Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Birch Bay, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:26PM Monday November 19, 2018 12:33 PM PST (20:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:17PMMoonset 2:59AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 843 Am Pst Mon Nov 19 2018
Today..Light wind becoming ne to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N wind to 10 kt becoming E 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..E wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night..SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wed night..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..SE wind 5 to 15 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less.
PZZ100 843 Am Pst Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Easterly flow through Tuesday as high pressure remains in control. A series of weather systems will move across the area late Tuesday through the end of the week with stronger onshroe flow. Small craft advisory conditions are likely from time to time during this period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Birch Bay, WA
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location: 48.75, -122.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 191714
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
930 am pst Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis High pressure aloft will maintain cool dry weather
through Tuesday. Patchy night and morning fog or freezing fog will
give way to afternoon sunshine with highs reaching into the low to
mid 50s. A series of low pressure systems will bring wet weather
beginning Wednesday and continuing through the weekend.

Short term A ridge of high pressure will maintain dry conditions
through Tuesday. Areas of fog or freezing fog is likely again later
tonight and Tuesday morning. Highs will reach the low to mid 50s
today and Tuesday, with lows Tuesday again dipping into the 30s with
sub-freezing temperatures in colder valleys.

High clouds will start to increase Tuesday as high pressure shifts
inland ahead of a split trough approaching the region. Models will
no doubt have difficulty handling this split flow pattern as the two
streams battle for dominance. Most the energy typically splits off
with the southern portion, which models show tracking into oregon
and ca. The northern stream will be still be active, but the
potential for heavy precipitation will be less in this pattern.

Rain with the first split front will reach the coast early Wednesday
morning and quickly spread inland. QPF in the mountains looks to
around a few tenths with less much less in the lowlands. Cooler air
arrives with the front and snow levels should steadily drop to
around 3500 to 4000 feet Wednesday night into thanksgiving. A few
inches of snow could fall at higher passes Wednesday night and
Thursday. Higher passes like stevens and while pass are most likely
to see these amounts, while snoqualmie pass may only see a couple
inches. Motorists planning travel through cascade passes should pay
close attention to the forecast through the holiday weekend as the
an active weather pattern is anticipated. Mercer

Long term Previous discussion... Models have been consistent
in showing another, wetter system arriving Thursday, followed by an
upper trough for showers Friday. High temperatures will fall to
around 50 on Thursday and into the upper 40s on Friday. The snow
level will fall to around 3000 feet on Friday. During the wettest
period, about 18z Thursday to 18z Friday, several inches of snow are
likely in the passes--possibly even advisory amounts.

Models diverge somewhat after Friday. The GFS brings another system
into the region Saturday, while the latest euro run builds a ridge
and is pretty dry both Saturday and Sunday. For now have disregarded
that solution and kept likely pops Saturday with chance pops Sunday.

Highs both days will be 45-50, with lows around 40--pretty close to
average for this time of year. Burke

Aviation A strong upper ridge over the region will continue
through Tuesday, then shift east. Light southerly flow will become
moderate Tuesday. The air mass remains dry and stable except for near
surface moisture, trapped by the subsidence inversion. Areas of fog
or freezing fog this morning will develop again later tonight and
Tuesday morning. Fog should dissipate by midday today and again
Tuesday. Local ifr fog is likely again tonight Tuesday morning.

Ksea... Patchy ifr fog in the vicinity of ksea should dissipate by
midday, withVFR prevailing this afternoon and evening. Surface
winds light and variable becoming northerly 5 to 10 knots in the
afternoon. Dtm

Marine high pressure will remain in control with mainly easterly
flow through Tuesday. A series of low pressure systems will move
across the area from late Tuesday night through the end of the week.

Stronger onshore flow is likely with periods of small craft advisory
conditions from time to time. It's possible there could be a period
of gales over the coastal waters Thursday into Friday with second
stronger system but will have to monitor the forecast going forward.

Ceo

Hydrology A pattern change will get underway late Tuesday with a
series of low pressure systems moving across the area Wednesday into
the end of the week. Snow levels will be lowering with these
systems, down to around 3000 feet by Friday. At this time, rainfall
amounts do not look high enough to cause any river flooding but
river levels will be on the rise. Still some uncertainty with the
model precipitation forecasts so will continue to monitor. Ceo

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHYW1 - 9449424 - Cherry Point, WA 11 mi34 min 1020.9 hPa (-0.9)
CPMW1 11 mi40 min NNE 5.1 G 6 47°F 49°F
FRDW1 - 9449880 - Friday Harbor, WA 15 mi58 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 48°F 49°F1020.7 hPa
46118 17 mi39 min 44°F 1020.1 hPa36°F
SISW1 - Smith Island, WA 30 mi44 min NE 7 G 8.9 45°F 1020.5 hPa (-1.1)38°F
PBFW1 - Padilla Bay Reserve, WA 30 mi64 min NNW 4.1 44°F 1021 hPa38°F
46088 - New Dungeness, WA (Hein Bank) 32 mi44 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 46°F 49°F1020.4 hPa (-0.8)39°F
PTWW1 - 9444900 - Port Townsend, WA 45 mi34 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9

Wind History for Cherry Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eastsound, Orcas Island Airport, WA3 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair46°F37°F71%1020.7 hPa
Friday Harbor Airport, WA17 mi41 minN 410.00 miFair50°F37°F61%1020.9 hPa
Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, WA19 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair50°F35°F57%1021.6 hPa

Wind History from ORS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmN3N43CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3Calm
1 day agoN8N6N8N10NW75N654N64
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2 days agoN9NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Echo Bay, Sucia Islands, Strait of Georgia, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Parker Reef Light, 1 mile North of, Washington Current
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Parker Reef Light
Click for MapFlood direction 65 true
Ebb direction 265 true

Mon -- 02:09 AM PST     0.45 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:42 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:59 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:04 AM PST     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:26 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:11 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:00 PM PST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:15 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:16 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:26 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:37 PM PST     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:33 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.4-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.30.60.80.90.3-0.3-0.6-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.