Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thorne Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:17AMSunset 4:01PM Monday January 22, 2018 7:15 AM AKST (16:15 UTC) Moonrise 11:20AMMoonset 11:42PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 425 Am Akst Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory late tonight...
Today..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain showers in the morning.
Tonight..SE wind increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances.
Tue night..SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain and snow showers.
Wed..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Fri..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thorne Bay, AK
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location: 55.92, -132.37     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 221509
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
609 am akst Mon jan 22 2018

Short term through Tuesday night large scale upper trof will
remain over the gulf through Tue night. Base of upper trof will
close off to an upper low over the far S gulf today, and this low
will shift E to the S of haida gwaii by late Tue night. Several
shortwaves will move across the area through tue. A series of low
pressure trofs associated with the shortwaves will move across the
area through tue. A low pressure area will develop over the ne
pacific tonight and move N to near haida gwaii by late tue
afternoon. An occluded front will move into the far S panhandle
by Tue evening. Used NAM ec blend for pressures and winds. Namnest
was incorporated in the wind blend for Tue and Tue night to show
more defined outflow then.

Main forecast concerns will be precip potential type amounts and
winds. First main shortwave and sfc trof will move N across the
area today. Expect a well organized band of showers with this
feature as it moves through. There is a narrow warm slot just
ahead of the trof which will keep some rain mixing in over the s
half of the area. As the trof moves through, colder air aloft
should transition much of the precip to snow showers. Currently
think the central and N will see 1-3 inches of snow with this
trof today.

Trickier situation will develop for tonight. Another shortwave
will move NE into the area, and a band of showers will come in
with it. This band may set up more parallel to the deep layer flow
which could lead to training cells over a narrow area. Models hint
at this but differ on placement of the band. At this point,
keeping a general 1-3 inches of snow with this feature for tonight
over the n, but later shifts will need to monitor for higher
amounts where this band sets up. Expect the S to see mainly
scattered snow showers although the outer coast could see more.

As low moves N toward haida gwaii tue, showers will be pushed back
to the W over the gulf as flow becomes increasingly offshore. However,
precip with the low and its front will be moving into the far s
area late in the afternoon. Some of this precip will reach the
central area Tue night. Think most of the precip will be snow or a
rain snow mix to start, but likely transition to rain over the
far S Tue night. Snowfall amounts will be tricky as they will
depend on if and when precip changes to rain. Best chance for
accumulating snow will be over the s-central area Tue night where
the precip should remain mainly snow. Could be 2-4 inches in the
s-central area by daybreak Wed based on current timing of front
moving in.

Winds will be strongest near the trofs moving across the area. Sca
level winds are likely over the gulf with each trof, and some of
the inner channels will also see SCA level winds through tonight.

The low front moving N toward haida gwaii will increase offshore
winds Tue and Tue night. Could see gales for lynn canal and cross
sound by Tue evening... With SCA level winds over much of the
remaining inner channels and gulf areas by Tue night. The far se
gulf could see gales Tue into Tue evening ahead of the front
moving into the area.

Long term Wednesday through Monday ... Long range period
begins with an upper low south and east of the gulf of alaska
moving east towards washington. Another upper low located over
the northern interior will be tracking south and be over the
northwest gulf by Thursday morning. Upstream, a building upper
ridge will be situated over the bering sea. The upper low will
slowly track south and dominate the gulf by Friday morning. By
this time, the upstream ridge will have strengthened into an
omega block, with another upper low over the sea of okhotsk. By
the end of next weekend, the omega block remains strong and in
place while the upper low will have continued a slow track south
of the gulf of alaska.

The combined effect of the upper low over the gulf and the
building upper ridge to the west will be to advect in colder low
level air over the panhandle. Some modification of this airmass
will occur as it crosses a considerable distance over the open
ocean, but the ridge will prevent any warmer air from the west
from mixing in. 850h temperatures favoring rain on Wednesday and
Thursday during the day south of frederick sound, but then become
more supportive of snow all the way south to the dixon entrance
overnight both nights and then through at least Saturday.

1000-500 and 1000-850 thicknesses showing a similar pattern.

Daytime highs over the southern half of the panhandle from
frederick sound south indicating that there is a good chance that
at least some of the precipitation for this coming week will be in
the form of rain. Otherwise, what precip we do see may be mostly
in the form of snow. No well defined fronts currently being
depicted in medium to long range models, so convective precip
(showers) is anticipated through at least Wednesday night. 12
hour snow totals currently indicating possibly advisory level
snowfall Wednesday for central zones and Wednesday night for
northern zones south of berners bay. Convective nature of this
precipitation will cause the snow totals to be a constantly moving
target even as the event unfolds, so stay tuned for updates as the
week progresses.

No significant changes to pressure or winds. Pop and QPF primarily
from NAM Wednesday and Wednesday night with little change for the
remainder of the long range forecast. Daytime highs and overnight
lows generally nudged down slightly for the second half of the
week based on current model spectrum plots. Overall forecast
confidence is average, but below average for snow totals.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-022-033-036-041>043-051-052.

Rwt fritsch
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 19 mi66 min SE 12 G 16 39°F 1000.6 hPa39°F
GIXA2 42 mi24 min WNW 4.1 G 8.9 37°F 1004 hPa33°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 57 mi46 min E 6 G 13 38°F 43°F1004.5 hPa

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wrangell, AK39 mi20 minNE 69.00 miLight Snow35°F30°F85%1003.5 hPa

Wind History from AWG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4NW4NW4NW4NW4NW63NW4CalmSE4CalmSE4S3SE6E4------NE9--NE5E4E4NE6
1 day agoE11E4E4W3CalmCalmE5E6SE6E6E4E8NE7E6SW3CalmCalmE3E6CalmE3--NE6Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE5SE3E3--E3Calm--E656E7E11

Tide / Current Tables for Dewey Anchorage, Etolin Island, Alaska
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Dewey Anchorage
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Mon -- 04:06 AM AKST     15.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:00 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:02 AM AKST     3.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:20 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:58 PM AKST     14.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:02 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:12 PM AKST     1.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:41 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
58.611.914.315.314.612.59.56.54.33.44.16.2911.813.914.613.811.58.45.12.51.31.8

Tide / Current Tables for Olive Cove, Zimovia Strait, Alaska
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Olive Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:05 AM AKST     15.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:01 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:02 AM AKST     3.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:20 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:57 PM AKST     15.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:00 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:12 PM AKST     1.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:41 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.3912.414.915.915.2139.96.74.43.54.36.49.412.314.515.214.4128.75.32.61.41.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.