeastern british columbia combined with a developing thermal
trough of low pressure along the coast will give low-level
offshore flow. The ridge aloft and offshore flow at lower levels
will give highs into the 70s across much of the area Tuesday and
Wednesday, and highs will reach into the lower 80s in some
locations on Thursday. An upper level low will approach from the
southwest late in the week bringing a return to seasonably cool
temperatures and a chance of showers Friday through next weekend.

Short term Other than a few cirrus, conditions are clear across
the region and temperatures are warming rapidly as offshore flow
develops. To varying degrees, high pressure aloft and low level
offshore flow will give very nice weather to the area through
Thursday!
after highs near 70 today, we will see highs into the 70s on
Tuesday (about 5 degrees higher than today) with a possible lower
80 in the far south interior. Low temperatures tonight will fall
into the 30s in the typically coldest locations (like arlington
and olympia airport), but will generally be about 5 degrees warmer
than this morning. Low temperatures will warm further on Tuesday
night as the air mass continues to warm.

The high temperature forecast for Wednesday is a bit trickier than
the one for Tuesday. A weak shortwave trough will be moving over
the top of the west coast ridge Tuesday night allowing heights to
fall a bit and offshore flow to relax somewhat. Low level
thickness forecasts from all of the models, however, show a
slight increase by Wednesday afternoon as ridging and offshore
flow strengthens. So, temperatures on Wednesday are likely to be
the same or a degree or two higher than on Tuesday. High
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will threaten the record daily
maxima at many locations, but will likely fall just short.

Thursday will be the warmest day of this upcoming warm spell and
will be the warmest of the year so far. Current thinking is for in
the mid 70s to lower 80s across the interior and potentially on
the coast as the upper level ridge rebounds over the area and
offshore flow peaks. Daily record highs are a bit warmer on
Thursday, so again records will be threatened - but temperatures
will likely fall just short.

Forecast temperatures are a blend of the previous forecast and a
mean of the various short-term models. Albrecht

Long term There continues to be rather large differences
between the GFS solution and the ECMWF canadian solutions today.

All models agree that a marine push will begin Thursday evening,
but the ECMWF canadian solutions hold most of the precipitation
just to the south of the forecast area as a weaker shortwave
trough rotates around a low that will move inland over the
southern half of oregon. The GFS is much more robust with the
strength of the shortwave trough and is farther north with its
track. The GFS develops a rather heavy rain band with a
deformation zone over western washington Friday through Saturday
night. The GFS total precipitation amounts are well over an inch
at seatac and some solutions are wetter still. The ECMWF is much,
much more tame. At this time, a model blend was used to populate
the forecasts and were weighted more heavily toward the ecmwf. The
models are all showing good continuity with their previous
solutions; maybe one of them will 'give in' on the next couple of
forecast cycles.

One sure bet for the upcoming weekend will be much cooler
temperatures.

Temperatures will fall significantly on Friday. A model blend would
suggest upper 50s for highs on Friday while the ECMWF would suggest
highs more into the mid 60s. A weighted blend toward the ECMWF was
used today. After Friday, temperatures fall to a few degrees below
for the weekend as deeper cloud cover and precipitation chances
increase and the air mass aloft continues to cool. Albrecht

Aviation An upper level ridge is over the region with dry
stable air. At the surface there is high pressure centered over
southeast british columbia and thermally induced low pressure
extending north along the oregon coast.

Ksea... Clear skies and a northerly breeze.

Marine High pressure inland and thermally induced low pressure
along the oregon and washington coast will persist until about
Thursday morning. Northerly flow down puget sound should peak around
20kt this afternoon and evening but overall the flow should become
become more easterly for some areas. Small craft advisory strength
easterlies are forecast at the west entrance of the strait of juan
de fuca around CAPE flattery. The thermally induced low pressure
will move inland on Thursday with onshore flow developing Thursday
night and Friday.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect til noon pdt Tuesday for the
coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm
and the west entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory in effect until 900 pm pdt this evening
for puget sound and hood canal.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 15 mi88 min N 15 56°F 1024 hPa44°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 17 mi46 min WSW 4.1 G 6 60°F 49°F1024.3 hPa
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 18 mi68 min WSW 5.1 G 5.1 54°F 1023.9 hPa (-2.2)44°F
46118 33 mi63 min NW 3.9 55°F 1023.7 hPa40°F
46120 34 mi57 min N 12 57°F 1023 hPa43°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 34 mi82 min N 1.9 G 6 58°F 49°F1024 hPa
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 36 mi68 min N 5.8 G 5.8 53°F 49°F1024 hPa (-2.2)43°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 41 mi58 min NNE 12 G 12 55°F 1023.3 hPa (-1.5)42°F
CPMW1 44 mi46 min NNW 5.1 G 6 55°F 48°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 45 mi40 min NW 6 G 7 55°F 1023.4 hPa
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 46 mi40 min NW 1.9 G 5.1 64°F 49°F1023.1 hPa

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Whidbey Island Naval Air Station - Ault Field, WA11 mi62 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F46°F70%1025.1 hPa
Burlington/Mount Vernon, Skagit Regional Airport, WA16 mi63 minNW 1110.00 miFair59°F39°F48%1023.7 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA18 mi62 minNW 810.00 miFair63°F39°F43%1024 hPa

Wind History from NUW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmE5CalmN4S4SE4CalmNW4NW6N8NW8NW9W8W6W7W6W7SW7
1 day agoW13W14W18
G23
W15W15--W12NW10NW6CalmE3CalmW6NW8NW11NW7W9NW7W8W9W9W6W5W3
2 days agoCalmS4SE44S20S16
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Tide / Current Tables for Stanwood, Washington
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Stanwood
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Mon -- 12:56 AM PDT     7.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:15 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:35 AM PDT     1.84 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:25 AM PDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:58 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:18 PM PDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.776.86.15.24.13.12.31.923.55.25.45.14.53.82.921.10.40.10.41.63.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mutiny Bay, 3.3 miles SE of, Washington Current
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Mutiny Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:34 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:27 AM PDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:16 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:05 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:17 AM PDT     0.24 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:58 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:55 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:00 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:01 PM PDT     -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:05 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:07 PM PDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.6-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.200.40.3-0-0.7-1-1-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.3-01.31.31.10.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.