Sunrise 6:51 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 9:45 PM   Moonset 4:47 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 250434 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1234 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight.
High pressure will build across the region Thursday into Saturday. A warm front will approach from the southwest Sunday and move to the Saint John Valley on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Update...
Surface/upper level low pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. Expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across northern areas overnight with lingering flurries also possible through early morning. Mostly clear skies are expected Downeast overnight. Gusty northwest winds will persist overnight, generally up to 30 to 35 mph. However, locally stronger gusts are possible across higher terrain areas. Low temperatures will range from the upper teens to around 20 north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast. With temperatures falling below freezing, icy roads are also possible overnight. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected overnight temperatures, clouds and winds.

Previous Discussion...
By Thursday, high pressure returns with sunny skies and warming temps. NW winds will keep decreasing throughout the day as the pressure gradients relax. The only concern for tomorrow will be the areas in the south that do not receive any precip today and tonight and have low dewpoints.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Any SC cld cvr even ovr NE ptns of the FA should dissipate and move E of the Rgn Thu Eve as thew upper trof moves E and winds become lgt with the apch of a sprawling large and strong Can high pres system. Ovrngt low temps will be chilly with decent radiational cooling spcly ovr NW vlys where some lctns will experience lows of mid to upper teens. After chilly start Fri Morn, temps will recover to Aftn high temps closer to climo values Fri Aftn under msly sunny skies.

After another clr cool, calm ngt Fri Ngt (but not quite as cold as Thu Ngt) as strong sfc high pres remains ovr the FA, the warming trend will cont Sat under sunny skies and lgt winds as an upper ridge amplify just W of the Rgn, with most low trrn inland lctns reaching abv normal Aftn high temps of arnd 60 deg F.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The long range will feature and open upper E-W blocking pattern between the the NW Atlc and the lower Great Lks. This will keep the Rgn msly dry thru Mon before the upper ridge gets flattened by a s/wv alf from S Cntrl Can Mon Ngt into Tue. A weak band of warm front shwrs may reach msly Wrn ptns of the FA Sun Aftn into Sun Ngt before dissipating, with little if any measurable rn.

More sig rnfl will reach spcly Nrn/Cntrl ptns of the FA later Mon Ngt into Tue where PoPs reach the likely range by blended long range guidance. In addition, some models, like the 12z dtmnstc ECMWF indicate a back door cold frontal passage late Mon Ngt, which could make high temps Tue much cooler than blended long range model guidance gives for this day, so low confidence on this parameter attm.

Models are very uncertain regarding what happens after Tue's s/wv moves E of the FA Tue Eve, with some models like the 12z dtmnstc GFS indicating a stronger s/wv alf arriving from S Cntrl Can by late Wed, while the corresponding ECMWF shows more zonal flow alf Wed and drier conditions. The 12z CanGem has a considerable phase difference of s/wvs from the other two major models, with Tue's s/wv arriving on Wed for our FA and Wed's s/wv on Thu. For now, we just trended PoPs downward to Chc shwrs for most of the FA by Wed. Given these model differences, low confidence must be given to both temps and PoPs on Wed attm.

AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: Local MVFR conditions possible across northern areas through early morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected across the region overnight through Thursday. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 to 35 knots overnight into Thursday morning, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots Thursday afternoon. Northwesterly low level wind shear possible through early morning.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Thu Ngt - Sun...All TAF sites Unlmtd VFR with lgt winds.

Sun Ngt - Mon...All TAF sites VFR clgs. Isold shwrs mainly Sun Ngt. Lgt winds.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect overnight into Thursday afternoon. However, a few wind gusts could approach gale levels into early morning. Winds/seas will fall below small craft advisory levels later Thursday afternoon.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns xpctd with msly lgt winds and low wv hts. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs composed of two wv groups; a short fetch 3-5sec group and a semi-swell 8-10 sec group.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050>052.

Immingham
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Wed -- 12:51 AM BST     Full Moon
Wed -- 01:12 AM BST     1.28 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 05:35 AM BST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:39 AM BST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:07 AM BST     6.75 meters High Tide
Wed -- 01:22 PM BST     1.46 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 PM BST     6.84 meters High Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM BST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:23 PM BST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Immingham, England, Tide feet

Whitby
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Wed -- 12:51 AM BST     Full Moon
Wed -- 05:06 AM BST     5.23 meters High Tide
Wed -- 05:34 AM BST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:38 AM BST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:14 AM BST     1.30 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 05:16 PM BST     5.29 meters High Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM BST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:29 PM BST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:34 PM BST     1.09 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Whitby, England, Tide feet

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