Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saxman, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:00PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 9:39 AM PDT (16:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:32AMMoonset 7:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 418 Am Akdt Tue Apr 25 2017
.small craft advisory this afternoon through tonight...
Today..Light winds becoming se 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 4 ft.
Tonight..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Wed..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Wed night..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft...except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Thu..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..NW wind 15 kt becoming se. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxman, AK
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location: 55.33, -131.63     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 251400
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
600 am akdt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis A gale force low will approach the extreme
southeastern gulf late Tuesday and then move slowly north along
the outer coast through Thursday before weakening. A ridge of high
pressure will build in over the eastern gulf and panhandle later
this week.

Short term /Tuesday morning through Wednesday night/ model
agreement on the approaching gale force low is overall pretty
good. Differences do exist, however. Because the track of this
system is so close to the panhandle, small differences can have a
large impact on the resultant forecast. Given this, have opted for
a middle of the road solution in terms of track and maintaining
consistency with the previous forecast. Current forecast increases
max marine winds in coastal zone 41 as well as the dixon entrance
to 40 kts this evening. Still am expecting strong wind gusts to
40 mph or higher over prince of wales island, but have delayed the
onset and cessation by 3 hours. A majority of the panhandle will
still be in an offshore regime when the front arrives which would
act to prevent or at least delay the onset of precipitation. Nam
in particular is depicting near total disruption of the front soon
after it makes landfall Tuesday evening. Other models, the ecmwf
and gem in particular, are much more aggressive at keeping the
front intact and pressing inland as well as north across the
panhandle. Used a blend of sref, gem, and namdng5 for the pop
grids and this represents the lowest confidence aspect of the
short term forecast. No changes to temperatures and snow levels
sufficiently high enough that snow is only a concern near white
pass early this morning and again tomorrow morning.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/ at upper levels broad area
of low pressure over the western gulf with a weakening low in the
eastern gulf. Building ridge over the eastern gulf and panhandle
mid week. The pattern shifts to the east with an upper low
developing in the southeast gulf by Saturday then tracking east.

Meanwhile another upper low moves in from the west near the
aleutian chain with ridging again over the eastern gulf by
Monday.

At the surface models continue to shift position of developing
surface lows in the gulf. The low moving up along the panhandle
coast from the south mid week expected to deepen to 994 mb off
the coast near sitka and becoming quasi stationary. This has been
a shift from previous models with the low center now further to
the north and west. In addition new runs keeping the low intact
for a longer period of time before finally dissipating Thursday
night. Changes due to this new location include an increase in
winds over the southeast gulf and increase pops over the southern
panhandle. Surface ridging behind the low will keep onshore flow
and thus keep at least chance pops for the end of the week.

Similar pattern for the weekend with another low moving up the
panhandle coast from the south, but lower confidence on exact
track due to large model spread. Expect higher winds over the
southeast gulf, higher pops over the southern third of the
panhandle and as least a short dry period due to offshore flow for
the northern areas. For the rest of the extended range while
models are in poor agreement on details they are showing the
continued pattern of waves moving into the region with a few
breaks.

Inner channel winds will see a number of speed and directional
changes as these surface lows move in and out of the region with
ridging over the panhandle in between. Due to the lows being at
peak strength while in the south highest winds, potential gale
force, will occur there. Temperature trend cools a bit for day
time highs due to the increased precip and cloud cover but warms
overnight for the same reasons. Only potential for late spring
snow is at high elevations.

Used a blend of gfs/ecmwf for Thursday into Thursday night as both
were showing a deeper low over the eastern gulf. These models were
close on strength but a bit off of exact position, hence the
blend. Overall this somewhat model agreement for the ecmwf/gfs
lasts through the rest of the forecast period. Decided to use new
wpc for its ensemble blend of these models. There were only minor
difference for this time frame between inherited grids and new
wpc. Forecast confidence is below average due to the the model
spread and run to run inconsistency.

Aviation Large areas of imc this morning due to both low cigs
and reduced vsby due to patchy fog. Conditions expected to
improved to mvmc, but llws and turbulence will become an issue,
particularly over the southern zones as the low approaches.

Marine Seas forecast to build to 8 ft or higher over the
eastern gulf south of CAPE edgecumbe by this afternoon. 8 foot
contour will then spread north to CAPE spencer by Wednesday night
with seas maxing out around 16 ft over coast marine zone 41 and
most of this being a wind wave.

Ajk watches/warnings/advisories
Public... Strong wind from 4 pm akdt this afternoon through late tonight
for akz027.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz041-042.

Small craft advisory for pkz022-033>036-043.

Fritsch/prb
visit us at http://

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 0 mi58 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 41°F 46°F1007.1 hPa
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 75 mi90 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 1006.1 hPa43°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 79 mi100 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 43°F 46°F2 ft1006.6 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK4 mi47 minN 00.50 miFog41°F41°F100%1007.2 hPa
Annette Island Airport, AK20 mi47 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F44°F83%1006.8 hPa
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK23 mi2.7 hrsN 010.00 miA Few Clouds40°F39°F97%1007.2 hPa

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3E4E5--NW9NW7N5NW6NW45NW5N9NW6NW5W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE10SE7E12SE15E14SE11SE10E10SE10E12SE11SE10SE10E7E8SE4CalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoN11N10NW11NW10NW11NW10NW8NW8NW3Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE6S6S5S5SE4E7

Tide / Current Tables for Ketchikan, Tongass Narrows, Alaska
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Ketchikan
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Tue -- 12:25 AM AKDT     16.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:17 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:31 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:38 AM AKDT     -1.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:51 PM AKDT     16.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 PM AKDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:12 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
16.616.514.210.25.61.4-1.1-1.50.54.18.512.615.416.214.811.57.230.2-0.51.14.5913.3

Tide / Current Tables for Coon Island, George Inlet, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska
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Coon Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:17 AM AKDT     16.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:31 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:30 AM AKDT     -1.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:43 PM AKDT     16.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM AKDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:12 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
16.616.213.69.651-1.3-1.40.84.79.11315.51614.310.96.62.6-0-0.41.45.19.513.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.