Wednesday, April23, 2014 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lubec, ME

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Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 8:27PM Wednesday April 23, 2014 4:55 PM AZOST (16:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:00AMMoonset 12:14PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lubec CDP, ME
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location: 53.55, -0.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 231330
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
930 am edt Wed apr 23 2014

Synopsis
Low pressure will slowly cross the region today but continue to
circulate very moist air back across the area through Thursday. High
pressure will build east later Thursday night into Friday night.

Near term /through tonight/
Update...

the first round of precipitation has mostly exited the northeast
corner of the state while part two of this system is generating in
southern new england at this time. The second round will feature
cyclogenesis in the gulf of maine this afternoon with a powerful
upper low moving from its current position in eastern
massachusetts to the gulf of maine. Cold air aloft and elevated
instability provide a risk of embedded thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening over the coastal waters and into hancock and
washington counties. Have added isolated thunderstorms to the
grids for these areas late this afternoon and evening. Have
adjusted the QPF forecast to show more precip for these areas late
this afternoon and evening.

Otherwise... Moist and relatively mild air will produce highs in
the mid to upper 50s for bangor and down east after the fog/low
clouds lift. On the other hand... The crown of maine will remain
much cooler with highs in the low to mid 40s as low clouds hang on.

Took another look at the snow situation for tonight. It appears
the best chance for snow will be west of a line from caribou
towards greenville in higher terrain. Areas above 1000 ft
elevation could see one to three inches while lower terrain west
of that line may just see some mixed precip with no accumulation.

There is not enough QPF tonight in this colder NW part of the
state to justify higher accumulation forecasts.

Previous discussion an area of low pressure will slowly track
east across the region today. The steadier rain early this morning
will tend to diminish as we go into late this morning and into
this afternoon as somewhat drier air gets entrained into the
system. Will indicate the highest pops early this morning with
only chance pops by early afternoon. North winds will keep
temperatures near or slightly below seasonal for this time of
year. Highs will range from the upper 40s north and low to mid 50s
central and downeast.

Rain chances will once again begin to increase by late this afternoon
and this evening as a trof extends westward across the region from
low pressure slowly moving east of the gulf of maine. The best
chances of rain tonight will be across eastern portions of the area.

Colder air moving in behind the exiting low will allow the rain to
mix with or change to snow across northern areas after midnight.

There could even be an inch or two of snow accumulation to the north
and west of caribou by early Thursday morning especially across the
higher terrain. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 30s
across northern areas and the upper 30s to around 40 degrees central
and downeast.

Short term /Thursday through Friday/
A strongly neg-tilted upper trof xtndg from hudson bay sewrd to
closed upper low pres S of ns will support a deep sfc low S of ns
at the start of the short term pd Thu am... This sfc
low... Captured by the closed upper low... Will be slow to move ewrd
on Thu and will cont to transport very moist air nwwrd back across
our area thru the day Thu w/ highest pops and QPF still expected
across the ERN and nern areas. Have only made some minor tweaks to
pops and QPF amounts based on the latest model guidance. Chilly
temps will persist w/ highs struggling to reach the lower 40s n
and NW and the upper 40s s. May even be a little wet snow across
the hyr elevs of the N and NW Thu am...

otherwise... Appears this low finally begins to move out of the
picture Thu ngt as a strong ridge of high pres w/ drier air begins
to build ewrd into the area. W/ all the rain and snow melt from the
preceding days... Lower-levels will likely to be slow to dry out so
expect some sc CIGS to linger across the NRN half of the fa thru
thu ngt and psbly even into fri. Temps will remain a bit blo
seasonal norms Thu ngt and depending on how much sunshine can be
realized on fri... May just reach close to seasonal norms...

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/
Ridge of high pres shifts E of the area Fri ngt w/ the usual model
diffs prevalent in the long term... Nxt system in this cool and
unsettled progressive ptrn arrives on Sat w/ the GFS much faster
and deeper than the latest ECMWF & can gem which has been the
trend last several runs. Similar to the current system affecting
the region... Appears this system will also cutoff in the upper
levels making it slow to move out of the picture late in the
weekend thru erly nxt week. Used the superblend consensus which
yields chc pops Sat aftn thru Mon w/ contd slgt chc pops tue. A
broad nrly circ behind this system Sun thru Tue suggests temps
remaining blo seasonal norms...

Aviation /13z Wednesday through Sunday/
Near term: widespread ifr conditions in rain through about 12z then
conditions should improve to MVFR thereafter as the rain
diminishes. A period ofVFR is possible by early afternoon as some
what drier air allows the lower ceilings to lift a bit. Ceilings
will once again lower to MVFR/ifr by tonight as steadier
precipitation moves back into the region.

Short term: contd MVFR/ifr conds Thu as moist air associated w/
deep slow-movg low pres SE of the area is pulled up across the
area... High pres will finally begin building into the region thu
ngt into Fri and remain thru Fri ngt. Lower-levels may be slow to
drive however so whileVFR conds will likely return across the srn
taf sites... NRN taf sites may hold onto MVFR/lowVFR thru Thu ngt
w/VFR returning by Fri am.VFR conds should then persist at all
taf sites thru Fri ngt and into Sat when another low pres system
approaches from the W and brings another round of unsettled wx to
the area.

Marine
Near term: winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory conditions
today. Winds/seas will then begin to increase late tonight and a
small craft advisory has been issued starting late tonight.

Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 nm in rain through tonight.

Short term: a deep slow-movg low pres just ese of the waters will keep
strong SCA conds contg Thu into Thu ngt w/ a brief pd of low end
glw conds psbl late Thu am into Thu aftn...

Car watches/warnings/advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am Thursday to 9 am edt Friday for
anz050>052.

Near term... Duda/mcw
short term... Khw
long term... Khw
aviation... Duda/mcw/khw
marine... Duda/mcw/khw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
62150 41 mi55 min ESE 14 50°F 2 ft1019.3 hPa (-0.6)
62144 - North Sea 95 mi55 min SE 11 53°F 2 ft1019.5 hPa (-0.5)43°F

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.