Sunday, April22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nelson Lagoon, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 9:45PM Sunday April 22, 2018 1:50 PM AKDT (21:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:00AMMoonset 2:43AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ155 South Of The Ak Peninsula Castle Cape To Cape Sarichef- 357 Am Akdt Sun Apr 22 2018
.small craft advisory through Monday...
Today..NW wind 30 kt. From the shumagin islands e, ne wind 15 kt becoming nw 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
Tonight..SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
Mon..S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
Tue..SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
Wed..SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
Thu..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nelson Lagoon, AK
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location: 55.58, -161.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 221304
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
504 am akdt Sun apr 22 2018

Analysis and upper levels
An upper level low centered over the bering just to the north of
the pribilof islands early this morning will rotate to the south
as a surface low south of the alaska peninsula and associated
upper trough lifts gradually north and east. An associated frontal
system stretching from the alaska peninsula east across the
central gulf continues north, bringing gales to the gulf and
strong gap winds to the typical channeled locations such as
turnagain arm and the gaps and passes in the alaska aleutian
range. A deformation band extends from bristol bay north along the
southwest alaska coastal waters and then curves back to the
northwest towards the upper low near the pribilofs. To the west a
frontal system associated with a deepening surface low tracking to
the east away from the kamchatka peninsula approaches the western
aleutians.

Model discussion
Models remain in good agreement through Monday with some small
differences becoming introduced Monday night and Tuesday
regarding the smaller scale troughs associate with the low in the
bering and the triple point feature that rotates north across the
bristol bay coast.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will continue. Northerly down-inlet flow
will keep the easterly turnagain arm surface winds bent south and
away from the terminal. Wind shear however will still remain a
concern this morning. East to southeasterly flow across the area
will gradually diminishing tonight through Monday morning.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A strong front in the gulf of alaska is pushing toward the north
gulf coast this morning bringing increasing winds and rain to
coastal regions. The wind through the typical gaps inland will be
a little different today as the low center near kodiak will have
the turnagain arm winds turn down cook inlet today instead of
moving over anchorage. The copper river winds should also be
mitigated as the pressure gradient will be less in that region
today.

Tomorrow will see a little better chance for rain showers to make
it inland to the lee side of the mountains as the cross-barrier
flow will be less than today.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2 Sat and sun)...

just when signs of spring were perhaps on the horizon, the
weather pattern is set to turn much more fall-like over the next
several days. First things first, while the low SE of the alaska
peninsula is falling apart, it has helped to push some more
moisture up into bristol bay and through the west coast. This
moisture is interacting with what is left of the lift associated
with the arctic trough over the eastern bering. This will allow
steady precipitation to redevelop across this area through the
day. By later today, this area of precipitation will push east and
spread inland from the coast through tonight. Ahead of this
front, gusty east to southeast winds will continue through the
day. These winds should also help keep the airmass warm enough
that the precipitation should remain all rain for population
centers as it does move in. However, by mon, the front gets hung
up over the lower kuskokwim valley. Cold air filters in behind it,
so those inland locations should see a gradual mix to some light
snow as precipitations winds down Mon afternoon. This forecast did
keep the pops higher over the alaska range, but we still don't
expect much accumulation at all.

By late Mon into Tue is when the bigger weather maker moves in.

A very broad (picture basically the entire bering sea) low
pressure center moves towards the central bering. As it does so,
plenty of jet support aloft and some upper level vorticity round
the base of the low. As they emerge on its SE flank (bristol bay),
the combine to produce another triple point low. This feature
looks to take aim right at the west coast as it tracks quickly
from north to south. This will bring moderate to heavy rain to
upslope areas and the coast. The bigger impacts though will likely
be strong east to southeast winds across much of SW ak. Gusts to
50 mph would not be out of the question, which is a little unusual
as we head towards the start of may. Then... As the parent low
moves towards the coast... A long fetch over the bering with an
onshore pulse of winds could make for some high surf tue-wed. Stay
tuned to the forecast for updates regarding this potent weather
system.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The bering is set to see a fairly active next couple of days. The
remnants of the arctic trough will continue to impact the eastern
bering today with continued snow showers for the pribilof islands
through this morning. This feature will also keep rain falling
over much of the alaska peninsula until it is pushed east this
afternoon. Meanwhile, another stronger low is tracking towards the
western aleutians. Its accompanying gale-force front will slowly
weakens as it moves towards adak and atka today. On the south side
of the system though, cold air advection and a strong upper level
jet will keep gales in the forecast. The system then maintains its
strength in the upper 960mb-lower 970mb range as it continues to
recycle cold air across the entire bering. Its progress slows and
nearly stalls over the central bering into tue. This will leave
the whole domain vulnerable to showers (possibly mixing with snow
at times) and gale-force (or very near gale-force) winds. Mon
night into tue, a low will develop near bristol and strengthen as
it skirts through the eastern bering into the bering strait.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Beginning Monday night a broad area of low pressure will continue
to dominate the bering with its front having pushed through the
southern mainland bringing rain to the north gulf coast and
southwest alaska. Current model runs are in better agreement than
previous runs with a triple point low forming in the eastern
bering Monday night, but there does remain some discrepancies with
placement of this feature. These discrepancies grow through
Tuesday as the triple point low moves into the northern bering
while the parent low tracks east. Impacts will remain fairly
similar for the southern mainland and aleutians even through
guidance is struggling with where exactly to put these two lows.

On Wednesday high pressure will build in from the west and the
models fall apart with how to handle low pressure over the bering
with widely varying solutions. This resulted in ensembles being
preferred for the remainder of the week into the weekend.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 119 120 130 131 132 138 139 160 175-178 180-185.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jr
southcentral alaska... Ez
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mso
long term... Dk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KGCA2 - 9459881 - King Cove, AK 66 mi50 min N 25 G 39 38°F 40°F996.4 hPa (+2.4)

Wind History for Sand Point, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nelson Lagoon, AK30 mi54 minW 19 G 248.00 miOvercast and Breezy38°F34°F86%996.2 hPa

Wind History from AOU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10NE9NE6N9N12N17N18N17NE15NE20NE14NE13N11N8NW3W4SW9W12W11W14W17W16W17W19
G24
1 day agoNW6NW8NW6N6NW4N6N7N7N7NE7NE5E5E7E7SE7CalmE6SE3E5E5E6NE7NE7NE9
2 days agoNE10NE10NE5NE5E8NE7NE4NE3CalmCalmS5SW6SW5W5W8W7W7W5W7W5NW5NW5NW6NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Bay, Pavlof Bay, Alaska
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Canoe Bay
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Sun -- 02:19 AM AKDT     3.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:42 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:22 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:38 AM AKDT     6.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:00 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:46 PM AKDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 03:34 PM AKDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:05 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:31 PM AKDT     4.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.83.43.13.23.64.24.95.666.15.64.63.31.90.70.100.51.22.23.34.14.54.5

Tide / Current Tables for Beaver Bay, Alaska
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Beaver Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:31 AM AKDT     3.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:40 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:21 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:39 AM AKDT     6.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:59 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:46 PM AKDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 02:46 PM AKDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:32 PM AKDT     5.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
43.73.74.14.85.56.36.86.96.45.33.92.410.2-00.41.32.43.64.65.15.14.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.