Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thorne Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 5:30PM Monday October 23, 2017 4:10 PM AKDT (00:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:38AMMoonset 7:56PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 312 Pm Akdt Mon Oct 23 2017
.gale warning through this evening...
Tonight..SE wind 35 kt diminishing in the evening, then becoming sw 10 kt late. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 4 ft late. Rain in the evening.
Tue..SE wind 10 kt becoming nw 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening.
Wed..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..NW wind 10 kt becoming se. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thorne Bay, AK
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location: 55.92, -132.37     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 232247
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
247 pm akdt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis A gale force low over the eastern pacific tracks ne
through the central panhandle Monday evening while weakening.

Another strong low will move NE through dixon entrance by Tuesday
evening. Outlook. A high pressure ridge will build over the
eastern ak gulf Wednesday.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night strong winds
and heavy rains were main impacts for the southern panhandle today
and early this evening as the gale force gulf low developed over
the SE gulf. Gusts of 40 to almost 50 mph were reported in zone
27 and 28. Weak atmospheric river produced rainfall amounts of
0.50 to nearly 2.00 inches over the southern regions. Rivers and
streams so far have been slow to react but are expect to rise,
however no flooding expected. As this low moves inland and weakens
will see a sharp decrease in rainfall rates and winds over the
gulf and southern panhandle. Wind directions will also rotate
counter clockwise as the low moves in. A southerly push as the low
center moves over the central panhandle and 30 kt LLJ will cause
a brief increase in winds there before diminishing. There may be
just enough clearing between post frontal showers tonight for
radiational fog to develop, but with shifting wind pattern held
off mentioning it for now. For Tuesday two lows will border the
area. One will be to the west nearing kodiak and increase winds
over the western gulf border. The other is another strong low
developing along the moisture stream oriented under the 300 mb jet
in the pacific. While this will produce another round of strong
winds and heavy rainfall the low center will mainly be to the
south of the panhandle keeping impacts limited for our region. A
building ridge Tuesday night into Wednesday will bring about some
clearing and a short period of dry weather. This dry period will
end once the next system tracks into the NE gulf through
Wednesday.

Some timing differences between models on speed of the low center
moving inland. Did nudge to nam GFS blend which were faster than
00z ECMWF weakening and moving the low inland. Newest model runs
all started to fall in line with the faster track. For the rest of
the time models were still mostly in line with previous forecast,
some lowering of pops Tue night for the central and northern
regions. Forecast confidence is average.

Long term Wednesday through Monday as of 10pm Sunday the
extended forecast begins with a low pressure system crossing from
the southern panhandle into canada. A drying trend is expected
early in the extended forecast between Wednesday and Thursday with
minimal shower activity as a weak ridge of high pressure builds.

Between Thursday and Friday a low pressure system west of the
aleutians will send a front northward across the gulf. While
confidence is lower with timing and location of this front,
moisture associated with it is of tropical origin, which could set
up another atmospheric river scenario for SE alaska. This will
pave the way for a wet weekend across SE alaska.

Little change was made beyond Friday in the extended forecast.

Ensemble forecast members and operational models still carry
large discrepancies moving into the weekend. Tuesday's forecast
was altered to shift the low's location over the southern
panhandle which transitioned into the start of the extended
forecast using the ecmwf. Winds were increased around this low;
however, winds underneath the ridge on Thursday were decreased
over the inner channels and panhandle.

Aviation A low pressure system will move across the central
panhandle this afternoon and evening. Rain will reduce ceilings
and visibilities to MVFR and ifr conditions at times. Gusty winds
will produce wind shear across southern and central areas of the
panhandle in the 35 to 55 kt range. The stronger winds, higher
wind shear and lowest ceilings and visibilities will be across
the southern portions of the panhandle.

Marine Gale force winds over the SE gulf diminish quickly this
evening along with gales over the southern inner channels. Seas
will remain at small craft levels due to swell for the current low
and next two systems for tue. Not until the ridge builds are seas
rally expect to subside below 8 ft. Tuesday small craft winds
over the central gulf from the low moving into kodiak. Central and
northern inner channel winds will have a sharp increase in speed
then flip direction and diminish as the current gulf low moves
inland. Tuesday into Wednesday while speeds will be mostly below
20 kt still getting plenty of direction flips as pressure
gradients change.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 7 pm akdt this evening for akz027-028.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz035-036-041>043.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-022-031>034-052.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz051.

Prb byrd
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 19 mi61 min SE 20 G 33 50°F 999.1 hPa47°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 57 mi41 min ESE 18 G 26 54°F 49°F1006.7 hPa
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 94 mi49 min SSW 31 G 49

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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G25
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NE8
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G19
SE14
G24
E11
G27

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wrangell, AK39 mi76 minE 16 G 234.00 miRain Fog/Mist48°F44°F87%1002.4 hPa

Wind History from AWG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5E5E6E3E7E11
G15
--------SE7Calm--E11
G14
E6E10E10E8E8E16
G22
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G21
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G25
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1 day agoE7--SW6E8
G14
NE8E6------3--E5--SE4CalmE4E4CalmCalmCalmE7W5N3SE4
2 days agoE9
G14
----NE6E8E8E8----E7NE9----E7E7E75E13
G21
E10E8E8E10E10
G17
E6

Tide / Current Tables for Dewey Anchorage, Etolin Island, Alaska
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Dewey Anchorage
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Mon -- 03:43 AM AKDT     15.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:38 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:24 AM AKDT     3.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:36 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:27 PM AKDT     16.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:56 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:56 PM AKDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.49.212.514.61513.710.97.64.83.23.45.28.211.614.416.11614.210.973.40.90.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Olive Cove, Zimovia Strait, Alaska
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Olive Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:42 AM AKDT     15.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:38 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:24 AM AKDT     3.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:37 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:26 PM AKDT     16.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:54 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:56 PM AKDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.79.613.115.215.614.211.37.94.93.33.55.48.5121516.716.614.711.37.33.610.21.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.