Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 9:57 PM Moonrise 12:42 AM   Moonset 6:21 AM

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PKZ754 Cape Tolstoi To Cape Sarichef Out To 15 Nm- 305 Am Akdt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory through tonight - .
Today - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.Tonight - NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.Sun - Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Sun night - Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Mon - N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Tue - E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.Wed - S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 271226 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 426 AM AKDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

We start off the weekend with a front over the western Gulf and Kodiak Island with upper level ridging building into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. While the ridge is not terribly strong and upper level temperatures remain cool , it will be enough to keep sunny skies over much of Southcentral and even clear out Kodiak Island tonight as well. There are two subtle changes developing in the forecast as compared to yesterday. The first is that a surface trough will develop along the north Gulf coast tonight into Sunday. This may increase the winds in Valdez and Seward overnight and then keep the sea breeze out of these areas for much of Sunday.

The second item is increasing instability over the Copper River Basin on Sunday and how far west showers are able to develop. This is due to a very weak upper level trough that extends out of the Interior and over the Wrangell mountains. This trough will strengthen enough overnight that it should cause some showers over the elevated terrain of the Copper River Basin Sunday and Sunday night. The question is how far west these showers will make it. The latest hi-resolution models are showing the possibility that there could be showers over the Talkeetna Mountains Sunday afternoon and evening as far west as Hatcher Pass. This is reasonable due to the cold air aloft and the potential for the south and southwest slopes of the mountains, which have lost a lot of their snow, to create an elevated heating source to kick off these showers. At this point they look to be just a few showers and there does not look to be enough lift for thunderstorms. However, this is a change from yesterday with the increasing chance for this to develop. On Monday, that upper trough will head into the Yukon and take the showers with it.
Monday will also see a general increase in cloudiness across Southcentral as the weak upper level ridge breaks down.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday morning)...

Low pressure in the vicinity of the Shumagin Islands continues to weaken and exit south to the North Pacific today. Northerly flow on the backside of this low will be the main weather player today for the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) today and into the day on Sunday. The best chance of rain/snow shower mix will be today into this evening for Nelson Lagoon, Cold Bay, and False Pass as left over waves from pass overhead from the decaying upper low in the North Pacific. Meanwhile, showers taper off across Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta early this morning with dry weather expected the rest of today through most of the short-term period on Tuesday as an upper-level ridge builds over the area. The exception would be a few scattered showers around the foothills and terrain of Bristol Bay, the Kuskokwim Delta, and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley for Monday as the ridge retreats eastward.
Further to the west, the front of a weak low pressure system moving eastward through the North Pacific may clip portions of the Aleutian Chain, southern AKPEN, and Shumagin Islands Sunday and Monday bringing some scattered showers to those areas.

The next notable weather-maker arrives Monday morning to the western Aleutians as a North Pacific low lifts northward and sends its front to the east. Sustained gale-force winds are likely for the marine areas of the western Aleutians Monday and for the central Aleutians by Tuesday. The dominant precipitation-type with this system will be rain. However, as the storm occludes, colder air will work back in and there could be a change-over to rain/snow mix on Tuesday, especially for the western Aleutians.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Mon through Thu)...

An upper level trough will be situated over the southern Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday morning, crossing into the southwestern Gulf of Alaska, and a new upper level trough entering the western Bering Sea behind it. A building ridge is expected to remain situated over Southcentral Alaska. Through Tuesday, the ridge will likely extend from Southcentral into Southwest Alaska following the departure of the AKPen trough, while the western Bering system pushes a front across the Aleutians, likely reaching Unalaska by late Tuesday. The front is expected to generally weaken as it approaches Southwest and the resident ridge, but the parental low pressure system behind the front will likely move over the Western and Central Aleutians through Wednesday.

By Wednesday afternoon, the ridge over southern Alaska may begin to weaken as the upper-level support shows signs of shifting out of the area. This may allow for influence from the Bering low to move into Southwest Alaska and even Southcentral Alaska as the system approaches by late Thursday. Gauging impacts from this low in Southwest and Southcentral is still precarious given the uncertainty regarding the ridge movement, as well as the location/progression of the low itself. Model agreement regarding the progression and potency of these systems is not good, leading to a general uncertainty regarding timing the several fronts and lows to enter the Bering and move through the area. However, given the prolonged shift towards warmer weather over the next week expected, impacts from this system will likely not be winter weather. Although the overall synoptic setup is in fair agreement for the extended period, the details could mean bigger differences in the QPF and wind fields across the Bering and Southwest Alaska.

-CL

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Dolgoi Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:41 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:47 AM AKDT     7.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:21 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:35 AM AKDT     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:06 PM AKDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:16 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:10 PM AKDT     3.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dolgoi Harbor, Dolgoi Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Ukolnoi Island
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Sat -- 02:42 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:44 AM AKDT     7.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:19 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:35 AM AKDT     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:03 PM AKDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:16 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:10 PM AKDT     3.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ukolnoi Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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