Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saxman, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 9:01PM Thursday August 17, 2017 4:29 AM PDT (11:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:46AMMoonset 5:24PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 657 Pm Akdt Wed Aug 16 2017
Tonight..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers late.
Thu..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
Thu night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
Fri..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
Fri night..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
Sat..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxman, AK
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location: 55.33, -131.63     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 162256
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
256 pm akdt Wed aug 16 2017

Short term A weakening short-wave with an associated low has
moved into the northern panhandle and we should begin to see
pressure rises shortly this evening as ridging develops behind.

This will translate into small craft winds that due to begin
shortly in northern lynn canal, peaking at 30 kt southerly later
tonight. Rain will all but transition to showers as cooler air
migrates aloft behind the front.

A longwave trough deepening across western alaska will spark a
slight chance of thunderstorms spreading east from the zone 52
later tonight into Thursday. Yakutat and sitka have been included
in the threat area.

Examining satellite imagery stretching from the gulf westward
across the north pacific, one can detect a virtually uninterrupted
stream of deep moisture. From afar, it aligns into an even arc of
some sort. But upon closer inspection, one can pick out kinks
within the arc. These are what the models are desperately trying
to detect. We look to have another low weaker low embedded in the
southwest flow on Thursday, again tracking very similarly to the
low today.

Friday, more showers follow within broad onshore flow. While
models indicate more concentration east of yakutat, a low due to
form across the northern gulf will likely keep showers numerous
over the northeast gulf as well.

High and low temperatures will be less interesting than the tiny
diurnal changes with this pattern. Dress no differently daytime
than nighttime, just take the rain jacket.

Nam GFS were used for through Friday with a nudge toward gfs
Friday night. Forecast confidence is good for showers and
temperatures.

Long term Beyond Thursday's storm, a weaker shortwave
approaches the southeast gulf on Friday. With solutions
indicating varying degrees of intensity, we drew a moderately
weak system from which we can build if we need to strengthen as
it moves into the panhandle. If anything, the system will help
reinforce some cooler air aloft and keep showers entrenched
across southeast in the zonal flow that sets up through Saturday
night. The short-wave's passage across the southern panhandle
leaves weak ridging over the inner channels and weak troughing
over the gulf. This pattern begins to amplify later in the weekend
as a western gulf system arrives, possessing the deeper tropical
moisture from former tropical storm banyan. Therefore we have
increased southerlies and southeasterlies over the gulf at this
time, but both ECMWF and GFS raises winds even further to 25 kt.

The system pressing into the western gulf will have originated
within a very moist region of the western pacific. Satellite
imagery already indicates banyan showing a slight eastward
component within its current trajectory. This will increase as it
approaches the main jet region. GFS ensembles are showing a high
probability of integrated vapor transport in excess of 250 kg m s
across the gulf and southern panhandle late Sunday into Monday.

However, just as quickly this feature ejects to the east. Thus,
this setup is showing signs of atmospheric river development and
will indeed cause rivers to rise. However, at this stage, even if
it does develop, any flooding impacts are still to be determined.

In any event, what we can say with certainty is that these
successive storms are priming soils in the panhandle for potential
impacts later in the season. In line with its tropical origins,
we raised snow levels up to around 10k feet by late Sunday as
well.

Beyond this, we lowered temperatures over the waters in line with
the mainly mid to upper 50s we have across the land areas. We used
a blend of nam, ecmwf, GFS Friday, followed by ECMWF and GFS for
the weekend. Confidence was too low to make changes beyond Sunday.

Forecast confidence high for wet weather and high that Monday's
eclipse will not be viewable from southeast ak.

Aviation Very moist lower level conditions for all of seak
except yakutat area. South of the yakutat area, widespread MVFR to
ifr conditions through the day with the lower clouds and rain and
areas of mist fog. Think the ceiling which have lifted slightly
during the day will lower again as the next weather front moves
inland late Wednesday night. Expect the lower cloud heights up to
about 2000 feet, and visibilities lower to the 2 to 5 mile range
as well.

Hydrology Rivers slowly continuing to rise with rains
continuing for the remainder of the week. No flooding hazards at
the present time, however the development of an atmospheric river
aimed mainly to southern half of the panhandle late Sunday then
being drawn northward Monday to Tuesday by a potential secondary
wave in the flow will bear watching. Rain totals over 2 to 4
inches possible across the panhandle through Sunday night and that
is missing the ar's return northward to the southern panhandle.

Will be watching the river levels and rain rates for the rest of
the week.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-042.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz022-041-043-051-052.

Adkins bezenek
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 0 mi48 min SE 5.1 G 6 54°F 56°F1017.2 hPa
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 75 mi80 min SE 13 G 19 55°F 1013.6 hPa52°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 79 mi90 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 55°F 55°F7 ft1017.1 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK4 mi37 minSE 48.00 miOvercast55°F54°F96%1017.1 hPa
Annette Island Airport, AK20 mi37 minSSE 55.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist55°F53°F93%1017.4 hPa
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK23 mi34 minSSE 67.00 miLight Rain55°F54°F96%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE13SE10SE12SE12SE13SE13
G18
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1 day agoSE11SE8SE10SE11SE9SE12
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2 days agoSE8SE7SE6SE9SE8SE11SE11SE12SE9SE10SE11SE10SE10SE9SE7SE5S5S5SE5SE7SE7SE7SE8SE14

Tide / Current Tables for Ketchikan, Tongass Narrows, Alaska
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Ketchikan
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Thu -- 12:46 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:27 AM AKDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:24 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:52 AM AKDT     11.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:28 PM AKDT     4.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:24 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:51 PM AKDT     15.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.94.72.20.80.92.34.67.39.811.411.911.29.57.35.44.24.35.57.710.412.914.615.114.1

Tide / Current Tables for Coon Island, George Inlet, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska
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Coon Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:45 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:19 AM AKDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:44 AM AKDT     11.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:20 PM AKDT     4.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:24 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:43 PM AKDT     15.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.44.31.90.712.54.97.61011.511.810.99.175.14.24.45.7810.613.114.61513.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.