Wednesday, December13, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Naukati Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:36AMSunset 3:08PM Wednesday December 13, 2017 1:49 AM AKST (10:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:59AMMoonset 2:47PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 315 Pm Akst Tue Dec 12 2017
.small craft advisory tonight through Wednesday...
Tonight..E wind increasing to 25 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Wed..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Wed night..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Thu night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
Fri..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt becoming sw. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naukati Bay, AK
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location: 55.92, -133.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 122314
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
214 pm akst Tue dec 12 2017

Short term Persistent, anomalously deep troughing continues
over the western gulf of alaska through Wednesday night. Deep
layer moist southerly flow will continue to direct a series of
fronts across the panhandle. The first in the series of fronts
will track across the central and southern panhandle tonight. Rain
will be widespread and heavy at times south of frederick sound
tonight with small craft level winds over the outside waters and
spreading into clarence strait later this evening.

More substantial shortwave and associated strong front will
slowly approach the panhandle Wednesday and Wednesday night. This
front will once again be accompanied by strong moisture transport
with naefs ensemble integrated moisture transport values between 4
and 5 standard deviations above normal. Southerly flow in the h85
to h7 layer progged around 50-60kt and these favorable
orographics will combine with strong WAA to produce yet another
period of heavy rainfall from late Wednesday through Wednesday
night.

Winds will also be on the increase Wednesday especially over the
outside waters. Barrier jet formation Wednesday will lead to gale
force easterlies along the northeast gulf coast. As the front
pushes east on Wednesday night, gales will spread into the
remainder of the offshore waters with small craft se'ly winds on
the inside waters. Gusty winds will also develop along the outer
coastal land areas with 40 mph gusts likely in places such as
yakutat and sitka Wednesday evening.

Model spread becomes more significant as we head into Thursday
regarding the position of the front but still looks to be a very
warm and wet period.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday... The upper level ridge
extending into british columbia, which has contributed to the
blocking pattern and warmer temperatures we have seen as of late,
will finally begin to break down and push east. This should
provide an opportunity for additional shortwaves to transition
east and impact the panhandle, leading to a fairly active pattern
and one that should remain wet; the position of these shortwaves
will continue to pull in subtropical moisture. Model analysis
continues to show anomalously high precipitable water values with
each of these passing systems, so we're not seeing any significant
periods of drying out in the long term.

Most of the major models agree that a strong shortwave will
develop near the aleutian islands on Friday, and an associated
weather front will lift northeast and impact the panhandle on
Saturday. As this shortwave continues to lift northeast, an upper
level trough will begin to build in aloft over our area and
should provide some assistance with lowering temperatures across
our area. The naefs currently shows a decreasing trend in
temperatures continuing into the early part of next week, with
temperatures nearing normal or even slightly below normal for
this time of year. The GEFS is also following this trend with
temperatures as well, which led to higher confidence in adjusting
our temperature forecast.

After the Saturday timeframe, most of the major model solutions
disagree with one another, so we opted not to make any
significant changes to the forecast after this point. However, we
decided that we would lower temperatures a few degrees in the
early part of next week to fit with the pattern shift, as
mentioned previously. For the Thursday through early Saturday
time period, we used a 50 50 blend of the GFS and ECMWF to make
adjustments to the winds and pop fields.

Hydrology Strong warm advection on Wednesday will result in
freezing levels once again rising to between 4 and 6 kft. While
recent warm temps have likely decreased the mountain snow pack
significantly, there will likely be at least some additional snow
melt which will combine with storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches over the northern panhandle to produce rises rivers and
streams. At this time no flooding issues are expected but will
need to monitor smaller streams such as jordan creek near juneau
should heavier rainfall rates develop.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz041>043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-021-022-031>036-053.

Del jjv
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 39 mi87 min E 17 G 25
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 39 mi39 min SE 19 G 29 47°F 1025.7 hPa44°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 70 mi49 min Calm G 1.9 46°F 46°F1024.5 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Klawock - Klawock Airport, AK30 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast47°F46°F97%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from AKW (wind in knots)
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1 day ago6CalmN3NW4N4Calm3NW4CalmCalmSE7S7CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmNE5SE8SE13
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Tide / Current Tables for Cyrus Cove, Sea Otter Sound, Davidson Inlet, Alaska
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Cyrus Cove
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:37 AM AKST     3.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:58 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:16 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:00 AM AKST     11.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:47 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:18 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 03:50 PM AKST     1.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:57 PM AKST     9.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.74.23.33.13.95.57.59.51111.5119.57.45.23.11.81.52.23.75.67.58.89.28.8

Tide / Current Tables for Marble Island, Davidson Inlet, Alaska
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Marble Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:34 AM AKST     2.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:59 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:17 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:57 AM AKST     11.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:47 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:18 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 03:47 PM AKST     1.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:54 PM AKST     8.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.443.13.13.95.57.49.310.711.210.69.27.14.92.91.71.42.13.65.57.38.68.98.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.