Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Metlakatla, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 9:48PM Monday May 22, 2017 10:07 PM PDT (05:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:30AMMoonset 4:40PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 316 Pm Akdt Mon May 22 2017
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft late. Rain in the evening, then showers.
Tue..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
Tue night..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed night..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Metlakatla, AK
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location: 55.23, -131.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 222255
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
255 pm akdt Mon may 22 2017

Short term /through Tuesday night/ a front stalled over the
southern panhandle will move E of the area by late tonight. A weak
low will move into the SE gulf tonight, then across southern SE ak
tue. A high pressure ridge will build in behind the low tue
afternoon and Tue night. Used mainly 12z GFS to handle things
through Tue night, with main adjustment to shift the weak low a
little bit to the S of previous forecast. Did use 12z namnest to
help with some of the inner channel winds.

Main forecast concerns will be precip potential and winds.

Steadier rain with the front across the S should transition to
showers tonight as front moves E of them. The weak low will bring
more showers to the area late tonight and tue, especially over the
s half of the area. Once the weak low moves E of the panhandle tue
night, the shower threat should decrease from the nw. May see some
showers move into the far NW part of the area late Tue night as a
weak trof moves into the NW gulf.

Winds have dropped off over much of the area, with below SCA level
winds going on. Still around 20 kt over N lynn canal and clarence
strait this afternoon, but these will drop off tonight. More
significant winds will move into the area Tue and Tue night
especially along the outer coast as the high pressure ridge builds
in. Am expecting much of the E gulf to increase to NW 25-30 kt
tue afternoon with some gales likely for areas around cross sound
and S of port alexander. The nearby western inner channels will
pick up to 20-25 kt by Tue evening as the NW flow increases ahead
of the ridge building in. Could be locally windy along the
southern outer coast as well Tue night.

Otherwise, some clearing should develop from the NW Tue into tue
night over the panhandle as the NW flow gets going. May have
shallow marine layer clouds remaining over most of the gulf
though. Kept in mention of patchy fog for the far N area late tonight
as they may see more breaks in the clouds then. Think the fog over
the S will break up somewhat quickly this evening as front moves
out so will not mention it at this point.

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/ as of 10 pm Sunday. For
the start of the long range, at upper levels main features will
be high pressure ridge over the eastern gulf with a low north of
the bering sea with associated trough extending over the
aleutians. As the upper low begins to shift to the east the gulf
ridge will narrow and sharpen. By Friday the upper level trough
will have moved over the central gulf with the ridge axis now
moved over british columbia. For the rest of the weekend uncertain
if a wave will form over the northeast gulf.

At the surface the high pressure ridge will remain over the gulf
through the week. Main difference between previous forecasts is
indications that the trough from the bering sea low will move a
short wave into the north central gulf and this wave may ride
over the surface ridge and impact at least the northeast gulf, if
not the north central panhandle. At most thinking this would be
scattered to isolated showers mid week but may just move in mid
level cloud cover. As this wave dissipates, a return to high
pressure being the dominant feature. Will be watching for marine
layer formation under this gulf high.

The other trend for the long range is warming temperatures aloft,
with 850 mb temps reaching 8 to 10 c by the weekend. Have
continued to keep warm surface temps in the forecast, but with
uncertainty of marine layer formation have held off on getting
above the upper 60's, however 70 and higher is not out of the
question. Did drop yakutat temps a bit due to the incoming short
waves and onshore flow from ridge axis position.

Small craft winds on lee side of the ridge will diminish as the
axis moves east. Indication of tip jet formation near cross sound
and CAPE decision so keeping winds at least in the 15 to 20 kt
range for these locations. For rest of the inner channels not
expecting winds to be much more than 15 kt.

Used a blend of gfs/nam, which were in good agreement for the mid
week wave in the northeast gulf. Tempered down any pops from these
models due to initial uncertainty. Otherwise forecast confidence
is average.

Aviation Less wind and no wind shear reported today but wide
spread MVFR conditions across the panhandle with some scattered
ifr for the southern half due to a lingering moisture stream aimed
at the area. Low vis and ceilings expected to continue through
the night as onshore flow continues. By late tonight and tomorrow
vis and ceiling will be improving up to MVFR or better from N to s
as a low moves across the southern gulf turning flow more
offshore. Showers will also be shutting off from N to S at the
same time through the south will see some showers linger into tue
evening. Some gusty winds in places this evening but they are
expected to lighten up through the night and remain mostly low
tomorrow.

Hydrology Most of the small streams and smaller rivers are
falling at this point. Larger rivers are still rising though, but
they should begin to drop tue. We are watching mendenhall lake
closely though as it began rising this morning even though there
was little or no precip in the area from last night through early
afternoon. Latest image this afternoon from suicide basin showed
it had risen compared to yesterdays image, so believe that is not
the cause of this rise.

Ajk watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz041-042.

Small craft advisory for pkz022-033-043-051-052.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz053.

Rwt/prb
visit us at http://

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 27 mi56 min E 4.1 G 12 51°F 50°F1015 hPa
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 91 mi68 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 49°F 49°F3 ft1014.9 hPa (-1.8)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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SE4
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SE14
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G17
S11
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SE16
G26
SE19
G25
SE15
G20
SE12
G18
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G21
SE15
G19
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G16
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SE7
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G17
SE8
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G15
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G12
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G14
SE11
G18
SE11
G14
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G17
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ago
--
NW3
NW2
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SE11
G14
SE13
G17
SE14
G19
SE13
G19
SE15
G19
SE18
G23
SE11
G18
SE10
G15
E8
G15
SE11
G15
SE14
G18
SE10
G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK16 mi72 minSE 54.00 miRain Fog/Mist51°F48°F92%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from AMM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----SE6
G18
SE7S5
G14
SE7SE7S7
G15
--SE10
G15
S7
G17
----4--S6S10
G18
S7
G14
--S7S6S5SE5N8
1 day agoSE9
G14
SE10
G21
S10
G20
SE14
G23
SE14
G25
SE11
G23
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G23
SE12
G26
--SE14
G27
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G24
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G21
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G25
S11
G20
SE15
G25
SE16
G25
SE15
G23
--SE9
G22
S8
G15
----S9
G15
2 days agoS3SE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm--CalmNW4NW6N6S8--S10
G19
S13
G21
SW5SE10
G16
--SE11
G29
----

Tide / Current Tables for Alava Bay, Alaska
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Alava Bay
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Tue -- 03:54 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:22 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:24 AM AKDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:36 AM AKDT     14.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:29 PM AKDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:01 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:44 PM AKDT     16.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
14.912.38.64.61.3-0.5-0.31.75.18.81213.914.112.69.76.23.11.31.33.26.610.51416.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mary Island Anchorage, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska
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Mary Island Anchorage
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:55 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:21 AM AKDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:40 AM AKDT     14.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:24 PM AKDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:01 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:49 PM AKDT     17.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
15.212.68.74.61.2-0.6-0.31.85.18.812.114.114.412.89.86.12.91.11.33.36.610.614.116.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.