Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 9:36 PM Moonrise 3:03 PM   Moonset 4:14 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

PKZ777 Nikolski To Seguam Pacfic Side Out To 15 Nm- 344 Pm Akdt Thu Apr 18 2024
.small craft advisory through Friday night - .
Tonight - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.Fri - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.Fri night - NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.Sat - NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.Sat night - W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.Sun - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.Mon - SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.Tue - S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 190034 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 434 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/This afternoon through Sunday afternoon)...

Wet and windy weather persists into the weekend as an atmospheric river lingers near southern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island. A Flood Watch is in effect for Kodiak Island, while a Flood Advisory is in effect for the Kodiak City area. We continue to monitor rain amounts and intensity associated with the atmospheric river. Aside from an increase in precipitation amounts for Kodiak Island, few major changes were made with this most recent forecast package.

Diving into the details... an Omega block is in place over Alaska and Canada, with a high amplitude ridge centered over NW Canada, a deep trough and closed low nearly stationary to the south of the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island, and a deep trough and low east of the ridge over the heart of Canada. An atmospheric river extends from the East Tropical Pacific north and west to Kodiak Island and the western Gulf of Alaska. A series of upper level waves rounding the upper low are tracking westward across the Gulf to Kodiak Island, bringing a resurgence of stronger winds and precipitation from this afternoon through late tonight.

The upper level ridge strengthens over Southcentral through tomorrow, keeping rain limited to areas south of Seward.
Meanwhile, steady rain will continue for Kodiak Island, with periods of moderate to heavy rain as upper level short-waves continue to pass overhead. There has been some uncertainty with rain amounts as the atmospheric river oscillates north and south under the influence of these shortwaves. With models keeping the front more consistently over Kodiak Island, have increased rain amounts and durations. The heaviest periods of rainfall will likely occur this afternoon/evening, and from early Friday morning through the afternoon. Expect lighter but steady rainfall throughout for Kodiak Island, bringing an additional 2-3 inches of rain from what has already been observed yesterday and today.
Rain lingers for Kodiak Island through Saturday, though precipitation should be much lighter as the surface low occludes and the tropical moisture tap is lost.

-SEB/KC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A vertically stacked low remains roughly 300 miles to the south of Sand Point and the Alaska Peninsula this evening. An axis of cooler temperatures aloft (-10 degrees Celsius at 850 mb)
stretches from the north central Bering down through the Eastern Aleutians as flow wraps cyclonically into the southern side of the low. Wind remains elevated within this thermal gradient with a swath of northerly gales extending from east of the Pribilof Islands down into the Dutch Harbor and Akutan. Ongoing snow showers across Unalaska have kept visibility between one half mile and one mile, as winds gusting over 30 knots are resulting in poor visibility within the falling snow. Temperatures are likely too warm at the surface for snow on the ground to blow around, but reduced visibility and deteriorated conditions are forecast to persist through Friday morning. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for the Eastern Aleutians through 8am AKDT Friday.
Likewise, a blizzard warning for Toksook Bay has been extended through 6am AKDT Friday morning as snow and blowing snow with visibility down to one quarter mile are expected to linger through tonight. Of note, rain has been observed in Bethel with surface temperatures below freezing. Thus, a mix of freezing rain and snow is possible into tonight with light icing on surfaces.

East of the stacked low, strong southeasterly flow is spilling into the Kamishak Gap. Easterly winds have gusted to around 35 mph through much of the day for Iliamna, Koliganek, and New Stuyahok.
Winds across all of Southwest Alaska look to remain elevated through late Saturday. Above normal temperatures are forecast for the region with mostly dry conditions forecast for Friday and Saturday. The pattern finally begins to change over the weekend as the vertically stacked low south of the AKPEN falls apart and a new developing low moves into the western Bering by Sunday.

-BL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Changes are expected as the weather pattern is becoming more stable conditions through the forecast period. An upper level ridge is slowly losing its hold across Mainland Alaska. A Western Gulf of Alaska low weakens and slips across the Gulf to Haida Gwaii by Wednesday before dissipating. A well developed Aleutian low maintains some additional upper level support from both Siberia and and the Northern Pacific through midweek. A number of moderate shortwaves rotate through the pattern across the Aleutians and along the Western Coasts.

Periods of rain spread across Southcentral Alaska through Wednesday from the Kenai Peninsula to the Canadian Border. The most active weather will be associated with the Aleutian/Bering low and its front on Monday. Heavy rains spread across the Central and Eastern Aleutians, with mixed rain and snow over the Bering with the low center. Gusty Southerly winds move with the front from the North Pacific, across the Pribilofs and St Matthew Island. Rain continues to spread into the Alaska Peninsula with the front through Tuesday, and into Southwest Alaska late Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of locally heavy rains moves into Kodiak Island late Tuesday through Thursday. Gusty Southeasterly winds moves through the Barren Island into Kamishak Bay Wednesday and Thursday.

Kutz

toggle option: (graph/table)

Adugak Islands
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:05 AM AKDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:07 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:49 AM AKDT     1.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:25 PM AKDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:02 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:12 PM AKDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Adugak Islands, Umnak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Cape Sagak
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:35 AM AKDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:29 AM AKDT     1.63 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:07 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:55 PM AKDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:02 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:52 PM AKDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Sagak, Umnak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Bethel/Anchorage,AK