Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Birch Bay, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:40PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 2:10 AM PDT (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:06AMMoonset 8:54PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 131 Am Pdt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am pdt early this morning...
Rest of tonight..SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Wed..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain in the morning then showers likely.
Wed night..SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 1 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 1 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW wind 15 to 25 kt...easing late. Wind waves 1 to 4 ft.
Fri..S wind 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW wind 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 1 to 4 ft.
PZZ100 131 Am Pdt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A warm front will move across the area early Wed and will be followed by a cold front. High pres offshore with lower pres inland will result in onshore or westerly flow on Thu.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Birch Bay, WA
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location: 48.75, -122.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 290429
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
929 pm pdt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis Another warm front will bring more rain and higher
mountain snow to the area later tonight through Wednesday morning.

Low pressure will move into vancouver island with the associated
cold front pushing through western washington by midday Wednesday.

An upper trough will follow on Thursday resulting in showers and
sun breaks. High pressure will build Friday and Friday night
providing mostly dry weather. Weak fronts may affect the region
Sunday and early next week.

Short term Another batch of rain is moving onshore this evening
ahead of a warm front that will move into the area early Wednesday
morning. The warm front will be quickly followed by a cold front
associated with a low that is developing well offshore and moving
toward central or northern vancouver island midday Wednesday.

Precipitation will be heaviest on the western portion of the
olympic peninsula (where 2 or 3 inches more can be expected) and
in the cascades while ligher amounts are expected in the central
portions of the puget sound area where there will be rain
shadowing going on. The warm air is taking its time getting into
the north cascades this evening and mt baker is still getting
snowfall at 5000 feet. The delay in the warm up is supported by
the 00z NAM solutions this evening. Based on that, will extend the
winter weather advisory into late Wednesday morning.

Rain will become showers on Wednesday as low pressure moves into
vancouver island and cooler, somewhat drier air filters into
western washington. Snow levels will drop back down to most pass
levels and the strong flow give some orographic help in snowfall.

But the lack of moisture should still keep amounts limited to just
a few inches or less, including the passes. A meso low is still
expected to develop on the north kitsap peninsula. Latest models
are a little stronger that yesterday but the kbli-kpdx gradient
never reaches +10 mb on most models and the wrf-gfs keeps winds
generally sub-advisory from late morning to the afternoon.

Strongest southerly gusts will occur from central/north puget
sound to around admiralty inlet, reaching 35 to 40 mph at times. A
westerly push down the strait may also bring some gusts to the
land portions of the strait and west side of whidbey island but
still sub-advisory. With recent rainfall and saturated soil, it
will not be surprising to see some trees topple in gusts of 35 or
40 mph.

The weather begins to quiet down Wednesday night and Thursday. An
upper trough will move across the region bringing showers. A puget
sound convergence zone is also possible, with the best chance of
this bringing enhanced showers to snohomish and king counties.

Showers will taper off Sunday afternoon and most areas will see sun
breaks.

High pressure aloft builds Thursday night and Friday giving a period
of dry weather. The low level flow will be light and 500 mb heights
over 5700m will support warming temperatures, possibly reaching near
60s from around the central sound to the southwest interior,
especially inland from the water. If sea-tac reaches 60, it will be
the first time this year. Albrecht/mercer

Long term From the previous long term discussion: the
gfs/ecmwf are in fair agreement agreement on showing the ridge
flattening Friday night and Saturday as a system rides over the
top of the ridge. Increased cloud cover should be expected, and a
chance of light rain, especially toward the coast and further
north. Western washington will still be in the warm sector so high
temperatures should again be mild, possibly close to 60. If less
clouds prevail, some areas like the southwest interior could reach
the low 60s. But any stronger onshore flow would certainly keep
the area stuck in the 50s but still nice compared to recent
temperatures.

Models show mainly weak systems to affect the region early next
week. Some solutions keep cut off lows more offshore with less
threat of precipitation while other models are a bit wetter. Neither
the GFS or ECMWF show any significant rainfall so a lull in the
active weather is expected. All signs point toward more typical
spring like weather with some clouds, some sun, and a chance of some
showers with near average temperatures. Mercer

Aviation Strong wly flow aloft will continue over the region
overnight. The low level flow will remain sly. A weak wmfnt will
move across the area late tonight or early Wed morning. Areas of
MVFR cigs/vsbys will become more wdsprd overnight.

Ksea... CIGS will bounce betweenVFR and MVFR categories overnight.

Expect CIGS (and occasionally vsbys0 to be in the MVFR category
during the day wed. Winds will remain sly 10-15 kt.

Marine
A warm front will move across the area overnight, followed by a cold
front on Wednesday. High pressure offshore with lower pressure
inland will result in onshore or westerly flow on Thursday.

Hydrology The heavy rain that fell on the olympic peninsula has
pushed the skokomish river over flood stage a few hours earlier
than previously expected. The flood warning for the skokomish was
updated to account for the slightly higher rises and the earlier
flood timing. Other rivers will see rises, but are not expected to
flood.

Otherwise, rainfall is not expected to be sufficient to cause
flooding on area rivers for the next several days.

The threat of landslides has increased somewhat due to rainfall
over the past 24 hours and expected through Wednesday. A special
weather statement is out to cover this elevated risk. Albrecht

Sew watches/warnings/advisories
Wa... Flood warning in effect for the skokomish river in mason
county.

Winter weather advisory in effect until 10 am Wednesday for the
cascades of whatcom and skagit counties.

Pz... Small craft advisories are in effect for all waters except the
central strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory for rough bar in effect until 6 am Wednesday
for the grays harbor bar.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 11 mi40 min SE 15 G 24 1017.2 hPa
CPMW1 11 mi40 min SE 23 G 29 47°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 15 mi40 min ESE 12 G 15 47°F 47°F1016.9 hPa
46118 17 mi85 min SW 25 49°F 1017.3 hPa44°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 30 mi70 min ENE 31 G 35 47°F 1016.2 hPa (-2.7)
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 30 mi40 min SSE 11 47°F 1018 hPa44°F
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 32 mi50 min SE 5.8 G 5.8 48°F 47°F2 ft1014.9 hPa46°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 45 mi40 min ESE 27 G 32 47°F 47°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Cherry Point, WA
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SE20
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G29
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SE9
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G26
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E12
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G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA3 mi15 minS 10 G 184.00 miLight Rain46°F42°F87%1015.9 hPa
Friday Harbor, Friday Harbor Airport, WA17 mi17 minESE 17 G 2710.00 miLight Rain47°F43°F86%1016.2 hPa
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA19 mi17 minSE 157.00 miLight Rain47°F43°F86%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from ORS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S8S10
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1 day agoS6S8S9S5S4SW7S6S7S7S9
G14
S7S9S5S4S5S6CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4
2 days agoCalmCalmE7NW3CalmE4SE4SE5
G15
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G22
SE5S3E6CalmS6S6S6
G14
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G16
S10S6S10S5S4S4

Tide / Current Tables for Echo Bay, Sucia Islands, Strait of Georgia, Washington
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Echo Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:48 AM PDT     2.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM PDT     8.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:06 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:18 PM PDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:39 PM PDT     8.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:53 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.322.745.57.18.38.78.26.95.13.21.60.91.12.23.75.46.988.17.56.45

Tide / Current Tables for Parker Reef Light, 1 mile North of, Washington Current
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Parker Reef Light
Click for MapFlood direction 65 true
Ebb direction 265 true

Wed -- 01:47 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:46 AM PDT     1.49 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:54 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:06 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:59 AM PDT     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:21 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:23 PM PDT     1.66 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:38 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:57 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:53 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:25 PM PDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.20.10.61.11.41.4-0-0.5-0.9-1.1-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.411.41.61.3-0-0.5-0.8-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.