Monday, January26, 2015 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lubec, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
1/11/2015 - Updated Marine Zones because NOAA split some zones on the East Coast. You may need to edit or your forecast section. 6/17/2014 - I reported slow load times to NOAA and they quickly resolved the problem. Sorry for any inconvience. NOAA had some stuck processes on two servers. This was a problem on 5 to 10% of the requests.
6/10/2014 - Marine Zones updated. Some zones have changed. Edit your Marine Forecast section to check.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 6:01PM Monday January 26, 2015 11:21 AM AZOT (12:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:30AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lubec CDP, ME
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location: 53.55, -0.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 261119
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
619 am est Mon jan 26 2015

Synopsis
Low pressure will rapidly intensify along the southern new
england coast tonight into Tuesday. The low will then lift across
the gulf of maine Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure
will build across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Low
pressure will cross the area Friday.

Near term /through tonight/
Update... Made some minor adjustments to hourly temps early this
morning. Also... Dropped the freezing spray advisory on the waters.

No other changes.

Canadian high pressure will build across the region today with
mainly sunny and dry weather expected. Highs today will range
from 5 to 10 above across northern areas and the mid to upper
teens across central and down east areas.

High pressure will drift to our northeast tonight as low pressure
begins to slowly approach from the mid atlantic region. Expect
increasing clouds this evening with snow developing across down
east areas after midnight. The snow will then continue to slowly
expand north across the remainder of northern maine toward
morning.

Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday/
Deep low pres off the southern new england coast at 12z Tue gets
captured by a mid/upper level low slowing the movement of the sfc
low as it slowly lifts to the northeast. The operational ecmwf
which continues with its 00z run to show cyclonic looping of the
low off the long island coast does not have support from the other
operational models or its many ensemble members. A strong
deformation zone is expected to develop across down east maine tue
and spread to the north during the day. The heaviest snowfall is
expected during the day Tuesday across the down east region
spreading north into northern maine Tue afternoon into Tue night.

Indications are that the deformation zone weakens some as it lifts
north. All of the models have the heaviest QPF and snowfall across
the down east region with amounts dropping off to the north. Have
some concern that it may be difficult to reach warning criteria
across northwest maine... And it is certainly possible that later
shifts may need to downgrade this area to an advisory. Strong wind
will also develop during the day Tuesday with wind gusts of up to
50 mph across the down east region and 35 mph across northern
maine by late in the day. Even stronger wind is expected along the
immediate coast. The strong wind will produce significant blowing
and drifting snow with blizzard conditions likely across the down
east region. The deformation band is expected to weaken Tue night
with periods of lighter snow persisting. There are indications
that a second deformation band sets up later Tue night into wed
morning across the down east region that could produce a few to
several inches of additional snowfall. When all is said and done
expected amounts to 8 to 14 inches across far northern maine and
from 15 to 20 inches down east with locally higher amounts near 2
feet in spots that are affected my locally intense meso scale
bands. Only minor changes on the order of a couple of inches made
to the storm totals. Did extend the blizzard warning for a few
more hours Wed morning in coordination with WFO gray.

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/
Low pres pulls way from the region Wed night and high pres briefly
builds across the region Thu with dry and seasonably cold weather.

The next low advances toward the region from the midwest Thu night
and fri. The ECMWF really deepens the low in the gulf of maine fri
night and would bring significant snowfall to much of the region fri
pm through sat. The GFS is much more progressive and weaker with
the low and would bring only a light snowfall to the region. Given
that the attention is now in the short term will use the model
consensus approach for now. Shots of cold arctic air likely in the
wake of this system with the coldest air mass of the winter season
possible by early february.

Aviation /11z Monday through Friday/
Near term: today:VFR all terminals.

Tonight: kfve/kcar/kpqi...VFR.

Khul...VFR. Snow will develop 10z to 12z with conditions
deteriorating to ifr.

Kbgr/kbhb...VFR early. Snow developing 06z-08z with conditions
deteriorating to ifr/lifr. R/wy snow accumulations of 2 to 4
inches can be expected by early Tuesday morning.

Short term: vlifr to develop from south to north Tue as a powerful
snow storm affects the terminals Tue into Wed along with strong
wind. Conditions will improve theVFR Wed night and thu. Ifr
possible again by later fri.

Marine
Near term: a storm warning remains in effect beginning late
tonight. Visibility will decrease to less than 1 nm in snow after
midnight.

Short term: a storm warning remains in effect from 1 am Tue until 1 am
wed. Will likely need a residual SCA for seas through wed. High
pres builds over the waters Wed night into Thu with both the wind
and seas below SCA levels.

Tides/coastal flooding
A storm surge of 1-2 feet is expected Tue into
tue night with the potential for some minor coastal flooding
around the times of high tide from early Tue morning through early
wed morning. A coastal flood warning has been issued.

Car watches/warnings/advisories
Me... Winter storm warning from 7 am Tuesday to 1 pm est Wednesday
for mez001>004.

Winter storm warning from 4 am Tuesday to 1 pm est Wednesday
for mez005-006-010-011-031-032.

Blizzard warning from 4 am Tuesday to 4 am est Wednesday for
mez015>017-029-030.

Coastal flood watch from late tonight through Wednesday
morning for mez029-030.

Marine... Storm warning from 1 am Tuesday to 1 am est Wednesday for
anz050>052.

Near term... Duda
short term... Cb
long term... Cb
aviation... Duda/cb
marine... Duda/cb
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
62150 41 mi81 min W 15 46°F 1020.5 hPa (+0.8)38°F
62144 - North Sea 95 mi81 min WNW 19 45°F 3 ft1019.1 hPa (+0.9)36°F

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.