Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thorne Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:07AMSunset 8:42PM Thursday April 27, 2017 8:41 AM AKDT (16:41 UTC) Moonrise 6:30AMMoonset 10:08PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 741 Am Akdt Thu Apr 27 2017
.small craft advisory through today...
Today..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the evening.
Fri..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..SE wind 15 kt becoming n. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thorne Bay, AK
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location: 55.92, -132.37     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 271342
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
542 am akdt Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis A weakening gale force low west of port alexander will
move inland this afternoon near sitka. Widespread rain and showers
will continue as this low moves inland through Friday before high
pressure builds in Friday night. A low will move toward southern
southeast early Saturday with more chances for rain into Sunday.

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/ the low discussed
above can be seen moving east on satellite imagery toward the
central outer coast. The colder, higher cloud tops associated with
the front have cleared all but the far northern inner channels
and more cellular, convective clouds can be seen moving in off the
gulf and over the central/southern zones. A robust second wrap
has formed and will move ashore over the central outer coast later
this morning. Soon afterwards, the low itself will move inland
and begin to weaken quickly. Rain shower activity today could be
heavy at times over the central and southern panhandle. A still-tight
pressure gradient will result in small craft winds over the
central inner channels today with rapidly changing wind directions
possible as the low approaches the coast. Westerly or
southwesterly marginal gales are forecast for the southern coastal
marine zones today. Look for winds inside and outside to diminish
significantly overnight as the low weakens. Lingering shower
activity will diminish slowly but steadily through Friday night,
but chance pops remain in the forecast through the short term as
the next low approaches from the southwest. Existing forecast
remains on track so changes limited to pop and temps tonight.

Blended SREF and namdng5 for pop. MAX temps for today adjusted -
mostly down - per GFS mos. Overall forecast confidence is average.

Long term /Saturday to Thursday/ ridging over the eastern gulf
and panhandle expected to shift into british columbia as an upper
level trough/closed low moves into the southeastern gulf. 500 mb
vort MAX band associated with this trough may lift northward late
Saturday as ridging builds again over the central gulf and then
into the eastern gulf through Sunday. Upstream, a large deep
upper low moves over the aleutians and remains quasi-stationary
through mid week with the ridge remaining over the eastern gulf
and panhandle. By the end of the week this broad upper low will
likely shift east but uncertain on the exact track.

At the surface on Saturday there will be a weak low in the
northwest gulf with a developing low tracking south of the eastern
gulf. Lots of model spread on the track of this system, and with
the position of this low track differences will result in large
forecast variation. Best estimate is the low will move near haida
gwaii through Saturday and likely dissipate by early Sunday
morning. Seems to be a trend of models moving the low center
further south which will have more offshore flow for the northern
regions, thus drier weather, compared to the south which will have
greater chance for rain. Nudged winds from this system toward
small craft levels in the southeast gulf. Gfs/canadian have
trended further north with stronger winds than the ecmwf/nam which
also dissipate the low sooner. Decided best option was a
compromise blend until we get better model resolution. Beyond the
weekend models fell more in line with the next surface low near
the aleutians the the associated occluded front moving into the
gulf Monday into Tuesday. Later in the week a much stronger low
appears to track up from the southwest and will have more impact
with respect to winds/pop/qpf.

Once again the word of the long range is uncertainty, especially
for the weekend. Rmop values below 30% with the weekend low.

Values improve later in the week as the next systems move in and
model align. Used a blend of gfs/ecmwf for Saturday even though
they were not in great agreement. Did this to get a smoother wind
field and moderate any very low or high wind speeds. For the rest
of the long range utilized wpc for its use of ensembles. Forecast
confidence is below average.

Aviation Rain and showers along with some mvmc conditions
will continue across most TAF sites as a weakening low moves
inland near sitka. Visibility should be mostly vmc but occasional
MVFR may occur in heavier rain bands. Expect gusty winds across
most of the northern TAF sites as the low moves inland through
this afternoon before the pressure gradient weakens this evening.

Marine The compact low will result in limited fetch and produce
a steep, confused sea over the eastern gulf. Coastal buoys south
of CAPE spencer indicating combined seas of 8 ft as of early this
morning. Seas forecast to build to as high as 15 feet west of cape
decision later today before beginning to subside. Southwesterly
swell with a period of 9 to 12 seconds.

Ajk watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz042.

Small craft advisory for pkz022-031>036-041-043.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz051.

Fritsch/jra/prb
visit us at http://

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 19 mi32 min SE 13 G 19 44°F 1011.4 hPa37°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 57 mi42 min ESE 6 G 12 46°F1014.8 hPa
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 94 mi80 min S 17 G 29

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wrangell, AK39 mi46 minSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F39°F81%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from AWG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3W4CalmSE8S14
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E10E6S3SE5SE4CalmS8S12--S7E7SE5------NE4E4SE4
1 day agoNE3N4NW4NW8W4W5NW3CalmCalmCalmSW3SW4CalmSW4CalmCalmE4NE7--SE4E6E8E5E3
2 days agoE4NW5NW5W5W6W10W9W7SW4W6SW7W8SW5Calm--Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Dewey Anchorage, Etolin Island, Alaska
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Dewey Anchorage
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM AKDT     19.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:13 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:31 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:19 AM AKDT     -3.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:37 PM AKDT     17.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:26 PM AKDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:08 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
14.617.91917.713.98.73.1-1.4-3.6-3.1-0.14.69.814.216.917.21511.16.32.3-00.22.76.9

Tide / Current Tables for Olive Cove, Zimovia Strait, Alaska
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Olive Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:56 AM AKDT     19.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:29 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:19 AM AKDT     -3.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:36 PM AKDT     17.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:26 PM AKDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:09 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
15.218.519.618.214.493.3-1.3-3.5-30.14.910.314.817.517.715.511.46.62.40.10.32.97.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.