Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Birch Bay, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:05AMSunset 9:21PM Thursday June 22, 2017 11:27 AM PDT (18:27 UTC) Moonrise 3:17AMMoonset 6:41PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 858 Am Pdt Thu Jun 22 2017
Today..NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..NW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft.
Mon..W wind 15 to 25 kt becoming sw 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
PZZ100 858 Am Pdt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A surface ridge over the pacific along with a strong heat low over california and southern oregon will set up northerly gradients over the waters through Sat night. Weak gradients are expected Sunday, then onshore flow will quickly increase on Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Birch Bay, WA
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location: 48.75, -122.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 221559
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
859 am pdt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis A building upper ridge will provide dry weather and a
warming trend through the weekend. The ridge will shift inland early
next week with onshore flow developing. Temperatures will start to
moderate Monday with a return to more seasonable temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather will persist but night and
morning clouds will return next week.

Short term Other than a thin ribbon of low stratus along just
off the north coast of western washington, skies are severe clear
across the region. Low level flow is becoming more northerly as a
ridge of high pressure extending from haida gwaii southward along
about 135w noses into south-central british columbia. The high
building to the north will give northeasterly flow aloft and
northerly flow at the surface, the start of a good warming trend.

After a cool start this morning with temperatures in the 40s to
lower 50s, expect strong june sunshine to pop highs well into the
70s. The dry air mass in place and clear skies will allow
temperatures to fall back to 45 to 55 tonight. High temperatures
on Friday will be in the 70s, except lower to mid 80s several
miles east of puget sound and in the interior south of seattle.

Warming really ramps up on Saturday as adiabatic compression does
its job at lower levels and temperatures aloft warm with the
incoming upper ridge. Offshore flow will be aided by the
development of a thermally induced trough now over northern
california into western oregon and the southern portions of
western washington. Temperatures will rise well into the 80s most
areas with some lower 90s seen inland from the beaches on the
north coast and a few miles east of puget sound, and in the
interior south of seattle.

Current forecasts are in good shape this morning. No updates are
required. Albrecht

Long term From the previous long term discussion: models agree
that the upper ridge axis will remain over western washington
through Sunday, then begin to flatten and shift slowly inland on
Monday. Thermally induced surface low pressure along the coast
will shift inland over the interior lowlands Sunday afternoon.

Offshore flow will become light in the afternoon with a lack of
sea-breeze effects producing the hottest day of the year around
greater puget sound. Gfs ECMWF mos give 95 92 for sea-tac, either
of which would break the record of 88 set in 2006. Given this is
day 4, decided to keep temperatures little changed which mirror
the more conservative ECMWF guidance.

A transition to onshore flow begins Sunday evening into Monday. The
switch looks to occur at the coast first Sunday night, then
gradually develop inland sometime on Monday. Both the GFS ecmwf
appear to show onshore winds reaching puget sound in the afternoon
which would halt afternoon warming from reaching much above 80.

Stayed close to MOS which gives low 80s but did indicate some upper
80s east of puget sound near the foothills where onshore flow may
arrive a bit later.

Stronger onshore flow should flood marine air and stratus into
western washington Monday night and Tuesday morning, repeating again
on Wednesday. There should be partial afternoon sunshine each day
but highs will fall back closer to average. The dry pattern appears
likely to continue but will need to watch a trough that will brush
the north part of the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Mercer

Aviation An upper level ridge will continue to slowly intensify
today and into tomorrow with moderate northwest flow aloft today,
becoming lighter tonight and Friday. The air mass will be stable,
with dry conditions persisting. Clear skies are expected area-wide.

Ksea... Clear skies for the next 30 hours with prevailing north
wind around 5-10 kts. Haner smr

Marine A northeast-southwest oriented surface ridge will remain
about 400 nautical miles northwest of CAPE flattery through
Saturday. Meanwhile, a strong heat low over california and
southern oregon will set up northerly gradients over the waters.

Inherited headlines have been allowed to expire... But models
continue to suggest that winds over the coastal waters may creep
back into SCA criteria by this evening. Will evaluate with incoming
12z data before making decision for afternoon forecast package. On
Sunday gradients will weaken, then onshore flow will quickly
increase on Sunday night. Haner smr

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 9 am pdt this morning for coastal
waters from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from james island to point grenville 10 to
60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape
shoalwater 10 to 60 nm.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 11 mi39 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 1026.9 hPa
CPMW1 11 mi39 min NW 7 G 8.9 57°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 15 mi51 min NNE 7 G 9.9 57°F 52°F1027.3 hPa
46118 17 mi102 min S 7.8 58°F 1026.8 hPa52°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 30 mi27 min S 4.1 G 7 56°F 1027.1 hPa (+0.0)
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 30 mi57 min N 6 61°F 1027 hPa52°F
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 32 mi37 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 55°F 52°F2 ft1026.5 hPa (+0.0)50°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 45 mi39 min W 5.1 G 8.9

Wind History for Cherry Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA3 mi32 minN 610.00 miFair59°F51°F77%1027.1 hPa
Friday Harbor Airport, WA17 mi34 minN 1010.00 miFair63°F51°F65%1027.2 hPa
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA19 mi34 minW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F50°F59%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from ORS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr455N5N4CalmN3CalmS6S5S5S6CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW7NW8W6NW5
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1 day agoS10
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NW5N53CalmCalmS6S8S6S6S6S8S7S8S7S6S7S5S8S4CalmN3Calm
2 days agoN5CalmNW66N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S5S7SE4CalmS4S4S3S8S9S7S11S11

Tide / Current Tables for Echo Bay, Sucia Islands, Strait of Georgia, Washington
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Echo Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:08 AM PDT     8.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:17 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:43 AM PDT     -2.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:13 PM PDT     8.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:40 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:47 PM PDT     5.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.77.68.58.98.77.763.81.4-0.6-1.9-2.1-1.30.22.14.16.17.58.187.36.55.95.7

Tide / Current Tables for Parker Reef Light, 1 mile North of, Washington Current
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Parker Reef Light
Click for MapFlood direction 65 true
Ebb direction 265 true

Thu -- 02:37 AM PDT     0.83 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:54 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:17 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM PDT     -1.28 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:50 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:04 PM PDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:39 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:40 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:15 PM PDT     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.60.8-0-0.4-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.2-1-0.7-0.40.10.91.41.81.91.60.7-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.