Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saxman, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:17AMSunset 6:19PM Sunday October 22, 2017 12:20 PM PDT (19:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:29AMMoonset 7:22PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 432 Am Akdt Sun Oct 22 2017
Today..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
Tonight..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain late.
Mon..SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 8 ft. NEar ocean entrances, seas 8 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Mon night..SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
Tue..SE wind 10 kt becoming nw. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxman, AK
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location: 55.33, -131.63     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 221414
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
614 am akdt Sun oct 22 2017

Short term through Monday night a low pressure area just
offshore the central outer coast will move across the central
panhandle today and weaken. Another low will move NE into the area
mon, but there are some differences in model low tracks. They are
generally showing a track across the central panhandle, but there
are about 100-150 mile differences in where it crosses the central
area. Current forecast has it on the more northern end of the
model tracks, and given some uncertainty on another system to the
w which could affect the low track, decided to keep that system
track as is. Did adjust the low crossing area today by using 06z
namnest, which shifted it a bit further n.

Low moving through the area today will have a small band of 30-35
kt winds on the S and E side of it. This wind band should affect
mainly the central panhandle. Winds of 20-30 kt will be possible
further s, with 15-20 kt for much of the N today, although these
winds will be diminishing. Enhanced shower activity will occur on
e side of the system, with the heaviest showers expected over the
central area.

Low moving in for Mon will have more widespread wind and some
heavy rain with it. Low level jet at 925 mb could be 60+ kt ahead
of associated frontal band, but will be within warm advection, so
downward momentum transport is not expected, but strength of
system overall should be enough for locally strong winds over the
southern area. Rainfall could exceed 3 inches over the southern
area Mon into Mon evening. Put out sps about this system for
southern area. Further n, could see significant rainfall as well
in deformation frontogenesis band on N side of low, and another
complication to worry about is potential for snowmelt cooling to
occur, which could cause precip to change to wet snow in most
intense precip. Models hint at this possibility with small area of
near zero 925 mb temps in n-central area. Given some low track
uncertainties, not mentioning this snow potential in forecast attm
but later shifts will need to monitor.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday ... As the surface low that
is expected to impact our area Monday exits east into canada, an
additional two surface lows are expected to develop, one over the
northern gulf and a second out of the south-central gulf. The low
to the north should quickly weaken and lift northeast into the
yukon territories of canada. The second low with a more southern
origin is expected to push east-northeast through the southern
portion of the panhandle and continue into british columbia,
canada. This system will also bring a more subtropical push of
moisture on Tuesday; precipitable water analysis shows some
anomalously high values with this system, so we're expecting a wet
event centered near the southern panhandle, as of right now. As
both of these features weaken, a ridge of high pressure will begin
to build over the eastern gulf Wednesday, with the ridge axis
stretching north to south just offshore of the panhandle. The
offshore flow with this ridge should provide a brief respite from
the precipitation that has been constant these last few days.

Winds are also expected to diminish across the panhandle briefly
with this ridge.

All models continue to point to a very wet event Thursday into
Friday of next week. The remnants of typhoon lan are expected to
wrap into a trough coming across the bering sea early this week,
with the moisture becoming embedded with the circulation.

Precipitable water analysis also indicates some anomalously high
amounts with this system. However, models still cannot agree as to
where the more significant precipitation amounts will fall in our
area.

Generally, there has not been a lot of model agreement as of late,
especially regarding the set up of surface level features. We
decided to lean more towards the ECMWF for the earlier long term,
mainly Tuesday through Thursday, as it has had more run to run
consistency and has performed better than other models with
current systems.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz042.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-022-031-033>035-041-043.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz051-052.

Rwt voveris
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 0 mi51 min E 5.1 G 7 49°F1000.5 hPa
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 75 mi71 min SE 8 G 14 45°F 997 hPa41°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 79 mi81 min SSW 14 G 18 49°F 51°F4 ft1000.8 hPa (+5.6)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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NE8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK4 mi28 minESE 610.00 miOvercast49°F46°F90%1001.2 hPa
Annette Island Airport, AK20 mi28 minVar 510.00 miOvercast49°F44°F83%1001.6 hPa
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK23 mi25 minSW 710.00 miOvercast50°F44°F80%1001 hPa

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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4S3CalmS3S5S3S7S4S7S5S5SE8SE10
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1 day ago5S5SE9SE12SE6SE5SE5S6S4S5SE7SE11SE10S73S6SE11
G19
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2 days agoSE6S4CalmCalmW5NW5CalmCalmCalmS4S3S3S3SE3SE3SE5S6S4S3SE6CalmSE7SE6SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Ketchikan, Tongass Narrows, Alaska
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Ketchikan
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Sun -- 02:54 AM AKDT     15.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:31 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:37 AM AKDT     2.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:28 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:43 PM AKDT     16.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:22 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:06 PM AKDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.41214.415.214.111.47.94.62.52.33.96.910.513.815.916.314.811.77.63.60.7-0.60.22.6

Tide / Current Tables for Coon Island, George Inlet, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska
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Coon Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:46 AM AKDT     15.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:31 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:29 AM AKDT     2.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:28 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:35 PM AKDT     16.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:21 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:58 PM AKDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.812.314.615.113.710.97.44.22.42.44.27.410.914.11616.114.411.173.10.4-0.60.43

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.