Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nikolski, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 4:46AMSunset 11:06PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 12:50 AM AKDT (08:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:34AMMoonset 5:40PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nikolski, AK
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location: 52.92, -169.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 222358
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
358 pm akdt Mon may 22 2017

Analysis and upper levels
An upper wave and associated surface front and low are quickly
lifting north across southcentral alaska. Satellite and radar data
shows cloud breaks developing across many areas over southcentral
with a few showers moving north across the mat-su valleys. Gusty
winds on the back side of system are producing gusty south winds
along the copper river and gusty southeast winds across turnagain
arm and knik river valley. A weakening front extending across
southwest alaska to kodiak island is producing areas of light
rain/showers, especially over bristol bay.

Further west, a 140kt+ upper level jet continues to drive a
trough and surface cold front eastward across the bering sea and
toward the southwest alaska coast. Fairly cool air behind the cold
front is leading to instability off the surface. Thus, winds
across the region are quite gusty in nature. It's a fairly cold
rain along the front with temperatures in the 40s.

Model discussion
Numerical forecast guidance is in very good agreement with the
significant features over the next few days and forecast
confidence is generally high. The primary forecast challenge
is capturing all of the local detail in a progressive pattern.

Specifically, there will be a lot of fairly strong and gusty
winds and areas of moderate rain potential over southcentral
Wednesday. Will generally make adjustments out west using the gfs
and the nam/namnest across southcentral.

Aviation
Panc... Gusty southeast winds are expected across the airport
complex through late this evening.VFR conditions will persist
into Tuesday.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The active weather pattern will continue over southcentral alaska
through Wednesday. Some breaks in the clouds have allowed some
instability to build over the cook inlet region this
afternoon... And weak convergence along the kenai peninsula was
enough to tap into the instability and spark some convective
showers. Widespread gusty winds are being observed due to a well
mixed boundary layer and a strengthening pressure gradient as a
ridge of high pressure builds along the northern gulf coast. This
brief ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the gulf
tonight through Tuesday, allowing for a slightly drier day
tomorrow.

Attention then turns to what is setting up to be a wet
and windy Tuesday night through Wednesday. The ridge will quickly
exit to the east Tuesday night and be replaced by deep, moist
southwesterly flow moving up the cook inlet Tuesday night. A
potent upper-level southwesterly jet coupled with strong
southwesterly flow in the lower levels will setup a deep fetch of
subtropical moisture moving into our area. This will fuel periods
of moderate to heavy rainfall starting Tuesday night and lasting
through Wednesday evening. The heaviest rainfall will be in areas
where orographic ascent will enhance lift, including the northern
and eastern susitna and matanuska valleys and east anchorage. In
addition to the rain, expect gusty winds Wednesday through
channeled terrain in the kenai and chugach mountains and the
alaska range. These winds will be in response to a deepening
pressure gradient between low pressure over southwest ak and a
ridge of high pressure building along the northeastern gulf
coast.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
An unseasonably cool, cloudy, and wet next few days are in store
for much of southwest alaska. Weak ridging (high pressure) moving
into the area today is keeping conditions fairly dry, except for
showers along the alaska and aleutian ranges this evening, but
this will give way to stronger onshore flow and more significant
rainfall by Tuesday morning around the bristol bay zone. This
widespread rain will continue in the bristol bay area and spread
across the rest of southwest alaska Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning as a low pressure system tracks through the bering sea and
toward the bering strait by midweek. Onshore winds will get
gusty, especially along the coast, Tuesday night and Wednesday but
will not be strong enough or long-lived enough to cause any
coastal issues despite the unseasonably active weather.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The 990 mb low in the northwest bering sea will slowly track
eastward through midweek. Conditions will remain gusty and showery
with west winds continuing through midweek, but the bigger deal
will be the continuation and even exaggeration of the relatively
cold air mass already present in the western bering. By midweek,
this cold air will have spread eastward and temperatures will be
cold enough to see snow mixing in with the rain for much of the
bering sea and aleutian island locations.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The mid to long term forecast starting Wednesday evening seems to
be that of a tale of non summer like weather. The current model
depiction is that alaska will be stuck in troughing pattern where
the weather will be active through the weekend. Unfortunately,
this is a dramatic flip from guidance just a few days ago. The
first system will be exiting south central as we move into
Wednesday night. Weak low pressure will hang around the gulf
through the end of the week, leaving coastal and upslope regions
moist. By Saturday afternoon the next front moves past kodiak and
brings another round of unsettled weather through Monday.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 150 155 172 174.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Rc
southcentral alaska... Rd
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Ad
long term... Ss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLSA2 - 9462450 - Nokolski, AK 16 mi51 min SSW 15 G 25 42°F 1016.7 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Nikolski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Unalaska, Unalaska Airport, AK155 mi55 minSW 610.00 miLight Rain43°F39°F86%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from ADU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW14SW10
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1 day agoW3CalmCalmE3Calm5SW9S8SW14
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2 days agoE6N5CalmE7NE5NE4NE4CalmW3N3NE6NE6N954--5N7Calm3E4CalmE43

Tide / Current Tables for Adugak Islands, Umnak Island, Alaska
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Adugak Islands
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:42 AM AKDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:37 AM AKDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM AKDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:39 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:42 PM AKDT     1.95 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:21 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.83.23.43.53.22.61.810.3-0.1-0.200.51.11.72.12.42.42.32.1222.12.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Sagak, Umnak Island, Alaska
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Cape Sagak
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:12 AM AKDT     4.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM AKDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM AKDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:22 PM AKDT     1.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:38 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:20 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.143.52.71.80.80.1-0.2-0.10.30.91.62.22.72.92.82.52.11.81.92.12.63.23.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.