Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Naukati Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:15PM Thursday February 22, 2018 1:41 AM AKST (10:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:58AMMoonset 1:26AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 522 Pm Akst Wed Feb 21 2018
Tonight..E wind 10 kt early in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain and snow.
Fri..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances.
Fri night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near ocean entrances.
Sat..SE wind 10 kt becoming w. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naukati Bay, AK
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location: 55.92, -133.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 212339
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
239 pm akst Wed feb 21 2018

Short term Wednesday night to Friday night incoming system
on Thursday and Thursday night has been main focus of the forecast
package. Generally minor changes to the strength of the pops
tonight into Thursday with the low moving through the area. With
the winter storm watch in place were careful to not overall
disrupt the plans.

A rain snow change over line lies along from north of sitka to
near ketchikan, with rain generally southwest of there, while a
snow to wet snow on the north sides. Right now the forecast for
juneau and petersburg wrangell areas are looking like 5 to 9
inches in roughly 12 hours. Will be leaving the watch in effect
for this afternoon rather than making an upgrade as situation is
seeming borderline. Believe one more model will tip the decision
making one way or another.

For Friday and into Saturday after conferring with anchorage we
adjust winds to handle to a transition into the later periods and
adjust for missing data runs to keep a more fluent weather track.

Most of the editing for this area was in the Saturday time block.

Forecast confidence is average.

Long term Friday through Wednesday... As of 9pm Tuesday, we
appear to be heading into a slightly more active and progressive
pattern for the long term. The upper level ridge that will have
been a constant feature up until this point will retreat further
into western canada and weaken as an upper level trough
strengthens over the panhandle on Friday and takes its place.

According to potential temperature analysis, a weak surface low
will develop along the northeast gulf coast using energy from
this upper level feature and slowly move southeast along the se
alaska coastline. This should keep some lingering convective
precipitation going across the panhandle, as forecast soundings
indicate steep lapse rates and plenty of cold air advection as the
low pushes through. An upper level ridge will then fill in behind
this feature Friday night before another shortwave develops out of
mainland alaska on Saturday and impacts the panhandle Saturday
night into Sunday. Deterministic models have come into better
agreement regarding this developing shortwave, but we were
cautious about really going that route with the forecast, as there
is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the position, strength,
and timing of this low. This will be something that bears
watching as we receive more data.

Generally, we opted not to make very many substantial changes to
the long term forecast due to the uncertainty regarding
deterministic model solutions. We predominantly worked with the
12z Friday to 12z Saturday period using a combination of the gfs
and nam. We also added in nbm for changes to pop and to decrease
temperatures in the later periods to be in line with model
spreads, and we used gem for snow ratios and subsequent snow
amounts.

Aviation Flight conditions for Wednesday evening will beVFR
across southeast alaska. Conditions will deteriorate overnight
from the northwest. Am expecting northern panhandle ceilings to
fall into the marginal flight rules and visibilities lowering in
the snow. Will also see this shift southward during the day before
the afternoon.

Marine No marine hazards through tonight with small craft
advisories starting to arrive for the southern outside waters.

Winds will be increasing during the day Thursday, so northcentral
inner channels increasing to 25 kt with lynn canal climbing to 35
kt by late afternoon.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter storm watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night for akz025-026.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz012-013.

Small craft advisory for pkz021-022-031-032-034-041-043-051-052.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz042.

Bezenek voveris
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDXA2 39 mi30 min NNE 4.1 G 6 37°F 1028.7 hPa31°F
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 39 mi32 min ESE 8 G 9.9 35°F 1027.8 hPa35°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 70 mi42 min Calm G 1 34°F 40°F1028.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Klawock - Klawock Airport, AK30 mi49 minE 37.00 miLight Rain34°F34°F100%1029.1 hPa

Wind History from AKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm3CalmNW3NE3NW3CalmCalmS4S4SW3S34S4S4SW3SW4S6S5SE6S3CalmCalmE3
1 day ago--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS33------Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNE3N3NE5NE43--NE7NE44NE5NE3NE5N3--CalmNE4NE5N3Calm--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cyrus Cove, Sea Otter Sound, Davidson Inlet, Alaska
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Cyrus Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:26 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:28 AM AKST     10.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:58 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:15 AM AKST     1.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:13 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:20 PM AKST     8.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:59 PM AKST     3.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:09 PM AKST     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.95.989.810.810.89.885.83.72.21.51.72.94.66.37.88.58.47.56.14.63.53.1

Tide / Current Tables for Marble Island, Davidson Inlet, Alaska
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Marble Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:26 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:25 AM AKST     10.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:58 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM AKST     1.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:13 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:17 PM AKST     8.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:56 PM AKST     2.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:09 PM AKST     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.95.87.99.610.610.59.47.75.53.521.31.62.84.56.27.58.287.15.84.43.33

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.