Sunday, December21, 2014 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lubec, ME

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6/10/2014 - Marine Zones updated. Some zones have changed. Edit your Marine Forecast section to check.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:29PM Sunday December 21, 2014 11:33 PM AZOT (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 7:04AMMoonset 3:46PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lubec CDP, ME
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location: 53.55, -0.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 212302
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
602 pm est Sun dec 21 2014

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will slowly move to the east Monday into
Tuesday. A strong low pressure system will approach Tuesday night
and is expected to track to our west Wednesday into Thursday.

Near term /through Monday/
602 pm update... Cloudy across the CWA early this evening with
nothing more than a few flurries or very spotty freezing drizzle
across northern maine. A few flurries or very light snow also
possible in parts of coastal hancock and washington counties as a
band with enhanced cloud tops moves across the area over the next
couple of hours. It still appears that the best chance of a
period of snow will come later tonight as an area of convergence
sets up along and near the down east coast in associated with a
weak inverted trough. Some minor adjustments were made to the pops
for this evening based on the latest radar and satellite trends.

Previous discussion...

a norlun type setup for the SW and downeast region w/some spotty
freezing drizzle possible as well.

18z surface analysis showed an inverted trof extending from the
gulf of maine back into western maine. An upper level disturbance
was moving across southern maine which will help support some
light precip through tonight into early Monday. The latest 12z
run of the NAM was handling this setup well showing some light
precip to break out across downeast and SW maine and then spread
nne overnight into early Monday. The precip will mainly be
concentrated from the coast nnw into the the mt. Katahdin and
millinocket region. Temperatures will be below freezing and
soundings support the potential for some light snow. The light
precip looks like it will spread into portions of nnw maine
overnight into Monday in the form of snow. Attm, confidence is low
on placement and precip chances. The 1830z satellite imagery showed
enhanced/cooling cloud tops over the gulf of maine gradually
expanding back to the W toward the coast in the vicinity of
inverted trof. Snow will align along this trof overnight into
Monday. Decided to increase the precip chances up to 40% across
the downeast coast and kept slight chance further north for now.

Best chances for any snowfall accumulation will be an inch at best
and mainly over the downeast coast. This will need to be
monitored by the later shifts to see if the precip shield expands
further north and intensifies.

Another concern overnight into early Monday will be the chance of
some spotty freezing drizzle once again later tonight into early
Monday. The model soundings indicate this to take place across the
northern 1/2 of the CWA w/llvl moisture trapped below 900mbs and
a light SE flow just above the surface. Any icing threat ATTM will
be minimal. Temperatures for Monday will be near or a few degrees
warmer than they were today.

Short term /Monday night through Wednesday/
Strong high pressure will move to the east of the state Monday
night as weak low pressure develops off the north carolina coast.

Some light snow and mixed precipitation is possible coastal area
Monday night as inverted trough weakens off-shore. Weak coastal
low pressure located off the mid atlantic states will weaken by
late in the day Tuesday due to the lack of upper level support.

Intense low pressure will move into the central great lakes
Wednesday generating a strong southerly flow across new england.

This will result in over running precipitation christmas eve into
christmas day as the intense low pressure system moves
northward... Passing to the east of james bay Thursday. Strong
gusty winds are possible Wednesday. Will use model consensus
approach and blend ECMWF and GFS through this period for pop and
qpf. Used burlington cloud tool for skies. The super blend was
used for temperature and dew point. For sustained winds used the
mosg25.

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/
Precipitation type will be in the form of rain across coastal and
central areas. Mixed precipitation is expected in the north as
pockets of cold air persist near the surface. All precipitation
will be liquid by late Wednesday and continue into Thursday. A
strong cold front will approach christmas eve and cross the area
late christmas day. Strong gusty winds are possible through
Thursday. A cold air mass will move into the state Friday. Another
cold front will approach from the west Saturday with reinforcing
cold air moving in Sunday. For this period have used the super
blend to populate grids.

Aviation /22z Sunday through Friday/
Near term: MVFR across the northern terminals this evening except
for kfve as this site is holding w/ifr.VFR for kbgr and kbhb
early and then conditions expected to drop to MVFR w/ifr later
tonight into Monday morning w/some light snow. For the northern
terminals, MVFR through Monday w/a period of ifr through early
Monday morning. Some spotty light freezing drizzle or light snow
is possible for the northern terminals.

Short term:VFR/MVFR conditions expected Tuesday. Ifr conditions
expected Wednesday and Thursday.VFR conditions expected Friday.

Marine
Near term: winds and seas will remain well below SCA limits into
Monday. Some light rain or snow tonight into early Monday
lowering vsbys at times to less than 3 nm.

Short term: will use the nam12 for sustained winds through
Wednesday then transition to the super blend winds. Have adjusted
the super blend winds higher Thursday. For waves: long fetch
develops in southerly flow Wednesday and extends from coast to
approximately 60 nm to the south. Expect waves to build to 15
feet/9-11 seconds by late Wednesday night and persist into
Thursday night as large long period waves arrive from the southern
portion of the fetch later Thursday. Have used the near shore wave
model run on forecaster winds and wave watch iii boundary
conditions through 25th/0600z then transition to the wna/4.

Hydrology
Warmer scenario expected christmas eve(Wednesday) into christmas
day w/the potential for some heavy rainfall w/low pres forecast to
pass by to our west. The heaviest rainfall looks to be across
eastern maine including the penobscot and st. Croix basins w/1-2
inches of rainfall. Across northern and western areas, rainfall of
1+ inches is possible. The combination of melting snow, heavy
rainfall and winds will lead to substantial runoff and rises on
the rivers. Any ice will likely melt/breakup and move. The ice jam
on the aroostook river is a concern as it could break up and move
w/the above scenario expected.

Tides/coastal flooding
Concern over relatively high astronomical tide (perigean spring
tide) high tide at bar harbor will occur approximately 25th/0530z
(11.76 ft mllw)... 25th/1800z (12.73 ft mllw) and 26/0624z (11.80
ft). Latest wave model continues to develop fetch... On 24th to
25... Extending from coast to 600 nm to south. Latest wave model
guidance continues to suggest wave heights around 15 feet and
periods ranging from 9 to 11 seconds during these high tides.

Wave heights and long periods still sufficient for minor
overtopping issues. Also will strong onshore winds expected and
elevated astronomical tide some flooding issues still possible.

Car watches/warnings/advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Cb/hewitt
short term... Mignone
long term... Mignone
aviation... Cb/hewitt/mignone
marine... Cb/hewitt/mignone
hydrology... Hewitt
tides/coastal flooding... Mignone


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
62150 41 mi93 min SW 25 51°F 1013.3 hPa (-1.0)47°F
62144 - North Sea 95 mi93 min SW 34 51°F 8 ft1014.3 hPa (-1.4)46°F

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.