Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 9:28 PM Moonrise 11:48 AM   Moonset 4:28 AM

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PKZ758 NElson Lagoon To Cape Sarichef Out To 15 Nm- 411 Am Akdt Tue Apr 16 2024
.small craft advisory Wednesday - .
Today - SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.Tonight - NE wind 15 kt becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.Wed - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain.Wed night - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.Thu - NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.Fri - NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.Sat - NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

FXAK68 PAFC 161329 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 529 AM AKDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The upper level ridge that has brought sunny skies, warmer temperatures, and quiet weather to Southcentral over the past several days will continue to shift east today before becoming blocked over northwestern Canada by a broad low sweeping across the southern Provinces this week. While the warmer temperatures will stick around a bit longer, even seeing additional warming for much of Southcentral through the end of the week, a more active weather pattern will begin to set up today across the northern Pacific and western Gulf. This pattern will bring increasing rain chances for Kodiak Island and portions of the eastern Kenai Peninsula for much of the week. In addition, gale to storm-force winds winds will develop across the western Gulf and Barren Islands late tonight through Wednesday.

The system responsible is currently getting its act together this morning as pushes south across the Bering Sea. The trough will elongate, reaching into the north Pacific, as it sweep across the Central Aleutians...with a secondary upper low developing as it pushes south of the Aleutian Chain late tonight. Several shortwave troughs on the southern periphery of the longwave trough will lift north towards Kodiak Island and into Southcentral. The front will also lift north towards Kodiak Island with is looking to stall near the Barren Islands midweek before finally pushing north towards the Gulf coast by late this week. A modest surge of moisture ahead of this system will allow for efficient precipitation processes resulting in locally heavy rainfall spreading into Kodiak Island late this afternoon and evening, and then into the southeastern Kenai Peninsula by Wednesday. Temperatures may be initially cold enough at lower elevation on Kodiak to start out as a rain/snow mix but should quickly warm and change over to all rain. Moderate to heavy rainfall looks to persist into Thursday, but could see showery conditions linger into the weekend. Models remain pretty consistent with rainfall amounts of about 3 to 5 inches along the southeast side of Kodiak and up to several inches for lower elevations along for coastal areas for southeast Kenai Peninsula through Thursday.

- PP

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA ,THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Current observations throughout Southwest Alaska show wind gusts ranging from 35 to 45 mph and snow for a few areas in the Kuskokwim Delta including Bethel, Kongiganak and Cape Newenham.
These strong winds will diminish throughout the day as a low pressure system south of the Aleutians moves northeastward toward the Alaska Peninsula. Warm southerly air is expected with a sustained push of moisture resulting in a mostly rain event tomorrow afternoon into Thursday evening for Southwest Alaska.
Wind gusts during this time frame in Southwest Alaska ranging from 30 to 40 mph is expected.

As this low moves north and east, snow and northerly winds on its backside first in the Central Aleutians then eastward to the Alaska Peninsula will gust up to 55 mph. Northerly winds through the gaps west of Nikolski will experience these gusts early tomorrow morning with locations east of Nikolski to Cold Bay beginning tomorrow afternoon. These winds will remain strong for a 3 to 6 hour period from their onset before the gusts diminish to as high as 30 mph.

-DJ

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term forecast begins late Thursday with a strong ridge of high pressure situated over the Yukon and a negatively tilted longwave trough extending southeast from the central Bering. A vertically stacked low well south of the Alaska Peninsula Thursday slowly lifts to the AKPen and eastern Aleutians through Friday. A front attached to the low looks to remain nearly stationary near Kodiak Island, allowing moisture to continue to stream toward the island on southeasterly winds aloft from the eastern Pacific. This moisture stream will likely result in several additional inches of rain for parts of Kodiak Island through Saturday before the front finally weakens and shears apart.

To the north, an inverted trough is the boundary between warmer air over Southwest Alaska and a colder airmass over the western half of the Bering and Aleutians. Precipitation will focus along the trough axis, with rain for Southwest and a mix of rain/snow to the west of the trough.

By Saturday, the ridge looks to extend across interior Alaska, suppressing the trough to the south, along the Aleutians and southern Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will likely lead to generally quiet conditions for much of interior Alaska, including the Southern Mainland. The exception would be along the immediate coast, where a front lifting toward the northern Gulf may bring some precipitation from Prince William Sound to the AKPen by Sunday or Monday.

TM

Cape Mordvinof
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:23 AM AKDT     6.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:28 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:50 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:48 AM AKDT     2.98 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:24 PM AKDT     5.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:47 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:27 PM AKDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:05 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Mordvinof, Unimak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Cape Sarichef
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Tue -- 02:33 AM AKDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:28 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:33 AM AKDT     2.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:53 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:34 PM AKDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:51 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:12 PM AKDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:06 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Sarichef, Unimak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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