Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Birch Bay, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 6:07PM Sunday October 22, 2017 11:07 PM PDT (06:07 UTC) Moonrise 9:30AMMoonset 7:10PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 900 Pm Pdt Sun Oct 22 2017
Tonight..SW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..Light wind becoming nw to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW wind to 10 kt becoming S 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Wed..S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming se 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming N to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..N wind 5 to 15 kt easing to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..NE wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 900 Pm Pdt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Residual onshore flow this evening will become weak offshore flow overnight as a surface ridge forms over western wa. The developing ridge will produce weak offshore flow across the area through Tuesday. A weak cold front will move southeast across the area Wednesday. Northerly offshore flow will prevail Thursday and Friday as a ridge builds over southern british columbia.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Birch Bay, WA
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location: 48.75, -122.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 230415 cca
afdsew
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service seattle wa
915 pm pdt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis Isolated showers are still possible overnight,
otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected over western washington
through Tuesday. Flooding continues on a few rivers but waters
continue to recede. A weak system is expected to dip into the area
Wednesday for some light rain before dry conditions resume for the
remainder of the week.

Short term Current radar imagery is mostly clear with only an
isolated patch of showers over portions of whatcom and skagit
counties... Mainly over the mountains. The remainder of the area is
generally dry. Satellite trend showing a downward turn with regards
to cloud cover... Although some lingering low to mid level clouds
remain at the time of this writing. With the threat of any sort of
precip pretty much over... Probably safe to take down the inherited
flood watch for lewis and thurston counties.

Models remain consisted on upper level ridging taking hold of not
only the area but much of the western us as well Monday and Tuesday
allowing for gradually clearing skies and increasing high
temperatures into the lower to mid 60s in many lowland locations.

Lingering low level moisture Monday night and Tuesday morning will
likely give rise to fog... Particularly in prone locations.

Each successive model run has not be kind to the system for
Wednesday... As the current GFS 00z run has it looking like little
more than a blip on the radar. While increased clouds... And thus
somewhat cooler temps... Can be expected... Current solutions not
really favoring much in the way of precip. Will be curious to see
what newest ECMWF shows and will wait for that input before altering
inherited forecast.

That being said... No need for forecast updates at this time. Smr

Long term From previous discussion... After the weak front
Wednesday, an upper ridge will build off the coast, then slowly move
inland through the weekend. This should give clear skies, dry
weather, and highs mostly in the 60s Thursday through Sunday. Burke

Hydrology With rain pretty much ending over the area... Local
rivers experiencing flood conditions continue to trend downward and
the threat of any additional new flooding is essentially nil. Check
the latest flood statement (seaflssew) to monitor which western
washington rivers remain in flood stage. The only river that
continues to trend upward is the white river near r street. Current
forecast suggests that it is yet to crest... Although some pause
about whether or not it will meet forecasted peak which would still
fall short of flood stage. As most recent observations do not offer
a clear picture on this... Will pass decision as to whether or not to
cancel this particular warning on to next shift. Smr

Aviation The flow aloft over W wa will become wnw tonight as a
low amplitude upper level ridge builds over the region. The air
mass will gradually dry, especially at mid and upper levels, with
low level onshore flow turning weakly offshore tonight.

A few isolated light showers were still hanging around at 04z but
they should be gone in the next few hours. The mid and upper
levels of the air mass have dried out, but the lower levels are
still moist enough from the recent rains that patchy ifr fog or
low stratus will form 06z-18z. Otherwise conditions will beVFR.

Ksea... GoodVFR conditions are expected tonight. Model guidance
has temp-dewpoint spreads down to 2 or 3 degrees 06z-16z. The
models maintainVFR conditions, but this is borderline for
possibly some low stratus to form, so confidence is not that high.

Surface winds will be S 6-10kt through 06z then weaken to SE 4-5kt
overnight. Kam

Marine Residual onshore flow this evening will turn weakly
offshore late tonight and continue through Tuesday, as a surface
ridge builds over the pacific northwest.

A SCA for hazardous seas will remain in effect for the coast and
w entrance to the strait through Monday evening. Westerly swell
10 feet or higher generated by recent storms will continue through
Monday evening.

A weak cold front will move southeast across the area on
Wednesday, with small craft advisory winds over the coastal waters
and in the strait of juan de fuca. Northerly offshore flow will
follow the front Thursday and Friday as a ridge builds over
southern british columbia. Kam

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 11 pm pdt Monday
for coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to
60 nm-coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island out
10 nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville
10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from james island to point
grenville out 10 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to
cape shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point
grenville to CAPE shoalwater out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough bar until 11 pm pdt Monday for
grays harbor bar.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 pm pdt Monday
for west entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPMW1 11 mi56 min S 6 G 8.9 52°F 50°F
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 11 mi50 min SSW 9.9 G 11 52°F 50°F1029.6 hPa
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 15 mi92 min Calm G 1.9 50°F 50°F1030 hPa
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 30 mi98 min SE 1.9 47°F 1030 hPa45°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 30 mi68 min E 6 G 6 50°F 1030.3 hPa (+2.4)
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 45 mi56 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 51°F 50°F1031 hPa

Wind History for Cherry Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA3 mi73 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F44°F87%1029.8 hPa
Friday Harbor Airport, WA17 mi75 minN 08.00 miFair46°F46°F100%1030.3 hPa
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA19 mi75 minSSE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy51°F45°F80%1030.7 hPa

Wind History from ORS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9
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1 day agoS7E3S9S9
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2 days ago3S5S6S4S3S5S6S7S8S8S9S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Echo Bay, Sucia Islands, Strait of Georgia, Washington
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Echo Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:00 AM PDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:44 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:21 AM PDT     8.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:48 PM PDT     5.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:23 PM PDT     7.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:47 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.50.3-0.10.41.63.24.96.57.78.38.37.87.16.45.95.766.577.47.46.85.64.1

Tide / Current Tables for Parker Reef Light, 1 mile North of, Washington Current
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Parker Reef Light
Click for MapFlood direction 65 true
Ebb direction 265 true

Mon -- 03:09 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:19 AM PDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:44 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:26 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:29 AM PDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:53 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:06 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:06 PM PDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:47 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:02 PM PDT     -0.98 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.10.511.41.61.40.5-0.2-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.50.50.10.3-0.2-0.8-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.