Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Coffman Cove, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:40PM Thursday October 19, 2017 7:19 PM AKDT (03:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:08AMMoonset 6:12PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 343 Pm Akdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Tonight..Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt late. Seas 2 feet or less building to 4 ft late, except seas 7 ft near ocean entrances.
Fri..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances.
Fri night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances.
Sat..E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of interior passes. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Sat night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Sun..SE wind 25 kt becoming sw. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..SE wind 25 kt becoming sw. Seas 5 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coffman Cove, AK
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location: 56.02, -132.92     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 192232
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
232 pm akdt Thu oct 19 2017

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ... Rain showers
continue over much of the panhandle this afternoon with more
expected tonight, tomorrow, and Friday night. Overnight lows over
the far northern inner channels and northeast gulf coast are
forecast to be low enough that an overnight rain snow mix is
possible during this short term forecast period, particularly for
Friday night. 1000-850 and 1000-500 thickness numbers as well as
850mb temps are all indicating this possibility as well.

Nonetheless, so low elevations expected yet. Not a lot of QPF in
the forecast for the haines or klondike highways, so accumulations
there are less than an inch for any given 12-hour period.

Eaglecrest may see as much as an inch tonight and Friday night.

Satellite imagery is very clearly convective and this is borne out
in model data. Convective parameters were really quite high for
the coastal waters and the dixon entrance. Even so, most observed
lightning today was confined to hecate strait and coastal british
columbia. As low pressure over the northern and eastern gulf
weakens, a ridge will build in first from the west and then from
the south, causing the atmosphere to begin stabilizing by Friday
afternoon. A high end gale force front, will then approach from
the west late Friday night to finish the stabilization process,
but will bring its own complications in the form of strong marine
winds and windy conditions along the southern outer coast. At
present, am expecting strong wind gusts to have begun by late
Friday night.

Used a blend of GFS and ECMWF for updates to the pressure field
through Friday night. Model divergence beyond that time was judged
too severe to make any changes to the existing forecast with any
confidence. Used GFS as a foundation for winds through Friday
night. Also used GFS for pop and qpf. Very little change to temps
with some minor adjustments to snow levels. Overall forecast
confidence is average.

Long term Saturday through Thursday model agreement is fair
for the weekend, then they differ quite a bit next week. Main
issue is timing of systems moving across the npac, potential for
at least 1 tropical system getting into the westerlies, and
interaction between these systems and an upper trof over W ak.

Decided to use the 12z 18 ECMWF to handle sat, then went with
mainly wpc for Sun onward.

First main system will be a complex low moving into the gulf by
sat. Looking like an occluded front will move N across the area
sat but will weaken as it moves across the N half of the area.

This front will most likely bring at least gale force winds with
it over the gulf, with at least SCA level and possibly gale force
winds to mainly the more e-w inner channels. Should see some rain
with the front sat, although as front weakens over the n, precip
may become more spotty as it encounters offshore low level flow.

The main low appears like it will move to the far n-central gulf
by late Sat night, then weaken there sun. As this happens, looking
more showery for the area especially later sun.

While model agreement is not good next week, they suggest at least
1 strong system will affect the area. This is when some effect
from what will be remnant of typhoon lan will come into play. The
model timing on how fast the typhoon moves into the westerlies
varies somewhat, with GFS gem faster than the ec by about 1 day.

(of interest... The joint typhoon warning center timing is right
in the middle of the 2 extremes) it is this feature that the
gfs gem spins up into a powerful storm S of the aleutians early
next week, then moves it into the gulf by late week. Ec also shows
a fairly strong system but it does not have remnants of lan in
it, and is somewhat weaker than the GFS gem. Still plenty of time
to monitor this situation. In between this larger system and the
one over the weekend, models suggest another low may try to move
ne into the gulf early next week but vast model differences exist
on this, so later forecasts may need to be updated to reflect this
system more than current forecast has it.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz041>043.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz022-051-052.

Fritsch rwt
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 12 mi70 min SSE 9.9 G 11 46°F 984.1 hPa42°F
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 64 mi58 min SW 5.1 G 11
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 84 mi50 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 43°F 49°F986.7 hPa

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Klawock - Klawock Airport, AK33 mi27 minS 54.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist45°F42°F90%986.7 hPa

Wind History from AKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE8NE8
G14
NE5N6NE7NE4NE6NE7
G17
--NE4NE4NE6NE94NE6NE6NE6NE7CalmCalmW4S3S5
1 day agoS533SE8SE10
G17
CalmNE6NE8E10
G19
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G15
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G20
NE6--Calm5N9
G15
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G18
NE7NE8
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2 days agoCalmN4W3CalmCalmE3CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmS5S5S6CalmS3S5S5S4S7S6SE6SE5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Lake Bay, Alaska
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Lake Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM AKDT     16.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM AKDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:32 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM AKDT     New Moon
Thu -- 01:18 PM AKDT     17.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:12 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:25 PM AKDT     -1.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
15.116.515.8138.84.41.20.11.24.28.412.615.917.617.114.410.15.21.1-1.1-0.91.35.19.4

Tide / Current Tables for Exchange Cove, Alaska
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Exchange Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:10 AM AKDT     15.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM AKDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:33 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM AKDT     New Moon
Thu -- 01:17 PM AKDT     16.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:40 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:12 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:28 PM AKDT     -1.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
14.315.714.912.38.44.31.20.11.13.97.911.915.116.716.213.79.651.1-1.1-11.14.78.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.