Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marblemount, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 4:48PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 12:49 AM PST (08:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:10AMMoonset 5:34PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ134 Admiralty Inlet- 900 Pm Pst Tue Jan 16 2018
Tonight..SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..SE wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Wed night..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely in the evening then showers likely after midnight.
Thu..S wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 4 ft.
Thu night..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..S wind 15 to 25 kt rising to 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 5 ft.
Fri night..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sat..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
PZZ100 900 Pm Pst Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Small craft advisory level winds over most waters tonight will increase to gale force Wednesday. Another front will arrive Thursday. Westerly swells higher than 25 feet are possible on the coast Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marblemount, WA
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location: 48.54, -121.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 170537
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
937 pm pst Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis A strong frontal system will bring rain Wednesday and
Wednesday night. A broad upper trough will traverse the area
Thursday and Friday, keeping a cool, showery pattern in place.

Large waves are likely to impact the coast on Thursday. Unsettled
weather will continue into this weekend, with a front enhancing
rainfall and mountain snow around Saturday night or Sunday. An
upper ridge may build around next Tuesday for a drying trend.

Short term Currently in the midst of a brief dry lull. This
will not last.

A large, expansive low pressure system is currently in the process
of fully maturing way out between 140w and 145w. This feature is
reflected both at the surface and aloft. At the surface, a 960-965
mb low center will move to near 49n 137w late Wednesday. At the
500 mb level, a 510 decameter low center will be superimposed over
the surface low by late Wednesday, meaning it will become
vertically stacked and barotropic at that time. In advance of this
broad deep upper low and trough, strong southwest flow aloft will
develop over western washington Wednesday. At first, this will
push a warm front across the area early in the day. Southeast
gradients will become strong. Have expanded the wind advisory to
cover the standard 4 north interior zones and the two coastal
zones. The current expiration time of 6 pm Wednesday may
eventually need to be extended into Wednesday evening. The
bellingham to port hardy pressure gradient is forecast to reach
near +14 mb Wednesday evening, which is a good indicator for the
classic southeast-sucker wind pattern.

As the entire pattern shifts a little further east, a cold front
will be able to move onshore on Wed evening. It will come with a
quick burst of heavier rain lasting a couple hours.

The front will be followed by a lot of cold air aloft, with 500 mb
temps around -33c on Thursday, then -30c on Friday. With the
ensuing instability and cyclonic southwest flow aloft, expect
plenty of convective showers. On Thursday, stronger instability,
large-scale ascent, and a more strongly sheared wind environment
could support a few thunderstorms. By Friday, the upper trough
axis will be quickly weakening and de-amplifying as it moves
across western washington, resulting in a net modest rise of upper
heights.

The associated upper trough and the strong surface wind field
will cover a large expanse of the northeast pacific on Wednesday,
generating swell that will bring coastal impacts on Thursday. A
coastal flood watch is in effect. See the marine section below for
more insight. Haner

Long term A more progressive and zonal pattern will set up from
Saturday through Monday. A quick-moving front will sweep through
late Saturday and early Sunday with an enhancement to precip. In
all likelihood, snow levels will not rise above 3000 feet during
this period, this could mean moderate to heavy snow for the
mountains on Saturday and or Sunday.

By Monday, upper heights start to rise, and precip chances start
to diminish. Next Tuesday appears to feature a daylong respite
between weather systems. Haner

Aviation Moderate westerly flow aloft tonight will become more
southwesterly Wednesday as a warm front moves from south to north
through the area. At the surface, southeasterly winds will increase
tonight and Wednesday. The air mass is moist and stable. Dry weather
is expected overnight in advance of a frontal system Wednesday.

Conditions are goodVFR. Patchy fog is possible tonight. High
ceilings will develop tonight and will fall Wednesday, thoughVFR
conditions will probably remain in place during the day in most
places. The coast will probably become MVFR in the afternoon as rain
develops.

Ksea... Discussion above applies. Southeast wind 10-15 kts tonight
becoming more southerly Wednesday. Chb

Marine Small craft advisories are in effect over most waters
tonight as a warm front approaches the coast as it moves south to
north. By Wednesday most of these convert to gale warnings as the
front nears and gradients tighten. The offshore coastal waters will
have the strongest winds; they may approach storm force. After a
brief lull Wednesday night, a cold front will move through the area
that may generate gales again on Thursday.

Strong southwest winds well off the coast will generate large swells
that will reach the washington coast Thursday. Models have been
consistent in bringing westerly swells of 25-30 ft to the coast,
with even larger swells offshore. Seas have not reached 30 ft
at buoy 41 since december 2015. A coastal flood watch is in effect
for the central coast and will probably expand it to the north
coast later tonight. This sort of coastal flooding mainly affects
the beaches as waves run far up beyond where they usually do.

Exposed towns along the beaches, such as ocean shores and westport,
could have waves crash over their levees, and sea water could
collect in low areas. Chb

Hydrology A brief period of heavy rain is possible in the
skokomish basin on Wednesday evening. This will cause the river to
rise on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Current rainfall
forecasts support bringing the skokomish to within a foot of flood
stage, but it is still not expected to flood.

The next round of heavier rain will come around Saturday night or
Sunday. This rainfall should cause most rivers to rise, but only
the skokomish appears to be at risk of flooding at this time. An
inhibiting factor will be that snow levels could remain at or
below 3000 feet, which would reduce runoff down the river.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Wind advisory from 10 am to 6 pm pst Wednesday for admiralty
inlet area-central coast-north coast-san juan county-
western skagit county-western whatcom county.

Coastal flood watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening for central coast.

Pz... Small craft advisory for rough bar until 4 am pst Thursday for
grays harbor bar.

Small craft advisory until 3 am pst Wednesday for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal
waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10
nm-coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater
10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape
shoalwater out 10 nm.

Gale warning from 3 am Wednesday to 4 am pst Thursday for
coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60
nm-coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10
nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville 10
to 60 nm-coastal waters from james island to point
grenville out 10 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to
cape shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point
grenville to CAPE shoalwater out 10 nm-east entrance u.S.

Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern inland waters
including the san juan islands.

Small craft advisory until 3 am pst Wednesday for east entrance
u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern inland waters
including the san juan islands.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm pst Wednesday for central u.S.

Waters strait of juan de fuca-west entrance u.S. Waters
strait of juan de fuca.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 55 mi80 min E 8.9 47°F 1020 hPa40°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 73 mi50 min ENE 14 G 18 47°F 1019.1 hPa (-2.9)
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 76 mi50 min ESE 2.9 G 6 50°F 47°F1020.6 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Cherry Point, WA
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NE17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Arlington Municipal Airport, WA46 mi54 minSSE 410.00 miFair39°F37°F93%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from AWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SE6E11SE12S7S9SE10SE13SE15
G19
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S11S9S9S8E7SE9E5CalmN5N8S4
1 day agoCalmN4NW3CalmCalmW3CalmNE4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmE3Calm3SE3E5SW4S7S5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmN3CalmN3N4CalmCalmCalmN4--CalmW3CalmCalmNW3Calm--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Marysville, Quilceda Creek, Washington
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Marysville
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Wed -- 06:19 AM PST     11.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:11 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:11 PM PST     6.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:30 PM PST     9.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:39 PM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:41 PM PST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.31.546.79.110.611.311.210.59.27.96.96.46.77.58.79.59.68.87.35.330.9-0.5

Tide / Current Tables for Stanwood, Washington
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Stanwood
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:59 AM PST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM PST     7.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:53 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:12 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:45 PM PST     2.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:35 PM PST     6.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:39 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-0.30.42.24.36.37.37.576.253.82.82.22.13.75.96.365.44.63.52.41.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.