Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Coffman Cove, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:11PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 6:45 AM AKST (15:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:08AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 347 Am Akst Tue Feb 20 2018
Today..Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tonight..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coffman Cove, AK
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location: 56.02, -132.92     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 201416
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
516 am akst Tue feb 20 2018

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ... Relatively quiet
short term forecast period. Main feature today and tonight will be
a short wave that will ride over the top of an upper ridge axis
located over the interior. This feature can be seen pushing east
across the interior on satellite imagery as of this morning.

Passage over through the ridge will weaken the trough and by the
time it begins moving south along the back side of the ridge,
precipitation will be greatly diminished. What does survive the
transit through the ridge will fall primarily over canada east of
the coast mountains. Still, we have included scattered showers
for the haines and skagway zones later this afternoon with only
isolated showers elsewhere. As this weak disturbance departs to
the southeast Tuesday night, the region will become dominated by
high pressure centered near 50n 150w. Mostly clear skies for most
of the panhandle tonight will result in another colder than normal
night. Wednesday will begin sunny, but increasing cloudiness is
expected as the day wears on in advance of a front that will
arrive later in the week.

There will be a modest increase in winds in the wake of the short
wave as it passes over the forecast area. This will result from
high pressure building in on the heels of the weak surface low and
trailing inverted trough. Look for enhanced winds out of
disenchantment bay late this evening and small craft northerlies
over lynn canal late tonight into early Wednesday morning. There
will also be small craft northwesterlies over southern coastal zone
41 from late tonight through around noon on Wednesday. Elsewhere
on the inside, marine winds are expected to be 15 kts or less.

Updated pressure with a blend of nam, gem, gfs, and ECMWF based on
good model agreement. Net result was little to no change in
forecast winds. Pop and QPF unchanged. Slight reduction made to
daytime highs. Mixes changes by a degree or two for overnight
lows. Overall confidence is average to above average.

Long term Thursday through Monday as of 9 pm Monday the
persistent area of high pressure over the gulf is looking to break
down by mid to late week, as a strong low will have enough energy
to override the ridge. Most of our focus for tonight were
adjustments made to Thursday's system. Saturday's shortwave has
pretty much become non-existent at this point. But, another
shortwave will pass through the gulf Sunday into Monday and the
ridge will once again set up over the gulf.

Overall, the GFS and ECMWF were once again similar in pattern
placement. The GFS has been fairly consistent in amplifying the
low crossing the gulf, in which the timing has now shifted in time
later on Thursday into Friday. After Friday, model consistency
greatly decreases and used mostly wpc for the long range.

With a focus on Thursday's system, winds were increased throughout
the inner channels with an earlier shift to southerly winds ahead
of the low on Thursday morning. Then many locations will see a
wind shift to wsw with the main front later in the day, including
gale force winds over the outside waters. Then as the low center
passes south over the area during Friday winds will shift back out
of the north. Friday has the potential to be a strong outflow
event as the wave exits.

Thursday has some precip concerns, as snow could potentially
change to rain. There is the possibility of warning-level snow
amounts for juneau and petersburg, but this will be highly dependent
on temperatures and whether any mixing occurs. The minimum
temperature for Thursday night was raised to near 30's. The gfs
from bufkit was showing most precipitation as rain for Thursday
night, however. Most location will see at least some snow, but the
outer coast is most likely to see a change to rain. Stay tuned
to forecast updates on this developing system. A blend was used
to increase pop's for Thursday and nam GFS for qpf.

Confidence has increased somewhat, as models are having better
grasp of this progressive pattern even if some timing differences
still exist.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-041.

Fritsch ferrin ss
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 12 mi36 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 29°F 1025.5 hPa29°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 84 mi46 min Calm G 1.9

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Klawock - Klawock Airport, AK33 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair22°F19°F92%1026.3 hPa

Wind History from AKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE43--NE7NE44NE5NE3NE5N3--CalmNE4NE5N3Calm--Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN63N4NE4NE533NW6----CalmN3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N3
2 days agoNE13
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64N7NE645N7
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Tide / Current Tables for Lake Bay, Alaska
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Lake Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:26 AM AKST     16.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:07 AM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM AKST     1.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:38 PM AKST     14.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:06 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:30 PM AKST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:06 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.611.414.41615.913.910.56.63.31.51.63.46.49.812.814.614.813.210.26.53.31.41.43

Tide / Current Tables for Exchange Cove, Alaska
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Exchange Cove
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:25 AM AKST     15.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:07 AM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:28 AM AKST     1.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:37 PM AKST     14.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:07 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:33 PM AKST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:07 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.210.713.615.11513.19.96.33.31.51.63.269.21213.713.912.49.66.23.21.41.32.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.