Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:48AM||Sunset 5:26PM||Friday December 13, 2013 4:53 PM AZOT (17:53 UTC)||Moonrise 1:37PM||Moonset 3:50AM||Illumination 84%|
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lubec CDP, MEHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kcar 131710|
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1210 pm est Fri dec 13 2013
Weak low pressure will move east of the region this afternoon
allowing a reinforcing shot of very cold air to follow for tonight
through Saturday. Low pressure will approach from the south
Saturday night... And pass just southeast of the region
Sunday... Potentially bringing significant snowfall to much of the
Near term /through tonight/
Update 1200l: radar suggests some snow streamers beginning to dvlp
across NRN maine w/ these oriented wnw-ese as CAA begins behind
this morning/s weak clipper which is now well E of the area. Focus
for the remainder of this aftn will be on these w/ bitter wnd
chills then the issue for tngt as a bitter cold reinforcing shot
of arctic air overspreads the area. Made a minor adjustment to
pops to better fit current and expected conds. Otherwise... Current
fcst on track...
update 0905l: weak clipper now E of the area w/ area of vry lgt
snw E into nb as well... CAA commencing once again across the area
attm behind this system and this will reinforce the vry cold
airmass which has settled ovr the area last few dys. Brisk NW flow
will also likely touch off a few streamers off of the st lawrence
this aftn w/ the hrrr nicely depicting this activity across n
central into E central areas from erly thru late aftn. Have tried
to represent this expected scenario in our pop and wx grids but
may need to adjust as this activity dvlps since these streamers
can be quite localized and difficult to pinpoint in advance...
remainder of the fcst on track attm...
the weak clipper low will cross northern maine this morning and
redevelop in the canadian maritimes this afternoon. The clipper
will bring light snow to northern zones this morning... Mostly
north of houlton. Accumulations could reach an inch and possibly
up to 2 inches in higher terrain within northern aroostook county. As
the low moves east of the forecast area... It will drag an arctic
front through the area. Some snow squalls are possible. It appears
the squall will organize from houlton west to the katahdin region
towards midday and then sweep south towards washington county this
afternoon as it dissipates. Southern portions of the forecast area
such as bangor should escape the snow outside of a brief snow
shower as the arctic front crosses. With some sun... The
bangor/brewer area should reach near 20f today. Further
north... Only single digits are forecast for caribou northward into
the saint john valley. The arctic front will bring another round
of bitter cold and winds for later this afternoon and tonight.
Wind chills may drop to less than minus 30 in northern aroostook
and have issued a wind chill advisory for aroostook... Northern
piscataquis and northern penobscot counties for tonight. Lows will
drop to minus 10 to minus 20 in these areas with winds gusting to
over 20 mph. The winds will decrease later in the night as high
pressure builds. Elsewhere... Lows of zero to ten below are
Short term /Saturday through Sunday/
*main issues will be low wind chills Sat morning and a potential
*winter storm watches have been issued for the southern half of the
cwa for late Sat night and Sunday.
A cold high centered just west of quebec city at 12z Sat will
gradually lift to the north of the area Sat night. As the center of
the high is west of the area first thing Sat morning there will be
some wind and the potential for low wind chills Sat morning. The
wind speed looks marginal (around 10 mph). Wind chill advisories
were issued for tonight and extended into Sat morning.
Low pressure across the gulf coast states Sat morning is expected to
lift up to near nantucket by 12z Sun and continue to deepen as
the low races NE and passes just east of nova scotia sun
afternoon and evening. Snow is expected to develop from the
southwest after midnight Sat night and snow should be falling
across most if not all of downeast maine by 12z sun. The snow|
will overspread the remainder of the CWA Sun morning. Given the
track of the low the heaviest snow will fall across downeast areas
with amounts dropping off to the north of the katahdin region. As
the models have now jogged back a bit to the west it now appears
that there is a good chance of 8-14 inches of snow across downeast
maine. The storm is progressive with an incoming upper trough from
the west it is unlikely that amounts will exceed much more than 14
inches. The latest 00z GFS is even further to the west taking the
low right over nova scotia and would bring warning criteria snow
all the way north and across the crown of maine and might even
introduce a bit of a mix along the immediate coast for a brief
time Sun afternoon. The 00z operational GFS is further west than
its ensemble mean and there are only a couple of ensemble members
that are as far west as the operational gfs. The latest 00z ecmwf
is very consistent with its previous run and is also very close to
the GFS ensemble mean and canadian gem. Forecaster confidence is
high enough to issue a winter storm watch for late Sat night into
Sunday for downeast areas into central maine with the idea that
later shifts can refine the area as needed. The forecast amounts
are based very closely on a blend of the GFS ensemble
mean/operational ecmwf/canadian. The headlines were well
collaborated with WFO gyx and discussed with the wpc.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/
The sfc low pulls away from the region Sun night and Mon with an
inverted trough extending back across the area. The mid/upper level
low follows Sun night into Mon morning. This will likely keep some
lighter snow falling across parts of northern and eastern maine
into Mon morning. High pressure then builds across the region mon
night. An interesting looking clipper moves across the area
tue with a good chance of snow. The models are hinting at a
secondary that may develop in the gulf of maine and produce more
significant snows across the area Tue night into wed. Thu looks
mainly dry and seasonably cold as the low moves out of the area
and is at least briefly replaced by a ridge of high pressure
building in from the west.
Aviation /17z Friday through Tuesday/
Near term: mostly ifr this morning north of hul in snow.VFR is
expected through the period for bgr and bhb. Snow squalls may set
up with an arctic cold front crossing the region later this
morning and early afternoon... Most likely affecting hul. Some MVFR
cigs are possible at times from pqi northward this afternoon and
Short term:VFR Sat into the first half of Sat night. Conditions
will deteriorate late Sat night with ifr and even some vlifr in snow
Sunday... Especially at the southern terminals. Mostly ifr/MVFR in
areas of light snow that will likely persist into Monday. Another
system may quickly follow with more ifr/MVFR in snow tue.
Near term: have upgraded the SCA to a gale warning for today with
the strong pressure gradient ahead of an arctic front and strong
nw winds behind the front bringing bitter cold air over the
relatively warm waters. Will go with a SCA for the intracoastal
through tonight. When the gale ends this evening... An SCA will be
needed to replace it.
Short term: a gale is possible for a time Sunday as low pressure
deepens as it passes east of the forecast waters. A gusty wind on
the backside of low will likely keep at least SCA conditions going
into Monday. The wind will diminish and the seas subside Mon night
below SCA levels as high pressure briefly builds over the waters.
Me... Wind chill advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
Saturday for mez001>006-010.
Winter storm watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
evening for mez011-015>017-029>032.
Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Saturday for anz052.
Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for anz050-051.
Near term... Khw/mcw
short term... Cb
long term... Cb
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|62150||41 mi||54 min||SSW 20||50°F||3 ft||1015.3 hPa (-0.3)||46°F|
|62144 - North Sea||95 mi||54 min||S 17||49°F||4 ft||1015.6 hPa (-0.8)||45°F|
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (12,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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