Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
La Conner, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:06AMSunset 9:16PM Thursday June 22, 2017 7:01 AM PDT (14:01 UTC) Moonrise 3:17AMMoonset 6:38PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 243 Am Pdt Thu Jun 22 2017
Today..NW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..NW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Mon..W wind 15 to 25 kt becoming sw 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ100 243 Am Pdt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A ne-sw oriented surface ridge about 400 nm nw of cape flattery, along with a strong heat low over california and southern oregon will set up northerly gradients over the waters through Sat night. Weak gradients are expected Sunday, then onshore flow will quickly increase on Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near La Conner town, WA
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location: 48.39, -122.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 221326
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
330 am pdt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis A building upper ridge will provide dry weather and a
warming trend through the weekend. The ridge will shift inland early
next week with onshore flow developing. Temperatures will start to
moderate Monday with a return to more seasonable temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather will persist but night and
morning clouds will return next week.

Short term Fog stratus satellite imagery shows clear skies across
western washington this morning with the exception of some patchy
stratus along the north coast. High pressure will continue building
over the eastern pacific the next few days providing dry weather
over our region. Light onshore flow will become northerly on Friday
with gradually warmer temperatures each day. Sea-breeze effects may
hinder potential highs for locations on the water but temperatures
inland from the water could reach the low to mid 80s on Friday.

The ridge migrates eastward directly over the pacific northwest by
Saturday. Models remain in good agreement that 500 mb heights reach
near 5880-5900m with the thermal heat low developing north along the
oregon washington coast. Low level offshore flow will develop,
allowing the air mass to warm well into the upper 80s and lower 90s
over most interior areas except cooler along the strait and north
interior. Typically, the warmest day near the coast will occur
before inland temperatures peak. Forecast temperatures are well
above MOS at the coast with the hottest day likely on Saturday for
places like forks and aberdeen. Temperatures across the southwest
interior will be similarly warm, close to 90.

Long term Models agree that the upper ridge axis will remain over
western washington through Sunday, then begin to flatten and shift
slowly inland on Monday. Thermally induced surface low pressure
along the coast will shift inland over the interior lowlands Sunday
afternoon. Offshore flow will become light in the afternoon with a
lack of sea-breeze effects producing the hottest day of the year
around greater puget sound. Gfs ECMWF mos give 95 92 for sea-tac,
either of which would break the record of 88 set in 2006. Given this
is day 4, decided to keep temperatures little changed which mirror
the more conservative ECMWF guidance.

A transition to onshore flow begins Sunday evening into Monday. The
switch looks to occur at the coast first Sunday night, then
gradually develop inland sometime on Monday. Both the GFS ecmwf
appear to show onshore winds reaching puget sound in the afternoon
which would halt afternoon warming from reaching much above 80.

Stayed close to MOS which gives low 80s but did indicate some upper
80s east of puget sound near the foothills where onshore flow may
arrive a bit later.

Stronger onshore flow should flood marine air and stratus into
western washington Monday night and Tuesday morning, repeating again
on Wednesday. There should be partial afternoon sunshine each day
but highs will fall back closer to average. The dry pattern appears
likely to continue but will need to watch a trough that will brush
the north part of the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Mercer

Aviation A flat but fairly strong upper ridge axis near 135w
will amplify a bit and move to 130w over the next 24-30 hours.

Moderate northwest flow aloft today, becoming lighter tonight and
Friday. The air mass will be stable, with further drying this
morning. Clear skies will prevail, except for some lingering
marine stratus this morning near the north coast and near the
strait.

Ksea... Clear skies for the next 30 hours with prevailing north
wind. Haner

Marine A northeast-southwest oriented surface ridge will remain
about 400 nautical miles northwest of CAPE flattery through
Saturday. Meanwhile, a strong heat low over california and
southern oregon will set up northerly gradients over the waters.

On Sunday gradients will weaken, then onshore flow will quickly
increase on Sunday night. Haner

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 9 am pdt this morning for coastal
waters from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from james island to point grenville 10 to
60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape
shoalwater 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough bar until 6 am pdt early this
morning for grays harbor bar.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 5 mi92 min Calm 44°F 1026 hPa44°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 19 mi62 min S 4.1 G 4.1 51°F 1026.5 hPa (-0.0)
46118 23 mi77 min ESE 7.8 54°F 1026 hPa51°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 24 mi50 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 51°F 52°F1027.2 hPa
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 29 mi86 min SW 1 G 2.9 47°F 51°F1026.5 hPa
CPMW1 35 mi50 min ENE 1 G 1.9 55°F
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 35 mi42 min S 3.9 G 3.9 52°F 51°F1026.3 hPa50°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 35 mi56 min N 1.9 G 4.1 1026.2 hPa
46120 44 mi44 min E 1.9 52°F 1025.9 hPa48°F

Wind History for Port Townsend, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington/Mount Vernon, Skagit Regional Airport, WA7 mi67 minENE 39.00 miFair46°F44°F93%1026.7 hPa
Whidbey Island Naval Air Station - Ault Field, WA8 mi66 minN 010.00 miPatches Fog48°F43°F83%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from BVS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S4S55
G11
SE7S53Calm4NW75NW6W53CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4Calm
1 day agoS5S4S6S5S8S5SW11
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SW9S5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S4SE5SE6S5S6
2 days agoNW6NW5NW7NW8NW10NW9NW9NW6W9
G14
NW9W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE5S7S5

Tide / Current Tables for La Conner, Washington
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La Conner
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:15 AM PDT     10.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:16 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:49 AM PDT     -2.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:44 PM PDT     10.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:37 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:07 PM PDT     6.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.18.59.810.510.39.27.24.82.2-0.1-1.7-2.1-1.20.93.66.48.69.810.19.68.67.46.46

Tide / Current Tables for Deception Pass, Washington Current
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Deception Pass
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:48 AM PDT     -0.06 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:17 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:11 AM PDT     -7.75 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:31 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:46 AM PDT     6.75 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:22 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:57 PM PDT     -6.91 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:38 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:20 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:57 PM PDT     5.22 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.73.1-2.4-5.3-7-7.7-7.4-6.1-3.92.65.16.46.76.14.72.3-4.4-6.4-6.9-6.4-5.1-2.92.84.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.