Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nelson Lagoon, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 7:48PM Monday September 25, 2017 2:11 PM AKDT (22:11 UTC) Moonrise 12:46PMMoonset 9:24PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ155 South Of The Ak Peninsula Castle Cape To Cape Sarichef- 408 Am Akdt Mon Sep 25 2017
.small craft advisory Tuesday...
Today..SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..NE wind 15 kt except ne 20 kt from the shumagin islands e. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..NE wind 20 kt except N 30 kt from the shumagin islands e. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Wed through Fri..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nelson Lagoon, AK
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location: 55.58, -161.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 251252
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
452 am akdt Mon sep 25 2017

Analysis and upper levels
An elongated upper level low is currently centered just to the
north of bristol bay. A secondary low center has dissipated into
an embedded shortwave trough over southcentral. The upper level
low complex is reflected down at the surface and is producing
areas of rain and showers over southwest and southcentral alaska.

Areas of heavier rain showers are embedded within the main
precipitation field over the gulf coast and the northern cook
inlet due to low and mid level instability underneath the
dissipating upper level low. Out west, an upper level ridge is
located between the kamchatka peninsula and the western aleutians
leading to northerly flow across most of the bering with plenty of
cloud cover and a few rain showers.

Model discussion
Numerical models are doing a good job at handling the evolution of
the low pressure system over southwest alaska as it continues to
rotate and drift south through Tuesday. Models have continued to
struggle with a low moving up into the southern gulf on Wednesday,
with varying run-to-run solutions and inconsistencies between
models. The GFS has been the most consistent over the past couple
of days and is keeping the low center south of kodiak island. The
other models have begun to trend towards this solution so the gfs
was the model of choice for the morning forecast package.

Aviation
Panc... Low stratus will be an issue again this morning in the
anchorage bowl. The lower clouds look to stay north over the knik
arm and the jber area but may creep down towards the terminal,
though this is unlikely with periodic gusty up inlet flow. For
now, just included a few stratus layer for the morning period.

Looking further down the cook inlet, satellite imagery and
observations show no sign of low stratus that could advect north
towards the terminal, so anchorage is expected to remainVFR
throughout the day.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Rain showers will continue to diminish this morning as the upper
level trough axis slowly moves northward and dissipates. As
the clouds slowly clear from south-north, there remains
uncertainty as to how much fog stratus will develop over the cook
inlet region this morning with light southwesterly flow. So far
this morning any fog development has been very spotty and short
lived, so at this point it doesn't appear that anything more than
patchy fog will occur this morning. By this afternoon the focus on
the forecast will begin to shift towards the gulf as the next gale
force low begins to push northward. While there remains some
uncertainty in the exact track of this low, there is good
confidence that impacts from this low will be confined to the
central gulf and kodiak island until late Tuesday when rain and
gusty winds will begin to spread into the north gulf coast. The
low center will however remain near or south of kodiak island,
leaving much of southcentral dry but generally cloudy with
persistent offshore flow through Tuesday. Rain then looks to
spread into southcentral for Wednesday as a stronger shortwave and
deep moist southerly flow spreads throughout the gulf.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A weakening low in bristol bay continues to support areas of
showers along the immediate coastline this morning. A separate
weak deformation zone aloft north of the upper trough is
supporting a narrow strip of rain across the kuskokwim delta, but
this feature should weaken today. Eventually, the bristol bay low
will move southwest with another north pacific low moving toward
kodiak island Tuesday. This will allow for the development of an
offshore pressure gradient, allowing for a gradual drying trend
along with decreasing fog potential heading into Wednesday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A low in bristol bay today will weaken and then drift southwest
into the north pacific. Broad northerly flow will encompass all
of the bering sea into Wednesday with periodic light rain and
showers. The northerly winds will remain at or below 25 knots as
the pressure gradient is not particularly strong.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Models have come into better agreement with an area of low
pressure moving across kodiak island on Wednesday. The recent
forecast reflects the increase in model agreement with gale force
winds likely across the northwestern gulf of alaska and shelikof
strait Tuesday night and Wednesday. In addition, it looks like a
piece of the subtropical jet will bring an influx of moisture
allowing for some decent rainfall over kodiak island and the gulf
coast. Interior locations will remain showery as the low doesn't
take a favorable track for any type of downsloping conditions.

Otherwise, the forecast hasn't deviated much from yesterday in
thinking that upper level trough digging out across alaska late
this week will quickly be shunted eastward by a transitory
shortwave ridge. Behind this ridge will be yet another upper level
trough but this time it's the arctic jet stream that is
strengthening rather than any subtropical influence. With colder
air expected to move over the bering sea and much of alaska, a
cooler and showery period of weather is expected through the
upcoming weekend.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood warning 121 125.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Kvp
southcentral alaska... Dek
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ja
long term... Mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK 44 mi42 min SSE 8.9 G 13 48°F 51°F1004.6 hPa
KGCA2 - 9459881 - King Cove, AK 66 mi42 min NW 13 G 19 48°F 51°F1004.5 hPa

Wind History for Sand Point, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nelson Lagoon, AK30 mi16 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast49°F44°F83%1004.8 hPa

Wind History from AOU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW18
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S14S14S15S15S14S18S14S13NW8W5SW4S7S7S6SW6S6S5
1 day agoW21
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2 days agoNW16N17N16NW18NW16
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NW18NW16W21
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NW19W22
G29

Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Bay, Pavlof Bay, Alaska
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Canoe Bay
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Mon -- 12:59 AM AKDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM AKDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:55 PM AKDT     2.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:45 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:11 PM AKDT     6.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:34 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:24 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.711.72.73.84.75.15.14.74.13.42.82.62.93.54.35.15.86.15.95.24.23.1

Tide / Current Tables for Beaver Bay, Alaska
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Beaver Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:12 AM AKDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:22 AM AKDT     5.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:35 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:08 PM AKDT     3.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:43 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:12 PM AKDT     6.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:33 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:23 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.811.834.25.35.85.85.44.743.33.13.23.94.85.76.56.96.764.93.72.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.