Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Metlakatla, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:56AMSunset 10:16PM Thursday June 22, 2017 7:16 AM PDT (14:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:28AMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 349 Am Akdt Thu Jun 22 2017
Today..Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tonight..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Metlakatla, AK
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location: 55.23, -131.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 221340
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
540 am akdt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis Low pressure in the eastern gulf will dissipate this
afternoon allowing a ridge of high pressure to extend across the
northern and eastern gulf. A weather front advancing into the
central gulf Friday morning will push the ridge into the
panhandle. Meanwhile low pressure persists across canada.

Short term Thursday through Friday night... The low responsible
for the convective air mass that has affected southeast alaska
for days still churns but in an aged, decrepit state. Hence we
keep scattered showers going through the day in the hopes that
they finally end this evening for all areas. There have been some
breaks overnight between showers, but these have resulted in some
very low cloud decks occasionally forming and not any
quintessential fog. As the low ceases to exist tonight, a ridge of
high pressure assumes control, and conditions will be much more
conducive to patchy fog development Friday morning.

A front entering the central gulf Friday will shove high pressure
over the panhandle. This will prima facie pump a warmer, more
stable air mass into the region. While we are currently
forecasting high temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees warmer on Friday,
it is concerning that models are seeming to slow the warming at
850 mb. With synoptic wind components very light, we should expect
mainly channel breezes to develop Friday, and this can limit
heating along immediate shorelines where the majority of our
communities are situated. Significant downsloping winds appear to
be absent as well. Nevertheless, MOS numbers are still buoyant.

Thus, we keep the numbers high at this time.

A chance of rain is reintroduced Friday night as the front nears
the coast. But because of the front's negative tilt, the chance of
rain will remain generally confined to the outer coast at least
initially Friday night. We bring the chance of rain farther
inland on Saturday.

Nam was the primary model of choice, although elements of the gfs
and ECMWF came in handy. Confidence is good to average for the
period.

Long term Saturday through Thursday... As of 9 pm
Wednesday... Period begins with low pressure system in the s
central gulf and ridge axis over the panhandle. Models in decent
agreement with the low moving towards the central panhandle sat
night into Sun before moving slowly inland mon. Surface ridge is
progged to develop over the gulf early next week and push eastward
through mid next week. Model solutions diverge by mid next week
with high pressure pushing E as low pressure moves into the gulf.

This will result in increased pops Sat into early next week before
a drying and warming trend through mid next week. Inherited
forecast represents this well, but did increase E winds in cross
sound to advisory levels for about 6 hours as high pressure moving
e interacts with the low moving into the gulf.

Aviation Scattered showers will cause some mvmc conditions
today from haines south. These conditions should improve markedly
by this evening with shower activity ceasing and clearing taking
hold. Saturated conditions in ketchikan, petersburg, and gustavus
have necessitated some morning ifr tempos for ceilings. Confidence
in impactful patchy fog early Friday morning at central southern
taf sites is low enough to omit at this time.

Marine With a low filling in the gulf and high pressure
ready to expand across the region, we expect light winds through
Friday. Thermally driven low pressure across canada may at times
enhance southerly winds through northern lynn canal. A front
entering the gulf Friday will increase easterlies across the gulf.

Cross sound will increase to small craft by Saturday.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Jwa bc
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 27 mi65 min Calm G 1 51°F 54°F1031 hPa
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 91 mi77 min S 3.9 G 3.9 51°F 52°F4 ft1031.2 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK16 mi21 minN 010.00 mi51°F48°F92%1030.3 hPa

Wind History from AMM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5--------SW7S7S8SW8SW84--S6S5S4S4--S4--SE3Calm--CalmCalm
1 day agoS456SW8--6S5S764SE9
G15
SE10
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--6S6S5--SE3SE33S4S5S6S5
2 days agoS9
G15
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G16
--SE6S76SE8S865------S5SW6SW6--S6--S4SE4--3S5

Tide / Current Tables for Alava Bay, Alaska
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Alava Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:28 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:03 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:54 AM AKDT     -2.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:14 PM AKDT     14.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:55 PM AKDT     1.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:41 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
16.414.110.25.61.3-1.6-2.5-1.21.85.99.812.914.313.811.68.452.61.72.95.79.613.516.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mary Island Anchorage, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska
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Mary Island Anchorage
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:29 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:05 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:50 AM AKDT     -2.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:17 PM AKDT     14.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 PM AKDT     1.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:40 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
16.814.410.45.71.3-1.7-2.5-1.1269.91314.514.111.88.44.92.41.735.99.713.616.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.