Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:59 PM Moonrise 11:14 PM   Moonset 5:29 AM

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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 331 Am Akdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Today - SE wind 10 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Tonight - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Fri - Light winds becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Fri night - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat - S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Sun - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Mon - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 251527 CCA AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 408 AM AKDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SHORT TERM
High pressure expands over the AK Gulf and Panhandle with the resulting blocking pattern providing more dry weather, light and variable winds, and warm temperatures.
Residual rain showers over the southern panhandle end this morning. the remaining moisture and clearing skies allowed for some patchy fog formation. HiRes model boundary layer RH gave indication of marine layer formation which match initially with night time micro physics satellite imagery. However it wasn't as wide spread as indicated by airport observations. Keeping an eye on if this stratus deck forms and possibly moves inland. Little change made to previous forecast as models remained in line. Main forecast question is if marine layer with form and how far inland it would track.

LONG TERM
Through the long term a Rossby wave will shift towards the western seaboard carrying an open 500mb trough and associated surface low into the Gulf. While Friday still looks quite agreeable, light winds and warm temperatures, expect southeasterly winds to increase 22-27 knots south of Cape Fairweather into Dixon Saturday morning along with a southerly 8 to 12ft fresh swell. The highest of these significant heights look to remain south of Cape Decision. For this weekend, main areas of concern for mariners operating in smaller vessels in our waters is Cross Sound south along the coast of Prince of Wales, southern Chatham, and southern Clarence into Dixon Entrance.

While the overall theme remains the same for this system, clusters are starting to highlight an eastward shift of the surface low over the weekend, with a slightly steeper pressure gradient stretching into Haida Gwaii. These features in the ensembles could increase southerly winds west of Haida Gwaii and in Hecate Strait, resulting in an increase of the significant wave heights moving into Dixon and southern Clarence; have adjusted the forecast accordingly.

Regarding precipitation and guidance analysis, we can take two stances; one of the realistic optimist, while the other is the defensive pessimist. Regarding the former, guidance from CW3E Scripps highlights an uptick of IVT moving into Queen Charlotte sound, with members starting to bring more moisture north into the southern Panhandle. While amounts and rates still look abysmal, we could see a bit more rain than our previous forecasts, perhaps 1 to 1.5 inches or so of light rain accumulation through the weekend into Tuesday morning.

Switching to the defensive pessimist, while a few members of IVT guidance are bringing rain north, the majority of solutions continue to keep higher IVT values further south, with less than 1 inch of total rainfall more likely into Monday. To put this pessimism into context, precipitation sites in the south are reporting 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the month, where April normals for Ketchikan are around 10 inches. For now, the published forecast indicates less than 1 inch totals over the weekend. No matter our attitudes on how this metaphorical milk is spilled, the central and southern Panhandle will likely finish the month far under normal precip amounts.

AVIATION
Some MVFR conditions early this morning due to patchy for formation, otherwise another day of VFR with some sea breeze development in the late morning but no significant wind concerns.
Watching for marine layer formation under the gulf high pressure.
HiRes boundary layer indicates the low cloud deck moving inland tonight, but it also has more low clouds early today, which were not as wide spread.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

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